• Title/Summary/Keyword: Species distribution models

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Projecting the Potential Distribution of Abies koreana in Korea Under the Climate Change Based on RCP Scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 우리나라 구상나무 잠재 분포 변화 예측)

  • Koo, Kyung Ah;Kim, Jaeuk;Kong, Woo-seok;Jung, Huicheul;Kim, Geunhan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2016
  • The projection of climate-related range shift is critical information for conservation planning of Korean fir (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson). We first modeled the distribution of Korean fir under current climate condition using five single-model species distribution models (SDMs) and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method and then predicted the distributions under future climate conditions projected with HadGEM2-AO under four $CO_2$ emission scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. We also investigated the predictive uncertainty stemming from five individual algorithms and four $CO_2$ emission scenarios for better interpretation of SDM projections. Five individual algorithms were Generalized linear model (GLM), Generalized additive model (GAM), Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Generalized boosted model (GBM) and Random forest (RF). The results showed high variations of model performances among individual SDMs and the wide range of diverging predictions of future distributions of Korean fir in response to RCPs. The ensemble model presented the highest predictive accuracy (TSS = 0.97, AUC = 0.99) and predicted that the climate habitat suitability of Korean fir would increase under climate changes. Accordingly, the fir distribution could expand under future climate conditions. Increasing precipitation may account for increases in the distribution of Korean fir. Increasing precipitation compensates the negative effects of increasing temperature. However, the future distribution of Korean fir is also affected by other ecological processes, such as interactions with co-existing species, adaptation and dispersal limitation, and other environmental factors, such as extreme weather events and land-use changes. Therefore, we need further ecological research and to develop mechanistic and process-based distribution models for improving the predictive accuracy.

Two-dimensional continuum modelling of an inductively coupled plasma reactor

  • Kim, Dong-Ho;Shung, Won-Young;Kim, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Crystal Growth and Crystal Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.128-133
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    • 2000
  • Numerical analysis of the transport phenomena in an inductively coupled plasma reactor was conducted with two-dimensional axisymmetric model including the electromagnetic field model, electron and species density models. The spatial distribution of the charged species in the ion flux to the wafer have been calculated to examine the influence of the process conditions including antenna and reactor geometry. The antenna radius had a significant influence on the plasma state and axial ion flux distribution.

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Estimation on Altitudinal Spectrum of Suitability for Four Species of the Mayfly Genus Ephemera (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) Using Probability Distribution Models (확률분포모형을 이용한 하루살이속(Ephemera) 4종의 고도구배에 따른 서식처적합도 평가)

  • Dongsoo Kong;Bomi Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.302-315
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    • 2023
  • Distribution characteristics and altitudinal gradient of four species (E. strigata, E. separigata, E. orientalis-sachalinensis group) of the mayfly genus Ephemera (Order Ephemeroptera) were analyzed with probability distribution models (exponential, normal, lognormal, logistic, Weibull, gamma, beta, Gumbel). Data was collected from 23,846 sampling units of 6,787 sites in Korea from 2010 to 2021. The beta distribution model showed the best fit for positively skewed E. orientalis-sachalinensis and little-skewed E. strigata along with altitudinal gradient. The reversed lognormal distribution model showed the best-fit for negatively skewed E. separigata. E. orientalis-sachalinensis distributed at the range of altitude 1~700 m (mean 251 m, median 226 m, mode 124 m, and standard deviation 161 m), E. strigata distributed at the range of altitude 5~871 m (mean 474 m, median 478 m, mode 492 m, and standard deviation 200 m), E. separigata distributed at the range of altitude 7~846 m (mean 620 m, median 659 m, mode 760 m, and standard deviation 181 m). Altitudinal habitat suitability ranges were estimated to be 42~257 m for E. orientalis-sachalinensis, 335~644 m for E. strigata, and 641~824 m for E. separigata. Based on the altitudinal spectrum of suitability and altitude-related temperature analysis results, E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be thermophilic, E. strigata to be mesophilic, and E. separigata to be thermophobic. This is the first national-scale evaluation of the altitudinal distribution of Ephemera in Korea. These results will be used in a further research study on altitudinal shift of the species of Ephemera under climate change.

