• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.16
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• pp.6929-6934
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• 2014

Background: To analyze the mortality distribution of esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012, to forecast the mortality in the future five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, sex and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the next five years in the future. Results: In China, the incidence rate of esophageal cancer from 2007 and the mortality rate of esophageal cancer from 2008 increased yearly, with males at $8.72/10^5$ being higher than females, and the countryside at $15.5/10^5$ being higher than in the city. The mortality rate increased from age 45. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from southern to eastern China, and from northeast to central China. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer are rising. The regional disease control for esophageal cancer should be focused on eastern, central and northern regions China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men more than 45 years old. The mortality of esophageal cancer will rise in the next five years.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.4501-4504
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• 2012

In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of socialeconomic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.147-153
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• 2005

Objectives: Studies on the geographical differences in mortality tend to use a census population, rather than a registration population, as the denominator of mortality rates in South Korea. However, an administratively determined registration population would be the logical denominator, as the geographical areas for death certificates (numerator) have been determined by the administratively registered residence of the deceased, rather than the actual residence at the time of death. The purpose of this study was to examine the differences in the total number of a district population, and the associated district-specific mortality indicators, when two different measures as a population denominator (census and registration) were used. Methods: Population denominators were obtained from census and registration population data, and the numbers of deaths (numerators) were calculated from raw death certificate data. Sex- and 5-year age-specific numbers for the populations and deaths were used to compute sex- and age-standardized mortality rates (by direct standardization methods) and standardized mortality ratios (by indirect standardization methods). Bland-Altman tests were used to compare district populations and district-specific mortality indicators according to the two different population denominators. Results : In 1995, 9 of 232 (3.9%) districts were not included in the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the population differences. A total of 8 (3.4%) among 234 districts had large differences between their census and registration populations in 2000, which exceeded the 95% CI of the population differences. Most districts (13 of 17) exceeding the 95% CI were rural. The results of the sex- and age-standardized mortality rates showed 15 (6.5%) and 16 (6.8%) districts in 1995 and 2000, respectively, were not included in the 95% CI of the differences in their rates. In addition, the differences in the standardized mortality ratios using the two different population denominators were significantly greater among 14 districts in 1995 and 11 districts in 2002 than the 95% CI. Geographical variations in the mortality indicators, using a registration population, were greater than when using a census population. Conclusion: The use of census population denominators may provide biased geographical mortality indicators. The geographical mortality rates when using registration population denominators are logical, but do not necessarily represent the exact mortality rate of a certain district. The removal of districts with large differences between their census and registration populations or associated mortality indicators should be considered to monitor geographical mortality rates in South Korea.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.243-249
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• 2011

Objectives: Cement contains hexavalent chromium, which is a human carcinogen. However, its effect on cancer seems inconclusive in epidemiologic studies. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to elucidate the association between dust exposure in the cement industry and cancer occurrence. Methods: The cohorts consisted of male workers in 6 Portland cement factories in Korea. Study subjects were classified into five groups by job: quarry, production, maintenance, laboratory, and office work. Cancer mortality and incidence in workers were observed from 1992 to 2007 and 1997-2005, respectively. Standardized mortality ratios and standardized incidence ratios were calculated according to the five job classifications. Results: There was an increased standardized incidence ratio for stomach cancer of 1.56 (27/17.36, 95% confidence interval: 1.02-2.26) in production workers. The standardized mortality ratio for lung cancer increased in production workers. However, was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Our result suggests a potential association between cement exposure and stomach cancer. Hexavalent chromium contained in cement might be a causative carcinogen.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.2785-2791
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• 2014

Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends. Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1739-1750
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• 2012

This study was to develop the assessment of medical service outcome using administration data through compared with hospital standardized mortality ratios(HSMR) in various hospitals. This study analyzed 63,664 cases of Hospital Discharge Injury Data of 2007 and 2008, provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used data mining technique and compared decision tree and logistic regression for developing risk-adjustment model of in-hospital mortality. Our Analysis shows that gender, length of stay, Elixhauser comorbidity index, hospitalization path, and primary diagnosis are main variables which influence mortality ratio. By comparing hospital standardized mortality ratios(HSMR) with standardized variables, we found concrete differences (55.6-201.6) of hospital standardized mortality ratios(HSMR) among hospitals. This proves that there are quality-gaps of medical service among hospitals. This study outcome should be utilized more to achieve the improvement of the quality of medical service.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.24
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• pp.10779-10782
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• 2015

