• Title/Summary/Keyword: Summer monsoon

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Assessment of 6-Month Lead Prediction Skill of the GloSea5 Hindcast Experiment (GloSea5 모형의 6개월 장기 기후 예측성 검증)

  • Jung, Myung-Il;Son, Seok-Woo;Choi, Jung;Kang, Hyun-Suk
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.323-337
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    • 2015
  • This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of several climate indices that influence on East Asian climate in the GloSea5 hindcast experiment. Such indices include Nino3.4, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), various summer and winter Asian monsoon indices. The model's prediction skill of these indices is evaluated by computing the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS) for ensemble mean values over the period of 1996~2009. In general, climate indices that have low seasonal variability are predicted well. For example, in terms of ACC, Nino3.4 index is predicted well at least 6 months in advance. The IOD index is also well predicted in late summer and autumn. This contrasts with the prediction skill of AO index which shows essentially no skill beyond a few months except in February and August. Both summer and winter Asian monsoon indices are also poorly predicted. An exception is the Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) index that exhibits a prediction skill up to 4- to 6-month lead time. However, when MSSS is considered, most climate indices, except Nino3.4 index, show a negligible prediction skill, indicating that conditional bias is significant in the model. These results are only weakly sensitive to the number of ensemble members.

The 40~50Day Intraseasonal Oscillation of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite High Cloud Amount (GMS 상층운량의 40~50일 계절만 진동)

  • 하경자;서애숙
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.5 no.5
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    • pp.619-633
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    • 1996
  • Intraseasonal variability of the tropical convection over the Indian/western Pacific is studied using the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite high cloud amount. This study is directed to find the tropical-extratropical interaction in the frequency range of intraseasonal and interannual variabilities of the summer monsoon occured over the domain of 90E-171W and 495-50N. Especially, in order to investigate the intraseasonal interaction of last Asia summer monsoon associated with the tropical convections in the high cloud amounts, the spatial and time structure of the intraseasonal oscillation for the movement-and the evolution of the large-scale connections are studied. To describe the spatial and the time evolution, the extended empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied. The first mode may be considered to a normal structure, indicating that the strong convection band over 90E-120E is extended to sastward but this mode was detected as the intraseasonal variability during summer monsoon. It is found that the dominant intraseasonal mode of the tropical convection consists of the spatial changes over a broad period range centered around 40~50days.

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The Distribution of POC and DOC in Four Reservoirs on the North Han River and the Relationship with Algal Density (북한강수계 호수의 POC와 DOC 분포와 조류밀도의 관계)

  • Kim, Kiyong;Kim, Bomchul;Eom, Jaesung;Choi, Youngsoon;Jang, Changwon;Park, Hae-kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.840-848
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    • 2009
  • Spatial and temporal distributions of POC and DOC were surveyed in the North Han River system, Korea The proportion of algal cells was calculated in four reservoirs (Lakes Soyang, Paro, Chunchon, and Uiam). Monthly average DOC concentrations ranged from 1.5 to 2.3 mg C/L, and POC showed larger variation than DOC (range 0.3 to 1.9 mg C/L). The average proportion of POC in TOC was higher than those of typical natural lakes. Due to the influence of the Asian summer monsoon, the seasonal variation in POC concentration depended on heavy rain events occurring during the summer. POC concentrations increased during the summer monsoon season due to turbid storm runoff laden with debris, while DOC concentrations did not increase. The highest POC concentrations were observed in Lake Soyang in 2006 when a severe rain event occurred. In two deep stratified reservoirs (Lake Soyang and Paro) storm runoffs formed an intermediate turbidity layer with high POC and chlorophyll concentrations which is thought to originate from terrestrial debris and periphyton transported by inflowing streams. The proportion of algal cells in total POC was much lower than for most natural lakes, and it varied with season; low in the monsoon season and high in dry seasons with algal blooms. An analysis of POC concentration and chlorophyll a concentration showed that the ratio of POC/Chl.a varied from 24 to 80.