Comparison of Species Distribution Models According to Location Data (위치자료의 종류에 따른 생물종 분포모형 비교 연구)

  • Seo, Chang-Wan;Park, Yu-Ri;Choi, Yun-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.59-64
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    • 2008
  • We need to use the strength of each Species Distribution Model(SDM) because presence location data were only collected due to time and economic limitations in Korea. This study investigated and compared GAM(Generalized Additive Model) which is one of presence-absence models with Maxent(Maximum Entropy Model) which is one of presence only models according to location data(presence/absence data). The target species was Fisher(Martes pennanti) which is an endangered species in California, USA. We implemented environmental data such as topography, climate and vegetation, and applied models to sub-regions and study area. The results of this study were as follows. Firstly, GAM which used real presence and absence data was better than GAM which used pseudo-absence data and Maxent which used presence-only data. Secondly, Maxent was better than GAM when presence-only data were used. Lastly, each model which applied to different regions didn't predict other area well due to the difference of habitat environment and over-predicted outside of study area. We need to select an optimal model to predict a suitable habitat according to the type and distribution of location data.

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Evaluation of Habitat Suitability of Honey Tree Species, Kalopanax septemlobus Koidz., Tilia amurensis Rupr. and Styrax obassis Siebold & Z ucc. in the Baekdudaegan Mountains using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모형을 활용한 백두대간에 자생하는 주요 밀원수종인 음나무, 피나무, 쪽동백나무의 서식지 적합성 평가)

  • Sim, Hyung Seok;Lee, Min-Ki;Lee, Chang-Bae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.1
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2022
  • In this study, habitat suitability was analyzed for three major honey tree species, namely Kalopanax septemlobus, Tilia amurensis, and Styrax obassis, in the Baekdudaegan Mountains using MaxEnt models. The AUC values indicating the prediction accuracies of the models were 0.747, 0.790, and 0.755 for K. septemlobus, T. amurensis, and S. obassis, respectively. The most important variables for K. septemlobus and T. amurensis were elevation, mean annual temperature, and slope, whereas mean annual temperature, elevation, and mean annual precipitation were the most important predictors for S. obassis. For all three studied species, elevation and mean annual temperature were the most important topographic and climatic factors, respectively, indicating that such variables are crucial for explaining species distribution. Honey tree species are essential resources in forest beekeeping, a high value-added process for improving forest income, and this study identified sites with the potential for management of such species in the Baekdudaegan Mountains, where it may be possible to establish a honey forest. However, the accuracy of the models should be improved through comprehensive analysis with abiotic variables, such as soil properties and aridity, which affect the distribution of honey tree species, as well as biotic variables, such as interspecific competition.

Interspecific Competition and spatial Ecology of three Species of Vipers in Korea: An Application of Ecological niche-based Models and GIS (한국산 살모사과 3종의 경쟁과 공간적 생태 - 생태적 지위를 기반으로 한 모델과 지리정보시스템 적용 -)

  • Do, Min Seock;Lee, Jin-Won;Jang, Hoan-Jin;Kim, Dae-In;Yoo, Jeong-Chil
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2016
  • Knowledge of the relationships among interspecific competition, spatial distributions and ecological niches plays an important role in understanding biogeographical distribution patterns of species. In this study, the distributional characteristics and ecological niches of the three Viperidae species (Gloydius ussuriensis, G. brevicaudus, and G. saxatilis) in South Korea were determined based on observation data and species distribution model. The effects of interspecific competition on geographical distribution and the division of the ecological niches of the vipers were also examined based on the models of predicted species distribution. The results showed that altitude was the most important environmental variable for their distribution, and the altitudes at which these snakes were distributed correlated with the climate of that region. Although interspecific ecological niches are quite overlapped, their predicted distribution patternsvary by the Taebaek Mountains. When overlaying the distribution models, most of the overlapping habitats were forest areas, which were relatively less overlapped than were the entire research areas. Thus, a parapatric distribution pattern was expected. The abundance of species occurring sympatrically was positively correlated with each other, indicating the lack of serious interspecies competition in this region. In conclusion, although the three Viperidae species in South Korea occupy similar ecological niches, these snakes exhibit parapatric distribution patterns without direct competition. Further research on various geographic variables (e.g., altitude, microhabitat characteristics) using relatively fine grid sizes, as well as further detailed ecological and behavioral research, is needed to determine the causative factors for the parapatric distribution pattern.

