• Title/Summary/Keyword: Standard error of prediction

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A Prediction of N-value Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 N치 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang Myung;Park, Hyoung June;Goo, Tae Hun;Kim, Hyung Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2020
  • Problems arising during pile design works for plant construction, civil and architecture work are mostly come from uncertainty of geotechnical characteristics. In particular, obtaining the N-value measured through the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the most important data. However, it is difficult to obtain N-value by drilling investigation throughout the all target area. There are many constraints such as licensing, time, cost, equipment access and residential complaints etc. it is impossible to obtain geotechnical characteristics through drilling investigation within a short bidding period in overseas. The geotechnical characteristics at non-drilling investigation points are usually determined by the engineer's empirical judgment, which can leads to errors in pile design and quantity calculation causing construction delay and cost increase. It would be possible to overcome this problem if N-value could be predicted at the non-drilling investigation points using limited minimum drilling investigation data. This study was conducted to predicted the N-value using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which one of the Artificial intelligence (AI) method. An Artificial Neural Network treats a limited amount of geotechnical characteristics as a biological logic process, providing more reliable results for input variables. The purpose of this study is to predict N-value at the non-drilling investigation points through patterns which is studied by multi-layer perceptron and error back-propagation algorithms using the minimum geotechnical data. It has been reviewed the reliability of the values that predicted by AI method compared to the measured values, and we were able to confirm the high reliability as a result. To solving geotechnical uncertainty, we will perform sensitivity analysis of input variables to increase learning effect in next steps and it may need some technical update of program. We hope that our study will be helpful to design works in the future.

Development of a Safety and Health Expense Prediction Model in the Construction Industry (건설업 산업안전보건관리비 예측 모델 개발 - 일반건설공사(갑)의 공사비 50억미만 공사를 대상으로 -)

  • Yeom, Dong Jun;Lee, Mi Young;Oh, Se Wook;Han, Seung Woo;Kim, Young Suk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2015
  • The importance of the appropriate use and procurement of Safety and Health Expense has been increasing along with the recent increase of construction projects in height, size and complexity. However, the current standards for deducting the Safety and Health Expense have shown limitations in applying the properties and environment of the construction project due to its Safety and Health Expense Rate's classification method. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model for the Safety and Health Expense that enables the consideration of different environment and properties of construction projects. The study uses multiple regression analysis to analyze the Safety and Health Expense of Ordinary(A) of less than 0.5 billion WON. The research results have shown that the use of multiple regression analysis reduces the error rate to 4.38% which the current standard calculation method have shown 18.48%. Therefore, the use of the suggested model provides reliable Safety and Health Expense prediction values that considers the properties of the project. It is expected that the results of this study contributes to the effective safety management by providing the appropriate amount of Safety and Health Expense to the project. In this study, only projects of less than 5 billion WON have been considered in the analysis. Therefore, more data is required for future studies to suggest an overall Safety and Health Expense predict ion model that covers the whole construction industry.

Prediction of Postoperative Lung Function in Lung Cancer Patients Using Machine Learning Models

  • Oh Beom Kwon;Solji Han;Hwa Young Lee;Hye Seon Kang;Sung Kyoung Kim;Ju Sang Kim;Chan Kwon Park;Sang Haak Lee;Seung Joon Kim;Jin Woo Kim;Chang Dong Yeo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.86 no.3
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    • pp.203-215
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    • 2023
  • Background: Surgical resection is the standard treatment for early-stage lung cancer. Since postoperative lung function is related to mortality, predicted postoperative lung function is used to determine the treatment modality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of linear regression and machine learning models. Methods: We extracted data from the Clinical Data Warehouse and developed three sets: set I, the linear regression model; set II, machine learning models omitting the missing data: and set III, machine learning models imputing the missing data. Six machine learning models, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), Ridge regression, ElasticNet, Random Forest, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) were implemented. The forced expiratory volume in 1 second measured 6 months after surgery was defined as the outcome. Five-fold cross-validation was performed for hyperparameter tuning of the machine learning models. The dataset was split into training and test datasets at a 70:30 ratio. Implementation was done after dataset splitting in set III. Predictive performance was evaluated by R2 and mean squared error (MSE) in the three sets. Results: A total of 1,487 patients were included in sets I and III and 896 patients were included in set II. In set I, the R2 value was 0.27 and in set II, LightGBM was the best model with the highest R2 value of 0.5 and the lowest MSE of 154.95. In set III, LightGBM was the best model with the highest R2 value of 0.56 and the lowest MSE of 174.07. Conclusion: The LightGBM model showed the best performance in predicting postoperative lung function.

