• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stochastic Characteristics

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Characteristics of Measurement Errors due to Reflective Sheet Targets - Surveying for Sejong VLBI IVP Estimation (반사 타겟의 관측 오차 특성 분석 - 세종 VLBI IVP 결합 측량)

  • Hong, Chang-Ki;Bae, Tae-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.325-332
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    • 2022
  • Determination of VLBI IVP (Very Long Baseline Interferometry Invariant Point) position with high accuracy is required to compute local tie vectors between the space geodetic techniques. In general, reflective targets are attached on VLBI antenna and slant distances, horizontal and vertical angles are measured from the pillars. Then, adjustment computation is performed by using the mathematical model which connects measurements and unknown parameters. This indicates that the accuracy of the estimated solutions is affected by the accuracy of the measurements. One of issues in local tie surveying, however, is that the reflective targets are not in favorable condition, that is, the reflective sheet target cannot be perfectly aligned to the instrument perpendicularly. Deviation from the line of sight of an instrument may cause different type of measurement errors. This inherent limitation may lead to incorrect stochastic modeling for the measurements in adjustment computation procedures. In this study, error characteristics by measurement types and pillars are analyzed, respectively. The analysis on the studentized residuals is performed after adjustment computation. The normality of the residuals is tested and then equal variance test between the measurement types are performed. The results show that there are differences in variance according to the measurement types. Differences in variance between distances and angle measurements are observed when F-test is performed for the measurements from each pillar. Therefore, more detailed stochastic modeling is required for optimal solutions, especially in local tie survey.

Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number

  • Lim, Jun-Sik;Cho, Sung-il;Ryu, Sukhyun;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.405-408
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    • 2020
  • In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R0 was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R0 has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R0 and the effective reproduction number (Rt). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R0 should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for Rt due to the incubation period of the disease.

Review of seismic studies of liquid storage tanks

  • Zhao, Ming;Zhou, Junwen
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.65 no.5
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    • pp.557-572
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    • 2018
  • The academic research works about liquid storage tanks are reviewed for the purpose of providing valuable reference to the engineering practice on their aseismic design. A summary of the performance of tanks during past earthquakes is described in this paper. Next, the seismic response of tanks under unidirectional earthquake is reported, supplemented with the dynamic response under multidirectional motions. Then, researches on the influence of soil-structure interaction are brought out to help modify the seismic design approach of tanks in different areas with variable properties of soils. Afterwards, base isolation systems are reported to demonstrate their effectiveness for the earthquake-resistant design of liquid storage tanks. Further, researches about the liquid-structure interaction are reviewed with description of simplified models and numerical analytical methods, some of which consider the elastic effect of tank walls. Moreover, the liquid sloshing phenomenon on the hydrodynamic behaviors of tanks is presented by various algorithms including grid-based and meshfree method. And then the impact of baffles in changing the dynamic characteristics of the liquid-structure system is raised, which shows the energy dissipation by the vortex motion of liquid. In addition, uplifting effect is given to enhance the understanding on the capacity of unanchored tanks and some assessment of their development. At last, the concluding remarks and the aspects of extended research in the field of liquid storage tanks under seismic loads are provided, emphasizing the thermal stress analysis, the replaceable system for base isolation, the liquid-solid interaction and dynamic responses with stochastic excitations.

On the Estimation Techniques of Hurst exponent (허스트 지수 산정 방법에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Hung-Soo;Seoh, Byung-Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.37 no.12
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    • pp.993-1007
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    • 2004
  • There are many different techniques for the estimation of the Hurst exponent. However, the techniques can produce different characteristics for the persistence of a time series each other. This study uses several techniques such as adjusted range, resealed range(RR) analysis, modified restated range(MRR) analysis, 1/f power spectral density analysis, Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE), detrended fluctuations analysis(DFA), and aggregated variance time(AVT)method for the Hurst exponent estimation. The generated time series from chaos and stochastic systems are analyzed for the comparative study of the techniques. Then this study discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the techniques and also the limitations of them.

On-line Measurement and Characterization of Nano-web Qualities Using a Stochastic Sensor Fusion System Design and Implementation of NAFIS(NAno-Fiber Information System)

  • Kim, Joovong;Lim, Dae-Young;Byun, Sung-Weon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Fiber Society Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.45-46
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    • 2003
  • A process control system has been developed for measurement and characterization of the nanofiber web qualities. The nano-fiber information system (NAFIS) developed consists of a measurement device and an analysis algorithm, which are a microscope-laser sensor fusion system and a process information system, respectively. It has been found that NAFIS is so successful in detecting irregularities of pore and diameter that the resulting product has been quitely under control even at the high production rate. Pore distribution, fiber diameter and mass uniformity have been readily measured and analyzed by integrating the non-contact measurement technology and the random function-based time domain signal/image processing algorithm. Qualifies of the nano-fiber webs have been revealed in a way that the statistical parameters for the characteristics above are calculated and stored in a certain interval along with the time-specific information. Quality matrix, scale of homogeneity is easily obtained through the easy-to-use GUI information. Finally, ANFIS has been evaluated both for the real-time measurement and analysis, and for the process monitoring.

