• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.41-55
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• 2018

Accidental oil and gas leak is a critical concern for the offshore industry because it can lead to severe consequences and as a result, it is imperative to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the consequences of the leakage in order to assess the risk. Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a technique to identify the consequences that can result from the occurrence of a hazardous event. The probability of occurrence of the consequences is evaluated by the ETA, based on the failure probabilities of the sequential events. Conventional ETA deals with events with crisp failure probabilities. In offshore applications, it is often difficult to arrive at a single probability measure due to lack of data or imprecision in data. In such a scenario, fuzzy set theory can be applied to handle imprecision and data uncertainty. This paper presents fuzzy ETA (FETA) methodology to compute the probability of the outcomes initiated due to oil/gas leak in an actual offshore-onshore installation. Post FETA, sensitivity analysis by Fuzzy Weighted Index (FWI) method is performed to find the event that has the maximum contribution to the severe sequences. It is found that events of 'ignition', spreading of fire to 'equipment' and 'other areas' are the highest contributors to the severe consequences, followed by failure of 'leak detection' and 'fire detection' and 'fire water not being effective'. It is also found that the frequency of severe consequences that are catastrophic in nature obtained by ETA is one order less than that obtained by FETA, thereby implying that in ETA, the uncertainty does not propagate through the event tree. The ranking of severe sequences based on their probability, however, are identical in both ETA and FETA.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.317-335
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• 2016

Concentrically braced steel frames (CBFs) can be optimised during the seismic design process by using lateral loading distributions derived from the concept of uniform damage distribution. However, it is not known how such structures are affected by uncertainties. This study aims to quantify and manage the effects of structural and ground-motion uncertainty on the seismic performance of optimum and conventionally designed CBFs. Extensive nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed on 5, 10 and 15-storey frames to investigate the effects of storey shear-strength and damping ratio uncertainties by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. For typical uncertainties in conventional steel frames, optimum design frames always exhibit considerably less inter-storey drift and cumulative damage compared to frames designed based on IBC-2012. However, it is noted that optimum structures are in general more sensitive to the random variation of storey shear-strength. It is shown that up to 50% variation in damping ratio does not affect the seismic performance of the optimum design frames compared to their code-based counterparts. Finally, the results indicate that the ground-motion uncertainty can be efficiently managed by optimizing CBFs based on the average of a set of synthetic earthquakes representing a design spectrum. Compared to code-based design structures, CBFs designed with the proposed average patterns exhibit up to 54% less maximum inter-storey drift and 73% less cumulative damage under design earthquakes. It is concluded that the optimisation procedure presented is reliable and should improve the seismic performance of CBFs.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.259-272
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• 2022

Rockburst is a dynamic, multivariate, and non-linear phenomenon that occurs in underground mining and civil engineering structures. Predicting rockburst is challenging since conventional models are not standardized. Hence, machine learning techniques would improve the prediction accuracies. This study describes decision based uncertainty models to predict rockburst in underground engineering structures using gradient boosting algorithms (GBM). The model input variables were uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), uniaxial tensile strength (UTS), maximum tangential stress (MTS), excavation depth (D), stress ratio (SR), and brittleness coefficient (BC). Several models were trained using different combinations of the input variables and a 3-fold cross-validation resampling procedure. The hyperparameters comprising learning rate, number of boosting iterations, tree depth, and number of minimum observations were tuned to attain the optimum models. The performance of the models was tested using classification accuracy, Cohen's kappa coefficient (k), sensitivity and specificity. The best-performing model showed a classification accuracy, k, sensitivity and specificity values of 98%, 93%, 1.00 and 0.957 respectively by optimizing model ROC metrics. The most and least influential input variables were MTS and BC, respectively. The partial dependence plots revealed the relationship between the changes in the input variables and model predictions. The findings reveal that GBM can be used to anticipate rockburst and guide decisions about support requirements before mining development.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.113-130
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• 2023

Hybrid simulation (HS) has attracted community attention in recent years as an efficient and effective experimental technique for structural performance evaluation in size-limited laboratories. Traditional hybrid simulations usually take deterministic properties for their numerical substructures therefore could not account for inherent uncertainties within the engineering structures to provide probabilistic performance assessment. Reliable structural performance evaluation, therefore, calls for stochastic hybrid simulation (SHS) to explicitly account for substructure uncertainties. The experimental design of SHS is explored in this study to account for uncertainties within analytical substructures. Both computational simulation and laboratory experiments are conducted to evaluate the pseudo-random Sobol sequence for the experimental design of SHS. Meta-modeling through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is established from a computational simulation of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) structure to evaluate the influence of nonlinear behavior and ground motions uncertainties. A series of hybrid simulations are further conducted in the laboratory to validate the findings from computational analysis. It is shown that the Sobol sequence provides a good starting point for the experimental design of stochastic hybrid simulation. However, nonlinear structural behavior involving stiffness and strength degradation could significantly increase the number of hybrid simulations to acquire accurate statistical estimation for the structural response of interests. Compared with the statistical moments calculated directly from hybrid simulations in the laboratory, the meta-model through PCE gives more accurate estimation, therefore, providing a more effective way for uncertainty quantification.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.303-316
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• 2023

Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제51권1호
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• pp.25-41
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• 2024

