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A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

Effect of Gypsum, Popped Rice Hull and Zeolite on Soil Aggregation in Reclaimed Tideland (간척지 토양에서 석고, 팽화왕겨 및 Zeolite 처리가 토양의 입단형성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Seong-Jo;Baek, Seung-Hwa;Lee, Sang-Uk;Kim, Dae-Geun;Na, Young-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.231-237
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    • 2005
  • Gypsum treated to fine sandy loam increased the fornation of >2 mm aggregates in $1,550kg\;CaSO_4{\cdot}2H_2O\;10a^{-1}$ (Kbfg1) and $3,100kg\;CaSO_4{\cdot}2H_2O\;10a^{-1}$ (Kbfg2) to compare with control, Kc, at 60DAT, and bigger aggregates in general at 90DAT. The higher treatment of gypsum level, the <0.1 mm aggregates were less decreased as in Kbfg1, Kbfg2, and $6,200kg\;CaSO_4{\cdot}2H_2O\;10a^{-1}$ (Kbfg3) and aggregates of 0.25->2 mm were increased with increasing level of gypsum with more effective in Kbfg2 and Kbfg3 at 120DAT. Gypsum treated to silt loam increased aggregates of 2.0-1.0 and 1.0-0.5 mm in $3,100kg\;CaSO_4{\cdot}2H_2O\;10a^{-1}$ (Mbfg2) to compare with control (Mc), at 60DAT. Degrees of aggregation from 0.5-0.25 mm to >2 mm aggregates at 90DAT were distinctly higher. The higher treatment of gypsum level accelerated more aggregation of silt loam soil, and aggregates of 0.5-0.25 mm was most increased in Mbfg2 at 120DAT. Popped rice hulls treated to fine sandy loam increased aggregates of 2.0-1.0 mm in plots of $1,000kg\;10a^{-1}$ (Kbfhl) only to compare with control (Kc), at 60DAT, and aggregates of >2 mm and 2.0-1.0 mm Kbfh1 at 90DAT. At 120DAT, aggregation by popped rice hulls was most effective in Kbfbl pot. Popped rice hulls treated to silt loam increased in aggregates of >2 mm and 2.0-1.0 mm in $2000kg\;10a^{-1}$, Mbfb2 to compare with control, Mc, at 60DAT. Degrees of aggregation by popped rice hulls at 90DAT were higher in $1,000kg\;10a^{-1}$, Mbfh1, and Mbfh2, and at 120DAT was in $3,000kg\;10a^{-1}$, Mbfb3. Zeolite treatment with popped rice hulls, $1,500kg\;10a^{-1}$, increased in >2.0 mm aggregates in $1,000kg\;10a^{-1}$, Kbfbz1, $2,000kg\;10a^{-1}$, Kbfbz2, $3,000kg\;10a^{-1}$, Kbfhz3, and Mbfbz1, $1,000kg\;10a^{-1}$, Mbfbz2, $2,000kg\;10a^{-1}$, and $3,000kg\;10a^{-1}$, Mbthz3, to compare with control (Kc and Mc), at 60DAT. irrespective of soil texture. At 90DAT, >2.0-0.5 mm aggregates increased in Kbfhz1 of fine sandy loam. aggregates of >0.25 mm in $200kg\;10a^{-1}$ (Mbfbz1), $400kg\;10a^{-1}$ (Mbfhz2), $800kg\;10a^{-1}$ (Mbfhz3) of silt loam increased with the level of zeolite treatment. At 120DAT, the effect of zeolite treated to both soils showed the decrease of <0.1 mm aggregates. As the result, soil amendments for soil aggregation was more effective in the order of popped rice hulls+Zeolite > gypsum > popped rice hulls in fine sandy loam, and in the order of gypsum > popped rice huUs+zeolite > popped rice hulls in silt loam, respectively.

