• Title/Summary/Keyword: System Risk Analysis

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Clozapine Administration Potentiate Platelet Activation in Patients with Schizophrenia : Retrospective Study (클로자핀을 투여한 조현병 환자에서 혈소판 활성 증가에 관한 후향적 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Ah;Lee, Jong Wook;Kim, Seung-Jun;Oh, Hong-Seok;Im, Woo Young;Kim, Ji-Woong
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.188-193
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    • 2018
  • Objectives : Clozapine is a widely prescribed antipsychotic drug for schizophrenia and is known to increase the risk of cardiovascular disease due to its metabolic side effects. However, little is known about the effect of clozapine on the platelet activation, another important factor in the development of cardiovascular disease. In this study, we tried to investigate the effect of clozapine on platelet activity in patients with schizophrenia by comparing the mean platelet component (MPC) values before and after the clozapine administration. Methods : A retrospective review of medical records of patients with schizophrenia, who newly started clozapine treatment from September 1st, 2003 to April 30th, 2007 at the Department of Psychiatry, Konyang University Hospital in Republic of Korea was performed. The final statistical analysis included 14 participants. Bayer ADVIA $120^{(R)}$ system was used to measure MPC. Results : Among the 14 participants, five subjects were males (28.60%), and ten subjects were females (71.40%). The mean age of participants was $37.50{\pm}11.64years$. Average of duration of illness was $91.00{\pm}93.96months$, with the mean dosage of clozapine taken by participants at the time of the last blood test was $337.50{\pm}109.52mg$. The mean MPC measurement before and after receiving clozapine was $26.12{\pm}2.22g/dL$ and $25.14{\pm}2.08g/dL$ respectively. Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there was a statistically significant decrease in MPC levels after clozapine administration (V=16, p=0.024). Conclusions : Decreased MPC levels after clozapine administration implies that clozapine may increase platelet activation which could have an adverse effect on the occurrence of thromboembolic disease. Our findings also suggest that careful monitoring of the risk factors of cardiovascular diseases, such as platelets activity, is necessary when administering clozapine.

Comparative evaluation of dose according to changes in rectal gas volume during radiation therapy for cervical cancer : Phantom Study (자궁경부암 방사선치료 시 직장가스 용적 변화에 따른 선량 비교 평가 - Phantom Study)

  • Choi, So Young;Kim, Tae Won;Kim, Min Su;Song, Heung Kwon;Yoon, In Ha;Back, Geum Mun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.33
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare and evaluate the dose change according to the gas volume variations in the rectum, which was not included in the treatment plan during radiation therapy for cervical cancer. Materials and methods: Static Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (S-IMRT) using a 9-field and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) using 2 full-arcs were established with treatment planning system on Computed Tomography images of a human phantom. Random gas parameters were included in the Planning Target Volume(PTV) with a maximum change of 2.0 cm in increments of 0.5 cm. Then, the Conformity Index (CI), Homogeneity Index (HI) and PTV Dmax for the target volume were calculated, and the minimum dose (Dmin), mean dose (Dmean) and Maximum Dose (Dmax) were calculated and compared for OAR(organs at risk). For statistical analysis, T-test was performed to obtain a p-value, where the significance level was set to 0.05. Result: The HI coefficients of determination(R2) of S-IMRT and VMAT were 0.9423 and 0.8223, respectively, indicating a relatively clear correlation, and PTV Dmax was found to increase up to 2.8% as the volume of a given gas parameter increased. In case of OAR evaluation, the dose in the bladder did not change with gas volume while a significant dose difference of more than Dmean 700 cGy was confirmed in rectum using both treatment plans at gas volumes of 1.0 cm or more. In all values except for Dmean of bladder, p-value was less than 0.05, confirming a statistically significant difference. Conclusion: In the case of gas generation not considered in the reference treatment plan, as the amount of gas increased, the dose difference at PTV and the dose delivered to the rectum increased. Therefore, during radiation therapy, it is necessary to make efforts to minimize the dose transmission error caused by a large amount of gas volumes in the rectum. Further studies will be necessary to evaluate dose transmission by not only varying the gas volume but also where the gas was located in the treatment field.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.225-270
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    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

