• Title/Summary/Keyword: Survivor bias

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Risk Assessment for Toluene Diisocyanate and Respiratory Disease Human Studies

  • PARK, Robert M.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.174-183
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    • 2021
  • Background: Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) is a highly reactive chemical that causes sensitization and has also been associated with increased lung cancer. A risk assessment was conducted based on occupational epidemiologic estimates for several health outcomes. Methods: Exposure and outcome details were extracted from published studies and a NIOSH Health Hazard Evaluation for new onset asthma, pulmonary function measurements, symptom prevalence, and mortality from lung cancer and respiratory disease. Summary exposure-response estimates were calculated taking into account relative precision and possible survivor selection effects. Attributable incidence of sensitization was estimated as were annual proportional losses of pulmonary function. Excess lifetime risks and benchmark doses were calculated. Results: Respiratory outcomes exhibited strong survivor bias. Asthma/sensitization exposure response decreased with increasing facility-average TDI air concentration as did TDI-associated pulmonary impairment. In a mortality cohort where mean employment duration was less than 1 year, survivor bias pre-empted estimation of lung cancer and respiratory disease exposure response. Conclusion: Controlling for survivor bias and assuming a linear dose-response with facility-average TDI concentrations, excess lifetime risks exceeding one per thousand occurred at about 2 ppt TDI for sensitization and respiratory impairment. Under alternate assumptions regarding stationary and cumulative effects, one per thousand excess risks were estimated at TDI concentrations of 10 - 30 ppt. The unexplained reported excess mortality from lung cancer and other lung diseases, if attributable to TDI or associated emissions, could represent a lifetime risk comparable to that of sensitization.

A longitudinal study of the relation of lead in blood to lead in air concentrations among battery workers

  • Hodgkins Douglas G.;Robins Thomas G.;Hinkamp David L.;Schork M. Anthony;Krebs William H.
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1994.02a
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    • pp.577-584
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    • 1994
  • The relation between lead in air (PbA) and lead in blood (PbB), concentrations was investigated among 44 workers in five major operations in a United States high volume, lead acid battery plant. The study covered a 30 month period in which workers received frequent PbA and PbB determinations, workers remained in a single job, and PbA concentrations averaged below the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit of $50{\mu}g/m^{3}$. In both univariate and multivariable linear regressions, longitudinal analyses averaging PbA concentrations over the 30 month study period appeared superior to cross sectional analyses using only six month PbA averages .to model PbB concentrations. The covariate adjusted coefficient ($\alpha$ value) for PbA($\mu/m^{3}$) in models of PbB (${\mu}g/100\;g$) was 1-14. This figure is strikingly higher than that reported in previous studies in the lead acid battery industry in all of which PbA concentrations were substantially higher than in the current study. Plausible explanations for the differences in a: values include non-linearity of the PbA-PbB curve, a higher fraction of large size particulate associated with higher PbA concentrations, survivor bias among workers exposed to higher PbA concentrations, and the cross sectional designs of most previous studies. Despite previously reported problems with the model used by OSHA to predict PbA-PbB relations, the findings of this study are in good agreement with the predictions of that model.

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