• 제목/요약/키워드: Technical risk analysis

검색결과 266건 처리시간 0.027초

Study on Theoretical Models of Regional Humanity Lung Cancer Hazards Assessment

  • Zhang, Chuan;Gao, Xing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.1759-1764
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: To establish the concept of lung cancer hazard assessment theoretical models, evaluating the degree of lung cancer risk of Beijing for regional population lung cancer hazard assessment to provide a basis for technical support. Materials and Methods: ISO standards were used to classify stratified analysis for the entire population, life cycle, processes and socioeconomic management. Associated risk factors were evaluated as lung cancer hazard risk assessment first class indicators. Study design: Using the above materials, indicators were given the weight coefficients, building lung cancer risk assessment theoretical models. Regional data for Beijing were entered into the theoretical model to calculate the parameters of each indicator and evaluate the degree of local lung cancer risk. Results: Adopting the concept of lung cancer hazard assessment and theoretical models for regional populations, we established a lung cancer hazard risk assessment system, including 2 first indicators, 8 secondary indicators and 18 third indicators. All indicators were given weight coefficients and used as information sources. Score of hazard for lung cancer was 84.4 in Beijing. Conclusions: Comprehensively and systematically building a lung cancer risk assessment theoretical model for regional populations in conceivable, evaluating the degree of lung cancer risk of Beijing, providing technical support and scientific basis for interventions for prevention.

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of simply supported steel railway bridges

  • Yilmaz, Mehmet F.;Caglayan, Barlas O.;Ozakgul, Kadir
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2019
  • Fragility analysis is an effective tool that is frequently used for seismic risk assessment of bridges. There are three different approaches to derive a fragility curve: experimental, empirical and analytical. Both experimental and empirical methods to derive fragility curve are based on past earthquake reports and expert opinions which are not suitable for all bridges. Therefore, analytical fragility analysis becomes important. Nonlinear time history analysis is commonly used which is the most reliable method for determining probabilistic demand models. In this study, to determine the probabilistic demand models of bridges, time history analyses were performed considering both material and geometrical nonlinearities. Serviceability limit states for three different service velocities were considered as a performance goal. Also, support displacements, component yielding and collapse limits were taken into account. Both serviceability and component fragility were derived by using maximum likely hood methods. Finally, the seismic performance and critical members of the bridge were probabilistically determined and clearly presented.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment of a typical Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant (NGCCPP) control building

  • A. Can Zulfikar;Seyhan Okuyan Akcan;Ali Yesilyurt;Murat Eroz;Tolga Cimili
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제35권6호
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    • pp.581-591
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    • 2023
  • North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

의사결정을 위한 콘크리트댐 위험요인 분석 (Risk Factor Analysis of Concrete Dam for Decision Making)

  • 임정열;장봉석
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 2006년도 춘계학술발표회 논문집(I)
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    • pp.554-557
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    • 2006
  • For various historical and technical reasons, the safety of dams has been controlled by an engineering standards-based approach, which has been developed over many years, initially for the design of new dams, but increasingly applied over the past few decades to assess the safety of existing dams. And some countries were asked for risk assessment on existing dam, which included structural, hydraulic safety of dam and social risk. Whereas other countries have developed and adapted as an additional tool to assist in decision-making for dam safety management. Dam risk analysis should need the reliability data of dam failures, the past constructed history and management records of existing dam. It is thought with risk analysis method of dams for structural safety management in domestic that suitable to use consider an event tree, fault tree and conditioning indexes method.

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주거부문(住居部門) BTL사업(事業)에서 프로젝트금용의 위험분석(危險分析)에 관한 연구(硏究) (on the Risk Analysis of Project Finance in BTL Project)

  • 송규열;정을규;임칠순
    • 한국주거학회논문집
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    • 제17권6호
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to apply efficiently a successful Project Finance in BTL. To use Project Finance, it is necessary to Risk Analysis of each work step. This Risk Analysis have to repeatedly progress in overall Project Process. The differences between Corporate Finance and Project Finance are remarkably appeared in Risk Allocation and Limited Resource. To use successful Project Finance in construction industry, first, raising project confidence, second, technical : economical : lawful evaluation by Finance Expert, third, Income Guarantee for Lender or Consortium of Lending Banks, forth, Leverage Effect of Project Sponsor must be preceded.

Analysis of the technical status of multiunit risk assessment in nuclear power plants

  • Seong, Changkyung;Heo, Gyunyoung;Baek, Sejin;Yoon, Ji Woong;Kim, Man Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제50권3호
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 2018
  • Since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, concern and worry about multiunit accidents have been increasing. Korea has a higher urgency to evaluate its site risk because its number of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and population density are higher than those in other countries. Since the 1980s, technical documents have been published on multiunit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), but the Fukushima accident accelerated research on multiunit PSA. It is therefore necessary to summarize the present situation and draw implications for further research. This article reviews journal and conference papers on multiunit or site risk evaluation published between 2011 and 2016. The contents of the reviewed literature are classified as research status, initiators, and methodologies representing dependencies, and the insights and conclusions are consolidated. As of 2017, the regulatory authority and nuclear power utility have launched a full-scale project to assess multiunit risk in Korea. This article provides comprehensive reference materials on the necessary enabling technology for subsequent studies of multiunit or site risk assessment.