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Particulate Matter and CO2 Improvement Effects by Vegetation-based Bio-filters and the Indoor Comfort Index Analysis (식생기반 바이오필터의 미세먼지, 이산화탄소 개선효과와 실내쾌적지수 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Han;Choi, Boo-Hun;Choi, Na-Hyun;Jang, Eun-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.268-276
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND: In the month of January 2018, fine dust alerts and warnings were issued 36 times for $PM_{10}$ and 81 times for PM2.5. Air quality is becoming a serious issue nation-wide. Although interest in air-purifying plants is growing due to the controversy over the risk of chemical substances of regular air-purifying solutions, industrial spread of the plants has been limited due to their efficiency in air-conditioning perspective. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study aims to propose a vegetation-based bio-filter system that can assure total indoor air volume for the efficient application of air-purifying plants. In order to evaluate the quantitative performance of the system, time-series analysis was conducted on air-conditioning performance, indoor air quality, and comfort index improvement effects in a lecture room-style laboratory with 16 persons present in the room. The system provided 4.24 ACH ventilation rate and reduced indoor temperature by $1.6^{\circ}C$ and black bulb temperature by $1.0^{\circ}C$. Relative humidity increased by 24.4% and deteriorated comfort index. However, this seemed to be offset by turbulent flow created from the operation of air blowers. While $PM_{10}$ was reduced by 39.5% to $22.11{\mu}g/m^3$, $CO_2$ increased up to 1,329ppm. It is interpreted that released $CO_2$ could not be processed because light compensation point was not reached. As for the indoor comfort index, PMV was reduced by 83.6 % and PPD was reduced by 47.0% on average, indicating that indoor space in a comfort range could be created by operating vegetation-based bio-filters. CONCLUSION: The study confirmed that the vegetation-based bio-filter system is effective in lowering indoor temperature and $PM_{10}$ and has positive effects on creating comfortable indoor space in terms of PMV and PPD.

The Association of Blood Concentrations of Healvy Metals and Blood Pressure in Residents Living Near Janghang Copper Smelter in Korea (제련소 주변 지역 주민들의 혈중 중금속 농도와 혈압과의 관련성)

  • Eom, Sang-Yong;Yim, Dong-Hyuk;Moon, Sun-In;Ochirpurev, Bolormaa;Choi, Young-Sook;Park, Choong-Hee;Kim, Guen-Bae;Yu, Seung-Do;Choi, Byung-Sun;Park, Jung-Duck;Kim, Yong-Dae;Kim, Heon
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to evaluate a relationship between the blood concentrations of toxic metals and the blood pressure in people living near the copper smelter. Methods: The study included 570 adults living within 4km of the smelter. We compared systolic and diastolic blood pressure between tertiary groups for blood cadmium, mercury and lead levels, respectively. Multiple regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors affecting systolic and diastolic blood pressures. Results: In male subjects, there is a significant difference in the mean of systolic and diastolic blood pressure between tertiary groups of blood cadmium and mercury levels, but in women, there was no significant difference in the mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures in all tertiary groups of heavy metals. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that age, BMI, and cadmium concentration in men were risk factors for blood pressure. In women, age and BMI, drinking and smoking, and blood mercury were significantly influenced to blood pressure. Conclusions: Residents living near the Janghang smelter showed high concentrations of blood lead and cadmium, suggesting that they were exposed to high concentrations of heavy metals released from the smelter in the past. Such exposure may have caused some blood pressure increase. Especially, the concentration of cadmium in the case of men and the concentration of mercury in blood in the case of women were found to be significantly related to the increase of blood pressure. The local population should be advised to make efforts to reduce exposure to environmental contaminants, in order to minimize cardiovascular disease, and to pay close attention to any health problems possibly related to toxic metal exposure.

Research Framework for International Franchising (국제프랜차이징 연구요소 및 연구방향)