Application of CE-QUAL-W2 [v3.2] to Andong Reservoir: Part I: Simulations of Hydro-thermal Dynamics, Dissolved Oxygen and Density Current

  • Bhattarai, Prasid Ram;Kim, Yoon-Hee;Heo, Woo-Myoung
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.247-263
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    • 2008
  • A two-dimensional (2D) reservoir hydrodynamics and water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2, is employed to simulate the hydrothermal behavior and density current regime in Andong Reservoir. Observed data used for model forcing and calibration includes: surface water level, water temperature, dissolved oxygen and suspended solids concentration. The model was calibrated to the year of 2003 and verified with continuous run from 2000 till 2004. Without major adjustments, the model accurately simulated surface water levels including the events of large storm. Deep-water reservoirs, like Andong Reservoir, located in the Asian Monsoon region begin to stratify in summer and overturn in fall. This mixing pattern as well as the descending thermocline, onset and duration of stratification and timing of turnover phenomenon were well reproduced by the Andong Model. The temperature field and distinct thermocline are simulated to within $2^{\circ}C$ of observed data. The model performed well in simulating not only the dissolved oxygen profiles but also the metalimnetic dissolved minima phenomenon, a common1y occurring phenomenon in deep reservoirs of temperate regions. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of model calibration for surface water elevation, temperature and dissolved oxygen were 0.0095 m, $1.82^{\circ}C$, and $1.13\;mg\;L^{-1}$, respectively. The turbid storm runoff, during the summer monsoon, formed an intermediate layer of about 15 m thickness, moved along the metalimnion until being finally discharged from the dam. This mode of transport of density current, a common characteristic of various other large reservoirs in the Asian summer monsoon region, was well tracked by the model.

Prediction Skill for East Asian Summer Monsoon Indices in a KMA Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) (기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea5)의 여름철 동아시아 몬순 지수 예측 성능 평가)

  • Lee, So-Jeong;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Lee, Sang-Min;Hwang, Seung-On;Lee, Johan;Boo, Kyung-On
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.293-309
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    • 2020
  • There are lots of indices that define the intensity of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in climate systems. This paper assesses the prediction skill for EASM indices in a Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) that is currently operating at KMA. Total 5 different types of EASM indices (WNPMI, EAMI, WYI, GUOI, and SAHI) are selected to investigate how well GloSea5 reproduces them using hindcasts with 12 ensemble members with 1~3 lead months. Each index from GloSea5 is compared to that from ERA-Interim. Hindcast results for the period 1991~2010 show the highest prediction skill for WNPMI which is defined as the difference between the zonal winds at 850 hPa over East China Sea and South China Sea. WYI, defined as the difference between the zonal winds of upper and lower level over the Indian Ocean far from East Asia, is comparatively well captured by GloSea5. Though the prediction skill for EAMI which is defined by using meridional winds over areas of East Asia and Korea directly affected by EASM is comparatively low, it seems that EAMI is useful for predicting the variability of precipitation by EASM over East Asia. The regressed atmospheric fields with EASM index and the correlation with precipitation also show that GloSea5 best predicts the synoptic environment of East Asia for WNPMI among 5 EASM indices. Note that the result in this study is limited to interpret only for GloSea5 since the prediction skill for EASM index depends greatly on climate forecast model systems.

Long-term Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Epilimnetic Nutrients (N, P), Chlorophyll-a, and Suspended Solids at the Dam Site of Yongdam Reservoir and Empirical Models