Purpose: Analysis of descriptive epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer in Vojvodina, Serbia. Materials and Methods: The study covers population of Vojvodina in the period from 2000 to 2009. The method used for data processing was the descriptive. The data, referring to a specified period of time, were analyzed from chronological and demographic aspects and according to histological diagnosis. Results: In the period from 2000 to 2009, there were 2,108 registered cases of pancreatic cancer of which 1,886 had a fatal outcome. Standardized incidence rates varied between 5.7 and 9.1 per 100,000 population in males and between 4.2 and 5.3 in females. Linear incidence trends in males in the specified period of time, based on crude (r=0.7883, p<0.05) and standardized (r=0,6373, p<0,05) incidence rates, demonstrated increase. Annual percent increase in the crude incidence rate was 4.5% in males, and 2.8% in females. Age-standardized mortality rates varied between 5.2 and 7.5 per 100,000 population in males and 3.6 and 4.7 in females. Linear mortality trends in males in the specified period of time, based on crude (r=0.8795, p<0.05) and standardized (r=0.7669, p<0.05) mortality rates, also demonstrated annual percent increase. Conclusions: Data analysis shows unfavorable onco-epidemiological situation related to pancreatic cancer in Vojvodina, in aspects of both incidence and mortality. Absence of primary and secondary prevention does not allow medical institutions to successfully fight against this disease.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2013

Objectives: We examined the association between social expenditures of the local government and the mortality level in Korea, 2004 to 2010. Methods: We used social expenditure data of 230 local governments during 2004 to 2010 from the Social Expenditure Database prepared by the Korean Institute for Health and Social Affairs. Fixed effect panel data regression analysis was adopted to look for associations between social expenditures and age-standardized mortality and the premature death index. Results: Social expenditures of local governments per capita was not significantly associated with standardized mortality but was associated with the premature death index (decline of 1.0 [for males] and 0.5 [for females] for each expenditure of 100 000 Korean won, i.e., approximately 100 US dollar). As an index of the voluntary effort of local governments, the self-managed project ratio was associated with a decline in the standardized mortality in females (decline of 0.4 for each increase of 1%). The share of health care was not significant. Conclusions: There were associations between social expenditures of the local government and the mortality level in Korea. In particular, social expenditures per capita were significantly associated with a decline in premature death. However, the voluntary efforts of local governments were not significantly related to the decline in premature death.

• Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.1-12
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• 2020

During the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the western countries with advanced medical technology failed to contain coronavirus. This fact triggered our research question of what factors influence the clinical outcomes like infection rates and case mortality rates. This study aims to identify the determinants of COVID-19 related infection rates and case mortality rates. We considered three sets of independent variables: 1) socio-demographic characteristics; 2) cultural characteristics; 3) healthcare system characteristics. For the analysis, we created an international dataset from diverse sources like World Bank, Worldometers, Hofstede Insight, GHS index etc. The COVID-19 related statistics were retrieved from Aug. 1. Total cases are from 95 countries. We used hierarchical regression method to examine the linear relationship among variables. We found that obesity, uncertainty avoidance, hospital beds per 1,000 made a significant influence on the standardized COVID-19 infection rates. The countries with higher BMI score or higher uncertainty avoidance showed higher infection rates. The standardized COVID-19 infection rates were inversely related to hospital beds per 1,000. In the analysis on the standardized COVID-19 case mortality rates, we found that two cultural characteristics(e.g., individualism, uncertainty avoidance) showed statistically significant influence on the case mortality rates. The healthcare system characteristics did not show any statistically significant relationship with the case mortality rates. The cultural characteristics turn out to be significant factors influencing the clinical outcomes during COVID-19 pandemic. The results imply that the persuasive communication is important to trigger the public commitment to follow preventive measures. The strategy to keep the hospital surge capacity needs to be developed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.149-151
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• 2018

The purpose of this paper is to visualize and to analyze differences of regional mortality rates by major causes of death. We use causes of death statistics from KOSIS and compare regional mortality rates divided by national mortality rates by three causes of death. To do this, we define regional mortality ratio and regional age-standardized mortality ratio, and visualized by choropleth map using R. As a result, In case of neoplasm, there was no significant difference by region. In case of circulatory system, Ulsan, Daegu, Busan and Gyungnam showed relatively high regional age-standardized mortality ratio. In case of respiratory system, the ratios were in order of Gangwon, Sejong, and Chungbuk.