• 천문학회보
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.40.2-40.2
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• 2011

We investigated solar flare occurrence probability depending on sunspot group classification and its area change. For this study, we used the McIntosh sunspot group classification and then selected most flare-productive six sunspot groups : DKI, DKC, EKI, EKC, FKI and FKC. For each group, we classified it into three sub-groups according to the sunspot group area change : increase, steady and decrease. For sunspot data, we used the NOAA's active region information for 19 years (from 1992.01 to 2010.12). As a result, we found that the probabilities of the all "increase" sub-groups is noticeably higher than those of other sub-groups. In case of FKC McIntosh sunspot group, for example, the M-class flare occurrence probability of the "increase" sub-group is 65% while the "decrease" and "steady" sub-groups are 50% and 44%, respectively. In summary, when sunspot group area increases, the probability of solar flares noticeably increases. This is statistical evidence that magnetic flux emergence is an very important mechanism for triggering solar flares.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.245-251
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• 2012

Since the development of surface magnetic features should reflect the evolution of the solar magnetic field in the deep interior of the Sun, it is crucial to study properties of sunspots and sunspot groups to understand the physical processes working below the solar surface. Here, using the data set of sunspot groups observed at the ButterStar observatory for 3,364 days from 2002 October 16 to 2011 December 31, we investigate temporal change of sunspot groups depending on their Z$\ddot{u}$rich classification type. Our main findings are as follows: (1) There are more sunspot groups in the southern hemisphere in solar cycle 23, while more sunspot groups appear in the northern hemisphere in solar cycle 24. We also note that in the declining phase of solar cycle 23 the decreasing tendency is apparently steeper in the solar northern hemisphere than in the solar southern hemisphere. (2) Some of sunspot group types make a secondary peak in the distribution between the solar maximum and the solar minimum. More importantly, in this particular data set, sunspot groups which have appeared in the solar southern hemisphere make a secondary peak 1 year after a secondary peak occurs in the solar northern hemisphere. (3) The temporal variations of small and large sunspot group numbers are disparate. That is, the number of large sunspot group declines earlier and faster and that the number of small sunspot group begins to rise earlier and faster. (4) The total number of observed sunspot is found to behave more likewise as the small sunspot group does. Hence, according to our findings, behaviors and evolution of small magnetic flux tubes and large magnetic flux tubes seem to be different over solar cycles. Finally, we conclude by briefly pointing out its implication on the space weather forecast.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.88.2-88.2
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• 2012

We investigate solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability depending on McIntosh sunspot classification, its area, and its area change. For this we use the NOAA active region and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive 10 sunspot classification: 'Dko', 'Dai', 'Eai', 'Fai', 'Dki', 'Dkc', 'Eki', 'Ekc', 'Fki', and 'Fkc'. Sunspot area and its change can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. we classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups: 'Large' and 'Small'. In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot group area change: 'Decrease', 'Steady', and 'Increase'. As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the 'Increase' sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the 'Increase' sub-group is three times higher than that of the 'Steady' sub-group. Mean flare occurrence rates and flare probabilities for all sunspot regions increase with the following order: 'Steady', 'Decrease', and 'Increase'. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance major solar flare occurrence. We are going to forecast solar flares based on these results and NOAA scale.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.123.2-123.2
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• 2012

We investigate the solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes. For this we use the NOAA active region data and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive eleven sunspot classes in the McIntosh sunspot group classification. Sunspot area and its changes can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. We classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups by its area: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area changes: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares in the 'Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance the occurrence of major solar flares.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.98-98
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• 2011

We have investigated solar flare probability depending on sunspot classification, its area, and its area change using solar white light data. For this we used the McIntosh sunspot groups with most flare-productive regions : DKI, DKC, EKI, EKC, FKI and FKC. For each group, we classified it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area change : increase, steady, and decrease. For sunspot data, we used the NOAA active region information for 11 years (from January 2000 to December 2010): daily sunspot class and its area corrected for the projection effect. As a result, we find that the mean flare rates and the flare probabilities for the "increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'kc' groups, the mean flare rates of the "increase" sub-groups are more than two times than those of the "steady" sub-groups. This is statistical evidence that magnetic flux emergence is an very important for triggering solar flares since sunspot area increase can be a good proxy of magnetic flux emergence. In addition, we have examined the relationship between sunspot area and solar flare probability. For this, we classified each sunspot group into two sub-groups: large and small. In the case of compact group, the solar flare probabilities noticeably increase with its area.

• 천문학논총
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.113-121
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• 1999

We have analyzed 251 data of the daily sunspot observations during the period of January 3 to December 31 in 1998 and present the daily relative sunspot numbers. During the 1998, the prehmmary annual average of the relative sunspot numbers is found to be 84.8 based on 26.6 distinct spots in a single group for 4.6 spot groups. According to the appearance of 286 spot groups, our analysis shows that the mean life time of spot group is about 4 day and 23.6 hours.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.102.2-102.2
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• 2011

Sunspots usually appear in a group which can be classified by certain morphological criteria. In this study we examine the moments which are statistical parameters computed by summing over every pixels of contours, in order to quantify the morphological characteristics of a sunspot group. The moments can be additional characteristics to the sunspot group classification such as McIntosh classification. We are developing a program for image processing, detection of contours and computation of the moments using continuum images from SOHO/MDI. We apply the program to count the sunspot numbers from 303 continuum images in 2003. The sunspot numbers obtained by the program are compared with those by SIDC. The comparison shows that they have a good correlation (r=89%). We are extending this application to automatic sunspot classification (e.g., McIntosh classification) and flare forecasting.

• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.76.1-76.1
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• 2014

We investigate the solar flare and CME occurrence rate and probability depending on sunspot class and its area change. These CMEs are front-side, partial and full halo CMEs associated with X-ray flares. For this we use the Solar Region Summary(SRS) from NOAA, NGDC flare catalog, and SOHO/LASCO CME catalog for 16 years (from January 1996 to December 2011). We classify each sunspot class into two sub-groups: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each class, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot class area change: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". In terms of sunspot class area, the solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities noticeably increase at compact and large sunspot groups (e.g., 'Fkc'). In terms of sunspot area change, solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. For example, in case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' class, the flare occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. In case of the 'Eai' class, the CME occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-groups is five time higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results demonstrate statistically that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance solar flare and CME occurrence, especially for compact and large sunspot groups.

• 천문학논총
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.57-66
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• 1995

We analyze 271 data of the daily sunspot observations during the period of January 1 to December 31 in 1994 and present the daily relative sunspot numbers. During the 1994, the preliminary annual average of the relative sunspot numbers is found to be 32.9 based on 12.4 distinct spots in a single group for 2.2 spot groups. According to the appearance of 146 spot groups, our analysis shows that the mean life time of spot group is about 4 day and 19.2 hours.

• 천문학논총
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.55-64
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• 1998

We have analyzed 255 data of the daily sunspot observations during the period of January 3 to December 31 in 1997 and present the daily relative sunspot numbers. During the 1997, the preliminary annual average of the relative sunspot numbers found to be 28.2 based on 9.7 distinct spots in a single group for 1.4 spot groups. According to the appearance of 366 spot groups, our analysis shows that the mean life time of spot group is about 4 day and 17.0 hours.