• Atmosphere
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.209-220
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• 2011

A new consensus algorithm for the prediction of tropical cyclone track has been developed. Conventional consensus is a simple average of a few fixed models that showed the good performance in track prediction for the past few years. Meanwhile, the consensus in this study is a weighted average of a few models that may change for every individual forecast time. The models are selected as follows. The first step is to find the analogous past tropical cyclone tracks to the current track. The next step is to evaluate the model performances for those past tracks. Finally, we take the weighted average of the selected models. More weight is given to the higher performance model. This new algorithm has been named as DYTRAP (DYnamic data-base Typhoon tRAck Prediction) in the sense that the data base is used to find the analogous past tracks and the effective models for every individual track prediction case. DYTRAP has been applied to all 2009 tropical cyclone track prediction. The results outperforms those of all models as well as all the official forecasts of the typhoon centers. In order to prove the real usefulness of DYTRAP, it is necessary to apply the DYTRAP system to the real time prediction because the forecast in typhoon centers usually uses 6-hour or 12-hour-old model guidances.

• Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.231-241
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• 2018

In this paper, we consider the anti-attack procedure of a ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) at different operating frequencies at its phased-array radar station. The interception performance is measured in terms of lateral divert (LD), which denotes the minimum acceleration amount available in an interceptor to compensate for prediction error for a successful intercept. Dependence of the frequency on estimation accuracy that leads directly to prediction error is taken into account, in terms of angular measurement noises. The estimation extraction is performed by means of an extended Kalman filter (EKF), considering two typical re-entry trajectories of a non-maneuvering ballistic missile (BM). The simulation results show better performance at higher frequency for both tracking and intercepting aspects.

• Journal of computational fluids engineering
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.1-6
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• 2015

In this study, a numerical prediction on propulsive performance of a ducted propeller in open water condition was carried out by solving Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS) equation using computational fluid dynamics(CFD). A configuration of propeller Ka-470 inside duct 19A was considered. Hexahedral grid system was generated by dividing whole computational domain into three separate regions; propeller, duct and outer flow region. A commercial CFD software, ANSYS-CFX was used for numerical simulations. Results were compared with experimental data and showed considerable improvement in accuracy, in comparison to those from surface panel method which is based on potential flow assumption. The results also exhibited the importance of grid system within the gap between the inner surface of duct and blade tip for accurate prediction of propulsive performance of ducted propeller.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.596-601
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• 2013

In the current pavement construction practice, the state agencies traditionally determine the quality of the as-constructed pavement mix based on individual mixture material parameters (e.g., air voids, cement or asphalt content, aggregate gradation, etc.) and consider these parameters as key variables to influence payment schedule to the contractors and the present and future quality of the as-constructed mixture. A set of empirically pre-determined pay adjustment schedule for each parameter that was differently developed and being used by the individual agencies is then applied to a given project, in order to judge whether each parameter conforms to the designated specifications and consequently the contractor may either be rewarded or penalized in accordance with the payment schedule. With an improved quality assurance system, the Performance Related Specification, the individual parameters are not utilized as a direct judgment factor; rather, they become independent variables within a performance prediction function which is directly used to predict the performance. The quantified performance based on the prediction model is then applied to evaluate the pavement quality. This paper presents the brief history of the quality assurance in asphalt pavement construction including the Performance Related Specifications, statistical performance models in terms of fatigue and rutting distresses, as an example of the performance prediction models, and envisions the possibilities as to how this Performance Related Specification could be utilized in other infrastructures construction quality assurance.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.81-90
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• 2017

We have analyzed the performance of 58 kWp photovoltaic (PV) power systems installed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Performance ratio (PR) of 3 PV systems with 3 desert-type PV modules using monitoring data for 1 year showed 85.5% on average. Annual degradation rate of 5 individual modules achieved 0.26%, the regression model using monitoring data for the specified interval of one year showed 0.22%. Root mean square error (RMSE) of 6 big data analysis models for power output prediction in May 2016 was analyzed 2.94% using a support vector regression model.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.267-277
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• 2012