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Lim, Young-Kyun;Shim, Jae-Duck
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.61-118
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this research is to construct research framework for international franchising based on existing literature and to identify research components in the framework. Franchise can be defined as management styles that allow franchisee use various management assets of franchisor in order to make or sell product or service. It can be divided into product distribution franchise that is designed to sell products and business format franchise that is designed for running it as business whatever its form is. International franchising can be defined as a way of internationalization of franchisor to foreign country by providing its business format or package to franchisee of host country. International franchising is growing fast for last four decades but academic research on this is quite limited. Especially in Korea, research about international franchising is carried out on by case study format with single case or empirical study format with survey based on domestic franchise theory. Therefore, this paper tries to review existing literature on international franchising research, providing research framework, and then stimulating new research on this field. International franchising research components include motives and environmental factors for decision of expanding to international franchising, entrance modes and development plan for international franchising, contracts and management strategy of international franchising, and various performance measures from different perspectives. First, motives of international franchising are fee collection from franchisee. Also it provides easier way to expanding to foreign country. The other motives including increase total sales volume, occupying better strategic position, getting quality resources, and improving efficiency. Environmental factors that facilitating international franchising encompasses economic condition, trend, and legal or political factors in host and/or home countries. In addition, control power and risk management capability of franchisor plays critical role in successful franchising contract. Final decision to enter foreign country via franchising is determined by numerous factors like history, size, growth, competitiveness, management system, bonding capability, industry characteristics of franchisor. After deciding to enter into foreign country, franchisor needs to set entrance modes of international franchising. Within contractual mode, there are master franchising and area developing franchising, licensing, direct franchising, and joint venture. Theories about entrance mode selection contain concepts of efficiency, knowledge-based approach, competence-based approach, agent theory, and governance cost. The next step after entrance decision is operation strategy. Operation strategy starts with selecting a target city and a target country for franchising. In order to finding, screening targets, franchisor needs to collect information about candidates. Critical information includes brand patent, commercial laws, regulations, market conditions, country risk, and industry analysis. After selecting a target city in target country, franchisor needs to select franchisee, in other word, partner. The first important criteria for selecting partners are financial credibility and capability, possession of real estate. And cultural similarity and knowledge about franchisor and/or home country are also recognized as critical criteria. The most important element in operating strategy is legal document between franchisor and franchisee with home and host countries. Terms and conditions in legal documents give objective information about characteristics of franchising agreement for academic research. Legal documents have definitions of terminology, territory and exclusivity, agreement of term, initial fee, continuing fees, clearing currency, and rights about sub-franchising. Also, legal documents could have terms about softer elements like training program and operation manual. And harder elements like law competent court and terms of expiration. Next element in operating strategy is about product and service. Especially for business format franchising, product/service deliverable, benefit communicators, system identifiers (architectural features), and format facilitators are listed for product/service strategic elements. Another important decision on product/service is standardization vs. customization. The rationale behind standardization is cost reduction, efficiency, consistency, image congruence, brand awareness, and competitiveness on price. Also standardization enables large scale R&D and innovative change in management style. Another element in operating strategy is control management. The simple way to control franchise contract is relying on legal terms, contractual control system. There are other control systems, administrative control system and ethical control system. Contractual control system is a coercive source of power, but franchisor usually doesn't want to use legal power since it doesn't help to build up positive relationship. Instead, self-regulation is widely used. Administrative control system uses control mechanism from ordinary work relationship. Its main component is supporting activities to franchisee and communication method. For example, franchisor provides advertising, training, manual, and delivery, then franchisee follows franchisor's direction. Another component is building franchisor's brand power. The last research element is performance factor of international franchising. Performance elements can be divided into franchisor's performance and franchisee's performance. The conceptual performance measures of franchisor are simple but not easy to obtain objectively. They are profit, sale, cost, experience, and brand power. The performance measures of franchisee are mostly about benefits of host country. They contain small business development, promotion of employment, introduction of new business model, and level up technology status. There are indirect benefits, like increase of tax, refinement of corporate citizenship, regional economic clustering, and improvement of international balance. In addition to those, host country gets socio-cultural change other than economic effects. It includes demographic change, social trend, customer value change, social communication, and social globalization. Sometimes it is called as westernization or McDonaldization of society. In addition, the paper reviews on theories that have been frequently applied to international franchising research, such as agent theory, resource-based view, transaction cost theory, organizational learning theory, and international expansion theories. Resource based theory is used in strategic decision based on resources, like decision about entrance and cooperation depending on resources of franchisee and franchisor. Transaction cost theory can be applied in determination of mutual trust or satisfaction of franchising players. Agent theory tries to explain strategic decision for reducing problem caused by utilizing agent, for example research on control system in franchising agreements. Organizational Learning theory is relatively new in franchising research. It assumes organization tries to maximize performance and learning of organization. In addition, Internalization theory advocates strategic decision of direct investment for removing inefficiency of market transaction and is applied in research on terms of contract. And oligopolistic competition theory is used to explain various entry modes for international expansion. Competency theory support strategic decision of utilizing key competitive advantage. Furthermore, research methodologies including qualitative and quantitative methodologies are suggested for more rigorous international franchising research. Quantitative research needs more real data other than survey data which is usually respondent's judgment. In order to verify theory more rigorously, research based on real data is essential. However, real quantitative data is quite hard to get. The qualitative research other than single case study is also highly recommended. Since international franchising has limited number of applications, scientific research based on grounded theory and ethnography study can be used. Scientific case study is differentiated with single case study on its data collection method and analysis method. The key concept is triangulation in measurement, logical coding and comparison. Finally, it provides overall research direction for international franchising after summarizing research trend in Korea. International franchising research in Korea has two different types, one is for studying Korean franchisor going overseas and the other is for Korean franchisee of foreign franchisor. Among research on Korean franchisor, two common patterns are observed. First of all, they usually deal with success story of one franchisor. The other common pattern is that they focus on same industry and country. Therefore, international franchise research needs to extend their focus to broader subjects with scientific research methodology as well as development of new theory.

