• Title/Summary/Keyword: Success Probability

Search Result 273, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Decision Making on the Non surgical, Surgical Treatment on Chronic Adult Periodontitis (만성 성인성 치주염 치료시 비외과적, 외과적 방법에 대한 의사결정)

  • Song, Si-Eun;Li, Seung-Won;Cho, Kyoo-Sung;Chai, Jung-Kiu;Kim, Chong-Kwan
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
    • /
    • v.28 no.4
    • /
    • pp.645-660
    • /
    • 1998
  • The purpose of this study was to make and ascertain a decision making process on the base of patient-oriented utilitarianism in the treatment of patients of chronic adult periodontitis. Fifty subjects were chosen in Yonsei Dental hospital and the other fifty were chosen in Severance dental hospital according to the selection criteria. Fifty four patients agreed in this study. NS group(N=32) was treated with scaling and root planing without any surgical intervention, the other S group(N=22) done with flap operation. During the active treatment and healing time, all patients of both groups were educated about the importance of oral hygiene and controlled every visit to the hospital. When periodontal treatment needed according to the diagnostic results, some patients were subjected to professional tooth cleaning and scaling once every 3 months according to an individually designed oral hygienic protocol. Probing depth was recorded on baseline and 18 months after treatments. A questionnaire composed of 6 kinds(hygienic easiness, hypersensitivity, post treatment comfort, complication, functional comfort, compliance) of questions was delivered to each patient to obtain the subjective evaluation regarding the results of therapy. The decision tree for the treatment of adult periodontal disease was made on the result of 2 kinds of periodontal treatment and patient's ubjective evaluation. The optimal path was calculated by using the success rate of the results as the probability and utility according to relative value and the economic value in the insurance system. The success rate to achieve the diagnostic goal of periodontal treatment as the remaining pocket depth less than 3mm and without BOP was $0.83{\pm}0.12$ by non surgical treatment and $0.82{\pm}0.14$ by surgical treatment without any statistically significant difference. The moderate success rate of more than 4mm probing pocket depth were 0.17 together. The utilities of non-surgical treatment results were 100 for a result with less than 3mm probing pocket depth, 80 for the other results with more than 4mm probing pocket depth, 0 for the extraction. Those of surgical treatment results were the same except 75 for the results with more than 4mm. The pooling results of subjective evaluation by using a questionnaire were 60% for satisfaction level and 40% for no satisfaction level in the patient group receiving nonsurgical treatment and 33% and 67% in the other group receiving surgical treatment. The utilities for 4 satisfaction levels were 100, 75, 60, 50 on the base of that the patient would express the satisfaction level with normal distribution. The optimal path of periodontal treatment was rolled back by timing the utility on terminal node and the success rate, the distributed ratio of patient's satisfaction level. Both results of the calculation was non surgical treatment. Therefore, it can be said that non-surgical treatment may be the optimal path for this decision tree of treatment protocol if the goal of the periodontal treatment is to achieve the remaining probing pocket depth of less than 3mm for adult chronic periodontitis and if the utilitarian philosophy to maximise the expected utility for the patients is advocated.

  • PDF

Efficient Fault-Tolerant Multicast on Hypercube Multicomputer System (하이퍼 큐브 컴퓨터에서 효과적인 오류 허용 다중전송기법)

  • 명훈주;김성천
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
    • /
    • v.30 no.5_6
    • /
    • pp.273-279
    • /
    • 2003
  • Hypercube multicomputers have been drawing considerable attention from many researchers due to their regular structure and short diameter. One of keys to the performance of Hypercube is the efficiency of communication among processors. Among several communication patterns, multicast is important, which is found in a variety of applications as data replication and signal processing. As the number of processors increases, the probability of occurrences of fault components also increases. So it would be desirable to design an efficient scheme that multicasts messages in the presence of faulty component. In fault-tolerant routing and multicast, there are local information based scheme, global information based scheme and limited information based scheme in terms of information. In general, limited information is easy to obtain and maintain by compressing information in a concise format. In this paper, we propose a new routing scheme and a new multicast scheme using recently proposed fully reachability information scheme and new local information scheme. The proposed multicast scheme increases multicast success possibility and reduce deroute cases. Experiments show that multicast success possibility can increase at least 15% compared to previous method.

A Study on the U.S Emergency Communications Operating System and Standard Operating Procedures Analysis (미국 재난통신 운영체계 및 표준운영절차 분석 연구)

  • Han, Cheol-Hee;Park, Su-Hyeong;Yoon, Myong-O
    • Fire Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.31 no.5
    • /
    • pp.78-86
    • /
    • 2017
  • Disasters in South Korea are taking on more diverse and intricate aspects than before, while being affected by the industrial development and deterioration of the cities. Therefore, it is urgently needed for success in disaster countermeasures to secure emergency communications operating system which would make it possible to share various information between the control tower and field personnel quickly and accurately. This study proposes a method of improving the national emergency communications operating system based on the Federal disaster management system, emergency communications system, and Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) employed in the US, which is the leading country in the field of disaster management. First, the organization of the emergency communications needs to be more systematized than in the past. The organization of the emergency communications of the central and local governments have to be administered according to their different roles and objectives. Furthermore, they must cooperate with each other based on interoperability. Second, emergency communications councils need to be established, composed of representatives related to disasters, and national and regional units need to be formed and operated separately. Third, the SOPs should not only cover both the operational and technical elements, but also assign the roles and responsibilities to the members of the disaster communications system. These improvements will assure the correct functioning of the disaster communications system in the field, which is expected to increase the probability of success in disaster countermeasures.

