• 제목/요약/키워드: System of performance test

검색결과 7,417건 처리시간 0.039초

상향류 인 결정화공정을 이용한 슬러지 발효 유출수로 부터의 영양소 회수 (Nutrient Recovery from Sludge Fermentation Effluent in Upflow Phosphate Crystallization Process)

  • 안영호
    • 대한환경공학회지
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    • 제28권8호
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    • pp.866-871
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    • 2006
  • 연속 회분식 방식의 실험실 규모 상향류 반응조를 사용하여 인 결정화공정을 이용한 영양물질 회수에 대한 연구를 수행하였다. 양이온 공급원으로서 산업폐기물인 폐석회와 마그네슘염을 이용하여 그 운전특성을 비교하였다. 이 연구는 고성능 발효조와 인 결정화 반응조로 구성된 새로운 통합 슬러지 처리 공정에 있어서 인 결정화공정의 성공적인 적용성 평가에 초점을 두고 있다. 발효조 유출수와 유사한 특성으로 제조된 합성폐수를 이용한 첫 번째 struvite 결정화 실험에서 반응은 $0.5{\sim}1$ hrs 사이의 반응시간에서 빠르게 진행되었는데, 그 동안 상당량(약 60% 이상)의 암모니아와 인이 제거되었다. 알칼리성 조건이라는 기질의 고유특성으로 인하여 암모니아 탈기 현상이 다소 발생하였으나 그 정도는 미미한 것(<5%)으로 나타났다. 또한 공기주입에 의한 이산화탄소 탈기조건을 추가적으로 제공하였을 때 struvite 형성속도의 향상은 일어나지 않았다. 실폐수로서 발효조 유출수를 사용한 두 번째 실험에서 stuvite 결정화를 위한 마그네슘염의 최적주입량은 struvite형성질량비와 유사한 0.86 g Mg $g^{-1}$ P이었다. 반면에 폐석회의 최적주입량은 0.3 g $L^{-1}$으로 다소 높게 나타났으며, 약 3시간의 반응시간 조건에서 $NH_4$-N과 $PO_4$-P의 제거효율은 각각 80%와 41%로 나타났다. 각 실험에서 침전물을 현미경으로 분석한 결과 마네슘염을 사용한 경우 프리즘과 같은 결정체가 관찰된 반면 폐석회를 사용한 경우는 비결정질의 결정체가 주로 관찰되었다. 하수처리용량 158,880 $m^3\;d^{-1}$의 실규모 처리시설의 경우를 대상으로 한 통합 슬러지처리시스템의 물질수지 분석결과 결정화 반응조 유출수로 부터의 반송되는 영양물질의 재순환 부하(각각 하수 1 $m^3$ 당 0.13 g N와 0.19 g P)는 매우 낮게 유지되는 것으로 나타났다. 그러므로 이미 산업폐기물 형태로 존재하는 폐석회를 본 연구에서와 같이 통합 슬러지 처리시스템의 영양물질 회수 공정에서 재이용하는 것은 높은 환경적 및 경제적 이익과 동시에 산업폐기물의 지속발전적 처리/처분이라는 다양한 장점을 가질 것이다.

활성 슬러지조 폭기를 위한 에너지 절감형 판형 멤브레인 산기장치의 개발 (Development of Energy Saving Aeration Panel for Aerating in Activated Sludge System)

  • 김지태;탁현기;김종국
    • 대한환경공학회지
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    • 제34권6호
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    • pp.414-420
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    • 2012
  • 에너지 절감형 산기장치의 상용화를 목적으로 국내 J사의 인장강도 $400kg_f/cm^2$ 이상, 두께가 0.5 mm의 폴리 우레탄 시트를 확보하고 고무 시트의 천공에 가장 널리 이용되는 방식인 needle을 이용한 천공방법을 택하여 기공의 크기가 $100{\mu}m$ 정도의 판형 멤브레인 산기장치를 제작하였다. 판형 산기 모듈 제작 후 실험실 및 파일롯 규모의 테스트 결과, 수조 450 L, 수온 $20^{\circ}C$, 공기량 40 L/min인 실험실 테스트에서 3분 내에 DO가 5 mg/L을 넘었고, 8분 내에 DO가 포화치에 가까운 8 mg/L 이상이 됨을 알 수 있었다. 이때의 $K_{La(15)}$$16.34hr^{-1}$, 표준산소전달효율은 54.7%, 표준폭기효율는 7.88 kg/kwh로 상당히 높은 효율의 실험결과를 보였다. 수조 2 $m^3$, 수온 $19^{\circ}C$, 공기량 30 L/min인 파이롯 규모의 테스트에서는 8분 내에 DO 농도가 5 mg/L를 넘었고, 이때의 $K_{La(15)}$$5.8hr^{-1}$, 표준산소전달효율은 42.1%, 표준폭기효율는 6.41 kg/kwh로 기존 산기관의 2~2.5배 높은 효율의 실험결과를 보였다. 특히 단위 동력당 산소전달률이 높아 경제성이 높음을 나타내었다. 기존 산기관의 적용에서 청수에서의 산소전달효율이 실제 폐수에서의 산소전달률의 차이로 인한 문제가 빈발하여 실제 $40^{\circ}C$ 축산폐수에서 테스트한 결과 $OTE_f$는 22.1% $OTE_{pw40}$이 39.6%로 매우 높은 효율을 보였다.

