• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical Decision Making

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Decision Making through the Game of Scissors-Paper-Stone and Simulation (가위바위보를 이용한 승부결정과 모의실험)

  • Cho, Dae-Hyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1217-1224
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    • 2010
  • In many sports games, we would use a coin or the game of scissors-paper-stone to decide which side will begin first. We consider the game of scissors-paper-stone when two teams are composed of N respectively. We continue the game of scissors-paper-stone until the winner of the two team is decided. Using sample spaces and enumerating the elements we calculated the mean number of the game when N = 1, N = 2 and N = 3. In case of N = 1 and N = 2, we simulate the game and find the mean and variance when the repetition number n = 20; 30; 50; 100; 150; 200.

Policies for Improving the Survey of Research and Development in Science and Technology: The Case of Industrial Sector (과학기술연구개발활동조사의 개선방안 -기업부문을 중심으로-)

  • 유승훈;문혜선
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.228-244
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    • 2002
  • The survey of research and development (R&D) in science and technology (S&T) covers the current status of R&D activities in S&T in Korea, and provides a basis for decision making regarding S&T policy. Continuous improvement of the survey is widely needed to present reliable national basic statistics. Therefore, the purpose of the study is two-fold: to introduce sampling survey method in industrial sector and to make statistical technique to deal with non-response data from industrial sector. To these ends, first, case studies of the United States and Japan are illustrated. A new sampling design for the R&D survey is proposed and implementing stratified random sampling scheme is suggested. Moreover, statistical analysis of the non-response data is dealt with. Based on several screening criteria, we develop a new imputation method suitable for the R&D survey and also provide more detailed implementation plan. Various solutions to a problem arising from non-response item are also presented. Finally, some implications of the results are discussed.

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A Study for Obtaining Weights in Pairwise Comparison Matrix in AHP

  • Jeong, Hyeong-Chul;Lee, Jong-Chan;Jhun, Myoung-Shic
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.531-541
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we consider various methods to estimate the weights of a pairwise comparison matrix in the Analytic Hierarchy Process widely applied in various decision-making fields. This paper uses a data dependent simulation to evaluate the statistical accuracy, minimum violation and minimum norm of the obtaining weight methods from a reciprocal symmetric matrix. No method dominates others in all criteria. Least squares methods perform best in point of mean squared errors; however, the eigenvectors method has an advantage in the minimum norm.

A Study on the Diagnosis of Cutting Tool States Using Cutting Conditions and Cutting Force Parameters(II) -Decision Making- (절삭조건과 절삭력 파라메타를 이용한 공구상태 진단에 관한 연구(II) -의사결정 -)

  • 정진용;서남섭
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 1998
  • In this study, statistical and neural network methods were used to recognize the cutting tool states. This system employed the tool dynamometer and cutting force signals which are processed from the tool dynamometer sensor using linear discriminent function. To learn the necessary input/output mapping for turning operation diagnosis, the weights and thresholds of the neural network were adjusted according to the error back propagation method during off-line training. The cutting conditions, cutting force ratios and statistical values(standard deviation, coefficient of variation) attained from the cutting force signals were used as the inputs to the neural network. Through the suggested neural network a cutting tool states may be successfully diagnosed.

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Development of Scoring Model on Customer Attrition Probability by Using Data Mining Techniques

  • Han, Sang-Tae;Lee, Seong-Keon;Kang, Hyun-Cheol;Ryu, Dong-Kyun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2002
  • Recently, many companies have applied data mining techniques to promote competitive power in the field of their business market. In this study, we address how data mining, that is a technique to enable to discover knowledge from a deluge of data, Is used in an executed project in order to support decision making of an enterprise. Also, we develope scoring model on customer attrition probability for automobile-insurance company using data mining techniques. The development of scoring model in domestic insurance is given as an example concretely.

A Socio-demographic Study on Foreign Residents in France: A Preliminary Study for the Statistical System of Foreigners in South Korea (프랑스 거주 외국인에 관한 인구사회통계: 우리나라 외국인통계제도정립을 위한 예비적 고찰)

  • Renucci, Florence;Hwang, Myung-Jin
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.157-189
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    • 2008
  • This study aims at exploring some statistical aspects in response to the increase of foreigners and immigrants within the population of Korea. Such an interest conducts our case study of France with regard to the census and legal systems that restrict definition and measures of foreign population in the country. This study also explores historical background, legal entities and authorities involved in policy-related decision making in census and other statistics, and processes of statistical production on the concerned population. Also, an importance of statistical contributions to the immigration policies is discussed.

