• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제20권1호
• /
• pp.203-209
• /
• 2009

Frailty models are useful for the analysis of correlated and/or heterogeneous survival data. However, the inferences of fixed parameters, rather than random effects, have been mainly studied. The prediction (or estimation) of random effects is also practically useful to investigate the heterogeneity of the hospital or patient effects. In this paper we propose how to extend the prediction method for random effects in HGLMs (hierarchical generalized linear models) to log-normal semiparametric frailty models with nonparametric baseline hazard. The proposed method is demonstrated by a simulation study.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.381-386
• /
• 2013

Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy cycles on the prognosis of patients with post-operative stomach cancer through retrospective analysis. Methods: A total of 128 patients with gastric cancer who underwent gastrectomy, followed by adjuvant chemotherapy consisting of epirubicin, cisplatin or oxaliplatin, leucovorin, and 5-fluorouracil, according to a defined schedule, were divided into three groups according to the number of chemotherapy cycles: Group I (<6 cycles); Group II (6 cycles); and Group III (>6 cycles). Results: The 5-year overall survival (OS) was 20.8% in Group I, 45.0% in Group II, and 42.9% in Group III, with a median follow-up of 43 months. The 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) was 15.1% in Group I, 40% in Group II, and 40% in Group III. The OS and RFS in Groups II and III were significantly better than in Group I (OS, p = 0.002 and p=0.003; RFS, P<0.001 and P=0.002). There was no difference in OS (p = 0.970) or in RFS (p = 0.722) between Groups II and III. Multivariate Cox hazard analysis determined that the number of adjuvant chemotherapy cycles was an independent factor that influenced OS and RFS. Conclusion: Six cycles of adjuvant chemotherapy gave encouraging outcomes in patients with resectable gastric cancer. Further prospective randomized controlled investigations are warranted in a multi-center setting.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
• /
• 제37권3호
• /
• pp.185-192
• /
• 2019

Purpose: The effectiveness of thoracic radiation therapy (TRT) in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) patients is increasingly reported, but there is no definite consensus on its application. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with better outcomes of TRT among patients with ES-SCLC, focusing on whether a higher TRT dose could improve treatment outcome. Materials and Methods: The medical records of 85 patients with ES-SCLC who received TRT between January 2008 and June 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Eligibility criteria were a biological effective dose with α/β = 10 (BED) higher than 30 Gy₁₀ and completion of planned radiotherapy. Results: During a median follow-up of 5.3 months, 68 patients (80.0%) experienced disease progression. In univariate analysis, a BED >50 Gy₁₀ was a significant prognostic factor for overall survival (OS; 40.8% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.006), progression-free survival (PFS; 15.9% vs. 9.6%, p = 0.004), and intrathoracic PFS (IT-PFS; 39.3% vs. 20.5%, p = 0.004) at 1 year. In multivariate analysis, a BED >50 Gy₁₀ remained a significant prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.502; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.287-0.876; p = 0.015), PFS (HR = 0.453; 95% CI, 0.265-0.773; p = 0.004), and IT-PFS (HR = 0.331; 95% CI, 0.171-0.641; p = 0.001). Response to the last chemotherapy was also associated with better OS in both univariate and multivariate analysis. Conclusion: A TRT dose of BED >50 Gy₁₀ may be beneficial for patients with ES-SCLC. Further studies are needed to select patients who will most benefit from high-dose TRT.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
• /
• 제77권1호
• /
• pp.13-17
• /
• 2014

Background: This study analyzed the negative prognostic factors in patients who received second-line chemotherapy for advanced inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the records of 137 patients with inoperable stage III-IV NSCLC who received second-line chemotherapy. The effects of clinical parameters on survival were analyzed and the hazard ratios (HR) for mortality were identified by a Cox regression analysis. Results: Sex, age older than 65 years, smoking history, cell type, T-stage, best response to first-line chemotherapy and first-line chemotherapy regimen were significant negative predictors in univariate analysis. The multivariate analysis showed that patients older than 65 years (HR, 1.530; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.020-2.297), advanced T stage (T4 vs. T1; HR, 2.273; 95% CI, 1.010-5.114) and non-responders who showed progression with first-line chemotherapy (HR, 1.530; 95% CI, 1.063-2.203) had higher HR for death. Conclusion: The age factor, T stage and responsiveness to first-line chemotherapy were important factors in predicting the outcome of patients with advanced NSCLC who received second-line chemotherapy. The results may help to predict outcomes for these patients in the future.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
• /
• 제2권2호
• /
• pp.121-133
• /
• 2002

