• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical Modelling

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Stock Forecasting Using Prophet vs. LSTM Model Applying Time-Series Prediction

  • Alshara, Mohammed Ali
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 2022
  • Forecasting and time series modelling plays a vital role in the data analysis process. Time Series is widely used in analytics & data science. Forecasting stock prices is a popular and important topic in financial and academic studies. A stock market is an unregulated place for forecasting due to the absence of essential rules for estimating or predicting a stock price in the stock market. Therefore, predicting stock prices is a time-series problem and challenging. Machine learning has many methods and applications instrumental in implementing stock price forecasting, such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis, statistical analysis. This paper will discuss implementing the stock price, forecasting, and research using prophet and LSTM models. This process and task are very complex and involve uncertainty. Although the stock price never is predicted due to its ambiguous field, this paper aims to apply the concept of forecasting and data analysis to predict stocks.

Predicting the Saudi Student Perception of Benefits of Online Classes during the Covid-19 Pandemic using Artificial Neural Network Modelling

  • Beyari, Hasan
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2022
  • One of the impacts of Covid-19 on education systems has been the shift to online education. This shift has changed the way education is consumed and perceived by students. However, the exact nature of student perception about online education is not known. The aim of this study was to understand the perceptions of Saudi higher education students (e.g., post-school students) about online education during the Covid-19 pandemic. Various aspects of online education including benefits, features and cybersecurity were explored. The data collected were analysed using statistical techniques, especially artificial neural networks, to address the research aims. The key findings were that benefits of online education was perceived by students with positive experience or when ensured of safe use of online platforms without the fear cyber security breaches for which recruitment of a cyber security officer was an important predictor. The issue of whether perception of online education as a necessity only for Covid situation or a lasting option beyond the pandemic is a topic for future research.

Statistical Model for Analysing Variations in Inpatient Procedure and Operation Costs of Some Selected K-DRGs by Type of Hospitals (일부 K-DRG 환례의 의료기관 유형별 수술 및 처치 진료비의 변이 분석 모형)

  • Lee, Young-Jo;Noh, Maeng-Seok;Kim, Yoon;Lee, Moo-Sang;Lee, Sang-Il
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 1998
  • Analysis of practice variations has been one of important issues in trying to contain costs as well as to manage quality in health care. This study was conducted to provide statistical model for analysing variations in inpatient costs by type of hospitals. Four K-DRGs including Cesarean section, appendectomy, cataract extraction, and pediatric pneumonia with CC class 0 were selected, and means and dispersions of inpatient procedure and operation costs were simultaneously compared between type of hospitals. The results indicated that joint modelling of means and dispersions by gamma distribution was a very useful analytic tool for identifying factors which might have relationship with variations in inpatient costs. This model can be expanded to test the significance of several independent variables in analysing cost variations. In surgical conditions, means and unit variations of procedure and operation costs showed consistent pattern which was tertiarty hospital, general hospital, and hospital in descending order. Different findings were identified in pediatric pneumonia, from which mean and unit variation of procedure and operation cost was the highest in general hospital. The practical implication of this difference could not be drawn from this study. It will be done by further sophisticated researches. In order to develop health policy for cost containment and quality management in Korea, it is essential to find out manageable factors affecting variations in practice patterns which include characteristics of population, providers, regions, and so on. The statistical model presented in this study will give health services researchers useful insights for future investigations in analysing cost variations.

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Machine Learning vs. Statistical Model for Prediction Modelling: Application in Medical Imaging Research (예측모형의 머신러닝 방법론과 통계학적 방법론의 비교: 영상의학 연구에서의 적용)

  • Leeha Ryu;Kyunghwa Han
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.83 no.6
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    • pp.1219-1228
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    • 2022
  • Clinical prediction models has been increasingly published in radiology research. In particular, as a radiomics research is being actively conducted, the prediction model is developed based on the traditional statistical model, as well as machine learning, to account for the high-dimensional data. In this review, we investigated the statistical and machine learning methods used in clinical prediction model research, and briefly summarized each analytical method for statistical model, machine learning, and statistical learning. Finally, we discussed several considerations for choosing the prediction modeling method.

