• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.113-121
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• 2000

This paper presents a parallel-structure fuzzy system(PSFS) for prediction of time series data. The PSFS consists of a multiple number of fuzzy systems connected in parallel. Each component fuzzy system in the PSFS predicts the same future data independently based on its past time series data with different embedding dimension and time delay. The component fuzzy systems are characterized by multiple-input singleoutput( MIS0) Sugeno-type fuzzy rules modeled by clustering input-output product space data. The optimal embedding dimension for each component fuzzy system is chosen to have superior prediction performance for a given value of time delay. The PSFS determines the final prediction result by averaging the outputs of all the component fuzzy systems excluding the predicted data with the minimum and the maximum values in order to reduce error accumulation effect.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.412-417
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• 2005

The Internet has been widely applied to the remote control system. The network-based control system, however, has a random time delay and an inherent weak point of the network, when the data ate transmitted. The network delay may result in performance degradation or even system instability in teleoperation. In this paper a prediction model of network delay using TSK (Takagi-Sugeno-Kang) fuzzy model is presented. An adaptive scheme is developed to update the prediction model according to the current network status. The prediction model is applied to the control of an Internet-based mobile robot to show its usefulness. In the computer simulation the TSK Prediction model of network delay is proven superior to the conventional algorithms.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.55-57
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• 2015

The tracking system plays a key role in accurate estimation and prediction of maneuvering vessel's position and velocity in a bid to enhance safety by taking avoiding action against collision. Therefore, in order to achieve this, many ocean- going vessels are equipped with radar and the ARPA system. However, the accuracy of prediction highly depends on the choice of the gain parameters, ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$ and ${\gamma}$ employed in the tracking filter. P revious research of this paper was based on theoretically developing an algorithm for a tracking module. This research paper is hence a continuation by the authors to determine the optimal values of the gain parameters used in the tracking module. A tracking algorithm is developed using the ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}$ filter to carry out prediction and smoothing of the positions and velocities. Numerical simulations are then performed to evaluate the optimal values of the smoothing parameters that will improve the performance of the tracking module and reduce measurement noise. The twice distance root mean square (2drms) is then calculated to determine error variation.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.91-103
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• 2022

This study proposes a model for predicting contracted power using electric power data collected in real time from convenience stores nationwide. By optimizing the prediction model using machine learning, it will be possible to predict the contracted power required to renew the contract of the existing convenience store. Contracted power is predicted through the XGBoost regression model. For the learning of XGBoost model, the electric power data collected for 16 months through a real-time monitoring system for convenience stores nationwide were used. The hyperparameters of the XGBoost model were tuned using the GridesearchCV, and the main features of the prediction model were identified using the xgb.importance function. In addition, it was also confirmed whether the preprocessing method of missing values and outliers affects the prediction of reduced power. As a result of hyperparameter tuning, an optimal model with improved predictive performance was obtained. It was found that the features of power.2020.09, power.2021.02, area, and operating time had an effect on the prediction of contracted power. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the preprocessing policy of missing values and outliers did not affect the prediction result. The proposed XGBoost regression model showed high predictive performance for contract power. Even if the preprocessing method for missing values and outliers was changed, there was no significant difference in the prediction results through hyperparameters tuning.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.247-261
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• 2018

The objective of this paper is to compare probabilistic temperature forecasts from different regional and global ensemble prediction systems over PyeongChang area. A statistical post-processing method is used to take into account combination and calibration of forecasts from different numerical prediction systems, laying greater weight on ensemble model that exhibits the best performance. Observations for temperature were obtained from the 30 stations in PyeongChang and three different ensemble forecasts derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Ensemble Prediction System for Global and Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System that were obtained between 1 May 2014 and 18 March 2017. Prior to applying to the post-processing methods, reliability analysis was conducted to identify the statistical consistency of ensemble forecasts and corresponding observations. Then, ensemble model output statistics and bias-corrected methods were applied to each raw ensemble model and then proposed weighted combination of ensembles. The results showed that the proposed methods provide improved performances than raw ensemble mean. In particular, multi-model forecast based on ensemble model output statistics was superior to the bias-corrected forecast in terms of deterministic prediction.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.152-159
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• 2023

Due to COVID-19, changes in consumption trends are taking place in the distribution sector, such as an increase in non-face-to-face consumption and a rapid growth in the online shopping market. However, it is difficult for small and medium-sized export sellers to obtain forecast information on the export market by country, compared to large distributors who can easily build a global sales network. This study is about the prediction of export amount and export volume by country and item for market information analysis of small and medium export sellers. A prediction model was developed using Lasso, XGBoost, and MLP models based on supervised learning and deep learning, and export trends for clothing, cosmetics, and household electronic devices were predicted for Korea's major export countries, the United States, China, and Vietnam. As a result of the prediction, the performance of MAE and RMSE for the Lasso model was excellent, and based on the development results, a market analysis system for small and medium sellers was developed.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1986.07a
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• pp.65-68
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• 1986

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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• 1998.12a
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• pp.137-143
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• 1998

• 한국항공운항학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.188-195
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• 2004

• Progress in Medical Physics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.171-180
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to install a system that compensated for the respiration motion using an articulated robotic manipulator couch which enables a wide range of motions that a Stewart platform cannot provide and to evaluate the performance of various prediction algorithms including proposed algorithm. For that purpose, we built a miniature couch tracking system comprising an articulated robotic manipulator, 3D optical tracking system, a phantom that mimicked respiratory motion, and control software. We performed simulations and experiments using respiratory data of 12 patients to investigate the feasibility of the system and various prediction algorithms, namely linear extrapolation (LE) and double exponential smoothing (ES2) with averaging methods. We confirmed that prediction algorithms worked well during simulation and experiment, with the ES2-averaging algorithm showing the best results. The simulation study showed 43% average and 49% maximum improvement ratios with the ES2-averaging algorithm, and the experimental study with the $QUASAR^{TM}$ phantom showed 51% average and 56% maximum improvement ratios with this algorithm. Our results suggest that the articulated robotic manipulator couch system with the ES2-averaging prediction algorithm can be widely used in the field of radiation therapy, providing a highly efficient and utilizable technology that can enhance the therapeutic effect and improve safety through a noninvasive approach.