• Title/Summary/Keyword: State probability

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Optimization of Agri-Food Supply Chain in a Sustainable Way Using Simulation Modeling

  • Vostriakova, Viktorija;Kononova, Oleksandra;Kravchenko, Sergey;Ruzhytskyi, Andriy;Sereda, Nataliia
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.245-256
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    • 2021
  • Poor logistical infrastructure and agri-food supply chain management leads to significant food waste in logistic system. The concept of the sustainable value added agri-food chains requires defined approach to the analysis of the existing situation, possible improving strategies and also assessment of these changes impact on further development. The purpose of research is to provide scientific substantiation of theoretical and methodological principles and develop practical recommendations for the improvement of the agri-food logistics distribution system. A case study methodology is used in this article. The research framework is based on 4 steps: Value Stream Mapping (VSM), Gap and Process Analysis, Validation and Improvement Areas Definition and Imitation Modelling. This paper presents the appropriateness of LEAN logistics tools using, in particular, Value Stream Mapping (VSM) for minimizing logistic losses and Simulation Modeling of possible logistics distribution system improvement results. The algorithm of VSM analysis of the agri-food supply chain, which involves its optimization by implementing the principles of sustainable development at each stage, is proposed. The methodical approach to the analysis of possible ways for optimizing the operation of the logistics system of the agri-food distribution is developed. It involves the application of Value Stream Mapping, i.e. designing of stream maps of the creation of the added value in the agri-food supply chain for the current and future state based on the minimization of logistic losses. Simulation modeling of the investment project on time optimization in the agri-food supply chain and economic effect of proposed improvements in logistics product distribution system functioning at the level of the investigated agricultural enterprise has been determined. Improvement of logistics planning and coordination of operations in the supply chain and the innovative pre-cooling system proposed to be introduced have a 3-year payback period and almost 75-80% probability. Based on the conducted VSM analysis of losses in the agri-food supply chain, there have been determined the main points, where it is advisable to conduct optimization changes for the achievement of positive results and the significant economic effect from the proposed measures has been confirmed. In further studies, it is recommended to focus on identifying the synergistic effect of the agri-food supply chain optimization on the basis of sustainable development.

Evaluating SR-Based Reinforcement Learning Algorithm Under the Highly Uncertain Decision Task (불확실성이 높은 의사결정 환경에서 SR 기반 강화학습 알고리즘의 성능 분석)

  • Kim, So Hyeon;Lee, Jee Hang
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.331-338
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    • 2022
  • Successor representation (SR) is a model of human reinforcement learning (RL) mimicking the underlying mechanism of hippocampal cells constructing cognitive maps. SR utilizes these learned features to adaptively respond to the frequent reward changes. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of SR under the context where changes in latent variables of environments trigger the reward structure changes. For a benchmark test, we adopted SR-Dyna, an integration of SR into goal-driven Dyna RL algorithm in the 2-stage Markov Decision Task (MDT) in which we can intentionally manipulate the latent variables - state transition uncertainty and goal-condition. To precisely investigate the characteristics of SR, we conducted the experiments while controlling each latent variable that affects the changes in reward structure. Evaluation results showed that SR-Dyna could learn to respond to the reward changes in relation to the changes in latent variables, but could not learn rapidly in that situation. This brings about the necessity to build more robust RL models that can rapidly learn to respond to the frequent changes in the environment in which latent variables and reward structure change at the same time.

