• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.380-403
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• 2021

Recently, smart factories have gained significant importance since the development of the fourth industrial revolution and the rise of global industrial competition. Therefore, the industries' survival to meet the global market trends requires accurate technological planning. Although, different works are available to investigate forecasting technologies and their influence on the smart factory. However, little significant work is available yet on the analysis of technological trends concerning the smart factory, which is the core focus herein. This work was performed to analyze the technological trends of the smart factory, followed by a detailed investigation of recent research hotspots/frontiers in the field. A well-known topic modeling technique, namely Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), was employed for this study described above. The technological trends were further strengthened with the in-depth analysis of a smart factory-based case study. The findings produced the technological trends which possess significant potential in determining the technological strategies. Moreover, the results of this work may be helpful for researchers and enterprises in forecasting and planning future technological evolution.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.372-380
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• 2010

In this study, we consider a mid-and-long term technological forecasting method based on simulation technique. We, first, gather information about a point of appearance time of new technologies which will be developed in the future and influence relationship among those technologies by Delphi survey. And then we propose a simulation-based heuristic approach searching for the key technology among new technologies which will be developed to attain a normative objective using the Delphi data. We also provide the range of occurrence time for individual technology and define key technologies in this study in contrast that a expert's estimate to occurrence time is only one point in traditional Delphi survey. The information for key technologies which are detected by this procedure gives priorities of R&D planning and aids the R&D planner or project manager in resource allocation.

• IE interfaces
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.53-65
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• 1988

This study was carried out to investigate TF(Technological Forecasting) of ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) by Delphi method. Since the technology of science has been developed rapidly, the necessity of TF, which can predict the future direction and intensities of technological progress, has been gradually recognized in various fields. Therefore the purpose of this study was to explore the normative statistical data so that our business or nation may have better decision-making with the TF of ISDN which will be come into in the 21st century, presenting the appropriate methodology to the application of methods.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.95-105
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• 1995

The error structure of nonlinearized technological growth models, such as, the Pearl curve, the Gompertz curve and the Wei bull growth curve, has zero mean and a constant variance over time. Transformed models, however, like the linearized Fisher-Pry model. the linearized Gompertz growth curve, and the linearized Weibull growth curve have increasing variance from t = 0 to the inflection point.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2923-2934
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• 2009

This paper presents study on technological forecasting of Next-Generation Display technology. Next-Generation Display technology is one of the emerging technologies lately. So databases on patent documents of this technology were analyzed first. And patent analysis was performed for finding out present technology trend. And the forecast for this technology was made by growth curves which were obtained from forecast models using patent documents. In previous study, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass were used for forecasting diffusion of demand in market. Gompertz, Logistic models which were often used for technological forecasting, too. So, two models were applied in this study. But Gompertz, Logistic models only consider internal effect of diffusion. And it is difficult to estimate maximum value of growth in two models. So, Bass model which considers both internal effect and external effect of diffusion was also applied. And maximum value of growth in Gompertz, Logistic models was estimated by Bass model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.167-177
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• 2010

Recent competitive and technological changes during the past decade have accelerated the need for better capital recovery methods. Competition and technology have together shortened the expected lives of property which could not have been forecasted several years ago. Since the usage of technological growth models has been prevalent in various technological forecasting environments, the various forms of growth models have become numerous. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels in predicting future levels of growth. A set of criteria for choosing an appropriate model for technological growth models was developed. Two major characteristics of an S-shaped curve were elected which differentiate the various models; they are the skewness of the curve and underlying assumptions regarding the variance of error structure of the model.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.27-40
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• 2000

Technological forecasting for microprocessor market can provide timely insight into the prospects for significant technological changes in computer hardware as well as software. In this paper, we use bibliometrics to forecast R&D trend on microprocessor technology. Cumulative numbers of US Patents on several generations of microprocessor technology (pipeline, superpipeline, supersclar and VLIW) approved since 1980 are applied to fit diffusion models. Our study results provide both the maximum market potential and the maturity time for each generation of microprocessor technology. Such information is expected to make contribution on making better decisions with regard to strategic corporate planning, R&D management, product development and investment in new technology of microprocessor.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2002

The objective of this paper is to develop a new priority setting algorithm that considers the cross-impact of the future technology alternatives and that satisfies the final goal of the technology management through multi-hierarchy evaluation criteria. By combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, which is a well-known priority setting model, and Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) model, which is a technological forecasting method that considers cross-impact among R&D Items, we developed an Integrated Cross-Impact Hierarchical (CIH) model, which sets the priority by considering technological forecasting and technology dependency simultaneously. A step-by-step numerical example of the model developed here is presented as backup of its practicality.

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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• 2003.02a
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• pp.173-190
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• 2003

Demand forecasting is essential in establishing national and corporate strategy as well as the management of their resource. We forecast demand for multi-generation product using discrete choice model combining diffusion model The discrete choice model generally captures consumers'valuation of the product's qualify in the framework of a cross-sectional analysis. We incorporate diffusion effects into a discrete choice model in order to capture the dynamics of demand for multi-generation products. As an empirical application, we forecast demand for worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) and each of its generations from 1999 to 2005. In so doing, we use the method of 'Technological Forecasting'for DRAM Density and Price of the generations based on the Moore's law and learning by doing, respectively. Since we perform our analysis at the market level, we adopt the inversion routine in using the discrete choice model and find that our model performs well in explaining the current market situation, and also in forecasting new product diffusion in multi-generation product markets.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.223-248
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• 1997

In this study the comparative analysis of four nations' Delphi technological forecasts in information and communication industry was carried out. The nations were Korea, Japan, Germany and France. The reliability test of realization time forecast was also conducted. There were some technologies of which four nations forecast almost same realization time whereas other technologies which four nations showed large variance in forecasting realization time. This means that experts from different nations had different views and prospects on the same technology. It is expected that prospecting international technological trend from this study will contribute to formulating long-range plan for technological development in information and communication in Korea. The result of the comparative analysis of four nations' forecasts in information and communication technology can be summarized as follows. a)As for the realization time, most of the technologies were forecast by four nations to be similar, the differences ranging from one to three years. It was found that on the whole, the longer the time of the forecast, the bigger the variance. The German forecast showed the biggest variance. b)In reliability test Korean was found to be the most reliable and Japan, France and Germany were in descending order. The response of all panel members was found to be more reliable than that of the panel members with high expertise, which means that there were substantially different views among panel members with high expertise on the realization time of the same technology.