Habitat Connectivity Assessment of Tits Using a Statistical Modeling: Focused on Biotop Map of Seoul, South Korea (통계모형을 활용한 박새류의 서식지 연결성 평가: 서울시 도시생태현황도 자료를 중심으로)

  • Song, Wonkyong;Kim, Eunyoung;Lee, Dongkun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.219-230
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    • 2013
  • Species distribution modeling is one of the most effective habitat analysis methods for wildlife conservation. This study was for evaluating the suitability of species distribution to distance between forest patches in Seoul city using tits. We analyzed the distribution of the four species of tits: varied tit (Parus varius), marsh tit (P. palustris), great tit (P. major) and coal tit (P. ater), using the landscape indexes and connectivity indexes, and compared the resulting suitability indexes from 100m to 1,000m. As factors affecting to the distribution of tits, we calculated landscape indices by separating them into intra-patch indices (i.e. logged patch area (PA), area-weighted mean patch shape index (PSI), tree rate (TR)) and inter-patch indices (i.e. patch degree (PD), patch betweenness (PB), difference probability of connectivity (DPC)), to analyze the internal properties of the patches and their connectivity by tits occurrence data using logistic regression modeling. The models were evaluated by AICc (Akaike Information Criteria with a correction for finite sample sizes) and AUC (Area Under Curve of ROC). The results of AICc and AUC showed DPC, PA, PSI, and TR were important factors of the habitat models for great tit and marsh tit at the level of distance 500~800m. In contrast, habitat models for coal tit and varied tit, which are known as forest interior species, reflected PA, PSI, and TR as intra-patch indices rather than connectivity. These mean that coal tit and varied tit are more likely to find a large circular forest patch than a small and long-shaped forest patch, which are higher rate of forest. Therefore, different strategies are required in order to enhance the habitats of the forest birds, tits, in a region that has fragmented forest patches such as Seoul city. It is important to manage forest interior areas for coal tit and varied tit, which are known as forest interior species and to manage not only forest interior areas but also connectivity of the forest patches in the threshold distance for great tit and marsh tit as adapted species to the urban ecosystem for sustainable ecosystem management.

Modeling the Natural Occurrence of Selected Dipterocarp Genera in Sarawak, Borneo

  • Teo, Stephen;Phua, Mui-How
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.170-178
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    • 2012
  • Dipterocarps or Dipterocarpaceae is a commercially important timber producing and dominant keystone tree family in the rain forests of Borneo. Borneo's landscape is changing at an unprecedented rate in recent years which affects this important biodiversity. This paper attempts to model the natural occurrence (distribution including those areas with natural forests before being converted to other land uses as opposed to current distribution) of dipterocarp species in Sarawak which is important for forest biodiversity conservation and management. Local modeling method of Inverse Distance Weighting was compared with commonly used statistical method (Binary Logistic Regression) to build the best natural distribution models for three genera (12 species) of dipterocarps. Database of species occurrence data and pseudoabsence data were constructed and divided into two halves for model building and validation. For logistic regression modeling, climatic, topographical and edaphic parameters were used. Proxy variables were used to represent the parameters which were highly (p>0.75) correlated to avoid over-fitting. The results show that Inverse Distance Weighting produced the best and consistent prediction with an average accuracy of over 80%. This study demonstrates that local interpolation method can be used for the modeling of natural distribution of dipterocarp species. The Inverse Distance Weighted was proven a better method and the possible reasons are discussed.

