• Title/Summary/Keyword: Temperature Modeling

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Bayesian structural equation modeling for analysis of climate effect on whole crop barley yield (청보리 생산량의 기후요인 분석을 위한 베이지안 구조방정식 모형)

  • Kim, Moonju;Jeon, Minhee;Sung, Kyung-Il;Kim, Young-Ju
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.331-344
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    • 2016
  • Whole Crop Barley (WCB) is a representative self-sufficient winter annual forage crop, along with Italian Ryegrass (IRG), in Korea. In this study, we examined the path relationship between WCB yield and climate factors such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration using a structural equation model. A Bayesian approach was considered to overcome the limitations of the small WCB sample size. As prior distribution of parameters in Bayesian method, standard normal distribution, the posterior result of structural equation model for WCB, and the posterior result of structural equation model for IRG (which is the most popular winter crop) were used. Also, Heywood case correction in prior distribution was considered to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters; in addition, the best prior to fit the characteristics of winter crops was identified. In our analysis, we found that the best prior was set by using the results of a structural equation model to IRG with Heywood case correction. This result can provide an alternative for research on forage crops that have hard to collect sample data.

Thermal Behavior and Crystallographic Characteristics of an Epitaxial C49-$TiSi_2$ Phase Formed in the Si (001) Substrate by $N_2$Treatment (Si (001) 기판에서 $N_2$처리에 의해 형성된 에피택셜 C49-$TiSi_2$상의 열적 거동과 결정학적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Jun-Mo;Lee, Wan-Gyu;Park, Tae-Soo;Lee, Tae-Kwon;Kim, Joong-Jung;Kim, Weon;Kim, Ho-Joung;Park, Ju-Chul;Lee, Soun-Young
    • Korean Journal of Materials Research
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.88-93
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    • 2001
  • The thermal behavior and the crystallographic characteristics of an epitaxial $C49-TiSi_2$ island formed in a Si (001) substrate by $N_2$, treatment were investigated by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). It was found from the analyzed results that the epitaxial $C49-TiSi_2$ was thermally stable even at high temperature of $1000^{\circ}C$ therefore did not transform into the C54-stable phase and did not deform morphologically. HRTEM results clearly showed that the epitaxial $TiSi_2$ phase and Si have the orientation relationship of (060)[001]$TiSi_2$//(002)[110]Si, and the lattice strain energy at the interface was mostly relaxed by the formation of misfit dislocations. Furthermore, the mechanism on the formation of the epitaxial $_C49-TiSi2$ in Si and stacking faults lying on the (020) plane of the C49 Phase were discussed through the analysis of the HRTEM image and the atomic modeling.

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Geomechanical Stability of Underground Lined Rock Caverns (LRC) for Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) using Coupled Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical Analysis (열-수리-역학적 연계해석을 이용한 복공식 지하 압축공기에너지 저장공동의 역학적 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Hyung-Mok;Rutqvist, Jonny;Ryu, Dong-Woo;Synn, Joong-Ho;Song, Won-Kyong
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.394-405
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we applied coupled non-isothermal, multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical numerical modeling using TOUGH-FLAC coupled analysis to study the complex thermodynamic and geomechanical performance of underground lined rock caverns (LRC) for compressed air energy storage (CAES). Mechanical stress in concrete linings as well as pressure and temperature within a storage cavern were examined during initial and long-term operation of the storage cavern for CAES. Our geomechanical analysis showed that effective stresses could decrease due to air penetration pressure, and tangential tensile stress could develop in the linings as a result of the air pressure exerted on the inner surface of the lining, which would result in tensile fracturing. According to the simulation in which the tensile tangential stresses resulted in radial cracks, increment of linings' permeability and air leakage though the linings, tensile fracturing occurred at the top and at the side wall of the cavern, and the permeability could increase to $5.0{\times}10^{-13}m^2$ from initially prescribed $10{\times}10^{-20}m^2$. However, this air leakage was minor (about 0.02% of the daily air injection rate) and did not significantly impact the overall storage pressure that was kept constant thanks to sufficiently air tight surrounding rocks, which supports the validity of the concrete-lined underground caverns for CAES.