This paper concerns informative censoring and some of the difficulties it creates in analysis of survival data. For analyzing censored data, misclassification of informative censoring into random censoring is often unavoidable. It is worthwhile to investigate the impact of neglecting informative censoring on the estimation of the parameters of the proportional hazards model. The proposed model includes a primary failure which can be censored informatively or randomly and a followup failure which may be censored randomly. Simulation shows that the loss is about 30% with regard to the confidence interval if we neglect the informative censoring.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제27권2호
• /
• pp.285-294
• /
• 2016

취업자들이 재직기간이 경과하면서 이직 또는 실업 상태로 탈출확률 및 탈출요인 문제를 분석하는 것은 취업의 질을 측정할 수 있는 하나의 방법이다. 일반적으로 취업자들의 이직 또는 실업으로의 탈출확률은 취업자의 개인특성뿐만 아니라, 직종 특성에도 영향을 받는 복수의 분석단위를 가지게 된다. 복수의 분석단위를 가지는 위계적 (hierarchical) 자료구조에서는 직종별로 공유되는 특성이 존재하게 되어, 동일 직종 집단 내의 상관이 발생할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 취업자 개인특성 (1-수준)과 직종 특성 (2-수준)의 위계적 자료구조 하에서 콕스의 비례위험 모형 (Cox's proportional hazard model)을 이용하여 중소기업 청년인턴사업에 참여한 취업자들의 재직기간 중 실직 및 이직으로의 탈출요인을 분석하였다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 처리집단 (인턴집단)이 통제집단 (비인턴집단)에 비해서 탈출확률이 통계적으로 유의하게 낮음을 알 수 있다. 또한 남자들이 여자들에 비해서 탈출할 확률이 높고, 연령이 높을수록 탈출할 확률이 더 낮아지는 것을 알 수 있다. 그리고 기업규모가 클수록 탈출확률이 낮으며, 직종별로는 관리사무 관련직에 비해서 전문 서비스 관련직의 탈출확률이 더 낮게 나타났다.

• Asia Marketing Journal
• /
• 제13권3호
• /
• pp.25-53
• /
• 2011

이번 연구는 실제 기업 자료를 기반으로 고객보상 프로그램이 고객 유지(retention)에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 특히 고객보상 프로그램의 효과를 보다 명확히 확인하기 위해 유사실험설계(quasi-experimental design)를 사용하였다. 그리고 1년이 넘는 장기적인 시간 프레임 속에서 고객보상 프로그램의 도입 시점을 전후로 소비자 집단을 구분하고 이들 집단의 비교를 통해 고객보상 프로그램의 효과를 파악하였다. 이러한 연구 설계를 고려한 이유는 종적 자료를 사용한 선행 연구들이 고객보상 프로그램의 도입 시점 이후부터 가입 고객과 비가입 고객을 대상으로 프로그램의 효과를 측정하였기 때문에 자기선택오류(self-selection bias)의 가능성이 존재하였기 때문이다. 이번 연구는 고객보상 프로그램의 도입 시점을 전후로 두 집단을 비교하기 위해 자료를 특정 시점을 기준으로 절단(censoring)하였다. 생존분석(survival analysis)은 다른 분석기법에 비해 불완전한 자료가 포함되더라도 분석이 상대적으로 용이하므로 이번 연구의 분석방법으로 선택하였다. 분석 결과 고객보상 프로그램을 실시하기 전에는 소비자들의 거래기간이 평균 179일이었으나 고객보상 프로그램을 도입한 이후에는 227일로 약 50일 정도 더 늘어났다. 이러한 차이는 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타나 연구 가설을 지지하였다. 또한 콕스 비례위험모형을 사용하여 고객보상 프로그램과 영향 변수들의 상호작용효과를 확인한 결과 기존고객들은 고객보상 프로그램이 도입된 후 신규고객들에 비해 회사와의 거래기간이 유의하게 증가한 것으로 나타났으며 긍정적인 서비스(예: 30일 이내 입회)를 경험한 고객들도 회사와의 거래기간이 유의하게 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 부정적인 서비스(예: 30일 이후 입회)를 경험한 고객이라 하더라도 고객보상 프로그램을 도입한 이후에는 회사와의 거래기간이 증가하였다. 이번 연구에서 나타난 결과들을 정리하면 고객보상 프로그램은 고객과 긍정적인 관계를 형성하는 데 기여할 뿐만 아니라 이탈 장벽까지 구축해 줌으로써 기업의 경쟁력을 강화시키는 수단으로서의 가치가 있다고 생각할 수 있다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제15권22호
• /
• pp.9823-9829
• /
• 2014