  • An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.214-225
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    • 2011
  • The objectives of the study were to evaluate seasonal patterns of epilimnetic water quality, and determine interannual eutrophication patterns at the dam site of Yong-dam Reservoir using long-term data during 2002~2009. Ionic dilutions, based on specific conductivity, occurred in the summer period in response to the intense monsoon rain and inflow, and suspended solid analysis indicated that the reservoir was clear except for the monsoon. Seasonality of nitrogen contents varied depending on the types of nitrogen and responded to ionic dilution; Ammonia-nitrogen ($NH_4$-N) peaked at dry season but nitrate-nitrogen ($NO_3$-N) peaked in the monsoon when the ionic dilution occurred. The maxima of $NO_3$-N seemed to be related with external summer N-loading from the watershed and active nitrogen fixation of bluregreens in the summer. $NO_3$-N was major determinant (>50%) of the total nitrogen pool and relative proportion of $NH_4$-N was minor. Long-term annual $NO_3$-N and TDN showed continuous increasing trends from 2004 to 2009, whereas TP and TDP showed decreasing trends along with chlorophyll-a (CHL) values. Empirical model analysis of log-transformed nutrients and N : P ratios on the CHL showed that the reservoir CHL had a stronger linear function with TP ($R^2$=0.89, p<0.001) than TN ($R^2$=0.35, p=0.120). Overall results suggest that eutrophication progress, based on TP and CHL, is slow down over the study period and this was mainly due to reduced phosphorns, which is considered as primary nutrient by the empirical model.

Relationship of South China Sea summer monsoon with ENSO (남중국해 여름몬순과 ENSO와의 가능한 상관관계)

  • Choi, Jae-Won;Park, Ki-Jun;Kim, Jeoung-Yun;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.827-840
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzed a correlation between South China Sea summer (June to September) monsoon (SCSSM) and the ENSO for the last 32 years (1979 to 2010). There was a correlation that the higher (lower) the SST in the $Ni{\tilde{n}}o-3.4$ region was, the weaker (stronger) the SCSSM intensity was. To identify the reason for this correlation, a difference of means between 8 El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ years and 8 La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years (June to September). The analysis on the difference between two groups with respect to the 850 hPa stream flows showed that there were anomalous huge cyclones in the subtropical Pacific in the both hemispheres so that cold and dry anomalous northerlies were strengthened in the South China Sea relatively while anomalous westerlies were strengthened from the Maritime Continent to the off the coast of Chile. The analysis on the difference between two groups with respect to the 200 hPa stream flows showed that the opposite anomalous pressure system pattern to that in the 850 hPa stream flows were shown. In the subtropical Pacific of the both hemispheres, anomalous anticyclones existed so that anomalous easterlies were strengthened from the Maritime Continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Considering the anomalous atmospheric circulations in the upper and lower layers of the troposphere, upward airflows from the equatorial central and eastern Pacific were downward in the South China Sea and the Maritime Continent, which was a structure of anomalous atmospheric circulations. This means that the Walker Circulation was weakened and it was a typical structure of atmospheric circulations revealed in El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ years.

Lightning activity in summer monsoon precipitation over Korean peninsula

  • Kar, S.K.;Ha, Kyung-Ja
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.366-366
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    • 2002
  • Cloud-to ground lightning and total precipitation over Korean peninsula during the summer monsoon season are studied extensively with a special emphasis on the characteristics of convective precipitation. Ten years (1988-1997) lightning and rainfall data and a temporal and spatial scale of one month and 10$^2$ km$^2$ respectively are used to calculate the monthly number of CG lightning flash count. Monsoonal convective activity is higher over the west coast with maxima at two different regions, one in the northern part which increases nortwestward and the other is at the middle west coast of Korea increasing towards the west coast. East coast represents the minimum value of monsoonal convective activity. In the east coast of Korean peninsula, particularly in the region east of Tae-back mountain, the value of Rain yield, (which is defined as the ratio of total precipitation to CG flash count over a common area), is maximum with an average value of 3$\times$10$^{8}$ kg fl$^{-1}$, while the minimum value of rain yield is occurred in the west of Tae-back mountain, with an average value of 0.8$\times$10$^{8}$ kg fl$^{-1}$. Results show in the west coast stations, nearly 82% of the total rainfall is convective in nature, at the middle of the peninsula 53% of the total rain is convective while in the east coast stations 46% contribution from the convective rain is seen. Kanghwa receives the maximum convective rain while at Ulsan the convective rain is minimum. Correlation coefficient between the total precipitation and CG lightning during the summer monsoon season is 0.54.

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