• Title/Summary/Keyword: Survival Probability

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Impact of HIV-1 subtypes on gross deletion in the nef gene after Korean Red Ginseng treatment

  • Cho, Young-Keol;Kim, Jung-Eun;Lee, Jinny
    • Journal of Ginseng Research
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.731-737
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    • 2022
  • Background: The number of primary human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 non-B subtype infections (non-B) and that of reports regarding the differences in the pathogenesis of subtype B and non-B infections are increasing. However, to the best of our knowledge, there have been no reports on gross deletion in the nef gene (g∆nef) in non-B infections. Methods: To determine whether there is a difference in the change in CD4+ T cells after treatment with Korean Red Ginseng (KRG) between patients with subtype B and non-B infections, we retrospectively analyzed and compared the annual decrease in CD4+ T cells (AD) and the proportion of g∆nef in 77 patients who were followed for more than 10 years in the absence of combination antiretroviral therapy. Results: Overall, AD was significantly faster in patients with non-B infections than in those with subtype B infections. Survival analysis showed that the survival probability was significantly higher in subtype B than in non B-infected patients. These differences mainly resulted from significant differences in the amount of KRG and age. In the patients treated with KRG, there was a significant correlation between the amount of KRG and the AD in both subtypes. Interestingly, there was a significant correlation between the amount of KRG and the proportion of g∆nef in patients infected with subtype B, but not in those infected with non-B. The same phenomenon was observed when the KRG dose was adjusted. Conclusion: Our results suggest that non-B may be biologically more stable than subtype B.

Pericardial Versus Porcine Valves for Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement

  • Hong Ju Shin;Wan Kee Kim;Jin Kyoung Kim;Joon Bum Kim;Sung-Ho Jung;Suk Jung Choo;Cheol Hyun Chung;Jae Won Lee
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.136-146
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    • 2022
  • Background and Objectives: There still are controversies on which type between bovine pericardial and porcine valves is superior in the setting of aortic valve replacement (AVR). This study aims to compare clinical outcomes of AVR using between pericardial or porcine valves. Methods: The study involved consecutive 636 patients underwent isolated AVR using stented bioprosthetic valves between January 2000 and May 2016. Of these, pericardial and porcine valves were implanted in 410 (pericardial group) and 226 patients (porcine group), respectively. Clinical outcomes including survival, structural valve deterioration (SVD) and trans-valvular pressure gradient were compared between the groups. To adjust for potential selection bias, inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was conducted. Results: The mean follow-up duration was 60.1±50.2 months. There were no significant differences in the rates of early mortality (3.1% vs. 3.1%; p=0.81) and SVD (0.3%/patient-year [PY] vs. 0.5%/PY; p=0.33) between groups. After adjustment using IPTW, however, landmark mortality analyses showed a significantly lower late (>8 years) mortality risk in pericardial group over porcine group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.61; 95% confidence interval, [CI] 0.41-0.90; p=0.01) while the risks of SVD were not significantly difference between groups (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.12-1.70; p=0.24). Mean pressure gradient across prosthetic AV was lower in the Pericardial group than the Porcine group at both immediate postoperative point and latest follow-up (p values <0.001). Conclusions: In patients undergoing bioprosthetic surgical AVR, bovine pericardial valves showed superior results in terms of postoperative hemodynamic profiles and late survival rates over porcine valves.

Time to presentation and mortality outcomes among patients with diabetes and acute myocardial infarction

  • Min-A Shin;Seok Oh;Min Chul Kim;Doo Sun Sim;Young Joon Hong;Ju Han Kim;Youngkeun Ahn;Myung Ho Jeong
    • The Korean journal of internal medicine
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.110-122
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    • 2024
  • Background/Aims: Due to limited real-world evidence on the association between time to presentation (T2P) and outcomes following acute myocardial infarction and diabetes (AMI-DM), we investigated the characteristics of patients with AMI-DM and their outcomes based on their T2P. Methods: 4,455 patients with AMI-DM from a Korean nationwide observational cohort (2011-2015) were divided into early and late presenters according to symptom-to-door time. The effects of T2P on three-year all-cause mortality were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and survival analysis. Results: The incidence of all-cause mortality was consistently higher in late presenters than in early presenters (11.4 vs. 17.2%; p < 0.001). In the IPTW-adjusted dataset, the incidence of all-cause mortality was numerically higher in late presenters than in early presenters (9.1 vs. 12.4%; p = 0.072). In the survival analysis, the cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in late presenters than in early presenters before and after IPTW. In the subgroup with ST-elevation myocardial infarction, late presenters had a higher incidence of cardiac death than early presenters before (4.8 vs. 10.5%; p < 0.001) and after IPTW (4.2 vs. 9.7%; p = 0.034). In the initial glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c)-stratified analysis, these effects were attenuated in patients with HbA1c ≥ 9.0% before (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.80-2.64) and after IPTW (adjusted HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.40-1.67). Conclusions: Late presentation was associated with higher mortality in patients with AMI-DM; therefore, multifaceted and systematic interventions are needed to decrease pre-hospital delays.

