• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.79-88
• /
• 2015

Preparations need to be made for Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis) in anticipation of climate change because Korean pine is an endemic species of South Korea and the source of timber and pine nut. Therefore, climate change adaptation policy has been established to conduct an impact assessment on the distribution of Korean pine. Our objective was to predict the distribution of Korean pine while taking into account uncertainty and afforestation conditions. We used the 5th forest types map, a forest site map and BIOCLIM variables. The climate scenarios are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for uncertainty and the climate models are 5 regional climate models (HadGEM3RA, RegCM4, SNURCM, GRIMs, WRF). The base period for this study is 1971 to 2000. The target periods are the mid-21st century (2021-2050) and the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). This study used the MaxEnt model, and 50% of the presences were randomly set as training data. The remaining 50% were used as test data, and 10 cross-validated replicates were run. The selected variables were the annual mean temperature (Bio1), the precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14). The test data's ROC curve of Korean pine was 0.689. The distribution of Korean pine in the mid-21st century decreased from 11.9% to 37.8% on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied from 32.1% to 45.4% on both RCPs. The areas at the end of the 21st century declined by 53.9% on RCP 4.5 and by 86.0% on RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied 23.8% on RCP 4.5 and 7.2% on RCP 8.5. Private forests showed more of a decrease than national forests for all subsequent periods. Our results may contribute to the establishment of climate change adaptation policies for considering various adaptation options.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.101 no.4
• /
• pp.599-605
• /
• 2012

The purpose of this study is to estimate diameter distribution, volume per hectare, and carbon stock for Quercus variabilis stand. 354 Quercus variabilis stands were selected on the basis of age and structure, the data and samples for these stands are collected. For the prediction of diameter distribution, Weibull model was applied and for the estimation of the parameters, a simplified method-of-moments was applied. To verify the accuracy of estimates, models were developed using 80% of the total data and validation was done on the remaining 20%. For the verification of the model, the fitness index, the root mean square error, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics were used. The fitness index of the site index, height, and volume equation estimated from verification procedure were 0.967, 0.727, and 0.988 respectively and the root mean square error were 2.763, 1.817, and 0.007 respectively. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test applied to Weibull function resulted in 75%. From the models developed in this research, the estimated volume and above-ground carbon stock were derived as $188.69m^3/ha$, 90.30 tC/ha when site index and stem number of 50-years-old Quercus variabilis stand show 14 and 697 respectively. The results obtained from this study may provide useful information about the growth of broad-leaf species and prediction of carbon stock for Quercus variabilis stand.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
• /
• v.35 no.3
• /
• pp.413-425
• /
• 2017

This manuscript describes the relationship between climate change and forest growth, forest species, carbon stocks, and tree mortality. 1) In the aspect of forest growth, the growth of major coniferous species, including Pinus densiflora, had a negative correlation with temperature. On the other hand, major deciduous oak species, including Quercus variabilis and Quercus mongolica, had a positive correlation with temperature. 2) When considered in the aspect of the forest species distribution, various models commonly showed a decrease in the distribution of coniferous species and an increase in oak species due to climate change in the medium to long term. 3) From the carbon stock perspective, there was a difference in the estimation according to the status of forest management. Most of Korean forests will mature to become over-matured forest after year 2030 and are estimated to produce approximately 410 million ton forest biomass until 2090 with the current cutting regulations for sustainable forest management announced by the Korean Forest Service. 4) In the forest mortality, the mortality rate of the major coniferous species showed a clear tendency to increase higher temperatures while it decreased for the oak species with no verification of statistical significance. Moreover, the mortality of the subalpine coniferous species was projected to progress rapidly. considering the overall impacts described above, there should be a management strategy for coniferous species that are relatively vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, a sustainable forest plan in the aspect of ecosystem services, carbon sequestration and storage, which is linked to global issues such as Sustainable Development Goals, ecosystem services and negative emission.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.41 no.11
• /
• pp.310-317
• /
• 2017

Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.348-357
• /
• 2015

The main purpose of this study is to understand the potential geographic distribution of P. koraiensis, which is known to be one of major economic tree species, based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenarios and current geographic distribution from National Forest Inventory(NFI) data using ecological niche modeling. P. koraiensis abundance data extracted from NFI were utilized to estimate current geographic distribution. Also, GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model, one of the ecological niche models, was applied to estimate potential geographic distribution and to project future changes. Environmental explanatory variables showing Area Under Curve (AUC) value bigger than 0.6 were selected and constructed into the final model by running the model for each of the 27 variables. The results of the model validation which was performed based on confusion matrix statistics, showed quite high suitability. Currently P. koraiensis is distributed widely from 300m to 1,200m in altitude and from south to north as a result of national greening project in 1970s although major populations are found in elevated and northern area. The results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of P. koraiensis and projecting their future changes. Future model for P. koraiensis suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090s showing dramatic habitat loss. Considering the increasing status of atmospheric $CO_2$ and air temperature in Korea, P. koraiensis seems to experience the significant decrease of potential distribution range in the future. The final model in this study may be used to identify climate change impacts on distribution of P. koraiensis in Korea, and a deeper understanding of its correlation may be helpful when planning afforestation strategies.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.40 no.2
• /
• pp.49-70
• /
• 2009