An effective stiffness model for RC flexural members

  • Balevicius, Robertas
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.601-620
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    • 2006
  • The paper presents an effective stiffness model for deformational analysis of reinforced concrete cracked members in bending throughout the short-term loading up to the near failure. The method generally involves the analytical derivation of an effective moment of inertia based on the smeared crack technique. The method, in a simplified way, enables us to take into account the non linear properties of concrete, the effects of cracking and tension stiffening. A statistical analysis has shown that proposed technique is of adequate accuracy of calculated and experimental deflections data provided for beams with small, average and normal reinforcement ratios.

Random Effects Models for Multivariate Survival Data: Hierarchical-Likelihood Approach

  • Ha Il Do;Lee Youngjo;Song Jae-Kee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2000
  • Modelling the dependence via random effects in censored multivariate survival data has recently received considerable attention in the biomedical literature. The random effects models model not only the conditional survival times but also the conditional hazard rate. Systematic likelihood inference for the models with random effects is possible using Lee and Nelder's (1996) hierarchical-likelihood (h-likelihood). The purpose of this presentation is to introduce Ha et al.'s (2000a,b) inferential methods for the random effects models via the h-likelihood, which provide a conceptually simple, numerically efficient and reliable inferential procedures.

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Term Structure Estimation Using Official Rate

  • Rhee, Joon Hee;Kim, Yoon Tae
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.655-663
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    • 2003
  • The fundamental tenn structure model is based on the modelling of the short rate. It is well-known that the short rate depends on the interest rate policy of monetary authorities, especially on the official rate. Babbs and Webber(1994) modelled the tenn structure of interest rates using the official rate. They assume that the official rate follows a jump process. This reflects that the official rate infrequently changes. In this paper, we test this official tenn structure model and compare the jump-diffusion model with the pure diffusion model.

The uncertainty problem analysis of the engineering solution for prediction and estimation of the operating regime to design of gas- hydro-dynamic systems

  • Kartovitskiy, Lev;Tsipenko, Anton;Lee, Ji-Hyung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.459-468
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    • 2009
  • Analysis of the uncertainty to have engineering solution of gas-dynamic and hydrodynamic problems is based on the comparison the prospective engineering solution with experimental result. In this paper, the mathematical model to estimate heat flux along gas-dynamic channel wall and the solution sequence are shown. Statistical information and generalizing experimental characteristics about gas- and hydro-dynamic channels were applied to the mathematical model. As the results, it is possible to draw a conclusion that models of the integrated approach, using the averaged statistical data of generalizing characteristics for a turbulent flow, without consideration of the turbulent mechanism (characteristic pulsations), can predict a nominal operating regime for gas-dynamic and hydrodynamic systems. The probable deviation of operating regime for newly designed the gas-dynamic channel can achieve 20% from a regime predicted on a basis 1-D or 3-D modelling irrespective of a kind of used models.

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Use of Factor Analyzer Normal Mixture Model with Mean Pattern Modeling on Clustering Genes

  • Kim Seung-Gu
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2006
  • Normal mixture model(NMM) frequently used to cluster genes on microarray gene expression data. In this paper some of component means of NMM are modelled by a linear regression model so that its design matrix presents the pattern between sample classes in microarray matrix. This modelling for the component means by given design matrices certainly has an advantage that we can lead the clusters that are previously designed. However, it suffers from 'overfitting' problem because in practice genes often are highly dimensional. This problem also arises when the NMM restricted by the linear model for component-means is fitted. To cope with this problem, in this paper, the use of the factor analyzer NMM restricted by linear model is proposed to cluster genes. Also several design matrices which are useful for clustering genes are provided.