Towards Improving Causality Mining using BERT with Multi-level Feature Networks

  • Ali, Wajid;Zuo, Wanli;Ali, Rahman;Rahman, Gohar;Zuo, Xianglin;Ullah, Inam
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.3230-3255
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    • 2022
  • Causality mining in NLP is a significant area of interest, which benefits in many daily life applications, including decision making, business risk management, question answering, future event prediction, scenario generation, and information retrieval. Mining those causalities was a challenging and open problem for the prior non-statistical and statistical techniques using web sources that required hand-crafted linguistics patterns for feature engineering, which were subject to domain knowledge and required much human effort. Those studies overlooked implicit, ambiguous, and heterogeneous causality and focused on explicit causality mining. In contrast to statistical and non-statistical approaches, we present Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) integrated with Multi-level Feature Networks (MFN) for causality recognition, called BERT+MFN for causality recognition in noisy and informal web datasets without human-designed features. In our model, MFN consists of a three-column knowledge-oriented network (TC-KN), bi-LSTM, and Relation Network (RN) that mine causality information at the segment level. BERT captures semantic features at the word level. We perform experiments on Alternative Lexicalization (AltLexes) datasets. The experimental outcomes show that our model outperforms baseline causality and text mining techniques.

Sequential Involvement of Distinct Portions of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex in Different Stages of Decision Making Using the Iowa Gambling Task (갬블링 과제를사용한 의사결정 과정에서 중앙 전전두엽의 영역별 활성화에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Jun;Bae, Sung-Jin;Kim, Yang-Tae;Chang, Yong-Min
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2009
  • Purpose : Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was used to assess the temporal response of neural activation in healthy subjects while they performed the Iowa Gambling Test (IGT), which utilizes decisions involving ambiguity and risk. The IGT was divided into five blocks of 20 trials; analysis showed that activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) moves gradually from the dorsal to the ventral mPFC over the course of the IGT. These findings suggest that cognitive division of the mPFC, including the dorsal portion of the anterior cingulated cortex (ACC), plays a major role in ambiguous decision making and that the aspect of the IGT corresponding to risky decision making is associated with significant activity within the corticolimbic network strongly implicated in emotion and reinforcement. Our results also suggest that decisions made under ambiguity and decisions made under risk situations can be further divided into sub-phases based on the neural network involved.

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A Study on Factors of Education's Outcome using Decision Trees (의사결정트리를 이용한 교육성과 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Wan-Seop
    • Journal of Engineering Education Research
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2010
  • In order to manage the lectures efficiently in the university and improve the educational outcome, the process is needed that make diagnosis of the present educational outcome of each classes on a lecture and find factors of educational outcome. In most studies for finding the factors of the efficient lecture, statistical methods such as association analysis, regression analysis are used usually, and recently decision tree analysis is employed, too. The decision tree analysis have the merits that is easy to understand a result model, and to be easy to apply for the decision making, but have the weaknesses that is not strong for characteristic of input data such as multicollinearity. This paper indicates the weaknesses of decision tree analysis, and suggests the experimental solution using multiple decision tree algorithm to supplement these problems. The experimental result shows that the suggested method is more effective in finding the reliable factors of the educational outcome.

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The Effects of Time Management on the Clinical Nurse's Organizational Commitment and Job Satisfaction (임상간호사의 시간관리 요인이 조직몰입 및 직무만족에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim, Ji-Young
    • Journal of Home Health Care Nursing
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of time management on the clinical nurse's organizational commitment and job satisfaction. Methods: Subjects were recruited in two general hospitals in Seoul and Incheon. Data collection was done using a self-report questionnaire. Time management was measured using the questionnaire developed by Han (1992). Organizational commitment and job satisfaction were measured using the questionnaire developed by Yoon (2000), based on Mowday et al. (1979) and Stamps et al. (1978). The data were analyzed using the SAS statistical package program, version 10.0. Specifically, descriptive statistics and stepwise multiple regression were performed. Results: The predictive time management factors for organizational commitment included deadline decision, simplification, and goal-setting. The predictive time management factors for job satisfaction included planning/making the priority order, deadline decision, simplification, asking for help, and responsibility reduction. Conclusion: Time management factors are highly correlated with organizational commitment and job satisfaction in clinical nurses. Deadline decision and simplification are common predictive factors for organizational commitment and job satisfaction. These results can be used to develop more effective time management strategies for increasing organizational effectiveness in clinical nurses.

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