The objectives of this study are to develop a real-time drought monitoring and prediction system on the East Asia domain and to evaluate the performance of the system by using past historical drought records. The system is mainly composed of two parts: drought monitoring for providing current drought indices with meteorological and hydrological conditions; drought outlooks for suggesting future drought indices and future hydrometeorological conditions. Both parts represent the drought conditions on the East Asia domain (latitude $21.15{\sim}50.15^{\circ}$, longitude $104.40{\sim}149.65^{\circ}$), Korea domain (latitude $30.40{\sim}43.15^{\circ}$, longitude $118.65{\sim}135.65^{\circ}$) and South Korea domain (latitude $30.40{\sim}43.15^{\circ}$, longitude $118.65{\sim}135.65^{\circ}$), respectively. The observed meteorological data from ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System) and AWS (Automatic Weather System) of KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) and model-driven hydrological data from LSM (Land Surface model) are used for the real-time drought monitoring, while the monthly and seasonal weather forecast information from UM (Unified Model) of KMA are utilized for drought outlooks. For the evaluation of the system, past historical drought records occurred in Korea are surveyed and are compared with the application results of the system. The results demonstrated that the selected drought indices such as KMA drought index, SPI (3), SPI (6), PDSI, SRI and SSI are reasonable, especially, the performance of SRI and SSI provides higher accuracy that the others.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.51-55
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• 2007

In this paper Statistical Energy Analysis has been considered to predict high frequency air borne interior noise. Dash panel Insulation is major part to reduce engine excitation noise. Transmission loss and absorption coefficient are considered to predict dash insulation performance. Transmission lose is derived from coupling loss factor and absorption coefficient is derived from internal damping loss factor. Material Biot properties were used to calculate each loss factors. Insulation geometry thickness distribution was hard to measure, so FeGate software was used to calculate thickness map from CAD drawing. Each predicted transmission losses between conventional insulation and light weight insulation were compared with SEA. Transmission loss measurement was performed to validate each prediction result, and it showed good correlation between prediction and measurement. Finally interior noise prediction was performed and result showed light weight insulation system can reduce 40% weight to keep similar performance with conventional insulation system, even though light weigh insulation system has lower sound transmission loss and higher absorption coefficient than conventional system.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.26-34
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• 2016

In a number of industries, porous insulations have been frequently used, reducing thermal insulation space through excellent performance of the thermal insulation's characteristics. This paper suggests an effective thermal conductivity prediction model. Firstly, we perform a literature review of traditional effective thermal conductivity prediction models and compare each model with experimental heat transfer results. Furthermore, this research defines the effectiveness of thermal conductivity prediction models using experimental heat transfer results and the Zehner-Schlunder model. The newly defined effective thermal conductivity prediction model has been verified to better predict performance than other models. Finally, this research performs a transient heat transfer analysis of a thermal protection system with a porous insulation in a high speed vehicle using the finite element method and confirms the validity of the effective thermal conductivity prediction model.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.179-192
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• 2021

In this study, an integrated wave model from global to coastal scales was developed to improve the operational wave prediction performance of the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). In this system, the wave model was upgraded to the WaveWatch III version 6.07 with the improved parameterization of the source term. Considering the increased resolution of the wind input field and the introduction of the high-performance KMA 5^th Supercomputer, the spatial resolution of global and regional wave models has been doubled compared to the operational model. The physical processes and coefficients of the wave model were optimized for the current KMA global atmospheric forecasting system, the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), which is being operated since April 2020. Based on the sensitivity experiment results, the wind-wave growth parameter (β_max) for the global wave model was determined to be 1.33 with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSE). The value of β_max showed the lowest error when applied to regional/coastal wave models for the period of the typhoon season when strong winds occur. Applying the new system to the case of August 2020, the RMSE for the 48-hour significant wave height prediction was reduced by 13.4 to 17.7% compared to the existing KMA operating model. The new integrated wave prediction system plans to replace the KMA operating model after long-term verification.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.441-446
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• 2000

This paper presents an approach for the prediction of optimal heating load using a diagonal recurrent neural networks(DRNN) and data base system of outdoor temperature. In the DRNN, a dynamic backpropagation(DBP) with delta-bar-delta teaming method is used to train an optimal heating load identifier. And the data base system is utilized for outdoor temperature prediction. Compared to other kinds of methods, the proposed method gives better prediction performance of heating load. Also a hardware for the controller is developed using a microprocessor. The experimental results show that prediction enhancement for heating load can be achieved with the proposed method regardless of the its inherent nonlinearity and large time constant.