This study proviedes GARCH model(Bollerslev, 1986) to analyze the structural characteristics of price volatility in domestic aquacultural fish market of Korea. As a case study, flatfish and rock-fish are analyzed as major species with relatively high portion in an aspect of production volume among fish captured in Korea. For analyzing, this study uses daily market data (dating from Jan 1 2000 to June 30, 2008) published by the Noryangjin Fisheries Wholesale Market which is located in Seoul of Korea. This study performs normality test on trading volume and price volatility of flatfish and rock-fish as an advanced empirical approach. The normality test adopted is Jarque-Bera test statistic. As a result, first, a null hypothesis that "an empirical distribution follows normal distribution" was rejected in both fishes. The distribution of daily market data of them were not only biased toward positive(+) direction in terms of kurtosis and skewness, but also characterized by leptokurtic distribution with long right tail. Secondly, serial correlations were found in data on market trading volume and price volatility of two species during very long period. Thirdly, the results of unit root test and ARCH-LM test showed that all data of time series were very stationary and demonstrated effects of ARCH. These statistical characteristics can be explained as a reasonable ground for supporting the fitness of GARCH model in order to estimate conditional variances that reveal price volatility in empirical analysis. From empirical data analysis above, this study drew the following conclusions. First of all, from an empirical analysis on potential effects of seasonality and the day of week on price volatility of aquacultural fish, Monday effects were found in both species and Thursday and Friday effects were also found in flatfish. This indicates that Monday is effective in expanding price volatility of aquacultural fish market and also Monday has higher effects upon the price volatility of fish than other days of week have since it has more new information for weekend. Secondly, the empirical analysis led to a common conclusion that there was very high price volatility of flatfish and rock-fish. This points out that the persistency parameter($\lambda$), an index of possibility for current volatility to sustain similarly in the future, was higher than 0.8-equivalently nearly to 1-in both flatfish and rock-fish, which presents volatility clustering. Also, this study estimated and compared and model that hypothesized normal distributions in order to determine fitness of respective models. As a result, the fitness of GARCH(1, 1)-t model was better than model where the distribution of error term was hypothesized through-distribution due to characteristics of fat-tailed distribution, was also better than model, as described in the results of basic statistic analysis. In conclusion, this study has an important mean in that it was introduced firstly in Korea to investigate in price volatility of Korean aquacultural fishery products, although there was partially a limited of official statistic data. Therefore, it is expected that the results of this study will be useful as a reference material for making and assessing governmental policies. Also, it is looked forward that the results will be helpful to build a fishery business plan as and aspect of producer, and also to take timely measures to potential price fluctuations of fishery products in market. Hence, it is advisable that further studies related to such price volatility in fishery market will extend and evolve into a wider variety of articles and issues in near future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.90 no.2
• /
• pp.176-183
• /
• 2001

Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is the most economically important timber producing species in the southern United States. Much attention has been given to predicting diameter distributions for the solution of multiple-product yield estimates. The three-parameter Weibull diameter distribution yield prediction systems were developed for loblolly pine plantations. A parameter recovery procedure for the Weibull distribution function based on four percentile equations was applied to develop diameter distribution yield prediction models. Four percentiles (0th, 25th, 50th, 95th) of the cumulative diameter distribution were predicted as a function of quadratic mean diameter. Individual tree height prediction equations were developed for the calculation of yields by diameter class. By using individual tree content prediction equations, expected yield by diameter class can be computed. To reduce rounding-off errors, the Weibull cumulative upper bound limit difference procedure applied in this study shows slightly better results compared with upper and lower bound procedure applied in the past studies. To evaluate this system, the predicted diameter distributions were tested against the observed diameter distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample test at the ${\alpha}$=0.05 level to check if any significant differences existed. Statistically, no significant differences were detected based on the data from 516 evaluation data sets. This diameter distribution yield prediction system will be useful in loblolly pine stand structure modeling, in updating forest inventories, and in evaluating investment opportunities.