Characteristics That Affect Japanese Consumer Preferences for Chrysanthemum (국화 수출 확대를 위한 일본 소비자의 상품 선호도 분석)

  • Lim, Jin Hee;Seo, Ji Yeon;Shim, Myung Syun
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.640-647
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to provide exportation strategy by surveying on preference of Japanese consumers on cut chrysanthemum exported. The survey was conducted two times by a local survey company in Japan, and the surveys were conducted largely on chrysanthemums for casual flowers and the altar. After departmentalizing Japanese consumers per groups the result were analyzed through conjoint and cluster methods, flower colors and shape were used relatively higher rate for selection criteria of flowers in every group in the case of casual flowers. Group 1 comprised of 60 year-old housewives who reside in a small city with high school diploma and annual income less than 300 million yen, and group 2 of 40 year-old housewives who are small city residents with high school diplomas and annual income of 300 million yen show higher rate of use in flower shape than colors. Another group 3 whose members are 50 year-old housewives, small city residents with high school diplomas and annual income of 600 million yen showed higher rate of use colors than the shape for selection criteria of flowers. The consumption characteristics according to the ages of the consumers showed a pronounced tendency. The 40-50 year-old housewives preferred single flowers packed with other flowers, and the 60 year-old housewives double flowers packed with only chrysanthemums. In flower color, the 50-60 year-old housewives preferred white and yellow flowers, and the 40 year-old housewives pink and yellow flowers. Therefore, there are needs for development strategy of new products considering the consumption characteristics of flower shape and color according to the ages of consumer. After analyzing the chrysanthemums for altar by departmentalization of Japanese consumers, every group showed relative higher rate of use for flower shape for selection criteria of flowers. According to the analysis on the consumption characteristics, group 1 which is comprised of 30-40 year-old housewives who reside in small city with high school diplomas and income less than 300 million yen, and the group 2 of 20 year-old housewives who reside in small city with college diplomas and annual income less than 300 million yen. They are very sensitive to the price of the products while the group 3 of 50 year-old housewives who reside in small city with high school diplomas and annual income less than 300 million yen are insensitive to the price. The 30-50 year-old housewives preferred white and pink flowers, and the 20 year-old housewives yellow and pink flowers. In flower shape, the 50 year-old housewives preferred anemone shape, the 30-40 year-old housewives double shape, and the 20 year-old housewives pompon shapes. Therefore, the white, double flowers for the 30-40 year-old housewives and the yellow, pompon flowers for the 20 year-old housewives are needed to be created at the lowest cost, while the white, anemone flowers are needed to created at higher cost with high quality. In light of these results, it is considered that we should understand the types of purchasing products through consumption characteristics of Japanese consumers. Also we should plan, create market-oriented and consumer-oriented products, and should export them in order to expand more exportation.

Gender Differences in Pain in Cancer Patients (성별에 따른 암환자의 통증 차이)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sook;Lee, So-Woo;Yun, Young-Ho;Yu, Su-Jeong;Heo, Dae-Seog
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.14-25
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    • 2001
  • Purpose : To determine whether there exist gender differences in pain in Korean cancer patients and whether the depression and performance that are often expressed differently between men and women with cancer interact with pain. Method : The results of survey were collected from 140 in- and out-patients (78 male and 62 female) who had cancer treatment at one of the university hospital in Seoul for four months from February of 1999. The severity and interference of pain were examined with the self-reported survey based on Korean version of Brief Pain Inventory (BPI-K). Demographic and clinical information for all patient were compiled by reviewing their medical records, and the level of depression was examined with the Korean version of Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-K). Usual statistical methods, e.g., frequences, means and SDs were used to characterize the sample. The chi-square tests for categorical data and t-test for numerical data were used for group comparison. And the correlation between variables were performed using Pearson correlation coefficient. Resuts : 1) The mean scores of the worst pain for last 24-hours measured with the pain severity of BPI-K were 5.77 in male and 6.45 in female. The pain interference of BPI-K in men was in the order of mood (5.49), enjoy (5.36), and work (5.00), and in women were work (7.48), enjoy (7.16), and mood (6.53). 2) In pain severity, significant difference was found between men and women in the average pain for last 24-hours (t=-2.130, P=.035). In pain interference, significant difference was found between men and women in activity (t=-2.450, P=.015), mood (t=-2,321, P=.022), walk (t=-2.762, P=.007), work (t=-4.946, P=.000), relate (t=-2.595, P=.010), sleep (t=-2.071, P=.040), enjoy (t=-3.198, P=.001). 3) It was found that the items of pain and depression are significantly correlated in men but not in women. Men also exhibited higher correlation in the items of pain and performance status than women. Conclusions : Women report significantly greater average pain for last 24-hours and for all items of pain interference than men. Pain and depression are significantly correlated in men. The results of this study suggest that gender differences in pain should be considered for planning effective pain management program.