Seismic Fragility Analysis for Probabilistic Performance Evaluation of PSC Box Girder Bridges (확률론적 내진성능평가를 위한 PSC Box 거더교의 지진취약도 해석)

  • Song, Jong-Keol;Jin, He-Shou;Lee, Tae-Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2A
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2009
  • Seismic fragility curves of a structure represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration ($S_a$) and spectral displacement ($S_d$). So those are very essential to evaluate the structural seismic performance and seismic risk. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges. In order to construct numerical fragility curve of bridge structure using nonlinear time history analysis, a set of ground motions corresponding to design spectrum are artificially generated. Assuming a lognormal distribution, the fragility curve is estimated by using the methodology proposed by Shinozuka et al. PGA is simple and generally used parameter in fragility curve as ground motion intensity. However, the PGA has not good relationship with the inelastic structural behavior. So, $S_a$ and $S_d$ with more direct relationship for structural damage are used in fragility analysis as more useful intensity measures instead of PGA. The numerical fragility curves based on nonlinear time history analysis are compared with those obtained from simple method suggested in HAZUS program.

Analysis of Climate, Weather, Solar Radiation and Solar Energy in Major Cities of Tajikistan (타지키스탄 주요 도시의 기후, 날씨, 일사량 및 태양에너지 분석)

  • Taeyoo Na;Jeongdu Noh;Hyeontae Kim;Seong-Seung Kang
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.389-401
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    • 2023
  • Climate, weather, insolation (solar radiation), and solar energy in major cities of Tajikistan were investigated prior to construction of infrastructure for the Dushanbe Solar Station. In Dushanbe city there was a 70% probability of sunny days from May 16 to October 23, a period of 5.2 months. August had the most sunny days of in the year, with 99% probability of a sunny, the cloudiest month was February with a 41% chance of being sunny. In major cities of the Sughd and Gorno-Badakhshan states, the average number of cloudy days per month was ~3.3, with Dzhauz having 53 day and Fedchnko Glacier 79 days. For the 18 major cities of Tajikistan, the average annual total solar radiation was 2,429 W/m2, and the average monthly solar radiation was 202 W/m2. The city with the lowest annual total and monthly average solar radiation was Shartuz in Sughd state, with values ~2.7% less than the national average. The cities with the highest annual total and monthly average solar radiation were Khorog and Jirgatol in Gorno-Badakhshan state, with values ~10% above the national average. The daily average incident shortwave solar energy in the cities Dushanbe, Karakul, and Jirgatol was ~7.8 kWh per 2.4 m2 during summer (May-August), and 2.7 kWh during winter (November-February), or ~35% that of summer.

Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.187-201
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    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

Analyzing the discriminative characteristic of cover letters using text mining focused on Air Force applicants (텍스트 마이닝을 이용한 공군 부사관 지원자 자기소개서의 차별적 특성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyeok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.75-94
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    • 2021
  • The low birth rate and shortened military service period are causing concerns about selecting excellent military officers. The Republic of Korea entered a low birth rate society in 1984 and an aged society in 2018 respectively, and is expected to be in a super-aged society in 2025. In addition, the troop-oriented military is changed as a state-of-the-art weapons-oriented military, and the reduction of the military service period was implemented in 2018 to ease the burden of military service for young people and play a role in the society early. Some observe that the application rate for military officers is falling due to a decrease of manpower resources and a preference for shortened mandatory military service over military officers. This requires further consideration of the policy of securing excellent military officers. Most of the related studies have used social scientists' methodologies, but this study applies the methodology of text mining suitable for large-scale documents analysis. This study extracts words of discriminative characteristics from the Republic of Korea Air Force Non-Commissioned Officer Applicant cover letters and analyzes the polarity of pass and fail. It consists of three steps in total. First, the application is divided into general and technical fields, and the words characterized in the cover letter are ordered according to the difference in the frequency ratio of each field. The greater the difference in the proportion of each application field, the field character is defined as 'more discriminative'. Based on this, we extract the top 50 words representing discriminative characteristics in general fields and the top 50 words representing discriminative characteristics in technology fields. Second, the number of appropriate topics in the overall cover letter is calculated through the LDA. It uses perplexity score and coherence score. Based on the appropriate number of topics, we then use LDA to generate topic and probability, and estimate which topic words of discriminative characteristic belong to. Subsequently, the keyword indicators of questions used to set the labeling candidate index, and the most appropriate index indicator is set as the label for the topic when considering the topic-specific word distribution. Third, using L-LDA, which sets the cover letter and label as pass and fail, we generate topics and probabilities for each field of pass and fail labels. Furthermore, we extract only words of discriminative characteristics that give labeled topics among generated topics and probabilities by pass and fail labels. Next, we extract the difference between the probability on the pass label and the probability on the fail label by word of the labeled discriminative characteristic. A positive figure can be seen as having the polarity of pass, and a negative figure can be seen as having the polarity of fail. This study is the first research to reflect the characteristics of cover letters of Republic of Korea Air Force non-commissioned officer applicants, not in the private sector. Moreover, these methodologies can apply text mining techniques for multiple documents, rather survey or interview methods, to reduce analysis time and increase reliability for the entire population. For this reason, the methodology proposed in the study is also applicable to other forms of multiple documents in the field of military personnel. This study shows that L-LDA is more suitable than LDA to extract discriminative characteristics of Republic of Korea Air Force Noncommissioned cover letters. Furthermore, this study proposes a methodology that uses a combination of LDA and L-LDA. Therefore, through the analysis of the results of the acquisition of non-commissioned Republic of Korea Air Force officers, we would like to provide information available for acquisition and promotional policies and propose a methodology available for research in the field of military manpower acquisition.

