• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical decision

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A Strategy Evaluation Procedure using VDMP (VDMP를 이용한 전략대안 분석 및 평가절차)

  • 조용욱;박명규
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2001
  • This article deals with the multiple alternative proposal of Strategy. when Decision makers meet a very complex and important problems to take a good choice. It might not be easy that we make a decision and accept the decision as an exact result of analysis at a complication and uncertain situation. Although the decision under unpredictable state is many existence and each field is classified to support it. he can not provide exact estimations and be able to specify a result and forecasting. This is the reason why the original research use Statistical Survey method and Visual Decision Making Process(VDMP) to improve decision analysis method. Therefore, Our research suggests that the VDMP utilized in the strategic decision making situation as a group decision adding tool, can be applied in the development of a process vision and implementation plan. as a result, researcher describe step by step the process of VDMP.

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A study on the behavior of cosmetic customers (화장품구매 자료를 통한 고객 구매행태 분석)

  • Cho, Dae-Hyeon;Kim, Byung-Soo;Seok, Kyung-Ha;Lee, Jong-Un;Kim, Jong-Sung;Kim, Sun-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.615-627
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    • 2009
  • In micro marketing promotion, it is important to know the behavior of customers. In this study we are interested in the forecasting of repurchase of customers from customers' behavior. By analyzing the cosmetic transaction data we derive some variables which play an important role in the knowledge of the customers' behavior and in the modeling of repurchase. As modeling tools we use the decision tree, logistic regression and neural network model. Finally we decide to use the decision tree as a final model since it yields the smallest RASE (root average squared error) and the greatest correct classification rate.

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A Statistical Analysis of Professional Baseball Team Data: The Case of the Lotte Giants

  • Cho, Young-Seuk;Han, Jun-Tae;Park, Chan-Keun;Heo, Tae-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1191-1199
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    • 2010
  • Knowing what factors into a player's ability to affect the outcome of a sports game is crucial. This knowledge helps determine the relative degree of contribution by each team member as well as sets appropriate annual salaries. This study uses statistical analysis to investigate how much the outcome of a professional baseball game is influenced by the records of individual players. We used the Lotte Giants' data on 252 games played between 2007 and 2008 that included environmental data(home or away games and opponents) as well as pitchers' and batters' data. Using a SAS Enterprise Miner, we performed a logistic regression analysis and decision tree analysis on the data. The results obtained through the two analytic methods are compared and discussed.

Efficient Supplier Selection with Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo DEA (몬테카를로 DEA를 이용한 불확실성을 고려한 효율적 공급자 선정)

  • Ha, Chunghun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2015
  • Selection of efficient supplier is a very important process as risk or uncertainty of a supply chain and its environment are increasing. Previous deterministic DEA and probabilistic DEAs are very limited to handle various types of risk and uncertainty. In this paper, I propose an improved probabilistic DEA which consists of two steps; Monte Carlo simulation and statistical decision making. The simulation results show that the proposed method is proper to distinguish supplier's performance and provide statistical decision background.

STATISTICAL MODELLING USING DATA MINING TOOLS IN MERGERS AND ACQUISITION WITH REGARDS TO MANUFACTURE & SERVICE SECTOR

  • KALAIVANI, S.;SIVAKUMAR, K.;VIJAYARANGAM, J.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.40 no.3_4
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    • pp.563-575
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    • 2022
  • Many organizations seek statistical modelling facilitated by data analytics technologies for determining the prediction models associated with M&A (Merger and Acquisition). By combining these data analytics tool alongside with data collection approaches aids organizations towards M&A decision making, followed by achieving profitable insights as well. It promotes for better visibility, overall improvements and effective negotiation strategies for post-M&A integration. This paper explores on the impact of pre and post integration of M&A in a standard organizational setting via devising a suitable statistical model via employing techniques such as Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbour (KNN), and Decision Tree & Support Vector Machine (SVM).

A Schema Approach to Cognitive Resonance and Its Decision-making Performance

  • Lee Kun Chang;Chung Namho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.931-939
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    • 2003
  • This paper is aimed at proposing a new framework to predict decision performance, by Investigating decision maker's cognitive resonance. We assume that every decision maker has two kinds of schema­emotional schema and rational schema. Cognitive resonance is believed to have a close relationship with the two schemata and decision performance. In literature on decision performance there is no study' seeking relationship among the two schemata ana cognitive resonance. Therefore, our research purposes are twofold: (1) to provide a theoretical basis for the proposed framework describing the causal relationships among two schemata, cognitive resonance, and decision Performance, and (2) to empirically prove its validity applying to. Internet shopping Situation. Based on the questionnaires from 13S- respondents, we used a second order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to extract valid constructs, and structural equation model (SEM) to calculate path coefficients and prove the statistical validity of our proposed research model. Experimental results supported our research model with some further research issues.