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An Overview of the Rationale of Monetary and Banking Intervention: The Role of the Central Bank in Money and Banking Revisited (화폐(貨幣)·금융개입(金融介入)의 이론적(理論的) 근거(根據)에 대한 고찰(考察) : 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 존립근거(存立根據)에 대한 개관(槪觀))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.71-94
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    • 1990
  • This paper reviews the rationale of monetary and banking intervention by an outside authority, either the government or the central bank, and seeks to delineate clearly the optimal limits to the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway in Korea as well as on a global scale. Furthermore, this paper seeks to establish an objective and balanced view on the role of the central bank, especially in light of the current discussion on the restructuring of Korea's central bank, which has been severely contaminated by interest-group politics. The discussion begins with the recognition that the modern free banking school and the new monetary economics are becoming formidable challenges to the traditional role of the government or the central bank in the monetary and banking sector. The paper reviews six arguments that have traditionally been presented to support intervention: (1) the possibility of an over-issue of bank notes under free banking instead of central banking; (2) externalities in and the public good nature of the use of money; (3) economies of scale and natural monopoly in producing money; (4) the need for macro stabilization policy due to the instability of the real sector; (5) the external effects of bank failure due to the inherent instability of the existing banking system; and (6) protection for small banknote users and depositors. Based on an analysis of the above arguments, the paper speculates on the optimal role of the government or central bank in the monetary and banking system and the optimal degree of monetary and banking deregulation. By contrast to the arguments for free banking or laissez-faire monetary systems, which become fashionable in recent years, monopoly and intervention by the government or central bank in the outside money system can be both necessary and optimal. In this case, of course, an over-issue of fiat money may be possible due to political considerations, but this issue is beyond the scope of this paper. On the other hand, the issue of inside monies based on outside money could indeed be provided for optimally under market competition by private institutions. A competitive system in issuing inside monies would help realize, to the maxim urn extent possible, external economies generated by using a single outside money. According to this reasoning, free banking activities will prevail in the inside money system, while a government monopoly will prevail in the outside money system. This speculation, then, also implies that the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway should and most likely will be limited to the inside money system, which could be liberalized to the fullest degree. It is also implied that it will be impractical to deregulate the outside money system and to allow market competition to provide outside money, in accordance with the arguments of the free banking school and the new monetary economics. Furthermore, the role of the government or central bank in this new environment will not be significantly different from their current roles. As far as the supply of fiat money continues to be monopolized by the government, the control of the supply of base money and such related responsibilities as monetary policy (argument(4)) and the lender of the last resort (argument (5)) will naturally be assigned to the outside money supplier. However, a mechanism for controlling an over-issue of fiat money by a monopolistic supplier will definitely be called for (argument(1)). A monetary policy based on a certain policy rule could be one possibility. More importantly, the deregulation of the inside money system would further increase the systemic risk inherent in the current fractional banking system, while enhancing the efficiency of the system (argument (5)). In this context, the role of the lender of the last resort would again become an instrument of paramount importance in alleviating liquidity crises in the early stages, thereby disallowing the possibility of a widespread bank run. Similarly, prudential banking supervision would also help maintain the safety and soundness of the fully deregulated banking system. These functions would also help protect depositors from losses due to bank failures (argument (6)). Finally, these speculations suggest that government or central bank authorities have probably been too conservative on the issue of the deregulation of the financial system, beyond the caution necessary to preserve system safety. Rather, only the fullest deregulation of the inside money system seems to guarantee the maximum enjoyment of external economies in the single outside money system.

