• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stock Index

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Machine Learning Based Stock Price Fluctuation Prediction Models of KOSDAQ-listed Companies Using Online News, Macroeconomic Indicators, Financial Market Indicators, Technical Indicators, and Social Interest Indicators (온라인 뉴스와 거시경제 지표, 금융 지표, 기술적 지표, 관심도 지표를 이용한 코스닥 상장 기업의 기계학습 기반 주가 변동 예측)

  • Kim, Hwa Ryun;Hong, Seung Hye;Hong, Helen
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.448-459
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we propose a method of predicting the next-day stock price fluctuations of 10 KOSDAQ-listed companies in 5G, autonomous driving, and electricity sectors by training SVM, XGBoost, and LightGBM models from macroeconomic·financial market indicators, technical indicators, social interest indicators, and daily positive indices extracted from online news. In the three experiments to find out the usefulness of social interest indicators and daily positive indices, the average accuracy improved when each indicator and index was added to the models. In addition, when feature selection was performed to analyze the superiority of the extracted features, the average importance ranking of the social interest indicator and daily positive index was 5.45 and 1.08, respectively, it showed higher importance than the macroeconomic financial market indicators and technical indicators. With the results of these experiments, we confirmed the effectiveness of the social interest indicators as alternative data and the daily positive index for predicting stock price fluctuation.

Market Reaction for KRX SRI Index Revision (KRX SRI Index 구성종목 신규편입 시점의 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Seong-Jun;Kim, Dong-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2016
  • In today's fast-paced capitalistic society, a primary concern is whether to invest capital in any way to increase profits. In recent years, many companies have emphasized ethics and practiced corporate social responsibility activities. These activities are not only required to have at the end of the company. Bringing the ultimate goal of profit maximization is one way to contribute to the development of society and the economy. Investors are aware of corporate social responsibility activities and have begun to reflect this in their investments. We studied the behavior of a newly incorporated company's stock price on the KRX SRI Index using a scale that indicates the level of social responsibility for companies in the domestic stock market. Socially responsible investment involves an excellent company that looks out and looks for additional effects on the stock price of imports and improves the reliability of investors through an event study. The results show that the company we examined has a positive impact on the market. This study confirms the hypothesis that additional stock market reaction will occur when superior companies are newly incorporated in the KRX SRI Index and gain investors' trust. The results demonstrate that becoming a newly incorporated corporation in the KRX SRI Index is positive information to investors.

Quantitative Causal Reasoning in Stock Price Index Prediction Model

  • Kim, Myoung-Joon;Ingoo Han
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.228-231
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    • 1998
  • Artificial Intelligence literatures have recognized that stock market is a highly unstructured and complex domain so that it is difficult to find knowledge that belongs to that domain. This paper demonstrates that the proposed QCOM can derive global knowledge about stock market on the basis of a set of local knowledge and express it as a digraph representation. In addition, inference mechanism using quantitative causal reasoning can describe the qualitative and quantitative effects of exogenous variables on stock market.

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Empirical Analysis on Profit and Stability of Korean Reverse Convertible Funds

  • Shin, Yang-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.1073-1080
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    • 2008
  • Reverse convertible fund is a method of investment assuring both profit and stability in an unstable stock market, and shares characteristics of a hedge fund and derivative securities. This study analyzes empirically whether reverse convertible funds can indeed serve as a new method in variable stock market environment to provide high profit with low risks especially in the Korean stock market.

