• Title/Summary/Keyword: Target Probability of Failure

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Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Pervaporation Process for Concentrating Hydrogen Peroxide (과산화수소 농축을 위한 투과증발공정의 정량적 위험성 분석)

  • Jung, Ho Jin;Yoon, Ik Keun;Choi, Soo Hyoung
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.750-754
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    • 2014
  • Quantitative risk analysis has been performed for a pervaporation process for production of high test peroxide. Potential main accidents are explosion and fire caused by a decomposition reaction. As the target process has a laboratory scale, the consequence is considered to belong to Category 3. An event tree has been developed as a model for occurrence of a decomposition reaction in the target process. The probability functions of the accident causes have been established based on the frequency data of similar events. Using the constructed model, the failure rate has been calculated. The result indicates that additional safety devices are required in order to achieve an acceptable risk level, i.e. an accident frequency less than $10^{-4}/yr$. Therefore, a layer of protection analysis has been applied. As a result, it is suggested to introduce inherently safer design to avoid catalytic reaction, a safety instrumented function to prevent overheating, and a relief system that prevents explosion even if a decomposition reaction occurs. The proposed method is expected to contribute to developing safety management systems for various chemical processes including concentration of hydrogen peroxide.

Reliability evaluation of steel truss bridge due to traffic load based on bridge weigh-in-motion measurement

  • Widi Nugraha;Indra Djati Sidi;Made Suarjana;Ediansjah Zulkifli
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.323-336
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    • 2022
  • Steel truss bridge is one of the most widely used bridge types in Indonesia. Out of all Indonesia's national roads, the number of steel truss bridges reaches 12% of the total 17,160 bridges. The application of steel truss bridges is relatively high considering this type of bridge provides advantages in the standardization of design and fabrication of structural elements for typical bridge spans, as well as ease of mobilization. Directorate of Road and Bridge Engineering, Ministry of Works and Housing, has issued a standard design for steel truss bridges commonly used in Indonesia, which is designed against the design load in SNI 1725-2016 Bridge Loading Standards. Along with the development of actual traffic load measurement technology using Bridge Weigh-in-Motion (B-WIM), traffic loading data can be utilized to evaluate the reliability of standard bridges, such as standard steel truss bridges which are commonly used in Indonesia. The result of the B-WIM measurement on the Central Java Pantura National Road, Batang - Kendal undertaken in 2018, which supports the heaviest load and traffic conditions on the national road, is used in this study. In this study, simulation of a sequences of traffic was carried out based on B-WIM data as a moving load on the Australian type Steel Truss Bridge (i.e., Rangka Baja Australia -RBA) structure model with 60 m class A span. The reliability evaluation was then carried out by calculating the reliability index or the probability of structural failure. Based on the analysis conducted in this study, it was found that the reliability index of the 60 m class Aspan for RBA bridge is 3.04 or the probability of structural failure is 1.18 × 10-3, which describes the level of reliability of the RBA bridge structure due to the loads from B-WIM measurement in Indonesia. For this RBA Bridge 60 m span class A, it was found that the calibrated nominal live load that met the target reliability is increased by 13% than stated in the code, so the uniform distributed load will be 7.60 kN/m2 and the axle line equivalent load will be 55.15 kN/m.

Seismic Fragility Evaluation of Chimney Structure in Power Plant by Finite Element Analysis (유한요소 해석을 통한 발전소 연돌 구조물의 지진취약도 분석)

  • Kwon, Gyu-Bin;Kim, Jin-Sup;Kwon, Min-Ho;Park, Kwan-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.276-284
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    • 2019
  • Seismic research on bridges, dams and nuclear power plants, which are infrastructure in Korea, has been carried out since early on, but in the case of structures in thermal power plants, research is insufficient. In this study, a total of 192 dynamic analyzes were performed for 16 actual seismic waves and 12 PGAs. As a result, the probability of failure increased as the PGA value increased for each applied seismic wave, but it was different for each seismic wave. As a result, at 0.22G, the ratio of the compressive limit reached to the limit state was 25% and the ratio of the relative displacement reached the limit state was 13%. So, the probability of collapse due to compressive failure Is higher. Therefore, the fragility curve of the chimney which is the subject of this study can be used as a quantitative basis to determine the limit state of the target structure when an earthquake occurs and to be used for the safety design of the thermal power plants.