Background: High-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) is recognized as an efficient component of therapy against pediatric osteosarcoma in combination with other drugs such as cisplatin (CDP), carboplatin (CBDCA), doxorubicin (ADM), etoposide (VP-16) and ifosfamide (IFO). Objectives: To demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the HD-MTX/CDP/DOX/VP-16/IFO [MTX(+)] protocol comparable to CDP/ADM/CBDCA/IFO [MTX(-)] for treating childhood osteosarcoma at Ramathibodi Hospital (1999-2014). Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted of osteosarcoma patients aged less than 18 years treated with two chemotherapeutic regimens between 1999 and 2014. A total of 45 patients received the MTX(-) and 21 the MTX(+) protocol. Results: Overall limb-salvage and amputation rate were 12.9% and 77.7%, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis results for 3-year disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) regardless of treatment regimens were $43.4{\pm}6.0%$ and $53.2{\pm}6.1%$ respectively. The 3-year DFS and OS were improved significantly with the MTX(+) protocol compared to MTX(-) protocol (p=0.010 and p=0.009, log rank test) [$69.8{\pm}10.5%$, $79.8{\pm}9.1%$ for MTX(+) and $31.1{\pm}6.9%$, $42.2{\pm}7.4%$ for MTX(-) protocol, respectively]. Patients with metastatic osteosarcoma treated with the MTX(+) protocol had statistically significant higher 3-year DFS and OS than those treated with the MTX(-) protocol ($66.7{\pm}13.6%$ and $15.0{\pm}8.0%$ for 3-year DFS, p=0.010, $73.3{\pm}13.2%$ and $20{\pm}8.9%$ for 3-year OS, p=0.006, respectively). The independent risk factors for having inferior 3-year DFS and OS were poor histological response (tumor necrosis <90%) and treatment with the MTX(-) protocol. The multivariate analysis identified only the treatment with the MTX(-) protocol as an independent predictor of inferior OS with a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.53 (95% confidence interval of 1.2-10.41, p=0.022). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated the tolerability, feasibility and efficacy of the HDMTX-based regimen improving the survival rate in pediatric osteosarcoma cases, in line with reports from developed countries.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제14권9호
• /
• pp.5355-5360
• /
• 2013

Background: Clarifying the prognostic impact of histological type is an essential issue that may influence the treatment and follow-up planning of newly diagnosed cervical cancer cases. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of histological type on survival and mortality in patients with cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), adenocarcinoma (ADC) and small cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (SNEC). Materials and Methods: All patients with cervical cancer diagnosed and treated at Chiang Mai University Hospital between January 1995 and October 2011 were eligible. We included all patients with SNEC and a random weighted sample of patients with SCC and ADC. We used competing-risks regression analysis to evaluate the association between histological type and cancer-specific survival and mortality. Results: Of all 2,108 patients, 1,632 (77.4%) had SCC, 346 (16.4%) had ADC and 130 (6.2%) had SNEC. Overall, five-year cancer-specific survival was 60.0%, 54.7%, and 48.4% in patients with SCC, ADC and SNEC, respectively. After adjusting for other clinical and pathological factors, patients with SNEC and ADC had higher risk of cancer-related death compared with SCC patients (hazard ratio [HR] 2.6; 95% CI, 1.9-3.5 and HR 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5, respectively). Patients with SNEC were younger and had higher risk of cancer-related death in both early and advanced stages compared with SCC patients (HR 4.9; 95% CI, 2.7-9.1 and HR 2.5; 95% CI, 1.7-3.5, respectively). Those with advanced-stage ADC had a greater risk of cancer-related death (HR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7) compared with those with advanced-stage SCC, while no significant difference was observed in patients with early stage lesions. Conclusion: Histological type is an important prognostic factor among patients with cervical cancer in Thailand. Though patients with SNEC were younger and more often had a diagnosis of early stage compared with ADC and SCC, SNEC was associated with poorest survival. ADC was associated with poorer survival compared with SCC in advanced stages, while no difference was observed at early stages. Further tailored treatment-strategies and follow-up planning among patients with different histological types should be considered.

• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제31권5호
• /
• pp.611-620
• /
• 2018

ASRP(Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program; 저장탄약신뢰성평가) 업무는 인적, 물적 문제로 인하여 모든 탄에 대해 주기적 검사 수행이 어려운 실정으로, 저장탄약 수명예측 연구는 효율적인 ASRP 업무 수행에 기여할 수 있다. 본 연구는 2003년 2016년에 수행한 60,81mm 박격포탄약에 대한 ASRP 결과를 기초로 저장수명 요인을 연구하였다. 기존의 수명예측 연구에서 저장기간을 주요 독립변인으로 분석한 연구방법과는 다르게, 탄약고형태, 기상요인 등 저장환경을 독립변인으로 Cox의 비례위험모형을 활용하여 분석하였다. 그 결과 60, 81mm 박격포탄의 저장수명에 영향을 미치는 요인은 탄약고형태, 최고온도 요인, 강수량 요인으로 분석되었다.