User-Centered Climate Change Scenarios Technique Development and Application of Korean Peninsula (사용자 중심의 기후변화 시나리오 상세화 기법 개발 및 한반도 적용)

  • Cho, Jaepil;Jung, Imgook;Cho, Wonil;Hwang, Syewoon
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.13-29
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    • 2018
  • This study presented evaluation procedure for selecting appropriate GCMs and downscaling method by focusing on the climate extreme indices suitable for climate change adaptation. The procedure includes six stages of processes as follows: 1) exclusion of unsuitable GCM through raw GCM analysis before bias correction; 2) calculation of the climate extreme indices and selection of downscaling method by evaluating reproducibility for the past and distortion rate for the future period; 3) selection of downscaling method based on evaluation of reproducibility of spatial correlation among weather stations; and 4) MME calculation using weight factors and evaluation of uncertainty range depending on number of GCMs. The presented procedure was applied to 60 weather stations where there are observed data for the past 30 year period on Korea Peninsula. First, 22 GCMs were selected through the evaluation of the spatio-temporal reproducibility of 29 GCMs. Between Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) and Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM) methods, SQM was selected based on the reproducibility of 27 climate extreme indices for the past and reproducibility evaluation of spatial correlation in precipitation and temperature. Total precipitation (prcptot) and annual 1-day maximum precipitation (rx1day), which is respectively related to water supply and floods, were selected and MME-based future projections were estimated for near-future (2010-2039), the mid-future (2040-2069), and the far-future (2070-2099) based on the weight factors by GCM. The prcptot and rx1day increased as time goes farther from the near-future to the far-future and RCP 8.5 showed a higher rate of increase in both indices compared to RCP 4.5 scenario. It was also found that use of 20 GCM out of 22 explains 80% of the overall variation in all combinations of RCP scenarios and future periods. The result of this study is an example of an application in Korea Peninsula and APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) can be utilized in various areas and fields if users want to apply the proposed procedure directly to a target area.

Study of a Recurring Anticyclonic Eddy off Wonsan Coast in Northern Korea Using Satellite Tracking Drifter, Satellite Ocean Color and Sea Surface Temperature Imagery (위성원격탐사를 이용한 동해 원산연안의 재발생 와동류 연구)

  • 서영상;장이현;김정희
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.211-220
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    • 2000
  • Even though recurring eddies at the terminal end of the East Korean Warm Current have been identified in the thermal infrared imagery from the NOAA/AVHRR sensor and ocean color data from Orbview-2/SeaWiFS sensor, it is difficult to make observation in the field regarding recurring eddies located around the Wonsan coastal area in North Korea. But we could get in situ data related to an eddy from an ARGOS satellite tracking drifter trapped in the eddy on January 4th, 1999. An ARGOS drifter, a NOAA satellite tracked buoy was trapped by the eddy during January 4th.March 18, 1999. The ARGOS drifter rotated 10 times per 72 days on the edge of the eddy located at $39^{\circ}N$, $129^{\circ}E$. The diameter of the eddy was about 100 km. The horizontal rotation velocity of the recurring cold-core anti-cyclonic eddy was 1.53 km/h(42 cm/sec). The sea surface temperatures of the eddy varied from $14.7^{\circ}C$ on January 5, 1999 to $9.6^{\circ}C$ on March 18,1999. To study the mechanism of the recurring eddy. we tried to find out the relationship between the vector of the drifter moving in the eddy and the wind vector in Sokcho and Ulleung Island located near the eddy in southern Korea, and the difference in sea level between Ulleung Island and Mukho. We hope the results of this study would be useful for calibration and validation data of simulation and numerical modeling studies of the recurring eddy.

Optimization of Processing Conditions for Making a Black Ginger and Design Mixture for Black Ginger Drinks (흑생강 제조 공정 최적화 및 기능성 흑생강 음료 제조)

  • Ban, Young-Ju;Baik, Moo-Yeol;Hahm, Young-Tae;Kim, Hye-Kyung;Kim, Byung-Yong
    • Food Engineering Progress
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.112-117
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    • 2010
  • Black ginger, obtained from steaming and drying process, provides the various functional properties. This study was performed to investigate the optimum processing conditions for black ginger with high content of biologically active substance such as anti-oxidations. Optimum processing conditions such as temperature and time for black ginger was determined by response surface methodology (RSM) with manufacturing process and functionality. The optimum steaming condition was determined 6 hours at 93.2$^{\circ}C$, and 82.7 mg/L DPPH scavenging activities was obtained at this condition. The black ginger drink was made with black ginger extracts, Japanese apricot, and honey. Interaction effects of these ingredients were investigated by modified distance based on design and analyzed by linear, nonlinear regression model, and RSM. The optimization of mixture ratio was made by statistical modeling using DPPH scavenging activities and sensory properties which are the important target constraints in drink. Total flavonoids showed a linear canonical form, while preference and antiradical activity showed a nonlinear canonical form indicating the higher interaction among mixtures. The response trace plot revealed that antiradical activity, sensory properties and total flavonoids were quite sensitive to the drink blending. The optimum formulation of the drink was set at 14.2% of black ginger extracts, 5% of Japanese apricot, and 10.8% honey.