Re-entry Survivability and On-Ground Risk Analysis of Low Earth Orbit Satellite (저궤도 위성의 대기권 재진입 시 생존성 및 피해확률 분석)

  • Jeong, Soon-Woo;Min, Chan-Oh;Lee, Mi-Hyun;Lee, Dae-Woo;Cho, Kyeum-Rae;Bainum, Peter M.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.158-164
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    • 2014
  • LEO(Low Earth Orbit) Satellite which is discarded should be reentered to atmosphere in 25 years by '25 years rule' of IADC(Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) Guidelines. If the parts of satellite are survived from severe aerothermodynamic condition, it could damage to human and property. South Korea operates KOMPSAT-2 and STSAT series as LEO satellite. It is necessary to dispose of them by reentering atmosphere. Therefore this paper analyze the trajectory, survivability, casualty area and casualty probability of a virtual LEO satellite using ESA(European Space Agency)'s DRAMA(Debris Risk Assesment and Mitigation Analysis) tool. As a result, it is noted that casuality area is $15.2742m^2$ and casualty probability is 5.9614E-03 then will be survived 198.831kg.

The Meaning of the Prognostic Factors in Ruptured Middle Cerebral Artery Aneurysm with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

  • Oh, Ji-Woong;Lee, Ji-Yong;Lee, Myeong-Sub;Jung, Hyen-Ho;Whang, Kum;Brain Research Group, Brain Research Group
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.80-84
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    • 2012
  • Objective : This study analyzed the relationship between prognosis and multiple clinical factors of ruptured middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysm with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), to aid in predicting the results of surgical treatment. Methods : Enrolled subjects were 41 patients with ruptured MCA aneurysm with ICH who were treated with surgical clipping. Clinical factors such as gender, age, and initial Glasgow coma scale were assessed while radiological factors such as the volume and location of hematoma, the degree of a midline shift, and aneurysm size were considered retrospectively. Prognosis was evaluated postoperatively by Glasgow outcome scale. Results : Age and prognosis were correlated only in the groups with ICH over 31 mL or ICH at the frontal lobe or sylvian fissure. When initial mental status was good, only patients with ICH on the temporal lobe had a better prognosis. If the midline shift was less than 4.5 mm, the probability of better prognosis was 95.5% (21 of 22). If the midline shift was more than 4.5 mm, the probability of poor prognosis was 42.1% (8 of 19). Patients with ICH less than 31 mL had higher survival rates, whereas if the ICH was more than 31 mL, 41.2% (7 of 17) had a poor clinical pathway. Conclusion : Even if the initial clinical condition of the patient was not promising, by carefully examining and taking into account all factors, neurosurgeons can confidently recommend surgical treatment for these patients.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Campylobacter jejuni in Ground Meat Products in Korea

  • Lee, Jeeyeon;Lee, Heeyoung;Lee, Soomin;Kim, Sejeong;Ha, Jimyeong;Choi, Yukyung;Oh, Hyemin;Kim, Yujin;Lee, Yewon;Yoon, Ki-Sun;Seo, Kunho;Yoon, Yohan
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.565-575
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    • 2019
  • This study evaluated Campylobacter jejuni risk in ground meat products. The C. jejuni prevalence in ground meat products was investigated. To develop the predictive model, survival data of C. jejuni were collected at $4^{\circ}C-30^{\circ}C$ during storage, and the data were fitted using the Weibull model. In addition, the storage temperature and time of ground meat products were investigated during distribution. The consumption amount and frequency of ground meat products were investigated by interviewing 1,500 adults. The prevalence, temperature, time, and consumption data were analyzed by @RISK to generate probabilistic distributions. In 224 samples of ground meat products, there were no C. jejuni-contaminated samples. A scenario with a series of probabilistic distributions, a predictive model and a dose-response model was prepared to calculate the probability of illness, and it showed that the probability of foodborne illness caused by C. jejuni per person per day from ground meat products was $5.68{\times}10^{-10}$, which can be considered low risk.

Chemoradiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone following induction chemotherapy for elderly patients with stage III lung cancer

  • Kim, Dong-Yun;Song, Changhoon;Kim, Se Hyun;Kim, Yu Jung;Lee, Jong Seok;Kim, Jae-Sung
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.176-184
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: It is unclear whether adding concurrent chemotherapy (CT) to definitive radiotherapy (RT) following induction CT is a tolerable and cost effective treatment for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients aged 70 years or older with comorbidities. This study evaluated the actual clinical outcomes between concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) and RT alone following induction CT or not in patients (≥70 years) in a single institution's clinical practice. Materials and Methods: A total of 82 patients with unresectable stage III NSCLC between 2004 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Their treatment tolerance and clinical outcomes such as overall survival (OS), locoregional recurrence (LRR), treatment toxicities and distant metastasis (DM) were evaluated. Early mortality rates were also evaluated as 4-month mortality after RT. Results: Fifty-four patients received CCRT and 28 patients received RT alone. Induction CT before RT was performed for 68.5% and 50.0% in CCRT and RT alone groups. Treatment tolerance was significantly worse in CCRT (p = 0.046). The median survival was 21.1 and 18.1 months for CCRT and RT alone, which was not statistically significant. LRR and DM were also not different. Most early deaths after CCRT were attributed to non-cancer-related mortality. Acute esophagitis of grade ≥2 occurred more following CCRT (p = 0.017). In multivariate analysis, a Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) of ≥5 and a weight loss of ≥5% after RT were associated with poor OS. The factors adversely affecting 4-month survival were a CCI of ≥5 and CCRT. Conclusion: There were no significant differences in OS, LRR, and DM between CCRT and RT alone treatment in elderly patients. However, there was a poorer tolerance and higher incidence of acute esophagitis in the CCRT group. Specifically, when the patients had a CCI of ≥5, RT alone seems to be reasonable with a low probability of early death.

Analysis of the 2015 reform plan of government employees pension system (GEPS) through monte carlo simulations (모의실험을 통한 2015년 공무원 연금제도 개정안의 효과분석)

  • Lee, Jieun;Song, Seongjoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2016
  • Due to the increasing fiscal burden and structural unbalanced premium/benefit costs, the new reform on the government employees pension system (GEPS) was considered even after the recent reform in 2009. This article examines the various effects of recent amendment in 2015 on GEPS using a simple probabilistic model. We consider effects on both sides, the pensioners and the government. First of all, the expected net value of pension payment for an individual employee was calculated based on the supposed survival distribution. The fairness of individual pension holders was compared using the benefit-cost ratio. Secondly, from pension system users' point of view, the default probability and the government subsidy were examined by Monte-carlo simulation. From the simulation experiment, we could see that the 2015 reform plan indeed reduces the default probability and the size of the fiscal burden of government by increasing the premium and decreasing the benefit. However, the size of the effect is not very standout at this moment because the number of new employees who are fully subject to the reform will be much smaller than the number of previous employees for a while. Thus, the effect of the reform is expected to appear in a slow manner.

Lung Cancer Detection by Screening - Presenting Circulating miRNAs as a Promising Next Generation Biomarker Breakthrough

  • Ramshankar, Vijayalakshmi;Krishnamurthy, Arvind
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.2167-2172
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    • 2013
  • Lung cancer remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, accounting for more deaths than any other cause. All the clinical practice guidelines recommended against routine screening for lung cancer have cited lack of robust evidence, at least until a few years back. However, the potential to screen lung cancers has received renewed interest due to superior performance of low dose CT (LD-CT) in detecting early stage cancers. The incremental costs and risks involved due to the invasive procedures in the screened population due to a high false positivity rate questions the use of LD-CT scan as a reliable community based screening tool. There is therefore an urgent need to find a less invasive and a more reliable biomarker that is crucial to increase the probability of early lung cancer detection. This can truly make a difference in lung cancer survival and at the same time be more cost and resource utilization effective. Sampling blood serum being minimally invasive, low risk and providing an easy to obtain biofluid, needs to be explored for potential biomarkers. This review discusses the use of circulatory miRNAs that have been able to discriminate lung cancer patients from disease free controls. Several studies conducted recently suggest that circulating miRNAs may have promising future applications for screening and early detection of lung cancer.

Assessment of casting parts fatigue life for 3MW offshore wind turbine (3MW 해상풍력발전기 주물품의 내구수명 평가)

  • Roh, Gitae;Kang, Wonhyoung;Lee, Seongchan
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2010.11a
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    • pp.189.2-189.2
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is fatigue damage assessment for large sized casting parts (hub and mainframe) of the 3MW offshore wind turbine by computer simulation. Hub and mainframe durability assessment is necessary because wind turbine have to guarantee for 20 years. Fatigue life evaluation must be considered all of fatigue load conditions as the components are wind load transmission path. Palmgren-Miner linear damage accumulation hypothesis is applied for fatigue life estimation with stress-life approach. S-N curve for the spheroid graphite cast iron EN-GJS-400-18-LT is derived according to durability guidelines. Reduction factors were applied for survival probability, surface roughness, material quality and partial safety factor according to Germanischer Lloyd rules. To calculate fatigue damage, stress tensors, extracted from the unity load calculation from ANSYS is multiplied with time track of fatigue loads extracted from GH bladed. Damage accumulation is performed with all of fatigue load conditions at each finite element nodes. In this study maximum nodal damage value is under 1.0. casted parts are safe. This research was financially supported by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy(MKE), Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology(KIAT) and Honam Leading Industry Office through the Leading Industry Development for Economic Region.

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