Estimation on Physical Microhabitat Suitability for Species of the Mayfly Genus Ephemera (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) Using Probability Distribution Models (확률분포모형을 이용한 하루살이속(Ephemera) 종들의 물리적 미소서식처 적합도 평가)

  • Dongsoo Kong;Jeaha Song
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.396-412
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    • 2023
  • Species from the mayfly genus Ephemera (Order Ephemeroptera) was assessed for their physical microhabitat suitability (namely E. strigata, E. separigata, and E. orientalis-sachalinensis). Probability distribution models (Exponential, Normal, Lognormal, Logistic, Weibull, Gamma, Beta, and Gumbel) based on the data collected from 23,957 sampling units of 6,787 sites in Korea from 2010 to 2021 were used. Mode and standard deviation calculated from the best-fitting models to species distribution along a water depth gradient were 265 cm and 159 cm in E. orientalis-sachalinensis; 10 cm and 83 cm in E. strigata; 20 cm and 15 cm in E. separigata, respectively. The current velocity gradient was 22 cm/s and 40 cm/s in E. orientalis-sachalinensis; 60 cm/s and 53 cm/s in E. strigata; 82 cm/s and 25 cm/s in E. separigata, respectively. The mean diameter (phi scale) of substrate grains were -3.6 and 2.2 in E. orientalis-sachalinensis; -7.4 and 1.5 in E. strigata; -5.8 and 0.9 in E. separigata, respectively. Habitat suitability range of E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be 161~369 cm (water depth), 5~44 cm/s (current velocity), -5.2~-2.0 (mean diameter); 3~34 cm (water depth), 36~94 cm/s (current velocity), -8.1~-6.3 (mean diameter) for E. strigata; 12~32 cm (water depth), 63~96 cm/s (current velocity), -6.3~-5.2 (mean diameter) for E. separigata. In relative comparison, E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be rheophobic, eurybathophilic, and eurypsephophilic; E. strigata to be euryrheophilic, bathophobic, and lithophilic; E. separigata to be stenomesorheophilic, stenobathophobic, stenolithophilic.

The biodiversity representation assessment in South Korea's protected area network (보호지역 관리를 위한 생물다양성 평가)

  • Choe, Hye-Yeong;James H., Thorne;Joo, Woo-Yeong;Kwon, Hyuk-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2020
  • National parks and other protected areas often do not adequately protect national biodiversity because they were originally created for socio-economic and/or aesthetic values. The Korean government has committed to expanding the extent of protected areas to fulfill its commitments to the Aichi Biodiversity Convention. To do so, it is necessary to quantify the current levels of biodiversity representation within existing protected areas and to identify additional conservation needs for vulnerable species and ecological systems. In this study, we assess the proportion of species ranges found in South Korea's protected areas, for the species documented in the 3rd National Ecosystem Survey. We modeled the range distribution of 3,645 species in the following taxonomic groups; plants (1,545 species), mammals (35), birds (132), herptiles (35), and insects (1,898) using the MaxEnt species distribution model and calculated how much of each species' range is within protected areas. On average, 17.4% of plant species' ranges are represented in protected areas, while for mammals and insects an average 12.0% is currently conserved. Conservation representation for herptiles averages 9.3%, while it is 8.6% for birds. Although large proportions of species that have restricted distributions should be represented in protected areas, 17 plant species, two insects (Parnassius bremeri and Lasioglossum occidens), and one bird species (Phylloscopus inornatus) with ranges smaller than 1,000 ㎢ have less than 10% of their ranges within protected areas. Establishing specific conservation goals such as the protection of endangered species or vulnerable taxonomic groups will increase the efficiency of the biodiversity conservation strategies. In addition, lowland coastal areas are critical for biodiversity conservation because the protected areas in South Korea are mainly composed of high mountainous areas.