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반응표면분석에 의한 쇠고기 야채 쌀죽의 이화학적 및 관능적 특성 변화

  • 이용욱;금준석;은종방
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Postharvest Science and Technology of Agricultural Products Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.167.2-168
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    • 2003
  • 현대 사회는 서구적인 식생활의 변화로 인해 조리가 간편하고 조리 시간이 짧은 즉석식품과 영양 기호식품을 동시에 충족시켜주는 음식에 대한 소비가 늘고 있는 실정이다. 또한 최근 미곡의 공급량에 비해서 소비량이 해마다 감소하여 재고미의 증가를 볼 때, 쌀의 새로운 이용방법 모색이 절실히 요망된다. 따라서 쌀의 소비촉진과 현대사회의 소비형태를 접목시켜서 쇠고기와 야채를 이용한 즉석쌀죽을 개발하고자 하였다. 쇠고기, 야채 및 쌀가루를 이용한 soup mix의 최적 배합비를 설정하기 위하여 제조조건에 따라 다르게 제조한 쇠고기 야채 쌀죽의 이화학적 및 관능적 특성에 미치는 변화를 조사하였다. 이때 야채의 배합비에 따른 이화학적 및 관능적 특성을 모니터링 하고자 반응표면분석법 (response surface methodology, RSM)을 이용하였다. 요인변수(Xn)를 쌀의 양에 대한 버섯의 비율 (X$_1$), 당근의 비율 (X$_2$), 대파의 비율 (X$_3$)로 하여 중심합성계획에 따라 17실험구로 구분하여 조리실험을 실시하였고, 반응변수(Yn)는 soup mix를 이용하여 제조한 쇠고기 야채 쌀죽의 이화학적 특성인 색도의 L*값 (Y$_1$), a*값 (Y$_2$), b*값 (Y$_3$), 점도(Y$_4$), 퍼짐성 (Y$_{5}$), 고형분 함량(Y$_{6}$), PH (Y$_{7}$)으로 하였으며 관능적 특성인 색 (Y$_{8}$), 향 (Y$_{9}$), 점성 (Y$_{10}$), 맛 (Y$_{11}$), 전체적인 기호도 (Y$_{12}$)를 종속변수로 하여 회귀분석에 이용하였다. 회귀분석에 의한 모델식의 예측에는 SAS (statistical analysis system)program을 사용하였으며, 3차원 반응표면 분석법으로 해석하였다. 야채의 배합비에 따라 제조한 쇠고기 야채 쌀죽의 물리적 특성인 색도의 L*, a*, b* 값에 대한 반응표면 회귀식의 $R^2$은 각각 0.6098(p> 0.05), 0.8803 (p <0.05), 0.6781(p> 0.05)로서 b값에 있어서 그 유의성이 5%수준에서 인정되어 b값에 미치는 영향이 크다는 것을 알 수 있었다. L*값은 63-68사이로, a*값은 0.13에서 -0.89사이를 b*값은 2-5값 사이에서 변화하여 제조한 죽의 색이 옅은 황색임을 알 수 있었다. 고형분 함량, 퍼짐성과 pH에 대한 $R^2$은 각각 0.4280, 0.5433과 0.2406임을 볼 때 버섯, 당근, 대파의 비율에 따라 제조한 쇠고기 야채 쌀죽의 고형분 함량, 퍼짐성과 pH는 설정된 범위내에서 그 유의성이 인정되지 않아 큰 영향을 미치지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 관능검사 결과, 색과 향에 대한 반응표면 회귀식의 $R^2$은 각각0.6000과 0.7825이고 P-value는 각각 0.4290과 0.0942로서 5% 수준에서 유의한 상관성이 없음을 확인할 수 있었다. 맛과 점성에 대한 $R^2$은 0.8717과 0.8068이고 P-value는 각각 0.0195 (p <0.05)와 0.0612로서 야채의 배합비에 따라 맛에 있어서 유의확률 5%수준에서 그 유의성이 인정되었으며, 전체적인 기호도에 대한 유의성은 $R^2$이 0.8463이고 P-value는 0.0344 (p <0.05)임을 볼 때, 설정된 범위내에서 야채의 배합비에 따라 제조한 쇠고기 야채 쌀죽의 맛과 기호도에 큰 영향을 미치는 것을 알 수 있었다. 그리고 최대 임계점이 버섯의 첨가량은 0.99%, 당근의 첨가량은 0.97%, 대파의 첨가량은 0.59%에서 최적 반응표면을 나타내었다. 이상의 결과로 볼 때, 야채의 배합비에 따른 맛과 전체적인 기호도에 있어서 그 유의성이 5%수준에서 모두 유의한 상관관계를 보였으며, soup mix 제조시 쌀가루 양에 대한 야채의 최적 배합비는 버섯, 당근, 대파에 있어서 각각 0.99, 0.97과 0.59%임을 알 수 있었다.