Evaluation of a Nutrition Model in Predicting Performance of Vietnamese Cattle

  • Parsons, David;Van, Nguyen Huu;Malau-Aduli, Aduli E.O.;Ba, Nguyen Xuan;Phung, Le Dinh;Lane, Peter A.;Ngoan, Le Duc;Tedeschi, Luis O.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.25 no.9
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    • pp.1237-1247
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the predictions of dry matter intake (DMI) and average daily gain (ADG) of Vietnamese Yellow (Vang) purebred and crossbred (Vang with Red Sindhi or Brahman) bulls fed under Vietnamese conditions using two levels of solution (1 and 2) of the large ruminant nutrition system (LRNS) model. Animal information and feed chemical characterization were obtained from five studies. The initial mean body weight (BW) of the animals was 186, with standard deviation ${\pm}33.2$ kg. Animals were fed ad libitum commonly available feedstuffs, including cassava powder, corn grain, Napier grass, rice straw and bran, and minerals and vitamins, for 50 to 80 d. Adequacy of the predictions was assessed with the Model Evaluation System using the root of mean square error of prediction (RMSEP), accuracy (Cb), coefficient of determination ($r^2$), and mean bias (MB). When all treatment means were used, both levels of solution predicted DMI similarly with low precision ($r^2$ of 0.389 and 0.45 for level 1 and 2, respectively) and medium accuracy (Cb of 0.827 and 0.859, respectively). The LRNS clearly over-predicted the intake of one study. When this study was removed from the comparison, the precision and accuracy considerably increased for the level 1 solution. Metabolisable protein was limiting ADG for more than 68% of the treatment averages. Both levels differed regarding precision and accuracy. While level 1 solution had the least MB compared with level 2 (0.058 and 0.159 kg/d, respectively), the precision was greater for level 2 than level 1 (0.89 and 0.70, respectively). The accuracy (Cb) was similar between level 1 and level 2 (p = 0.8997; 0.977 and 0.871, respectively). The RMSEP indicated that both levels were on average under-or over-predicted by about 190 g/d, suggesting that even though the accuracy (Cb) was greater for level 1 compared to level 2, both levels are likely to wrongly predict ADG by the same amount. Our analyses indicated that the level 1 solution can predict DMI reasonably well for this type of animal, but it was not entirely clear if animals consumed at their voluntary intake and/or if the roughness of the diet decreased DMI. A deficit of ruminally-undegradable protein and/or a lack of microbial protein may have limited the performance of these animals. Based on these evaluations, the LRNS level 1 solution may be an alternative to predict animal performance when, under specific circumstances, the fractional degradation rates of the carbohydrate and protein fractions are not known.

Prediction accuracy of incisal points in determining occlusal plane of digital complete dentures

  • Kenta Kashiwazaki;Yuriko Komagamine;Sahaprom Namano;Ji-Man Park;Maiko Iwaki;Shunsuke Minakuchi;Manabu, Kanazawa
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.281-289
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    • 2023
  • PURPOSE. This study aimed to predict the positional coordinates of incisor points from the scan data of conventional complete dentures and verify their accuracy. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The standard triangulated language (STL) data of the scanned 100 pairs of complete upper and lower dentures were imported into the computer-aided design software from which the position coordinates of the points corresponding to each landmark of the jaw were obtained. The x, y, and z coordinates of the incisor point (XP, YP, and ZP) were obtained from the maxillary and mandibular landmark coordinates using regression or calculation formulas, and the accuracy was verified to determine the deviation between the measured and predicted coordinate values. YP was obtained in two ways using the hamularincisive-papilla plane (HIP) and facial measurements. Multiple regression analysis was used to predict ZP. The root mean squared error (RMSE) values were used to verify the accuracy of the XP and YP. The RMSE value was obtained after crossvalidation using the remaining 30 cases of denture STL data to verify the accuracy of ZP. RESULTS. The RMSE was 2.22 for predicting XP. When predicting YP, the RMSE of the method using the HIP plane and facial measurements was 3.18 and 0.73, respectively. Cross-validation revealed the RMSE to be 1.53. CONCLUSION. YP and ZP could be predicted from anatomical landmarks of the maxillary and mandibular edentulous jaw, suggesting that YP could be predicted with better accuracy with the addition of the position of the lower border of the upper lip.

