• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical Forecasting

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Recommended Practice for the Assessment of Transformer Capacity by the Forecasting of Peak Power in Office Building Customers (사무소용빌딩의 최대전력 예측에 의한 변압기용량 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Se-Dong;Yoo, Sang-Bong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.293-296
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    • 2008
  • Contract power conversion factor which is applied to estimate contract power of general customers IS an important standard to caculate transformer capacity. This paper shows a reasonable contract power conversion factor, that was made by the systematic and statistical way considering actual conditions, such as investigated contract power and peak power for the last 5 years of each customer for 132 office building customers as to AMR system. In this dissertation, it is necessary to analyze the key features and general trend from the investigated data. It made an analysis of the feature parameters, such as average, standard deviation, median, maximum, minimun and thus it was carried the linear and nonlinear regression analysis. Therefore, this paper compared characteristics for a contract power conversion factor which is applied to calculate contract power with characteristics for a regression model for customers which maximum utilization factor of transformer is more than 60%.

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On the origin of exponential growth in induced earthquakes in Groningen

  • van Putten, Maurice H.P.M.;van Putten, Anton F.P.;van Putten, Michael J.A.M.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.861-871
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    • 2016
  • The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event < M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions.

Analysis on the Economic Effects of Calibration for Measurement Instrument in Korean Industry (우리나라 산업(産業)의 측정기기에 대한 교정검사실시효과분석(較正檢査實施效果分析))

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Choe, Jong-Hu;An, Ung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 1991
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic efficiency of the investment for calibrating measurement instruments in manufacturing industries, and to propose the administration scheme of measurement instruments. To investigate the efficieny of calibration, we estimate a multiple regression model composed of variables - product inferiority-rate, calibration rate, etc-, and verify fitness of the model. According to the statistical analysis by LOGIT method, a forecasting model of product inferiority-rate with calibration-related variables is proposed, and its validity is investigated.

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Internet Traffic Forecasting Using Power Transformation Heteroscadastic Time Series Models (멱변환 이분산성 시계열 모형을 이용한 인터넷 트래픽 예측 기법 연구)

  • Ha, M.H.;Kim, S.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.1037-1044
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we show the performance of the power transformation GARCH(PGARCH) model to analyze the internet traffic data. The long memory property which is the typical characteristic of internet traffic data can be explained by the PGARCH model rather than the linear GARCH model. Small simulation and the analysis of the real internet traffic show the out-performance of the PARCH MODEL over the linear GARCH one.

A study on solar irradiance forecasting with weather variables (기상변수를 활용한 일사량 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.1005-1013
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we investigate the performances of time series models to forecast irradiance that consider weather variables such as temperature, humidity, cloud cover and Global Horizontal Irradiance. We first introduce the time series models and show that regression ARIMAX has the best performance with other models such as ARIMA and multiple regression models.

Development of an Automatic Program to Analyze Sunspot Groups on SOHO/MDI Continuum Images using OpenCV

  • Park, Jong-Yeob;Moon, Yong-Jae;Choi, Seong-Hwan
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.102.2-102.2
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    • 2011
  • Sunspots usually appear in a group which can be classified by certain morphological criteria. In this study we examine the moments which are statistical parameters computed by summing over every pixels of contours, in order to quantify the morphological characteristics of a sunspot group. The moments can be additional characteristics to the sunspot group classification such as McIntosh classification. We are developing a program for image processing, detection of contours and computation of the moments using continuum images from SOHO/MDI. We apply the program to count the sunspot numbers from 303 continuum images in 2003. The sunspot numbers obtained by the program are compared with those by SIDC. The comparison shows that they have a good correlation (r=89%). We are extending this application to automatic sunspot classification (e.g., McIntosh classification) and flare forecasting.

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Statistical Study on solar energetic particle acceleration using multi-channel observations

  • Kim, Rok-Soon;Cho, Kyung-Suk;Park, Young-Deuk
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.70.1-70.1
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    • 2014
  • We study the origin and acceleration mechanism of solar energetic particles (SEPs), which are one of the major causes of hazardous impacts in the space weather. By adopting the velocity dispersion to the multi-channel energy band observations from SOHO/ERNE and Wind/3DP, we estimate the onset time for each energy band and investigate coronal structure and CME's dynamics associated with the SEPs. Through this study we will find clues to answer the questions about the origin and acceleration of SEPs as well as their associated with flare and/or CMEs. We will apply our findings to improve the forecasting system of the solar radiation storms.

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An Efficiency Analysis for Total Work Scheduling (총합적 작업일정계획의 합리화 및 효율분석)

  • 신현표
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.10 no.16
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 1987
  • Since many small and medium sized enterprises have lack of funds to install the full scale Computer Aided Process Planning this study has been attempted to develop a part of computer generated production information system for a start. The system is programmed by DBASE III and BASIC languages for the IBM-PC competables for the sake of user's convenience. The system consisted of four major parts. The first part is a computerized work measurement system for applying WF predetermined time standards. The second part is a computerized forecasting and loading system for applying various statistical techniques. The third part is a GT scheduling system programmed by BASIC for applying heuristic scheduling method. Finally, the last part is a simulation system for GT scheduling efficiency test which is programmed by SIMAN simulation language.

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A Strategy Evaluation Procedure using VDMP (VDMP를 이용한 전략대안 분석 및 평가절차)

  • 조용욱;박명규
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2001
  • This article deals with the multiple alternative proposal of Strategy. when Decision makers meet a very complex and important problems to take a good choice. It might not be easy that we make a decision and accept the decision as an exact result of analysis at a complication and uncertain situation. Although the decision under unpredictable state is many existence and each field is classified to support it. he can not provide exact estimations and be able to specify a result and forecasting. This is the reason why the original research use Statistical Survey method and Visual Decision Making Process(VDMP) to improve decision analysis method. Therefore, Our research suggests that the VDMP utilized in the strategic decision making situation as a group decision adding tool, can be applied in the development of a process vision and implementation plan. as a result, researcher describe step by step the process of VDMP.

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A Strategy of Adjusted Internet Traffic Modeling using Heavy-Tailed Distributions (두꺼운 꼬리 분포를 이용한 수정된 인터넷 트래픽 모델)

  • Ji, Seon-Su
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2007
  • According to the recent growth of the internet commercialization and differentiated QoS(quality of service), statistical traffic modeling is necessary for forecasting and controlling future network capacity. This paper reviews tile essential components in web workloads. And I propose adjusted internet traffic modeling using heavy-tailed distributions and intervention techniques.

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