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Developing Pairs Trading Rules for Arbitrage Investment Strategy based on the Price Ratios of Stock Index Futures (주가지수 선물의 가격 비율에 기반한 차익거래 투자전략을 위한 페어트레이딩 규칙 개발)

  • Kim, Young-Min;Kim, Jungsu;Lee, Suk-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.202-211
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    • 2014
  • Pairs trading is a type of arbitrage investment strategy that buys an underpriced security and simultaneously sells an overpriced security. Since the 1980s, investors have recognized pairs trading as a promising arbitrage strategy that pursues absolute returns rather than relative profits. Thus, individual and institutional traders, as well as hedge fund traders in the financial markets, have an interest in developing a pairs trading strategy. This study proposes pairs trading rules (PTRs) created from a price ratio between securities (i.e., stock index futures) using rough set analysis. The price ratio involves calculating the closing price of one security and dividing it by the closing price of another security and generating Buy or Sell signals according to whether the ratio is increasing or decreasing. In this empirical study, we generate PTRs through rough set analysis applied to various technical indicators derived from the price ratio between KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 index futures. The proposed trading rules for pairs trading indicate high profits in the futures market.

The Accuracy of Various Value Drivers of Price Multiple Method in Determining Equity Price

  • YOOYANYONG, Pisal;SUWANRAGSA, Issara;TANGJITPROM, Nopphon
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2020
  • Stock price multiple is one of the most well-known equity valuation technique used to forecast equity price. It measures by multiplying "the ratio of stock price to a value driver" by a value driver. The value driver can be earning per share (EPS), sales or other financial measurements. The objective of price multiple technique is to evaluate the value of assets and compare how similar assets are priced in the market. Although stock price multiple technique is common in financial filed, studies on the application of the technique in Thailand is still limited. The present study is conducted to serve three major objectives. The first objective is to apply the technique to measure value of firms in banking sector in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The second objective is to develop composite price multiple index to forecast equity prices. The third objective is to compare valuation accuracy of different value drivers of price multiple (i.e. EPS, Earnings Growth, Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization, Sales, Book Value and Composite Index) in forecasting equity prices. Results indicated that EPS is the most accurate value drivers of price multiple used to forecast equity price of firms in baking sector.

Search-based Sentiment and Stock Market Reactions: An Empirical Evidence in Vietnam

  • Nguyen, Du D.;Pham, Minh C.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2018
  • The paper aims to examine relationships between search-based sentiment and stock market reactions in Vietnam. This study constructs an internet search-based measure of sentiment and examines its relationship with Vietnamese stock market returns. The sentiment index is derived from Google Trends' Search Volume Index of financial and economic terms that Vietnamese searched from January 2011 to June 2018. Consistent with prediction from sentiment theories, the study documents significant short-term reversals across three major stock indices. The difference from previous literature is that Vietnam stock market absorbs the contemporaneous decline slower while the subsequent rebound happens within a day. The results of the study suggest that the sentiment-induced effect is mainly driven by pessimism. On the other hand, optimistic investors seem to delay in taking their investment action until the market corrects. The study proposes a unified explanation for our findings based on the overreaction hypothesis of the bearish group and the strategic delay of the optimistic group. The findings of the study contribute to the behavioral finance strand that studies the role of sentiment in emerging financial markets, where noise traders and limits to arbitrage are more obvious. They also encourage the continuous application of search data to explore other investor behaviors in securities markets.

Linkage Between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices: Evidence from Vietnam

  • DANG, Van Cuong;LE, Thi Lanh;NGUYEN, Quang Khai;TRAN, Duc Quang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2020
  • The study investigates the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on stock prices in Vietnam. We use the nonlinear autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) analysis for monthly data from 2001:01 to 2018:05, based on VN-Index stock price collected from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE); the nominal exchange rate is separated into currency depreciation and appreciation through a partial sum decomposition process. Asymmetry is estimated both in the long-run relationship and the short-run error correction mechanism. The research results show that the effect of exchange rate changes on stock prices is asymmetrical, both in the short run and in long run. Accordingly, the stock prices react to different levels to depreciation and appreciation. However, the currency appreciation affects a stronger transmission of stock prices when compared to the long-run currency depreciation. In the absence of asymmetry, the exchange rate only has a short-run impact on stock prices. This implies a symmetrical assumption that underestimates the impact of exchange rate changes on stock prices in Vietnam. This study points to an important implication for regulators in Vietnam. They should consider the relationship between exchange rate changes and stock prices in both the long run and the short run to manage the stock and foreign exchange market.