DETERMINATION OF MOISTURE AND NITROGEN ON UNDRIED FORAGES BY NEAR INFRARED REFLECTANCE SPECTROSCOPY(NIRS)

  • Cozzolino, D.;Labandera, M.;Inia La Estanzuela
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1620-1620
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    • 2001
  • Forages, both grazed and conserved, provide the basis of ruminant production systems throughout the world. More than 90 per cent of the feed energy consumed by herbivorous animals world - wide were provided by forages. With such world - wide dependence on forages, the economic and nutritional necessity of been able to characterize them in a meaningful way is vital. The characterization of forages for productive animals is becoming important for several reasons. Relative to conventional laboratory procedures, Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) offers advantages of simplicity, speed, reduced chemical waste, and more cost-effective prediction of product functionality. NIR spectroscopy represents a radical departure from conventional analytical methods, in that entire sample of forage is characterized in terms of its absorption properties in the near infrared region, rather than separate subsamples being treated with various chemicals to isolate specific components. This forces the analyst to abandon his/her traditional narrow focus on the sample (one analyte at a time) and to take a broader view of the relationship between components within the sample and between the sample and the population from which it comes. forage is usually analysed by NIRS in dry and ground presentation. Initial success of NIRS analysis of coarse forages suggest a need to better understand the potential for analysis of minimally processed samples. Preparation costs and possible compositional alterations could be reduced by samples presented to the instrument in undried and unground conditions. NIRS has gained widespread acceptance for the analysis of forage quality constituents on dry material, however little attention has been given to the use of NIRS for chemical determinations on undried and unground forages. Relatively few works reported the use of NIRS to determine quality parameters on undried materials, most of them on both grass and corn silage. Only two works have been found on the determination of quality parameters on fresh forages. The objectives of this paper were (1) to evaluate the use of NIRS for determination of nitrogen and moisture on undried and unground forage samples and (2) to explore two mathematical treatments and two NIR regions to predict chemical parameters on fresh forage. Four hundred forage samples (n: 400) were analysed in a NIRS 6500 instrument (NIR Systems, PA, USA) in reflectance mode. Two mathematical treatments were applied: 1,4,4,1 and 2,5,5,2. Predictive equations were developed using modified partial least squares (MPLS) with internal cross - validation. Coefficient of determination in calibration (${R^2}_{CAL}$) and standard error in cross-validation (SECV) for moisture were 0.92 (12.4) and 0.92 (12.4) for 1,4,4,1 and 2,5,5,2 respectively, on g $kg^{-1}$ dry weight. For crude protein NIRS calibration statistics yield a (${R^2}_{CAL}$) and (SECV) of 0.85 (19.8) and 0.85 (19.6) for 1,4,4,1 and 2,5,5,2 respectively, on a dry weight. It was concluded that NIRS is a suitable method to predict moisture and nitrogen on fresh forage without samples preparation.

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Predicting Calcium and Phosphorus Concentrations in Imported Hay by near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (근적외선분광법을 이용한 수입건초의 Ca과 P 함량 예측)

  • Lee, Bae Hun;Kim, Ji Hye;Oh, Mirae;Lee, Ki Won;Park, Hyung Soo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 2021
  • Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) is routinely used for the determination of nutrient components of forages. However, little is known about the impact of sample preparation and wavelength on the accuracy of the calibration to predict minerals. This study was conducted to assess the effect of sample preparation and wavelength of near infrared spectrum for the improvement of calibration and prediction accuracy of Calcium (Ca) and Phosphorus (P) in imported hay using NIRS. The samples were scanned in reflectance in a monochromator instrument (680-2,500 nm). Calibration models (n = 126) were developed using partial least squares regression (PLS) based on cross-validation. The optimum calibrations were selected based on the highest coefficients of determination in cross validation (R2) and the lowest standard error of cross-validation (SECV). The highest R2 and the lowest SECV were obtained using oven-dry grinded sample preparation and 1,100-2,500 nm wavelength. The calibration (R2) and SECV were 0.99 (SECV: 468.6) for Ca and 0.91 (SECV: 224.7) for P in mg/kg DM on a dry weight, respectively. Results of this experiment showed the possibility of NIRS method to predict mineral (Ca and P) concentration of imported hay in Korea for routine analysis method to evaluate the feed value.