Multi-Hop Vehicular Cloud Construction and Resource Allocation in VANETs (VANET 망에서 다중 홉 클라우드 형성 및 리소스 할당)

  • Choi, Hyunseok;Nam, Youngju;Lee, Euisin
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
    • /
    • v.8 no.11
    • /
    • pp.263-270
    • /
    • 2019
  • Vehicular cloud computing is a new emerging technology that can provide drivers with cloud services to enable various vehicular applications. A vehicular cloud is defined as a set of vehicles that share their own resources. Vehicles should collaborate with each other to construct vehicular clouds through vehicle-to-vehicle communications. Since collaborating vehicles to construct the vehicular cloud have different speeds, directions and locations respectively, the vehicular cloud is constructed in multi-hop communication range. Due to intermittent wireless connectivity and low density of vehicles with the limited resources, the construction of vehicular cloud with multi-hop communications has become challenging in vehicular environments in terms of the service success ratio, the service delay, and the transmitted packet number. Thus, we propose a multi-hop vehicular cloud construction protocol that increases the service success ratio and decreases the service delay and the transmitted packet number. The proposed protocol uses a connection time-based intermediate vehicle selection scheme to reduce the cloud failure probability of multi-hop vehicular cloud. Simulation results conducted in various environments verify that the proposed protocol achieves better performance than the existing protocol.

Randomizing Sequences of Finite Length (유한 순서열의 임의화)

  • Huh, Myung-Hoe;Lee, Yong-Goo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.189-196
    • /
    • 2010
  • It is never an easy task to physically randomize the sequence of cards. For instance, US 1970 draft lottery resulted in a social turmoil since the outcome sequence of 366 birthday numbers showed a significant relationship with the input order (Wikipedia, "Draft Lottery 1969", Retrieved 2009/05/01). We are motivated by Laplace's 1825 book titled Philosophical Essay on Probabilities that says "Suppose that the numbers 1, 2, ..., 100 are placed, according to their natural ordering, in an urn, and suppose further that, after having shaken the urn, to shuffle the numbers, one draws one number. It is clear that if the shuffling has been properly done, each number will have the same chance of being drawn. But if we fear that there are small differences between them depending on the order in which the numbers were put into the urn, we can decrease these differences considerably by placing these numbers in a second urn in the order in which they are drawn from the first urn, and then shaking the second urn to shuffle the numbers. These differences, already imperceptible in the second urn, would be diminished more and more by using a third urn, a fourth urn, &c." (translated by Andrew 1. Dale, 1995, Springer. pp. 35-36). Laplace foresaw what would happen to us in 150 years later, and, even more, suggested the possible tool to handle the problem. But he did omit the detailed arguments for the solution. Thus we would like to write the supplement in modern terms for Laplace in this research note. We formulate the problem with a lottery box model, to which Markov chain theory can be applied. By applying Markov chains repeatedly, one expects the uniform distribution on k states as stationary distribution. Additionally, we show that the probability of even-number of successes in binomial distribution with trials and the success probability $\theta$ approaches to 0.5, as n increases to infinity. Our theory is illustrated to the cases of truncated geometric distribution and the US 1970 draft lottery.

Discrimination of the commercial Korean native chicken population using microsatellite markers

  • Choi, Nu Ri;Seo, Dong Won;Jemaa, Slim Ben;Sultana, Hasina;Heo, Kang Nyeong;Jo, Cheorun;Lee, Jun Heon
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.57 no.2
    • /
    • pp.5.1-5.8
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: Korean native chicken (KNC) is a well-known breed due to its superior meat taste. This breed, however, owing to a low growth rate, has a high market price. In order to overcome this disadvantage, the National Institute of Animal Science (NIAS) in Korea developed a commercial KNC breed, named Woorimatdag version 2 (WM2), an upgraded version of the Woorimatdag (WM1) breed and the WM2 was created by crossing the KNC with meat type breeds. This study aims to discriminate between WM2 and other chicken breeds using microsatellite (MS) markers. Methods: A total of 302 individuals from eight Korean chicken populations were examined. The genetic diversity and population structure analysis were investigated using Cervus, API-CALC, STRUCTURE, PowerMarker programs. Results: Based on heterozygosity and polymorphic information content (PIC) values, 30 MS markers were initially selected from 150 markers. The identified average number of alleles (Na), expected heterozygosity, and PIC values for the WM2 samples were 7.17, 0.741, and 0.682, respectively. Additionally, the paternity of individuals was assigned with a success rate of greater than 99% using 12 markers, the best minimum number of markers. The 12 selected markers contained heterozygosity and PIC values above 0.7 and probability of identity values around zero. Using these markers, the determined probability of identity (PI), $PI_{half-sibs}$, and $PI_{sibs}$ values were 3.23E-33, 5.03E-22, and 8.61E-08, respectively. Conclusions: WM2 is well differentiated with respect to other chicken breeds based on estimated genetic distances. The results presented here will contribute to the identification of commercial WM2 chicken in the market.

