• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.99-106
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• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.spc1
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• pp.37-44
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• 2003

In this paper, we review recent studies on the magnetic helicity changes of solar active regions by photospheric horizontal motions. Recently, Chae(200l) developed a methodology to determine the magnetic helicity change rate via photospheric horizontal motions. We have applied this methodology to four cases: (1) NOAA AR 8100 which has a series of homologous X-ray flares, (2) three active regions which have four eruptive major X-ray flares, (3) NOAA AR 9236 which has three eruptive X-class flares, and (4) NOAA AR 8668 in which a large filament was under formation. As a result, we have found several interesting results. First, the rate of magnetic helicity injection strongly depends on an active region and its evolution. Its mean rate ranges from 4 to $17 {\times} 10^{40}\;Mx^2\;h^{-1}$. Especially when the homologous flares occurred and when the filament was formed, significant rates of magnetic helicity were continuously deposited in the corona via photospheric shear flows. Second, there is a strong positive correlation between the magnetic helicity accumulated during the flaring time interval of the homologous flares in AR 8100 and the GOES X-ray flux integrated over the flaring time. This indicates that the occurrence of a series of homologous flares is physically related to the accumulation of magnetic helicity in the corona by photospheric shearing motions. Third, impulsive helicity variations took place near the flaring times of some strong flares. These impulsive variations whose time scales are less than one hour are attributed to localized velocity kernels around the polarity inversion line. Fourth, considering the filament eruption associated with an X1.8 flare started about 10 minutes before the impulsive variation of the helicity change rate, we suggest that the impulsive helicity variation is not a cause of the eruptive solar flare but its result. Finally, we discuss the physical implications on these results and our future plans.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.53 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2020

The recent study of Chae et al. (2017) found a one-to-one correspondence between plasma blobs outflowing along a ray formed after a coronal mass ejection (CME) and small X-ray flares. In the present work, we have examined the spatial configuration and the eruption process of the flares that are associated with the blobs by analyzing EUV images and magnetograms taken by the SDO/AIA and HMI. We found that the main flare and the successive small flares took place in a quadrupolar magnetic configuration characterized by predominant magnetic fields of positive polarity, two minor magnetic fragments of negative polarity, and a curved polarity inversion line between them, which suggests that the formation process of the blobs may be similar to that of the parent CME. We also found that the successive flares resulted in a gradual change of the quadrupolar magnetic configuration, and the relevant migration of flaring kernels. The three-dimensional geometry and the property of the current sheet, that is often supposed to be embedded in an observed post-CME ray, seem to keep changing because of mutual feedback between the successive flares and the temporal change of the magnetic field configuration. Our results suggest that the observed post-CME rays may not reflect the characteristics of the current sheet responsible for the impulsive phase of the flare.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.29 no.spc1
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• pp.291-294
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• 1996

The .Japanese sun observing satellite, Yohkoh, has been operational for five years and her scientific instruments are still in good condition. They have revealed ample of evidences that solar flares were triggered by magnetic reconnection, which was, for the first time, clearly indicated to take place in the solar corona. Cusp structures in soft X-rays and a new type of hard X-ray sources at the top of flaring loops have strongly supported the scenario originally proposed by C-S-H-KP. Nonthermal energy input in hard X-rays and thermal energy estimated from soft X-rays are fundamentally consistent with the interpretation of thick-target and chromospheric-evaporation models (Neupert effect). X-ray jets, another discovery of Yohkoh, were also associated with magnetic reconnection, as a result of the interaction of emerging fluxes with pre-existing coronal loops. Temperature structures of active regions, quiet sun, and coronal holes had very dynamic differential-emission-measure (DEM) distributions and high-temperature tails of DEM were considered to come from the contribution of flare-like activity.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.171-177
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• 2004

X-ray plasma ejections often occurred around the impulsive phases of solar flares and have been well observed by the SXT aboard Yohkoh. Though the X-ray plasma ejections show various morphological shapes, there has been no attempt at classifying the morphological groups for a large sample of the X-ray plasma ejections. In this study, we have classified 137 X-ray plasma ejections according to their shape for the first time. Our classification criteria are as follows: (1) a loop type shows ejecting plasma with the shape of loops, (2) a spray type has a continuous stream of plasma without showing any typical shape, (3) a jet type shows collimated motions of plasma, (4) a confined ejection shows limited motions of plasma near a flaring site. As a result, we classified the flare-associated X-ray plasma ejections into five groups as follows: loop-type (60 events), spray-type (40 events), jet-type (11 events), confined ejection (18 events), and others (8 events). As an illustration, we presented time sequence images of several typical events to discuss their morphological characteristics, speed, CME association, and magnetic field configuration. We found that the jet-type events tend to have higher speeds and better association with CMEs than those of the loop-type events. It is also found that the CME association (11/11) of the jet-type events is much higher than that (5/18) of the confined ejections. These facts imply that the physical characteristics of the X-ray plasma ejections are closely associated with magnetic field configurations near the reconnection regions.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.61-66
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• 2003