Numerical Modeling for Effect on Bund Overtopping Caused by a Catastrophic Failure of Chemical Storage Tanks (저장시설의 순간 전량 방출 시 방류벽의 월파 효과에 대한 수치모델링)

  • Min, Dong Seok;Phark, Chuntak;Jung, Seungho
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.42-50
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    • 2019
  • As the industry develops in Korea, the use of hazardous chemicals is increasing rapidly and chemical accidents are increasing accordingly. Most of the chemical accidents are caused by leaks of hazardous chemicals, but there are also accidents in which all the substances are released instantaneously due to sudden high temperature/pressure or defection of the storage tanks. This is called catastrophic failure and its frequency is very low, but consequence is very huge when it occurs. In Korea, there were 15 casualties including three deaths due to catastrophic rupture of water tank in 2013, and 64 instances of failures from 1919 to 2004 worldwide. In case of catastrophic failure, it would be able to overflow outside the bund that reduces the evaporation rate and following consequence. This incident is called overtopping. Overseas, some researchers have been studying the amount of external overflow depending on bund conditions in the event of such an accident. Based on the previous research, this study identified overtopping fraction by condition of bund in accordance with Korea Chemicals Controls Act Using CFD simulation. As a result, as the height increases and the distance to the facility decreases while meeting the minimum standard of the bund capacity, the overtopping effect has decreased. In addition, by identifying the effects of overtopping according to atmospheric conditions, types of materials and shapes of bunds, this study proposes the design of the bund considering the effect of overtopping caused by catastrophic failure with different bund conditions.

Development of a Dynamic Downscaling Method using a General Circulation Model (CCSM3) of the Regional Climate Model (MM5) (전지구 모델(CCSM3)을 이용한 지역기후 모델(MM5)의 역학적 상세화 기법 개발)

  • Choi, Jin-Young;Song, Chang-Geun;Lee, Jae-Bum;Hong, Sung-Chul;Bang, Cheol-Han
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2011
  • In order to study interactions between climate change and air quality, a modeling system including the downscaling scheme has been developed in the integrated manner. This research focuses on the development of a downscaling method to utilize CCSM3 outputs as the initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model, MM5. Horizontal/vertical interpolation was performed to convert from the latitude/longitude and hybrid-vertical coordinate for the CCSM3 model to the Lambert-Conformal Arakawa-B and sigma-vertical coordinate for the MM5 model. A variable diagnosis was made to link between different variables and their units of CCSM and MM5. To evaluate the dynamic downscaling performance of this study, spatial distributions were compared between outputs of CCSM/MM5 and NRA/MM5 and statistic analysis was conducted. Temperature and precipitation patterns of CCSM/MM5 in summer and winter showed a similar pattern with those of observation data in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. In addition, statistical analysis presented that the agreement index (AI) is more than 0.9 and correlation coefficient about 0.9. Those results indicate that the dynamic downscaling system built in this study can be used for the research of interaction between climate change and air quality.

An Assessment of Applicability of Heat Waves Using Extreme Forecast Index in KMA Climate Prediction System (GloSea5) (기상청 현업 기후예측시스템(GloSea5)에서의 극한예측지수를 이용한 여름철 폭염 예측 성능 평가)

  • Heo, Sol-Ip;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Ryu, Young;Kang, Hyun-Suk;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Kim, Yoonjae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2019
  • This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.

Impacts of Local Meteorology caused by Tidal Change in the West Sea on Ozone Distributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (서해 조석현상에 따른 국지기상 변화가 수도권 오존농도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Sung Min;Kim, Yoo-Keun;An, Hye Yeon;Kang, Yoon-Hee;Jeong, Ju-Hee
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.341-356
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the impacts of local meteorology caused by tidal changes in the West Sea on ozone distributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) were analyzed using a meteorological model (WRF) and an air quality (CMAQ) model. This study was carried out during the day (1200-1800 LST) between August 3 and 9, 2016. The total area of tidal flats along with the tidal changes was calculated to be approximately $912km^2$, based on data provided by the Environmental Geographic Information Service (EGIS) and the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (MOF). Modeling was carried out based on three experiments, and the land cover of the tidal flats for each experiment was designed using the coastal wetlands, water bodies (i.e., high tide), and the barren or sparsely vegetated areas (i.e., low tide). The land cover parameters of the coastal wetlands used in this study were improved in the herbaceous wetland of the WRF using updated albedo, roughness length, and soil heat capacity. The results showed that the land cover variation during high tide caused a decrease in temperature (maximum $4.5^{\circ}C$) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (maximum 1200 m), and an increase in humidity (maximum 25%) and wind speed (maximum $1.5ms^{-1}$). These meteorological changes increased the ozone concentration (about 5.0 ppb) in the coastal areas including the tidal flats. The increase in the ozone concentration during high tide may be caused by a weak diffusion to the upper layer due to a decrease in the PBL height. The changes in the meteorological variables and ozone concentration during low tide were lesser than those occurring during high tide. This study suggests that the meteorological variations caused by tidal changes have a meaningful effect on the ozone concentration in the SMA.