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A Study on The Introduction of LID Prior Consultation for Small-Scale Development Projects - Focusing on Cost-Benefit Analysis - (소규모 개발사업의 저영향개발(LID) 사전협의 제도 도입 연구 - 비용편익 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Ji, Min-Kyu;Sagong, Hee;Joo, Yong-Jun
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2020
  • Rapid urbanization has elevated the risk of urban flooding due to the increase in the impervious surface, causing environmental disasters and environmental pollution problems, such as lowering the groundwater level and increasing water pollution. In Korea, low impact development (LID) techniques have been introduced to minimize these environmental impacts and maintain the water cycle soundness. However, most small-scale development projects are in blind spots because there is no legal basis for rainfall runoff management. Small-scale development projects that increase the surface runoff of rainwater are required to mandate the application of LID facilities in accordance with the polluters' responsibility principle. Therefore, it is necessary to implement a preliminary consultation system for water cycle recovery. This study focuses on the cost-benefit analysis on the application of LID techniques for small-scale development projects. The scale of nationwide small-scale development projects used for cost-benefit analysis were defined as buildings with a land area of more than 1,000 ㎡ or a total floor area of 1,500 ㎡. As a result of analyzing the cost-benefits from the installation of LID facilities, they were found to be much lower than the economic standard value of 1. This might be due to the high cost of facilities compared to the scale of the project. However, considering the overall environmental value of improving the water environment and air quality by the installation of LID facilities and the publicity of reducing the operating cost of sewage treatment facilities, the introduction of a prior consultation for small-scale development projects is inevitable. In the future, institutional and financial support from local governments is required to improve the cost-benefits with the introduction of a prior consultation for small-scale development projects.

The Expression of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) is a Highly Significant Prognostic Factor in Stage IB Carcinoma of the Cervix (병기 IB 자궁경부암에서 혈관내피세포성장인자(VEGF)의 발현이 예후에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee Ik Jae;Park Kyung Ran;Lee Jong Young;Lee Kang Kyoo;Song Ji Sun;Lee Kwang Gil;Cha Dong Soo;Choi Hyun Il
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.335-344
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    • 2001
  • Purpose : The aim of this study was to clarify the role of VEGF expression as an independent prognostic factor and to identify the patients at high risk for poor prognosis in stage IB cervical cancer. Materials and methods : A total of 118 patients with stage IB cervical cancer who had radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection were included in the study. All known high risk factors of the patients were pathologically confirmed from the surgical specimen. Of the 118 patients, n patients were treated with postoperative radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy. VEGF expression was examined using immunohistochemistry in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens of post-hysterectomy surgical materials. A semiquantitative analysis was made using a scoring system of 0, +, ++, and +++ for increasing intensity of stain. We classified the patients with scores from 0 to ++ as low VEGF expression and the patients with a score of +++ as high VEGF expression. Results : Of the 118 patients, 35 patients $(29.7\%)$ showed high VEGF expression. Strong correlations were found between the high VEGF expression and both deep stromal invasion (p=0.01) and the positive pelvic node (p=0.03). The 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates for all 118 patients were $95.5\%\;and\;93.8\%$. The 5-year overall (p=0.03) and disease-free survival (p<0.001) rates were $98.5\%\;and\;100%$ for low VEGF expression (0, +, and ++) and $85.5\%\;and\;79.7\%$ for high VEGF expression, respectively. Pelvic and distant failures for low versus high VEGF expression were $1.2\%$ versus $17.1\%$, (p=0.001) and $0\%$ versus $14.3\%$ (p<0.001), respectively. In a Cox multivariate analysis of survival, the high VEGF expression (p=0.02) and the bulky mass (p=0.02) were significant prognostic factors for overall survival. The high VEGF expression (p=0.002), and bulky mass (p=0.01) demonstrated as significant prognostic indicators for disease free survival. Conclusion : These results showed that VEGF expression was a highly significant predictor for pelvic and distant failure and the most significant prognostic factor of overall and disease free survival for the patients with stage IB cervix cancer treated with radical surgery. We strongly suggest that the immune-histochemistry for VEGF expression be performed in a routine clinical setting in order to identify the patients at high risk for poor prognosis in early stage cervical cancer. Furthermore, postoperative and/or chemotherapy did not reduce the pelvic failure and distant metastasis. To improve the cure rate for the patients with high VEGF expression in stage IB cervical cancer, antiangiogenic therapy including anti-VEGF Ab may be new treatment option.

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Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.