The measurement of pile bearing capacity is crucial for the design of pile foundations, where in-situ tests could be costly and time needed. The primary objective of this research was to investigate the potential use of fuzzy-based techniques to anticipate the maximum weight that concrete driven piles might bear. Despite the existence of several suggested designs, there is a scarcity of specialized studies on the exploration of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) for the estimation of pile bearing capacity. This paper presents the introduction and validation of a novel technique that integrates the fire hawk optimizer (FHO) and equilibrium optimizer (EO) with the ANFIS, referred to as ANFIS_FHO and ANFIS_EO, respectively. A comprehensive compilation of 472 static load test results for driven piles was located within the database. The recommended framework was built, validated, and tested using the training set (70%), validation set (15%), and testing set (15%) of the dataset, accordingly. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine the impact of each input on the output. The results show that ANFIS_FHO and ANFIS_EO both have amazing potential for precisely calculating pile bearing capacity. The R² values obtained for ANFIS_FHO were 0.9817, 0.9753, and 0.9823 for the training, validating, and testing phases. The findings of the examination of uncertainty showed that the ANFIS_FHO system had less uncertainty than the ANFIS_EO model. The research found that the ANFIS_FHO model provides a more satisfactory estimation of the bearing capacity of concrete driven piles when considering various performance evaluations and comparing it with existing literature.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제90권1호
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• pp.19-26
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• 2024

In recent years, an increasing number of experimental studies have shown that the practical application of mature active control systems requires consideration of robustness criteria in the design process, including the reduction of tracking errors, operational resistance to external disturbances, and measurement noise, as well as robustness and stability. Good uncertainty prediction is thus proposed to solve problems caused by poor parameter selection and to remove the effects of dynamic coupling between degrees of freedom (DOF) in nonlinear systems. To overcome the stability problem, this study develops an advanced adaptive predictive fuzzy controller, which not only solves the programming problem of determining system stability but also uses the law of linear matrix inequality (LMI) to modify the fuzzy problem. The following parameters are used to manipulate the fuzzy controller of the robotic system to improve its control performance. The simulations for system uncertainty in the controller design emphasized the use of acceleration feedback for practical reasons. The simulation results also show that the proposed H∞ controller has excellent performance and reliability, and the effectiveness of the LMI-based method is also recognized. Therefore, this dynamic control method is suitable for seismic protection of civil buildings. The objectives of this document are access to adequate, safe, and affordable housing and basic services, promotion of inclusive and sustainable urbanization, implementation of sustainable disaster-resilient construction, sustainable planning, and sustainable management of human settlements. Simulation results of linear and non-linear structures demonstrate the ability of this method to identify structures and their changes due to damage. Therefore, with the continuous development of artificial intelligence and fuzzy theory, it seems that this goal will be achieved in the near future.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.267-279
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• 2023

Data modelling and interpretation for structural health monitoring (SHM) field data are critical for evaluating structural performance and quantifying the vulnerability of infrastructure systems. In order to improve the data modelling accuracy, and extend the application range from data regression analysis to out-of-sample forecasting analysis, an improved most likely heteroscedastic Gaussian process (iMLHGP) methodology is proposed in this study by the incorporation of the outof-sample forecasting algorithm. The proposed iMLHGP method overcomes this limitation of constant variance of Gaussian process (GP), and can be used for estimating non-stationary typhoon-induced response statistics with high volatility. The first attempt at performing data regression and forecasting analysis on structural responses using the proposed iMLHGP method has been presented by applying it to real-world filed SHM data from an instrumented cable-stay bridge during typhoon events. Uncertainty quantification and correlation analysis were also carried out to investigate the influence of typhoons on bridge strain data. Results show that the iMLHGP method has high accuracy in both regression and out-of-sample forecasting. The iMLHGP framework takes both data heteroscedasticity and accurate analytical processing of noise variance (replace with a point estimation on the most likely value) into account to avoid the intensive computational effort. According to uncertainty quantification and correlation analysis results, the uncertainties of strain measurements are affected by both traffic and wind speed. The overall change of bridge strain is affected by temperature, and the local fluctuation is greatly affected by wind speed in typhoon conditions.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 1999년도 추계학술대회-지능형 정보기술과 미래조직 Information Technology and Future Organization
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• pp.355-361
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• 1999

An application of case-based reasoning is proposed to build an influence diagram for identifying successful new ventures. The decision to invest in new ventures in characterized by incomplete information and uncertainty, where some measures of firm performance are quantitative, while some others are substituted by qualitative indicators. Influence diagrams are used as a model for representing investment decision problems based on incomplete and uncertain information from a variety of sources. The building of influence diagrams needs much time and efforts and the resulting model such as a decision model is applicable to only one specific problem. However, some prior knowledge from the experience to build decision model can be utilized to resolve other similar decision problems. The basic idea of case-based reasoning is that humans reuse the problem solving experience to solve a new decision. In this paper, we suggest a case-based reasoning approach to build an influence diagram for the class of investment decision problems. This is composed of a retrieval procedure and an adaptation procedure. The retrieval procedure use two suggested measures, the fitting ratio and the garbage ratio. An adaptation procedure is based on a decision-analytic knowledge and decision participants knowledge. Each step of procedure is explained step by step, and it is applied to the investment decision problem in new ventures.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.663-672
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• 2001

Numerous failures in welded connections in steel moment-resisting building frames (SMRF) were observed when buildings were inspected after the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. These observations raised concerns about the effectiveness of such frames for resisting strong earthquake ground motions. The behavior of SMRFs during an earthquake must be assessed using nonlinear dynamic analysis, and such assessments must permit the deterioration in connection strength to capture the behavior of the frame. The uncertainties that underlie both structural and dynamic loading also need to be included in the analysis process. This paper describes the analysis of one of approximately 200 SMRFs that suffered damage to its welded beam-to-column connections from the Northridge Earthquake is evaluated. Nonlinear static and dynamic analysis of this SMRF in the time domain is performed using ground motions representing the Northridge Earthquake. Subsequently, a detailed uncertainty analysis is conducted for the building using an ensemble of earthquake ground motions. Probability distributions for deformation-related limit states, described in terms of maximum roof displacement or interstory drift, are constructed. Building fragilities that are useful for condition assessment of damaged building structures and for performance-based design are developed from these distributions.