• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.253-258
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to find suitable probability distribution function of complex distribution data like multimodal. Normal distribution is broadly used to assume probability distribution function. However, complex distribution data like multimodal are very hard to be estimated by using normal distribution function only, and there might be errors when other distribution functions including normal distribution function are used. In this study, we experimented to find fit probability distribution function in multimodal area, by using AIS(Automatic Identification System) observation data gathered in Mokpo port for a year of 2013. By using chi-squared statistic, gaussian mixture model(GMM) is the fittest model rather than other distribution functions, such as extreme value, generalized extreme value, logistic, and normal distribution. GMM was found to the fit model regard to multimodal data of maritime traffic flow distribution. Probability density function for collision probability and traffic flow distribution will be calculated much precisely in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.220-225
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• 2013

Accidents between ships occur frequently at the traffic congestion area. Once a maritime accidents occur, it is likely to end up with critical damaged accidents. This paper develop a simulator for assessing quantitative risk based on statical maritime traffic data and realtime traffic distribution. Ship's passage risk assessment simulator consist of import of division of passage data, traffic distribution analysis and passage risk assessment analysis. Maritime traffic data of WANDO waterway apply to simulator for calculation of quantitative risk rate of waterway.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.25-33
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• 2015

The Strait of Malacca is one of the most important fairways in the world and its traffic safety has direct effect on economic development of East Asian countries including China, Japan and Korea. Because of this reason, a safety analysis of the marine traffic in the strait has a great significance. In this paper, we analysed the statistic distribution of marine traffic in the Strait of Malacca based on the vessels' AIS data for 1 month by using the TOAIS and EasyFit programs. As the results of the analysis, it was found that the traffic distribution of this strait was different with normal distribution, which had been still widely used in marine traffic engineering field. Furthermore, with the traffic distribution analysis results, the traffic safety of the strait was also assessed by using the IWRAP model. The results showed that the highest level of risk were overtaking and crossing situations. Finally, we found that the highest risk of collision area in the Strait of Malacca was crossing area between the Strait of Malacca and the Port Klang fairway.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.8
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• pp.519-524
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• 2009

Although it is expected to provide fundamental data for advanced VTS system by analyzing traffic accidents in VTS area, there is no quantitative analysis to find it.. In this research, it is examined and analyzed marine casualties records(1999-2004), data of Port-MIS and data of each VTS center. The results of this research are as below. 1) It is necessary to reduce traffic accident and to improve VTS operating system. 2) It is discovered for statistical discrepancy between vessels controlled by VTS and vessels not controlled by VTS in accident cause, visibility, perception distance and cause of late perception in collision accidents 3) It is necessary for VTS assistance to be positive and to made in ample time consecutively. 4) As the result of traffic accident prediction model, it is necessary to develop a system improving VTS operators' ability to identify dangerous ships.