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Antecedents of consumers' decision postponement on purchasing fast fashion brands (패스트 패션 브랜드에 대한 소비자 의사결정 연기의 선행변수)

  • Park, Hye-Jung
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.743-759
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the antecedents of consumers' decision postponement on purchasing fast fashion brands. Ongoing search behavior, overchoice confusion, and similarity confusion were considered as antecedents. It was hypothesized that ongoing search behavior influences decision postponement both directly and indirectly through overchoice confusion and similarity confusion. Data were gathered by surveying university students in Seoul, using convenience sampling. Three hundred five questionnaires were used in the statistical analysis, which were exploratory factor analysis using SPSS and confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis using AMOS. Factor analysis proved that ongoing search behavior, overchoice confusion, similarity confusion, and decision postponement were uni-dimensions. Tests of the hypothesized path proved that ongoing search behavior influences decision postponement indirectly through overchoice confusion. In addition, similarity confusion influences decision postponement. The results suggest some confusion reduction strategies for marketers of fast fashion brands. Suggestions for future study are also discussed.

A Policy Build up & Evaluation Procedure for IT-Venture Business using VDMP (VDMP를 이용한 IT-벤처 사업 정책대안 도출 방법 및 평가절차)

  • 이경록;서장훈;박명규
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2002
  • This article deals with the multiple alternative proposal of Venture Business policy. when Decision makers meet a very complex and important business to take a good choice. It might not be easy that we make a decision and accept the decision as an exact result of analysis at a complication and uncertain situation. This is the reason why the original research use Statistical Survey method and Visual Decision Making Process(VDMP) to improve decision analysis method. Therefore, Our research suggests that the VDMP utilized in the strategic decision making situation as a group decision adding tool, can be applied in the development of a process vision and implementation plan. as a result, researcher describe step by step the process of VDMP

Empirical Bayes Problem With Random Sample Size Components

  • Jung, Inha
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 1991
  • The empirical Bayes version involves ″independent″ repetitions(a sequence) of the component decision problem. With the varying sample size possible, these are not identical components. However, we impose the usual assumption that the parameters sequence $\theta$=($\theta$$_1$, $\theta$$_2$, …) consists of independent G-distributed parameters where G is unknown. We assume that G $\in$ g, a known family of distributions. The sample size $N_i$ and the decisin rule $d_i$ for component i of the sequence are determined in an evolutionary way. The sample size $N_1$ and the decision rule $d_1$$\in$ $D_{N1}$ used in the first component are fixed and chosen in advance. The sample size $N_2$and the decision rule $d_2$ are functions of *see full text($\underline{X}^1$equation omitted), the observations in the first component. In general, $N_i$ is an integer-valued function of *see full text(equation omitted) and, given $N_i$, $d_i$ is a $D_{Ni}$/-valued function of *see full text(equation omitted). The action chosen in the i-th component is *(equation omitted) which hides the display of dependence on *(equation omitted). We construct an empirical Bayes decision rule for estimating normal mean and show that it is asymptotically optimal.

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Highly Reliable Watermark Detection Algorithm using Statistical Decision Method in Wavelet Domain (웨이블릿 영역에서 통계적 판정법을 이용한 고신뢰 워터마크 검출 알고리즘)

  • 권성근;김병주;이석환;권기구;김영춘;권기룡;이건일
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2003
  • Watermark detection has a crucial role in copyright protection and authentication for multimedia Because be the correlation -based algorithm which has widely been used in the watermark detection doesn't utilize the distributional characteristics of cover image to be marked, its performance is not optimum. So a new detection algorithm is proposed which is optimum for multiplicative watermark embedding. By relying on statistical decision method, the proposed method is derived according to the Bayes decision theory. Neyman Pearson criterion, and distribution of wavelet coefficients, thus Permitting to minimize the missed detection probability subject to a given false detection probability The superiority of the proposed method has been tested from a robustness perspective. The results confirm the superiority of the proposed technique over classical correlation -based method.

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