데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로 (The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction)

  • 천세학
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • 본 논문은 학습데이터의 크기에 따른 사례기반추론기법이 주가예측력에 어떻게 영향을 미치는지 살펴본다. 삼성전자 주가를 대상을 학습데이터를 2000년부터 2017년까지 이용한 경우와 2015년부터 2017년까지 이용한 경우를 비교하였다. 테스트데이터는 두 경우 모두 2018년 1월 1일부터 2018년 8월 31일까지 이용하였다. 시계 열데이터의 경우 과거데이터가 얼마나 유용한지 살펴보는 측면과 유사사례개수의 중요성을 살펴보는 측면에서 연구를 진행하였다. 실험결과 학습데이터가 많은 경우가 그렇지 않은 경우보다 예측력이 높았다. MAPE을 기준으로 비교할 때, 학습데이터가 적은 경우, 유사사례 개수와 상관없이 k-NN이 랜덤워크모델에 비해 좋은 결과를 보여주지 못했다. 그러나 학습데이터가 많은 경우, 일반적으로 k-NN의 예측력이 랜덤워크모델에 비해 좋은 결과를 보여주었다. k-NN을 비롯한 다른 데이터마이닝 방법론들이 주가 예측력 제고를 위해 학습데이터의 크기를 증가시키는 것 이외에, 거시경제변수를 고려한 기간유사사례를 찾아 적용하는 것을 제안한다.

현장관측용 분광 광도계의 상대 검교정 시스템 개발 (Development of relative radiometric calibration system for in-situ measurement spectroradiometers)

  • 오은송;안기범;강혁모;조성익;박영제
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.455-464
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    • 2014
  • 천리안해양관측위성(Geostationary Ocean Color Imager, GOCI)이 2010년 6월에 발사된 이후, 영상 자료의 보정과 검증을 위한 여러 차례의 현장 관측이 한반도 주변에서 수행되었다. 한국해양과학기술원 해양위성센터(Korea Ocean Satellite Center, KOSC)에서는 Analytical Spectral Devices (ASD)사의 분광 광도계 FieldSpec3나 TriOS사의 분광 광도계 RAMSES와 같은 현장관측장비의 특성 변화를 확인하기 위하여 미국국립표준기술원(National Institute of Standards and Technology, NIST)의 표준화 절차를 거친 광원과 표준 분광 광도계를 이용하여 각각의 현장 관측 마다 기기의 성능을 측정하였다. 본 논문에서는 해양위성센터에 구축된 광학 실험실과 현장관측 분광 광도계의 상대적 복사 검교정 방법에 대해서 소개하고 있다. 광학 실험실은 98% 이상의 광원 균질성을 지니는 20인치 적분구(USS-2000S, LabSphere)와 360 nm 부터 1100 nm 까지 1.6 nm 파장 간격으로 측정이 가능한 표준 분광 광도계(MCPD9800, Photal), 그리고 ${\pm}0.1mm$의 편평도를 가지는 광학테이블($3600{\times}1500{\times}800mm^3$)을 기본으로 구성되어 있다. 실험실 내부는 정확한 검교정 실험을 위하여 일정한 온습도를 유지하고 있으며, 동일한 광원에 동일한 위치에서 표준과 현장관측용 분광 광도계를 동시에 측정하는 방법을 기본으로 한다. 해양위성센터가 보유하고 있는 ASD 를 측정한 결과, 현장관측용 분광광도계의 결과가 푸른 가시광 영역에서 미세한 차이가 측정 시 마다 나타나는 것을 확인하였고, 더불어 1년간의 상대 검교정 실험에 따르면 평균적으로 4.41% 정도의 파장별 광특성이 변화하는 것을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과는 측정 정확도를 유지하고, GOCI 자료의 신뢰도를 확보하기 위하여 지속적인 검교정 실험을 수행해야 하는 이유를 보여주고 있다.