A $2{\times}2$ Microstrip Patch Antenna Array for Moisture Content Measurement of Paddy Rice (산물벼 함수율 측정을 위한 $2{\times}2$ 마이크로스트립 패치 안테나 개발)

  • 김기복;김종헌;노상하
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2000
  • To develop the grain moisture meter using microwave free space transmission technique, a 10.5GHz microwave signal with the power of 11mW generated by an oscillar with a dielectric resonator is transmitted to an isolator and radiated from a transmitting $2{\times}2$ microstrip patch array antenna into the sample holder filled with the 12 to 26%w.b. of Korean Hwawung paddy rice. the microwave signal, attenuated through the grain with moisture, is collected by a receiving $2{\times}2$ microstrip patch array antenna and detected using a Shottky diode with excellent high frequency characteristic. A pair of light and simple microstrip patch array antenna for measurement of grain moisture content is designed and implemented on atenflon substrate with trleative dielectric constant of 2.6 and thickness of 0.54 by using Ensemble ver. 4.02 software. The aperture of microstrip patch arrays is 41 mm width and 24mm high. The characteristics of microstrip patch antenna such as grain. return loss, and bandwidth are 11.35dBi, -38dB and 0.35GHz($50^{\circ}$ at far-field pattern of E and H plane. The width of the sample holder is large enough to cover the signal between the antennas temperature and bulk density respectively. The calibration model for measurement of grain moisture content is proposed to reduce the effects of fluectuations in bulk density and temperature which give serious errors for the measurements . From the results of regression analysis using the statistically analysis method, the moisture content of grain samples (MC(%)) is expressed in terms of the output voltage(v), temperature (t), and bulk density of samples(${\rho}b$)as follows ;$$MC(%)\;=\;(-3.9838{\times}10^{-8}{\times}v^{3}+8.023{\times}10^{-6}{\times}v^{2}-0.0011{\times}v-0.0004{\times}t+0.1706){\frac{1}{{\rho}b}}{\times}100$ Its determination coefficient, standard error of prediction(SEP) and bias were found to be 0.9855, 0.479%w.b. and -0.0.369 %w.b. respectively between measured and predicted moisture contents of the grain samples.

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A Study on the Allowable Bearing Capacity of Pile by Driving Formulas (각종 항타공식에 의한 말뚝의 허용지지력 연구)

  • 이진수;장용채;김용걸
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2002.03a
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    • pp.197-203
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    • 2002
  • The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also in cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : A a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, in was showed that Terzaghi & Peck > Chin > Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable , time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering News. Modified Engineering News. Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program ) analysis for relation, respectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)}$ $Q_{u(EOID)}$ = 0.971 $t_{0.1}$, 0.968 $t_{0.1}$, 1.192 $t_{0.1}$, 0.88 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$

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Chromatic adaptation model for the variations of the luminance of the same chromaticity illuminants (동일 색도 광원의 휘도 변화에 따른 색 순응 모델)

  • Kim Eun-Su;Jang Soo-Wook;Lee Sung-Hak;Sohng Kyu-lk
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.42 no.4 s.304
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, we propose the chromatic adaptation models (CAM) for the variations of the luminance levels. A chromatic adaptation model, CAM$\Delta$Y , is proposed according to the change of luminance level under the same illuminants. The proposed model is obtained by the transform the test colors of the high luminance into the corresponding colors of the low luminance. In the proposed model, the optimal coefficients are obtained from the corresponding colors data of the Breneman's experiments. In the experimental results, we confined that the chromaticity errors, $\Delta$u'v', between the predicted colors by the proposed model and the corresponding colors of the Breneman's experiments are 0.004 in u'v' chromaticity coordinates. The prediction performance of the proposed model is excellent because this error is the threshold value that two adjacent color patches can be distinguished. Additionally, we also propose equal-whiteness CCT curves (EWCs) by CAM$\Delta$Y according to the luminance levels of the surround viewing conditions. And the proposed EWCs can be used as the theoretical standard which determines the reference white of the color display devices.