• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.18 no.9
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• pp.31-43
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• 2020

Purpose: This study examined a comprehensive model for assessing the success probability of electric vehicle (EV) commercialization in the Korean market. The study identified three risks associated with successful commercialization which were technology, social, policy, environmental, and consumer risk. Research design, methodology: The assessment of the riskiness was represented by a Bayes belief network, where the probability of success at each stage is conditioned on the outcome of the preceding stage. Probability of success in each stage is either dependent on input (i.e., investment) or external factors (i.e., air quality). Initial input stages were defined as the levels of investment in product R&D, battery technology, production facilities and battery charging facilities. Results: Reasonable levels of investment were obtained by expert opinion from industry experts. Also, a survey was carried out with 78 experts consisting of automaker engineers, managers working at EV parts manufacturers, and automobile industry researchers in government think tanks to obtain the conditional probability distributions. Conclusion: The output of the model was the likelihood of success - expressed as the probability of market acceptance - that depended on the various input values. A model is a useful tool for understanding the EV industry as a whole and explaining the likely ramifications of different investment levels.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.107-120
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to analyze the net effect and the combined effect of the determinants of the likelihood of start-up success of researchers at public research institutes. Based on the existing literature, the determinants of the researcher's likelihood of start-up success were reviewed, and a conceptual relationship between the determinants of the likelihood of start-up success was established. Data collection was conducted through a survey targeting researchers at public research institutes, and a total of 114 data were collected. The partial least squares (PLS) analysis method was used to analyze the net effect of the likelihood of start-up success determinant, and the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was used to analyze the combined effect of the likelihood of start-up success determinant. In the PLS analysis results, it was found that technology commercialization probability and creative self-efficacy had a significant positive effect independently on the likelihood of start-up success. In the fsQCA results, we found a combined effect of increasing the likelihood of start-up success when the technology commercialization probability, technology commercialization capability, and creative self-efficacy were high. These research results provide academic implications for understanding the determinants of the likelihood of start-up success of researchers in public research institutes.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.102-109
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• 2021

Since the 4th Industrial Revolution is implemented based on superintelligence, new insights must be provided through convergence studies with other fields to find optimal solutions to create new ideas. In this paper, we intende to present improvement measures for probability and statistical education, which is an athlete's subject on data analysis and processing in the ICT(Information & Communication Technologies) field in the era of superintelligence of the 4th industrial revolution. This paper aims to strengthen competitiveness through early development and commercialization of new technologies by presenting probabilities and statistical curriculums that require linkage in the ICT field. Second, it is necessary to present an educational system diagram linking probabilities and statistics in the ICT field to prepare a mid- to long-term response strategy for ICT education in response to innovative changes. Third, through a survey, we intend to present an effective educational operation plan linking probability and statistics to ICT major subjects by analyzing the perception of probability, statistical importance, and utilization of majors in this field.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.223-233
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• 2016

This study establishes a commercialization strategy for technology that can monitor and detect landslides in real time. An effective commercialization strategy was sought through both qualitative and quantitative analyses. The qualitative analysis considered the business environment in detail, while the quantitative analysis examined technologically strong and weak areas by visualizing the links between IPC (International Patent Classification) code structure and patent applicants. The results from both analyses are considered together, with particular attention paid to the business environment. The resulting integrated analysis comprehensively explores the degree of technological development and the current state of real-time monitoring and detection technology for landslides. The integrated analysis identified complementary assets in the business environment, as there is strong development and many research entities in this area. This suggests positive reinforcement for commercialization with two sub-strategies: (1) exploring demand with complementary assets, and (2) providing technology information for explored demand, which should facilitate successful commercialization. Exploiting this positive reinforcement for technology commercialization could reduce the high uncertainty of the technology and the market, and thus increase the probability of successful commercialization. It is also expected to contribute to long-term success by strengthening collaboration between the supply and demand sides.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.5
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• pp.1051-1065
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• 2020

Safety analysis of nuclear power plant (NPP) especially in accident conditions is a basic and necessary issue for applications and commercialization of reactors. Many previous researches and development works have been conducted. However, most achievements focused on the safety reliability of primary pressure system vessels. Few literatures studied the structural safety of huge concrete structures surrounding primary pressure system, especially for the fourth generation NPP which allows existing of through cracks. In this paper, structural safety reliability of concrete structures of HTR-PM in accidental double-ended break of hot gas ducts was studied by Exceedance Probability Method. It was calculated by Monte Carlo approaches applying numerical simulations by Abaqus. Damage parameters were proposed and used to define the property of concrete, which can perfectly describe the crack state of concrete structures. Calculation results indicated that functional failure determined by deterministic safety analysis was decided by the crack resistance capability of containment buildings, whereas the bearing capacity of concrete structures possess a high safety margin. The failure probability of concrete structures during an accident of double-ended break of hot gas ducts will be 31.18%. Adding the consideration the contingency occurrence probability of the accident, probability of functional failure is sufficiently low.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.9
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• pp.74-82
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• 2016

The term research institute spin-offs refers to new firms created by public research institutes. These spin-offs are different from other start-ups in two respects: on the one hand, they should be located in the Special Research and Development Zones and, on the other hand, these firms are supposed to commercialize the results of public R&D activities. These spin-off firms show higher rates of survival and job creation than general new firms, which means that their contribution to economic growth is not negligible. The present study analyzes the factors affecting research institute spin-offs using a random effect panel logit model and negative binomial model. From previous studies, four elements are identified as playing an important role in the commercialization of public R&D through spin-offs, namely their organizational character, research capability, technological character, and geographical location. The empirical results demonstrate that government research institutes with more researchers and patents are more likely to create new firms. In addition, the location of the institutes significantly affects the probability of their creating spin-offs and their number. When the technological stage and TLO size are considered, however, it turns out that the number of researchers and technological stage play important roles in the spin-offs.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.45-53
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• 1993

This study was directed to an inquiry into a methodology for prioritizing and evaluating R & D alternatives for fuel cell technology, that can provide information for use in future decisions under the current uncertainty. A case study was performed for three cases of fuel cell development under the assumption that basic input data are same. The three cases are the case considering sequential R & D schedule only(Case 1), the case considering equivalent and excluding subprojects(Case 2), and the case allowing parallel efforts for each phase(Case 3). The following results were obtained; the probabilities of success for R & D phases in parallel projects are correlated, the probability of success for each project increases through Case 1, Case 2 and Case 3 successively and the expected dates of commercialization were notably shortened in Case 3.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.129-137
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• 2020

Currently, The autonomous vehicle market is researching and developing four-level autonomous vehicles beyond the commercialization of three-level autonomous vehicles. Because unlike the level 3, the level 4 autonomous vehicle has to deal with an emergency directly, the most important aspect of a four-level autonomous vehicle is its stability. In this paper, we propose an Optimized Vehicle Routing System (OVRS) that determines the route with the lowest probability of an accident at the destination of the vehicle rather than an immediate response in an emergency. The OVRS analyzes road and surrounding vehicle information collected by The RSU communication to predict road hazards, and sets the route for the safer and faster road. The OVRS can improve the stability of the vehicle by executing the route guidance according to the road situation through the RSU on the road like the network routing method. As a result, the RPNN of the ASICM, one of the OVRS modules, was about 17% better than the CNN and 40% better than the LSTM. However, because the study was conducted in a virtual environment using a PC, the possibility of accident of the VPDM was not actually verified. Therefore, in the future, experiments with high accuracy on VPDM due to the collection of accident data and actual roads should be conducted in real vehicles and RSUs.