Characterization of an Ion Channel Prepared from Tomato Roots and Inhibitory Effects by Heavy Metal Ions (토마토 뿌리조직에서 분리한 이온채널의 중금속에 의한 저해)

  • Shin, Dae-Seop;Han, Min-Woo;Kim, Young-Kee
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.390-395
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    • 2004
  • In order to characterize ion channels present in tomato roots, microsomes were incorporated into an artificial lipid bilayer arranged for electrophysiological analysis. Of the five different ion channels that could be found, a channel of 450 pS conductance was found most frequently. This channel displayed subconductance states of 450, 257 and 105 pS. All subconductance states showed linear current-voltage relationships. At positive holding potentials, high frequency of transient channel openings was observed; however, at negative potentials, the open times were long and open probability high. Po was 0.83 at -40 mV. When an additional 50 mM $K^+\;or\;Na^+$ was added to the cis side of bilayer, the reversal potentials shifted in the negative direction to near -10 mV. Thus, the 450 pS cation channel selects poorly between $K^+\;and\;Na^+$. In the presence of $100\;{\mu}M$ metal ions, the channel activity was severely inhibited by $La^{3+},\;Ba^{2+},\;and\;Zn^{2+}$, and Po was decreased to 0.2 or even less. However, $Al^{3+}\;and\;Cd^{2+}$ decreased the activity by only 20%. Interestingly, each metal ion showed different kinetics of channel inhibition. While $500\;{\mu}M\;La^{3+}$ inhibited the activities of all subconductance state, 1 mM $Zn^{2+}$ inhibited all except the 105 pS state. $Cd^{2+}$ changed the gating of the channel from a long-opening state to brief transient openings even at negative holding potentials. These data represent that the metal ions may have different binding sites on the channel protein and could be useful modulators and probes to investigate structural characteristics as well as the functional roles of the 450 pS channel on the root physiology.