Reliability Analysis on Safety Instrumented System by Using Safety Integrity Level for Fire.Explosion Prevention in the Ethyl Benzene Processes (Ethyl Benzene 공정에서 화재.폭발방지를 위하여 안전건전성수준을 이용한 안전장치시스템의 신뢰도 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo;Lee, Su-Kyoung
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.3 s.63
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this work is to analyze quantitatively if the safety instrumented system(SIS) like the pressure safety valves(PSV) in the processes of ethyl benzene plant have been designed relevantly to the safety integrity level because overpressure in the benzene or ethyl benzene columns causes the explosive reactions, fires and reactor explosions. The safety integrity level(SIL) 3 has been adopted as a target level of SIS based on the general data of the Probability of Failure on Demand of PSV, $1.00E-4{\sim}1.00E-3$. The standard model of the reliability has been set up and then the fault tree analysis of it has been carried out to get the PFD of SIS, and the results show 8.97E-04, 5.37E-04, 5.37E-04 for benzene prefractionator column, benzene column and EB column, respectively. Thus, we conclude that the SIS is designed to fulfill the condition of SIL3, and when the partial stroke test for the control valve are carried out every sixth month, the SIS of each column is expected to increase its reliability up to $22{\sim}27%$.

Reliability Analysis and Evaluation of Partial Safety Factors for Sliding of Caisson Breakwaters in Korea (국내 케이슨 방파제의 활동에 대한 신뢰성 해석 및 부분안전계수 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Woo;Suh, Kyung-Duck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.278-289
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    • 2009
  • In the present study, we evaluated the target reliability indices and partial safety factors for caisson sliding of a vertical breakwater. The average of the reliability indices of existing breakwaters was proposed as the target reliability index for the breakwater of normal safety level. The target reliability indices of high and low safety levels were also proposed based on the analysis of breakwaters in Korea and Japan. The partial safety factors were then proposed for each safety level by averaging the values calculated for 12 breakwater crosssections in Korea. The appropriateness of the proposed partial safety factors was partly verified by showing that the reliability index calculated by using the present partial safety factors is located between those of mild and steep bottom slopes of JPHA(2007). The proposed partial safety factors were inversely used to calculate the caisson width and reliability index of existing breakwaters. While the reliability indices of existing breakwaters designed by the deterministic method show a large variation, those designed by the partial safety factor method show a small variation. This indicates that the partial safety factor method allows a consistent design for given target probability of failure.

Stochastic Reliability Analysis of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Subject to Multiple Loads (다중하중에 따른 경사제 피복재의 추계학적 신뢰성 해석)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2012
  • A stochastic reliability analysis model has been developed for evaluating the time-dependent stability performance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters subjected to the multiple loads of arbitrary magnitudes which could be occurred randomly. The initial structural capacities and the damage rates of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters could be estimated as a function of the incident wave height with a given return period by using the modified Hudson's formula and Melby's formula. The structural stability performances of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters could be analyzed in detail through the lifetime reliability investigations according to the limit states such as the serviceability or ultimate limit state and the conditions of multiple loads. Finally, repair intervals for the structural management of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters could quantitatively be evaluated by a new approach suggested in this paper that has been based on the target probability for repair and the accumulated probabilities of failure obtained from the present stochastic reliability analysis model.

Reliability Analysis and Evaluation of Partial Safety Factors for Wave Run-up (처오름에 대한 신뢰성 해석 및 부분안전계수 산정)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.355-362
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    • 2008
  • A reliability model of Level II AFDA is proposed to analyze the wave run-up occurring by the interaction of incident waves and sloped coastal structures. The reliability model may be satisfactorily calibrated by Level III Monte-Carlo simulation. Additionally, the partial safety factors of random variables related to wave run-up can be straightforwardly evaluated by the inverse-reliability method that use influence coefficients and uncertainties of random variables, and target probability of failure. In particular, a design equation for wave run-up is derived in the same form as that of deterministic design method so that the reliability-based design method of Level I may be applied easily. Finally, it is confirmed that results redesigned by the reliability-based design method of Level I with partial safety factors suggested in this paper are satisfactorily compared with results of CEM(2006) as well as those of Level II AFDA.