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Evaluation of characteristics of the domestic drought using EOF analysis and stochastic model (EOF 해석과 추계학적 모형을 이용한 국내 가뭄특성의 평가)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Dae-Ha;Kim, Sang-Dan;Kim, Kyung-Jun;Kim, Byung-Su;Park, Chang-Yeol
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1135-1139
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    • 2006
  • 가뭄은 홍수와 함께 인류역사상 가장 큰 재해로 인식되어 있다. 미해양대기청의 발표에 따르면 20세기 최대 자연재해의 상위 5위 안에 4개의 가뭄이 포함되어 있다. 이러한 기록은 가뭄이 동서고금을 막론하고 국가의 흥망성쇠를 좌우할 만큼 막대한 피해를 입혀왔음을 의미한다. 그러나 가뭄의 해석은 가뭄의 정의 자체가 확실하지 않고 서서히 찾아오는 자연재해이기 때문에 그 시작과 끝을 인식하기 어렵다. 아울러 그 진행속도도 굉장히 느리며 또한 장기간에 걸쳐 지속되는 특성을 가지고 있고 시공간적으로 전파된다. 따라서 가뭄의 해석은 굉장히 까다로운 것이라 할 수 있으며 그 해석방법 또한 다양할 수 밖에 없다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 전역 59개 지점의 표준강수지수(Standard Precipitation Index) 시계열 자료에 대한 공간적 패턴분석과 시간적인 자료확장을 시도하였다. 경험적 직교함수(Emperical Orthogonal function) 해석을 이용하여 자료의 공간적인 패턴을 확인하였고 EOF 해석에서 나타난 EOF Coefficient Time Series를 추계학적 모형에 적용하여 시간적인 자료 확장을 수행하였다. 이렇게 확장된 긴 기간의 자료를 이용하면 재현기간에 대한 평균적인 가뭄심도를 추출할 수 있으며 실제 나타난 사상의 재현기간이 어느 정도인지 평가할 수 있다. 또한 이렇게 나타난 가뭄심도를 강수부족량으로 환산하여 우리나라 대권역별 물부족량을 평가하였다.

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Human Reliability Analysis Using Reliability Physics Models (신뢰도 물리모델을 이용한 인간신뢰도분석 연구)

  • Moo-sung Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a new dynamic human reliability analysis method and its application for quantifying the human error probabilities in implementing accident management actions. The action associated with implementation of the cavity flooding during a station blackout sequence is considered for its application. This method is based on the concept of the quantified correlation between the performance requirement and performance achievement. For comparisons of current HRA methods with the new method, the characteristics of THERP, HCR, and SLIM-MAUD, which m most frequency used method in PSAs, are discussed. The MAAP code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the performance achievement parameter. Meanwhile, the value of the performance requirement parameter is obtained from interviews. Based on these stochastic obtained, human error probabilities are calculated with respect to the various means and variances of the things. It is shown that this method is very flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of the operator actions, including the actions associated with the implementation of accident management strategies.

Dynamic Island Partition for Distribution System with Renewable Energy to Decrease Customer Interruption Cost

  • Zhu, Junpeng;Gu, Wei;Jiang, Ping;Song, Shan;Liu, Haitao;Liang, Huishi;Wu, Ming
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.2146-2156
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    • 2017
  • When a failure occurs in active distribution system, it will be isolated through the action of circuit breakers and sectionalizing switches. As a result, the network might be divided into several connected components, in which distributed generations could supply power for customers. Aimed at decreasing customer interruption cost, this paper proposes a theoretically optimal island partition model for such connected components, and a simplified but more practical model is also derived. The model aims to calculate a dynamic island partition schedule during the failure recovery time period, instead of a static islanding status. Fluctuation and stochastic characteristics of the renewable distributed generations and loads are considered, and the interruption cost functions of the loads are fitted. To solve the optimization model, a heuristic search algorithm based on the hill climbing method is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm is evaluated by comparing with an existing static island partitioning model and intelligent algorithms, respectively.

Probabilistic Evaluation of Voltage Quality on Distribution System Containing Distributed Generation and Electric Vehicle Charging Load

  • CHEN, Wei;YAN, Hongqiang;PEI, Xiping
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.1743-1753
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    • 2017
  • Since there are multiple random variables in the probabilistic load flow (PLF) calculation of distribution system containing distributed generation (DG) and electric vehicle charging load (EVCL), a Monte Carlo method based on composite sampling method is put forward according to the existing simple random sampling Monte Carlo simulation method (SRS-MCSM) to perform probabilistic assessment analysis of voltage quality of distribution system containing DG and EVCL. This method considers not only the randomness of wind speed and light intensity as well as the uncertainty of basic load and EVCL, but also other stochastic disturbances, such as the failure rate of the transmission line. According to the different characteristics of random factors, different sampling methods are applied. Simulation results on IEEE9 bus system and IEEE34 bus system demonstrates the validity, accuracy, rapidity and practicability of the proposed method. In contrast to the SRS-MCSM, the proposed method is of higher computational efficiency and better simulation accuracy. The variation of nodal voltages for distribution system before and after connecting DG and EVCL is compared and analyzed, especially the voltage fluctuation of the grid-connected point of DG and EVCL.

Modal identification of Canton Tower under uncertain environmental conditions

  • Ye, Xijun;Yan, Quansheng;Wang, Weifeng;Yu, Xiaolin
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.10 no.4_5
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    • pp.353-373
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    • 2012
  • The instrumented Canton Tower is a 610 m high-rise structure, which has been considered as a benchmark problem for structural health monitoring (SHM) research. In this paper, an improved automatic modal identification method is presented based on a natural excitation technique in conjunction with the eigensystem realization algorithm (NExT/ERA). In the proposed modal identification method, damping ratio, consistent mode indicator from observability matrices (CMI_O) and modal amplitude coherence (MAC) are used as criteria to distinguish the physically true modes from spurious modes. Enhanced frequency domain decomposition (EFDD), the data-driven stochastic subspace identification method (SSI-DATA) and the proposed method are respectively applied to extract the modal parameters of the Canton Tower under different environmental conditions. Results of modal parameter identification based on output-only measurements are presented and discussed. User-selected parameters used in those methods are suggested and discussed. Furthermore, the effect of environmental conditions on the dynamic characteristics of Canton tower is investigated.