We have examined the relationship between the speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the GOES X-ray peak fluxes of associated flares. Noting that previous studies were possibly affected by projection effects and random association effects, we have considered two sets of carefully selected CME-flare events: four homologous events and four well-observed limb events. In the respective samples, good correlations are found between the CME speeds and the GOES X-ray peak fluxes of the associated flares. A similarly good correlation is found for all eight events of both samples when the CME speeds of the homologous events are corrected for projection effect. Our results suggest that a close relationship possibly exists between CME kinematics and flaring processes.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.46.2-46.2
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• 2016

We explore the similarity and difference of the quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) observed during the solar and stellar X-ray flares. For this, we identified 59 solar QPPs in the X-ray observed by the Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and 52 stellar QPPs from X-ray Multi Mirror Newton observatory (XMM-Newton). The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method and least-square-fit with the damped sine function are applied to obtain the periods and damping times of the QPPs. We found that (1) the periods and damping times of the stellar QPPs are 7.80 and 13.80 min, which are comparable with those of the solar QPPs 0.55 and 0.97 min. (2) The ratio of the damping times to the periods observed in the stellar QPPs are found to be statistically identical to the solar QPPs, (3) The damping times are well describe by the power law. The power indices of the solar and stellar QPPs are $0.891{\pm}0.172$ and $0.953{\pm}0.198$, which are consistent with the previous results. Thus, we conclude that the underlying mechanism responsible for the stellar QPPs are the natural oscillations of the flaring or adjacent coronal loops as in the Sun.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.spc1
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• pp.63-73
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• 2003

Solar flares present a number of radiative characteristics indicative of kinetic processes of high energy particles. Proper understanding of the kinetic processes, however, relies on how well we can separate the acceleration from transport characteristics. In this paper, we discuss microwave and hard X-ray bursts as a powerful tool in investigating the acceleration and transport of high energy electrons. After a brief review of the studies devoted to the kinetic process of solar flare particles, we cast them into a simple formulation which allows us to handle the injection, trap, and precipitation of flare electrons self-consistently. The formulation is then taken as a basis for interpreting and analyzing a set of impulsive and gradual bursts occurred on 2001 April 6 observed with the Owens Valley Solar Array, and HXT/WBS onboard Yohkoh satellite. We quantify the acceleration, trap, and precipitation processes during each burst in terms of relevant time scales, and also determine ambient density and magnetic field. Our result suggests that it should be the acceleration property, in particular, electron pitch angle distribution, rather than the trap condition, that is mainly responsible for the distinctive properties of the impulsive and gradual flares.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.29 no.spc1
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• pp.321-322
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• 1996

Using the data on the occurrences of the Ho: and soft X-ray flares for the time interval of January 1, 1986-May :31, 1994, we have studied the middle term(30-300days) pericities of the solar flare production during the activity cycle 22. Power analysis of the time seies of daily H$\alpha$ flare index in the northern hemisphere shows prominent periodicities at 220, 120, 109, and 92 days(see Figures l(a) and l(b)), while in the southern hemisphere, those at 267, 213, 183, 167, and 107 days are apparent, though their peaks are not so distint as those in the northern hemisphere. Periodogram of daily soft X-ray flare index also reveal the periodicities at 279, 205, 164, 117, and 91 days in the northern hemisphere, and at 266, 220, 199, 162, 120, and 100 days in the southern hemisphere. Howeer, the 155-day periodicity reported for the earlier cycles, 19, 20, and 21, could not be confirmed in our analysis. to be submitted to Solar Physics; an extended abstract.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.133-144
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• 2019

We develop forecast models of daily probabilities of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten magnetic parameters characterizing size, distribution, and non-potentiality of vector magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray flare data. The magnetic parameters are classified into three types: the total unsigned parameters, the total signed parameters, and the mean parameters. We divide the data into two sets chronologically: 70% for training and 30% for testing. The empirical relationships between the parameters and flaring rates are used to predict flare occurrence probabilities for a given magnetic parameter value. Major results of this study are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with ten parameters having correlation coefficients above 0.85. Second, logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by linear equations. Third, using total unsigned and signed parameters achieved better performance for predicting flares than the mean parameters in terms of verification measures of probabilistic and converted binary forecasts. We conclude that the total quantity of non-potentiality of magnetic fields is crucial for flare forecasting among the magnetic parameters considered in this study. When this model is applied for operational use, it can be used using the data of 21:00 TAI with a slight underestimation of 2-6.3%.