A Chosen Plaintext Linear Attack On Block Cipher Cipher CIKS-1 (CIKS-1 블록 암호에 대한 선택 평문 선형 공격)

  • 이창훈;홍득조;이성재;이상진;양형진;임종인
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.47-57
    • /
    • 2003
  • In this paper, we firstly evaluate the resistance of the reduced 5-round version of the block cipher CIKS-1 against linear cryptanalysis(LC) and show that we can attack full-round CIKS-1 with \ulcorner56-bit key through the canonical extension of our attack. A feature of the CIKS-1 is the use of both Data-Dependent permutations(DDP) and internal key scheduling which consist in data dependent transformation of the round subkeys. Taking into accout the structure of CIKS-1 we investigate linear approximation. That is, we consider 16 linear approximations with p=3/4 for 16 parallel modulo $2^2$ additions to construct one-round linear approximation and derive one-round linear approximation with the probability P=1/2+$2^{-17}$ by Piling-up lemma. Then we present 3-round linear approximation with 1/2+$2^{-17}$ using this one-round approximation and attack the reduced 5-round CIKS-1 with 64-bit block by LC. In conclusion we present that our attack requires $2^{38}$chosen plaintexts with a probability of success of 99.9% and about $2^{67-7}$encryption times to recover the last round key.(But, for the full-round CIKS-1, our attack requires about $2^{166}$encryption times)

Practical Biasing Power Analysis breaking Side Channel Attack Countermeasures based on Masking-Shuffling techniques (마스킹-셔플링 부채널 대응법을 해독하는 실용적인 편중전력분석)

  • Cho, Jong-Won;Han, Dong-Guk
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
    • /
    • v.49 no.9
    • /
    • pp.55-64
    • /
    • 2012
  • Until now, Side Channel Attack has been known to be effective to crack decrypt key such as smart cards, electronic passports and e-ID card based on Chip. Combination of Masking and shuffling methods have been proposed practical countermeasure. Newly, S.Tillich suggests biased-mask using template attack(TA) to attack AES with masking and shuffling. However, an additional assumption that is acquired template information previously for masking value is necessary in order to apply this method. Moreover, this method needs to know exact time position of the target masking value for higher probability of success. In this paper, we suggest new practical method called Biasing Power Analysis(BPA) to find a secret key of AES based on masking-shuffling method. In BPA, we don't use time position and template information from masking value. Actually, we do experimental works of BPA attack to 128bit secret key of AES based on masking-shuffling method performed MSP430 Chip and we succeed in finding whole secret key. The results of this study will be utilized for next-generation ID cards to verify physical safety.

An Empirical Study on the Effect of CEO Technological Capability on Management Performances:Focusing on mediating effect technological capability in SMEs (CEO의 기술적 역량이 경영성과에 미치는 효과에 관한 실증연구: 기업의 기술적 역량 매개효과 중심으로)

  • Lee, In Ki;Yang, Dong Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.11 no.2
    • /
    • pp.167-182
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of CEO technological capability on management performance and mediating role of firm's technological capability. The empirical data for this study are taken not from subjective studies released by companies but from the Korea Technology Guarantee Fund's(KTGF) technology assessment data. The result are as follows. First, CEO technological capability has a very significant and important influence on firm's technological capabilities and on technological performance(intellectual property rights(-), technology spillover effect(+)) and on management performance. Second, mediating role of firm's technological capability is revealed negatively only between CEO technological capability and intellectual property rights. Because of CEO technological capability has a significant influence on firm's technological capability and management performance, start-up based on expertise show a higher probability of success than the founder.

  • PDF

Flood Alert and Warning Scheme Based on Intensity-Duration-Quantity (IDQ) Curve considering Antecedant Moisture Condition (선행함수지수를 고려한 강우강도-지속시간-홍수량(IDQ) 곡선기반의 홍수예경보기법)

  • Kim, Jin-Gyeom;Kang, Boosik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.35 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1269-1276
    • /
    • 2015
  • The methodology of utilizing Intensity-Duration-flood Quantity (IDQ) curve for flood alert and warning was introduced and its performance was evaluated. For this purpose the lumped parameter model was calibrated and validated for gauged basin data set and the index precipitation equivalent to alert and warning flood was estimated. The index precipitation and IDQ curves associated by three different Antecedant Moisture Conditions (AMCs) are made provision for various possible flood scenarios. The test basin is Wonju-cheon basin ($94.4km^2$) located in Gangwon province, Korea. The IDQ curves corresponding to alert (50% of design flood level) and warning (70% of design flood level) level was estimated using the Clark unit hydrograph based lumped parameter model. The performance evaluation showed 0.704 of POD (Probability of Detection), 0.136 of FAR (False Alarm Ratio), and 0.633 of CSI (Critical Success Index), which is improved from the result of IDQ with single fixed AMC.