COLLAPSE PRESSURE ESTIMATES AND THE APPLICATION OF A PARTIAL SAFETY FACTOR TO CYLINDERS SUBJECTED TO EXTERNAL PRESSURE

  • Yoo, Yeon-Sik;Huh, Nam-Su;Choi, Suhn;Kim, Tae-Wan;Kim, Jong-In
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.450-459
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    • 2010
  • The present paper investigates the collapse pressure of cylinders with intermediate thickness subjected to external pressure based on detailed elastic-plastic finite element (FE) analyses. The effect of the initial ovality of the tube on the collapse pressure was explicitly considered in the FE analyses. Based on the present FE results, the analytical yield locus, considering the interaction between the plastic collapse and local instability due to initial ovality, was also proposed. The collapse pressure values based on the proposed yield locus agree well with the present FE results; thus, the validity of the proposed yield locus for the thickness range of interest was verified. Moreover, the partial safety factor concept based on the structural reliability theory was also applied to the proposed collapse pressure estimation model, and, thus, the priority of importance of respective parameter constituting for the collapse of cylinders under external pressure was estimated in this study. From the application of the partial safety factor concept, the yield strength was concluded to be the most sensitive, and the initial ovality of tube was not so effective in the proposed collapse pressure estimation model. The present deterministic and probabilistic results are expected to be utilized in the design and maintenance of cylinders subjected to external pressure with initial ovality, such as the once-through type steam generator.

Design of Initial Decision-Making Support Interface for Crop Facility Cultivation (작물 시설재배 초기 의사결정 지원 인터페이스 설계)

  • Kim, Kuk-Jong;Cho, Yong-Yoon
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the number of people wishing to return to farming is increasing, However, the lack of farming experience and management information of returnees is one of the main reasons for increasing the probability of agricultural failure. This study proposes an interface to support early facility cultivation management decision-making for returnees who want facility cultivation. The proposed interface is designed with UML(Unified Modeling Language) and provides key decision-making information such as land/crop suitability, land/facility costs, and management costs according to input data such as cultivation areas, selected crops, and cultivation types selected by the user. Through the proposed interface, facility cultivators can effectively and quickly acquire initial decision-making information for facility cultivation in the desired target area.

Evaluation of Chloride Diffusion Behavior and Analysis of Probabilistic Service Life in Long Term Aged GGBFS Concrete (장기 재령 GGBFS 콘크리트의 염화물 확산 거동 평가 및 확률론적 염해 내구수명 해석)

  • Yoon, Yong-Sik;Kim, Tae-Hoon;Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2020
  • In this study, three levels of W/B(Water to Binder) ratio (0.37, 0.42, 0.47) and substitution ratio of GGBFS (Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag) rate (0 %, 30 %, 50 %) were considered to perform RCPT (Rapid Chloride Diffusion Test) at the 1,095 aged day. Accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient and passed charge of each concrete mixture were assessed according to Tang's method and ASTM C 1202, and improving behaviors of durability performance with increasing aged days are analyzed based on the test results of previous aged days from the preceding study. As the age of concrete increases, the passed charge and diffusion coefficient have been significantly reduced, and especially the concrete specimens containing GGBFS showed a significantly more reduction than OPC(Ordinary Portland Cement) concrete specimen by latent hydraulic activity. In the case of OPC concrete's results of passed charge, at the 1,095 days, two of them were still in the "Moderate" class. So, if only OPC is used as the binder of concrete, the resistance performance for chloride attack is weak. In this study, the time-parameters (m) were derived based on the results of the accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient, and the deterministic and probabilistic analysis for service life were performed by assuming the design variable as a probability function. For probabilistic service life analysis, durability failure probabilities were calculated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to evaluate service life. The service life of probabilistic method were lower than that of deterministic method, since the target value of PDF (Probability of Durability Failure) was set very low at 10 %. If the target value of PDF suitable for the purpose of using structure can be set and proper variability can be considered for each design variable, it is believed that more economical durability design can be made.