The Impact of Language on Customer Intentions to Use Localized E-Commerce Websites in Arabic Countries: The Mediating Role of Perceived Risk and Trust

  • HERZALLAH, Fadi;AYYASH, Mohannad Moufeed;AHMAD, Kamsuriah
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.273-290
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    • 2022
  • Localization of e-commerce websites is a useful tool for providing the world with business organizations and money-making enterprises. However, studies on e-Commerce website localization within the language domain are still quite limited. Thus, the study aims to investigate the relationship between the Arabic language and a wide range of e-Commerce website intentions, clarifying the indirect effects of the Arabic language on intentions to use e-Commerce websites using perceived risk and trust as mediating variables, and determining whether trust and perceived risk work as mediating variables between the Arabic language and e-Commerce website intentions. Survey data collated from participants totaling up to 264 has been used to test the research framework. The selection of these participants is based on their experiences employing e-Commerce websites. Structural equation modeling (SEM) through partial least square (PLS) software was used for the data analysis. The results show that the Arabic language, trust, and perceived risk play effective roles for e-Commerce websites adoption. More importantly, trust and perceived risk positively mediate the relationship between the Arabic language and intentions to use e-Commerce websites. Implications of the study's findings and suggestions for further research are discussed.

동맥전환술: 판상돔맥이식 수기변형과 수술사망의 위험인자 (Arterial Switch Operation: The Technical Modification of Coronary Reimplantation and Risk Factors for Operative Death)

  • 성시찬;이형두;김시호;조광조;우종수;이영석
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • 제37권3호
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    • pp.235-244
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    • 2004
  • 동맥전환술은 대혈관전위증이나 Taussig-Bing 기형의 가장 보편적인 수술법으로 인정되고 있다. 동맥전환술 후 수술사망에 영향을 미치는 위험인자와 함께 관상동맥 이식 수기변형의 유효성을 알아보고자 하였다. 1994년부터 2002년 7월까지 동맥전환술을 동아대학교 병원에서 한 명의 외과의에 의하여 시행된 85예의 대혈관전위증과 양대혈관 우심실기시증 환아를 대상으로 후향적 조사를 하였다. 관상동맥이식 수기변형 등 수술(병원)사망에 관여한다고 생각하는 여러 인자들을 다변량 회귀분석을 통해 수술사망에 미치는 위험인자들을 파악하였다. 전체 수술사망(병원사망)은 모두 17예(20%)였으며 수술사망률이 98년 이전은 31.0% (13/42), 98년 이후는 9.3% (4/43)로 감소하였다. 대동맥궁 기형을 동반하지 않은 경우는 전체 사망률이 12.5% (9/72)였으나 동반된 경우는 61.5% (8/13)로 높은 사망률을 보였다. 관상동맥이식 수기변형을 하지 않은 경우 사망률은 28.1%(18/64)를 보인 반면 관상동맥이식 수기변형을 한 경우는 4.8% (1/21)로 많은 사망률의 감소가 관찰되었다. 다변량 회귀분석에서 심폐기가동시간($\geq$ 250분), 대동맥차단시간($\geq$ 150분), 대동맥궁기형이 동반된 경우, 수술 전 사건(event)이 있었던 경우, 개방 관상동맥 이식술(open coronary reimplantation technique)이 수술사망의 위험인자로 파악되었다. 동맥전환술의 수술사망률은 수술시기가 경과함에 따라 감소하였으며, 대동맥궁 기형의 동반과 술 전 사건(event)이 수술사망의 중요 위험인자였다. 비전형적 관상동맥 형태는 수술사망의 위험요소가 아니었으며 관상동맥 이식의 수기변형이 수술사망을 낮추는 데 매우 유효하였던 것으로 생각된다.

Development of a Fully-Coupled, All States, All Hazards Level 2 PSA at Leibstadt Nuclear Power Plant

  • Zvoncek, Pavol;Nusbaumer, Olivier;Torri, Alfred
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.426-433
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    • 2017
  • This paper describes the development process, the innovative techniques used and insights gained from the latest integrated, full scope, multistate Level 2 PSA analysis conducted at the Leibstadt Nuclear Power Plant (KKL), Switzerland. KKL is a modern single-unit General Electric Boiling Water Reactor (BWR/6) with Mark III Containment, and a power output of $3600MW_{th}/1200MW_e$, the highest among the five operating reactors in Switzerland. A Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) analyses accident phenomena in nuclear power plants, identifies ways in which radioactive releases from plants can occur and estimates release pathways, magnitude and frequency. This paper attempts to give an overview of the advanced modeling techniques that have been developed and implemented for the recent KKL Level 2 PSA update, with the aim of systematizing the analysis and modeling processes, as well as complying with the relatively prescriptive Swiss requirements for PSA. The analysis provides significant insights into the absolute and relative importances of risk contributors and accident prevention and mitigation measures. Thanks to several newly developed techniques and an integrated approach, the KKL Level 2 PSA report exhibits a high degree of reviewability and maintainability, and transparently highlights the most important risk contributors to Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) with respect to initiating events, components, operator actions or seismic component failure probabilities (fragilities).

Safety-Economic Decision Making Model of Tropical Cyclone Avoidance Routing on Oceans

  • Liu, Da-Gang;Wang, De-Qiang;Wu, Zhao-Lin
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 2006년도 Asia Navigation Conference
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    • pp.144-153
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    • 2006
  • In order to take TC forecasts from different observatories into consideration, and make quantitative assessment and analysis for avoiding TC routes from the view of safety and cost, a new safe-economic decision making method of TC avoidance routing on ocean was put forward. This model is based on combining forecast of TC trace based on neural networks, technical method to determine the future TC wind and wave fields, technical method of fuzzy information optimization, risk analysis theory, and meteorological-economic decision making theory. It has applied to the simulation of MV Tianlihai's shipping on ocean. The result shows that the model can select the optimum plan from 7 plans, the selected plan is in accordance with the one selected by experienced captains.

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