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The Status of North Korean Airspace after Reunification (북한 공역의 통일 후 지위)

  • Kwon, Chang-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.287-325
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    • 2017
  • Considering the development of aerospace, military science and technology since the 20th century, the sky is very important for the nation's existence and prosperity. The proverb "Whosoever commands the space commands the world itself!" emphasizes the need for the command of the air. This essay is the first study on the status of airspace after reunification. First, the territorial airspace is over the territory and territorial sea, and its horizontal extent is determined by the territorial boundary lines. Acceptance of the present order is most reasonable, rather than attempting to reconfigure through historical truths about border issues, and it could be supported by neighboring countries in the reunification period. For peace in Northeast Asia, the reunified Korea needs to respect the existing border agreement between North Korea and China or Russia. However, the North Korean straight baselines established in the East Sea and the Yellow Sea should be discarded because they are not available under United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It is desirable for the reunified Korea to redefine the straight baselines that comply with international law and determine the territorial waters up to and including the 12-nautical mile outside it. Second, the Flight Information Region (hereinafter "FIR") is a region defined by the International Civil Aviation Organization (hereinafter "ICAO") in order to provide information necessary for the safe and efficient flight of aircraft and the search and rescue of aircraft. At present, Korea is divided into Incheon FIR which is under the jurisdiction of South Korea and Pyongyang FIR which is under the jurisdiction of North Korea. If North Korea can not temporarily exercise control of Pyongyang FIR due to a sudden change of circumstances, it is desirable for South Korea to exercise control of Pyongyang FIR, and if it is unavoidable, ICAO should temporarily exercise it. In reunified Korea, it is desirable to abolish Pyongyang FIR and integrate it into Incheon FIR with the approval of ICAO, considering systematic management and control of FIR, establishment of route, and efficiency of management. Third, the Air Defense Identification Zone (hereinafter "ADIZ") is a zone that requires easy identification, positioning, and control of aircraft for national security purposes, and is set up unilaterally by the country concerned. The US unilaterally established the Korea Air Defense Identification Area (KADIZ) by the Declaration of Commitment on March 22, 1951. The Ministry of Defense proclaimed a new KADIZ which extended to the area including IEODO on December 13, 2013. At present, North Korea's military warning zone is set only at maritime boundaries such as the East Sea and the Yellow Sea. But in view of its lack of function as ADIZ in relations with China and Russia, the reunified Korea has no obligation to succeed it. Since the depth of the Korean peninsula is short, it is necessary to set ADIZ boundary on the outskirts of the territorial airspace to achieve the original purpose of ADIZ. Therefore, KADIZ of the reunified Korea should be newly established by the boundary line that coincides with the Incheon FIR of the reunified Korea. However, if there is no buffer zone overlapping with or adjacent to the ADIZs of neighboring countries, military tensions may rise. Therefore, through bilateral negotiations for peace in Northeast Asia, a buffer zone is established between adjacent ADIZs.