Feasibility of Tax Increase in Korean Welfare State via Estimation of Optimal Tax burden Ratio (적정조세부담률 추정을 통한 한국 복지국가 증세가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, SeongWook
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.77-115
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to present empirical evidence for discussion of financing social welfare via estimating optimal tax burden in the main member countries of the OECD by using Hausman-Taylor method considering endogeneity of explanatory variables. Also, the author produced an international tax comparison index reflecting theoretical hypotheses on revenue-expenditure nexus within a model to compare real tax burden by countries and to examine feasibility of tax increase in Korea. As a result of the analysis, the higher the level of tax burden was, the higher the level of welfare expenditure was, indicating the connection between high burden and high welfare from the aspect of scale. The results also indicated that the subject countries recently entered into the state of low tax burden. Meanwhile, Korea had maintained low burden until the late 1990s but the tax burden soared up since the financial crisis related to the IMF. However, due to the impact of foreign economy and the tax reduction policy, it reentered into the low-burden state after 2009. On the other hand, the degree of social welfare expenditure's reducing tax burden has been gradually enhanced since the crisis. In this context, the current optimal tax burden ratio of Korea as of 2010 may be 25.8%~26.5% of GDP based on input of welfare expenditure variables, a percent that Korea was investigated to be a 'high tax burden-low ITC' country whose tax increase of 0.7~1.4%p may be feasible and that the success of tax system reform for tax increase might be higher probability when compare to others. However, measures of increasing social security contributions and consumption tax were analyzed to be improper from the aspect of managing finance when compared to increase in other tax items, considering the relatively higher ITC. Tax increase is not necessarily required though there may be room for tax increase; the optimal tax burden ratio can be understood as the level that may be achieved on average when compared to other nations, not as the "proper" level. Thus, discussion of tax increase should be accompanied with comprehensive understanding of models of economic developmental difference from nations and institutional & historical attributes included in specific tax mix.

Development of Deterioration Prediction Model and Reliability Model for the Cyclic Freeze-Thaw of Concrete Structures (콘크리트구조물의 반복적 동결융해에 대한 수치 해석적 열화 예측 및 신뢰성 모델 개발)

  • Cho, Tae-Jun;Kim, Lee-Hyeon;Cho, Hyo-Nam
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2008
  • The initiation and growth processes of cyclic ice body in porous systems are affected by the thermo-physical and mass transport properties, as well as gradients of temperature and chemical potentials. Furthermore, the diffusivity of deicing chemicals shows significantly higher value under cyclic freeze-thaw conditions. Consequently, the disintegration of concrete structures is aggravated at marine environments, higher altitudes, and northern areas. However, the properties of cyclic freeze-thaw with crack growth and the deterioration by the accumulated damages are hard to identify in tests. In order to predict the accumulated damages by cyclic freeze-thaw, a regression analysis by the response surface method (RSM) is used. The important parameters for cyclic freeze-thawdeterioration of concrete structures, such as water to cement ratio, entrained air pores, and the number of cycles of freezing and thawing, are used to compose the limit state function. The regression equation fitted to the important deterioration criteria, such as accumulated plastic deformation, relative dynamic modulus, or equivalent plastic deformations, were used as the probabilistic evaluations of performance for the degraded structural resistance. The predicted results of relative dynamic modulus and residual strains after 300 cycles of freeze-thaw show very good agreements with the experimental results. The RSM result can be used to predict the probability of occurrence for designer specified critical values. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the life cycle management of concrete structures considering the accumulated damages due to the cyclic freeze-thaw using the proposed prediction method.

Case Study on Reliability Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbine Foundation (해상풍력기초 신뢰성해석 사례분석 연구)

  • Yoon, Gillim;Kim, Hongyeon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.12
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, the behavior of offshore wind turbine(OWT) foundation which is modeled by using existing design method and FEM is compared. When the same type of foundation is designed under the same sea and ground condition, the behavior characteristics with each model are compared. As a result, the member forces between apparent fixity and distributed spring type foundation which consider the ground stiffness are not different markedly, while fixed-base type foundation shows relatively lower member forces, which results in smaller safety margin. In other words, considering ground stiffness is reasonable because soil-pile interaction affects significantly on the analysis result. A case study with a monopile shows significant errors between p-y and FEM model at the head and tip of the pile. Also, it shows that the errors at the tip with diameter increase of the pile is larger. Thus, considering ground characteristics and engineering judgment are necessary in practice. A comparison of reliability analysis between tripod and monopile type foundation on the same condition shows larger probability of failure in monopile type and it indicates that the safety margin of monopile type can be lower.