가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고- (An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea)

  • 방숙;한성현;이정자;안문영;이인숙;김은실;김종호
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.165-203
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    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

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국가직무능력표준(NCS)에 근거한 조경분야 교육과정 개발 방법론 - 갭분석을 중심으로 - (A Methodology to Develop a Curriculum based on National Competency Standards - Focused on Methodology for Gap Analysis -)

  • 변재상;안성로;신상현
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제43권1호
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2015
  • 산업현장의 변화와 요구에 부응할 수 있는 인력을 체계적으로 양성하기 위하여 2001년에 국무조정실을 중심으로 NCS(National Competency Standards, 이하 NCS)와 국가자격체제(National Qualification Frameworks, 이하 NQF)의 도입이 결정되었다. 건설분야 내 조경 역시 2008년 "국가직무능력표준(NCS) -조경"이 시범 개발되어 2009년부터 3년간 시범운영되었다. 특히 2013년 출범한 박근혜 정부의 주요 국정과제 중 하나로 '학벌이 아닌 능력 중심의 사회 구현'이 채택되면서, 이를 실천하기 위한 구체적인 수단으로 NCS 체제 구축이 전국적으로 확산되고 있는 시점이다. 그러나 국가에서 개발한 NCS의 경우, 이상적인 직무수행능력을 명시하였기 때문에 각 대학의 학생수준의 차이, 기자재와 교수들의 확보문제, 현행교육과정의 시수 문제 등 실질적인 운영상의 문제점을 반영하지 못한 단점이 있으므로, 이를 현실적인 교육과정에 연착륙시키기 위해서는 현재의 교육과정과 NCS와의 차이 즉 갭(gap)을 명확히 분석하는 과정이 선행되어야 한다. 갭분석은 기존의 교육과정을 NCS 기반 교육과정으로 개편하기 위한 초기 단계의 방법론으로 NCS 능력단위별 능력단위요소와 수행준거를 기준으로 학과 내 기존 교육과정과의 괴리도 혹은 일치 정도를 1에서 5까지 리커트 척도를 활용하여 기입한 후 분석하는 방법이다. 이처럼 현재의 대학 내 교육과정과 NCS와의 일치 및 괴리 정도를 측정함으로써 향후 NCS 운영을 희망하는 대학에서는 NCS의 적용 가능성과 개발 운영 이후의 효과성을 검증할 수 있는 기초 도구를 확보할 수 있다. 갭분석을 통한 교육과정 개편의 장점으로는 첫째, 정부의 재정지원 사업과 연계하여 정성적인 학과별 NCS 도입률에 대한 정량적 지표를 제공할 수 있으며, 둘째, NCS 기반 교육과정 개편 시 부족한 혹은 포화상태인 부분에 대한 객관적인 기준을 제공해 준다. 즉, 해당 NCS 세분류 도입 시 부족한 능력단위 및 능력단위요소를 추출할 수 있으며, 기존 과목별 능력단위요소별로 보완 사항도 추출할 수 있는 동시에, 이를 통한 상세 강의계획서 및 기초 교과목 개설을 위한 방향성을 제시해 주는 장점이 있다. 다만, 현재까지 개발된 갭분석의 이론을 보완하여 보다 체계적으로 정비해야 하는 과제는 남아 있다. 교육부, 고용노동부는 산업현장의 요구를 교육훈련 및 자격에 체계적으로 반영하기 위해 관련 산업계 인사들이 모여 실무적인 차원에서 NCS 표준을 적극적으로 개발하고 보급하여야 하며, NCS 적용을 희망하는 대학에서는 일과 자격이 연계될 수 있는 교육과정을 NCS 기반으로 개편하여야 할 것이다. 이를 위해 대학에서는 관련 산업 전망 및 대학 내 교수자원과 지역 산업과의 관련성을 고려하여 적용하고자 하는 NCS 세분류를 명확히 선정하여야 할 것이다. 이후 NCS 기반 교육과정 개편을 위해 갭분석을 사용하여 개편의 방향과 기준을 보다 객관적이고 합리적으로 수립하여 교육과정명세서에 대한 명확한 논리적 근거를 확보하고 있어야 과정이수형 자격제도에 효율적으로 동참할 수 있을 것이다.

한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발 (DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA)

  • 박만배
    • 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한교통학회 1995년도 제27회 학술발표회
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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