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The Effect of Active Senior's Career Orientation and Educational Entrepreneurship Satisfaction on Entrepreneurship Intention and Entrepreneurship Preparation Behavior (액티브 시니어의 경력지향성과 창업교육 만족이 창업의지와 창업준비행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Joungbum;Yang, Youngseok;Kim, Myungseuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.285-301
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    • 2020
  • Looking at the problem of aging in the nation from a demographic perspective, it is not a problem of the overall population, but of the structure of the population. It is the baby boomer and post-baby boomers, the largest population in the country. Baby boomers were born between 1955 and 1963, and currently have a population of 7001,333, which is 13.6 percent (as of 2015). The Post-Baby Boomer generation was born between 1964 and 1974, with a total population of 9,567,171, accounting for 18.8 percent of the total population. In particular, baby boomers and post-baby boomers (32.4% of the total population) have begun to retire or will retire soon. The average life expectancy continues to increase due to the development of medical technology, and the falling birth rate of newborns and the declining population of the production population are darkening the domestic economy. In a policy proposal aimed at easing the nation's falling economic growth rate, women's participation rate is as high as Sweden and men's efforts to increase it as high as Japan's, while the elderly rate is desirable to maintain Korea's high level. This is because the expansion of the elderly generation's participation in economic activities could ease a sharp drop in economic growth and reduce the burden of supporting the elderly population. The study, based on this social problem awareness and problem solving plan, looks at the relationship between career orientation and satisfaction in start-up education based on the diverse career base of active seniors, and also suggests the importance of customized start-up education on the diversity of active seniors by clarifying the relationship between them, and suggests the desirable direction of senior start-up policy design, funding, and start-up education. Based on the theoretical background, the concept of five factors was defined: active senior, career-oriented, satisfaction level of start-up education, willingness to start a business, and the concept definition of an active senior, which is particularly key to the baby boomers in their 50s and 60s, is generally regarded as a source of consumption or welfare benefits, but in this study, the concept of active start-up is reflected in the domestic start-up market by young people in their 40s, 50s and 60s. As a result of a hypothesis test. Hypothesis 1 and Hypothesis 5: Career orientation has been verified to affect the willingness to start a business and the behavior of preparation for a start-up. Hypothesis 3: The willingness to start a business has been verified as having an effect between startup preparation actions. Hypothesis 4: The satisfaction level of start-up education has been verified to affect start-up preparation behavior. However, hypothesis 2: The satisfaction level of education for start-ups does not affect the willingness to start a business. Such results can be inferred that satisfaction in start-up education does not have a direct effect on the will to start a business and increases the will to start a business through the influence of personal career orientation.

A Study on Legal and Institutional Improvement Measures for the Effective Implementation of SMS -Focusing on Aircraft Accident Investigation-

  • Yoo, Kyung-In
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.101-127
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    • 2017
  • Even with the most advanced aviation technology benefits, aircraft accidents are constantly occurring while air passenger transportation volume is expected to double in the next 15 years. Since it is not possible to secure aviation safety only by the post aircraft accident safety action of accident investigations, it has been recognized and consensus has been formed that proactive and predictive prevention measures are necessary. In this sense, the aviation safety management system (SMS) was introduced in 2008 and has been carried out in earnest since 2011. SMS is a proactive and predictive aircraft accident preventive measure, which is a mechanism to eliminate the fundamental risk factors by approaching organizational factors beyond technological factors and human factors related to aviation safety. The methodology is to collect hazards in all the sites required for aircraft operations, to build a database, to analyze the risks, and through managing risks, to keep the risks acceptable or below. Therefore, the improper implementation of SMS indicates that the aircraft accident prevention is insufficient and it is to be directly connected with the aircraft accident. Reports of duty performance related hazards including their own errors are essential and most important in SMS. Under the policy of just culture for voluntary reporting, the guarantee of information providers' anonymity, non-punishment and non-blame should be basically secured, but to this end, under-reporting is stagnant due to lack of trust in their own organizations. It is necessary for the accountable executive(CEO) and senior management to take a leading role to foster the safety culture initiating from just culture with the safety consciousness, balancing between safety and profit for the organization. Though a Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's order, "Guidance on SMS Implementation" states the training required for the accountable executive(CEO) and senior management, it is not legally binding. Thus it is suggested that the SMS training completion certificates of accountable executive(CEO) and senior management be included in SMS approval application form that is legally required by "Korea Aviation Safety Program" in addition to other required documents such as a copy of SMS manual. Also, SMS related items are missing in the aircraft accident investigation, so that organizational factors in association with safety culture and risk management are not being investigated. This hinders from preventing future accidents, as the root cause cannot be identified. The Aircraft Accident Investigation Manuals issued by ICAO contain the SMS investigation wheres it is not included in the final report form of Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation. In addition, the US National Transportation Safety Board(NTSB) that has been a substantial example of the aircraft accident investigation for the other accident investigation agencies worldwide does not appear to expand the scope of investigation activities further to SMS. For these reasons, it is believed that investigation agencies conducting their investigations under Annex 13 do not include SMS in the investigation items, and the aircraft accident investigators are hardly exposed to SMS investigation methods or techniques. In this respect, it is necessary to include the SMS investigation in the organization and management information of the final report format of Annex 13. In Korea as well, in the same manner, SMS item should be added to the final report format of the Operating Regulation of the Aircraft and Railway Accident Investigation Board. If such legal and institutional improvement methods are complemented, SMS will serve the purpose of aircraft accident prevention effectively and contribute to the improvement of aviation safety in the future.