• Biomolecules & Therapeutics
• /
• v.28 no.5
• /
• pp.414-422
• /
• 2020

Fangchinoline (FAN) is a bisbenzylisoquinoline alkaloid that is widely known for its anti-tumor properties. The goal of this study is to examine the effects of FAN on arthritis and the possible pathways it acts on. Human fibroblast-like synovial cells (FLS), carrageenan/kaolin arthritis rat model (C/K), and collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) mice model were used to establish the efficiency of FAN in arthritis. Human FLS cells were treated with FAN (1, 2.5, 5, 10 µM) 1 h before IL-1β (10 ng/mL) stimulation. Cell viability, reactive oxygen species measurement, and western blot analysis of inflammatory mediators and the MAPK and NF-κB pathways were performed. In the animal models, after induction of arthritis, the rodents were given 10 and 30 mg/kg of FAN orally 1 h before conducting behavioral experiments such as weight distribution ratio, knee thickness measurement, squeaking score, body weight measurement, paw volume measurement, and arthritis index measurement. Rodent knee joints were also analyzed histologically through H&E staining and safranin staining. FAN decreased the production of inflammatory cytokines and ROS in human FLS cells as well as the phosphorylation of the MAPK pathway and NF-κB pathway in human FLS cells. The behavioral parameters in the C/K rat model and CIA mouse model and inflammatory signs in the histological analysis were found to be ameliorated in FAN-treated groups. Cartilage degradation in CIA mice knee joints were shown to have been suppressed by FAN. These findings suggest that fangchinoline has the potential to be a therapeutic source for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

• Journal of Veterinary Science
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.53.1-53.12
• /
• 2023

Background: Mammalian orthoreovirus type 3 (MRV3), which is responsible for gastroenteritis in many mammalian species including pigs, has been isolated from piglets with severe diarrhea. However, the use of pig-derived cells as an infection model for swine-MRV3 has rarely been studied. Objectives: This study aims to establish porcine intestinal organoids (PIOs) and examine their susceptibility as an in vitro model for intestinal MRV3 infection. Methods: PIOs were isolated and established from the jejunum of a miniature pig. Established PIOs were characterized using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and immunofluorescence assays (IFAs) to confirm the expression of small intestine-specific genes and proteins, such as Lgr5, LYZI, Mucin-2, ChgA, and Villin. The monolayered PIOs and three-dimensional (3D) PIOs, obtained through their distribution to expose the apical surface, were infected with MRV3 for 2 h, washed with Dulbecco's phosphate-buffered saline, and observed. Viral infection was confirmed using PCR and IFA. We performed quantitative real-time reverse transcription-PCR to assess changes in viral copy numbers and gene expressions linked to intestinal epithelial genes and antiviral activity. Results: The established PIOs have molecular characteristics of intestinal organoids. Infected PIOs showed delayed proliferation with disruption of structures. In addition, infection with MRV3 altered the gene expression linked to intestinal epithelial cells and antiviral activity, and these effects were observed in both 2D and 3D models. Furthermore, viral copy numbers in the supernatant of both models increased in a time-dependent manner. Conclusions: We suggest that PIOs can be an in vitro model to study the infection mechanism of MRV3 in detail, facilitating pharmaceutical development.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.85 no.3
• /
• pp.453-461
• /
• 1996

Three Phyllostachys stands of P. pubescens, P. bambusoides and P. nigra var, henonis in Sunchon were studied to investigate biomass, net production and nutrient distribution. Five $10m{\times}10m$ quadrats were set up and 20 sample culms of 2 years and over were harvested for dimension analysis in each stand. One year old culms and subterranean parts were estimated by the harvested quadrat method. The largest mean DBH, height and basal area were shown in P. pubescens stand, and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand and P. bambusoides stand. There was little difference in accuracy among three allometric biomass regression models of logWt=A+B1ogD, $logWt=A+BlogD^2H$ and logWt=A+BlogD+ClogH, where Wt, D and H were dry weight, DBH and height, respectively. Analysis of covariance showed that there were significant differences in intercept among the linear allometric biomass regressons of three Phyllostachys species. Biomass included subterranean parts was the largest in P. pubescens stand(103.621t/ha), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(86.447t/ha) and P. bambusoides stand(36.767t/ha). Leaf biomass was 6.3% to 7.8% of total biomass in each stands. The ratio of aboveground biomass and subterranean biomass in each stand was 1.87 to 2.26. Net production included subterranean parts was the greatest in P. pubescens stand(6.115t/ha/yr), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(5.609t/ha/yr) and P, bambusoides stand(3.252t/ha/yr). The highest net assimilation ratio was estimated in P. pubescens stand(2.979), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(2.752) and P. bambusoides stand(2.187). Biomass accumulation ratio of each stand was 2.679 to 5.358. Concentrations of N, P and Mg were the highest in leaves, and followed by subterranean parts, and culms+branches in all three species. Concentration of Ca was the highest in leaves, and followed by culms+branches, and subterranean parts in all three species. The difference in biomass among three species stands was caused by their culm size, leaf biomass, net assimilation ratio, and efficiency of leaves to produce culms.