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A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

A Study on measurement of scattery ray of Computed Tomography (전산화 단층촬영실의 산란선 측정에 대한 연구)

  • Cho, Pyong-Kon;Lee, Joon-Hyup;Kim, Yoon-Sik;Lee, Chang-Yeop
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.37-42
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Computed tomographic equipment is essential for diagnosis by means of radiation. With passage of time and development of science computed tomographic was developed time and again and in future examination by means of this equipment is expected to increase. In this connection these authors measured rate of scatter ray generation at front of lead glass for patients within control room of computed tomographic equipment room and outside of entrance door for exit and entrance of patients and attempted to ind out method for minimizing exposure to scatter ray. Material and Method : From November 2001 twenty five units of computed tomographic equipments which were already installed and operation by 13 general hospitals and university hospitals in Seoul were subjected to this study. As condition of photographing those recommended by manufacturer for measuring exposure to sauter ray was use. At the time objects used DALI CT Radiation Dose Test Phantom fot Head (${\oint}16\;cm$ Plexglas) and Phantom for Stomache(${\oint}32\;cm$ Plexglas) were used. For measurement of scatter ray Reader (Radiation Monitor Controller Model 2026) and G-M Survey were used to Survey Meter of Radical Corporation, model $20{\times}5-1800$, Electrometer/Ion Chamber, S/N 21740. Spots for measurement of scatter ray included front of lead glass for patients within control room of computed tomographic equipment room which is place where most of work by gradiographic personnel are carried out and is outside of entrance door for exit and entrance of patients and their guardians and at spot 100 cm off from isocenter at the time of scanning the object. The results : Work environment within computed tomography room which was installed and under operation by each hospital showed considerable difference depending on circumstances of pertinent hospitals and status of scatter ray was as follows. 1) From isocenter of computed tomographic equipment to lead glass for patients within control room average distance was 377 cm. At that time scatter ray showed diverse distribution from spot where no presence was detected to spot where about 100 mR/week was detected. But it met requirement of weekly tolerance $2.58{\times}10^{-5}\;C/kg$(100 mR/week). 2) From isocenter of computed tomographic equipment to outside of entrance door where patients and their guardians exit and enter was 439 cm in average, At that time scatter ray showed diverse distribution from spot where almost no presence was detected to spot with different level but in most of cases it satisfied requirement of weekly tolerance of $2.58{\times}10^{-6}\;C/kg$(100 mR/week). 3) At the time of scanning object amount of scatter ray at spot with 100 cm distance from isocenter showed considerable difference depending on equipments. Conclusion : Use of computed tomographic equipment as one for generation of radiation for diagnosis is increasing daily. Compared to other general X-ray photographing field of diagnosis is very high but there is a high possibility of exposure to radiation and scatter ray. To be free from scatter ray at computed tomographic equipment room even by slight degree it is essential to secure sufficient space and more effort should be exerted for development of variety of skills to enable maximum photographic image at minimum cost.

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