• 제목/요약/키워드: Spatial error model

검색결과 431건 처리시간 0.024초

GIS기반 K-DRUM을 이용한 금강권 대유역 홍수유출 적용 (Application of Flood Discharge for Gumgang Watershed Using GIS-based K-DRUM)

  • 박진혁;허영택
    • 대한공간정보학회지
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2010
  • 지금까지 국내에서 개발된 분포형 강우-유출모형은 입력 자료의 구축에 많은 시간과 노력이 필요하며, 유출과정에서 운동역학적인 이론에 근거하여 물의 흐름을 수치해석으로 추적해 나가는데 많은 계산시간이 소요되는 단점이 있었다. 그래서 지금까지 분포형모형의 적용유역은 대부분 일정규모 이내의 유역에 국한되어 적용되어왔다. 하지만, 최근 유역관리 개념의 변화에 따라 통합유역관리의 필요성이 증대되면서 댐의 상.하류를 포함한 유역전체의 유출계산이 요구되었다. 본 논문은 자체개발한 GIS기반의 물리학적 분포형 강우-유출모형인 K-DRUM을 국내 대유역인 금강권수계 전체를 대상으로 모의하여 홍수유출시 대유역에 대하여 분포형모형의 실무에서의 적용 가능성을 검토하였다. GIS수문매개변수를 DEM, 토지피복도, 토양도 등의 기본 GIS자료들로부터 추출하여 모형의 입력인자로 사용하였으며, 초기 토양함수조건을 설정하는데 있어서 자동보정기법을 적용함으로써 기존의 시행착오법으로 인해 소요되는 시간과 부정확한 설정으로 인해 발생될 수 있는 문제점을 해결하였다. 태풍 "에위니아"를 대상으로 용담, 대청, 공주 지점에서의 유출량 모의 결과 체적오차백분율은 13.3~25.6%, 첨두유량오차백분율은 5.4~22.8%, 총유출량오차는 7.3~12.5%로 실무적용 가능성이 충분한 것으로 판단된다.

Development of Field Scale Model for Estimating Garlic Growth Based on UAV NDVI and Meteorological Factors

  • Na, Sang-Il;Min, Byoung-keol;Park, Chan-Won;So, Kyu-Ho;Park, Jae-Moon;Lee, Kyung-Do
    • 한국토양비료학회지
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    • 제50권5호
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    • pp.422-433
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    • 2017
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has several advantages over conventional remote sensing techniques. They can acquire high-resolution images quickly and repeatedly. And with a comparatively lower flight altitude, they can obtain good quality images even in cloudy weather. In this paper, we developed for estimating garlic growth at field scale model in major cultivation regions. We used the $NDVI_{UAV}$ that reflects the crop conditions, and seven meteorological elements for 3 major cultivation regions from 2015 to 2017. For this study, UAV imagery was taken at Taean, Changnyeong, and Hapcheon regions nine times from early February to late June during the garlic growing season. Four plant growth parameters, plant height (P.H.), leaf number (L.N.), plant diameter (P.D.), and fresh weight (F.W.) were measured for twenty plants per plot for each field campaign. The multiple linear regression models were suggested by using backward elimination and stepwise selection in the extraction of independent variables. As a result, model of cold type explain 82.1%, 65.9%, 64.5%, and 61.7% of the P.H., F.W., L.N., P.D. with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.98 cm, 5.91 g, 1.05, and 3.43 cm. Especially, model of warm type explain 92.9%, 88.6%, 62.8%, 54.6% of the P.H., P.D., L.N., F.W. with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 16.41 cm, 9.08 cm, 1.12, 19.51 g. The spatial distribution map of garlic growth was in strong agreement with the field measurements in terms of field variation and relative numerical values when $NDVI_{UAV}$ was applied to multiple linear regression models. These results will also be useful for determining the UAV multi-spectral imagery necessary to estimate growth parameters of garlic.

기후변화에 따른 벚꽃 개화일의 시공간 변이 (Climate Change Impact on the Flowering Season of Japanese Cherry (Prunus serrulata var. spontanea) in Korea during 1941-2100)

  • 윤진일
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.68-76
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    • 2006
  • A thermal time-based two-step phenological model was used to project flowering dates of Japanese cherry in South Korea from 1941 to 2100. The model consists of two sequential periods: the rest period described by chilling requirement and the forcing period described by heating requirement. Daily maximum and minimum temperature are used to calculate daily chill units until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, daily heat units (growing degree days) are accumulated until a pre-determined heating requirement for flowering is achieved. Model calculations using daily temperature data at 18 synoptic stations during 1955-2004 were compared with the observed blooming dates and resulted in 3.9 days mean absolute error, 5.1 days root mean squared error, and a correlation coefficient of 0.86. Considering that the phonology observation has never been fully standardized in Korea, this result seems reasonable. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270 m grid spacing were prepared for the climatological years 1941-1970 and 1971-2000 from observations at 56 synoptic stations by using a spatial interpolation scheme for correcting urban heat island effect as well as elevation effect. A 25km-resolution temperature data set covering the Korean Peninsula, prepared by the Meteorological Research Institute of Korea Meteorological Administration under the condition of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2, was converted to 270 m gridded data for the climatological years 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The model was run by the gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets, each representing a climatological normal year for 1941-1970, 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. According to the model calculation, the spatially averaged flowering date for the 1971-2000 normal is shorter than that for 1941-1970 by 5.2 days. Compared with the current normal (1971-2000), flowering of Japanese cherry is expected to be earlier by 9, 21, and 29 days in the future normal years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, respectively. Southern coastal areas might experience springs with incomplete or even no Japanese cherry flowering caused by insufficient chilling for breaking bud dormancy.

네트워크 분석방식 선택에 따른 복잡계 모형과 공간구문론의 상호검증 (Mutual Verification of an Analytic Model of a Complex System and Space Syntax Using Network Analyses)

  • 김석태;윤소희
    • 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2017
  • A social phenomenon that occurs in a physical space is said to be a complex system. However, space syntax, which is commonly employed by researchers to identify such social phenomena, has various limitations in interpreting their complexity. On the other hand, agent-based modeling considers a variety of factors including the personality of the agent, objective-oriented work flows, estimation according to time flows and better prediction of space use through diverse parameters depending the situation, as well as the characteristics of the space. The agent-based method thus has the potentials to be developed as an alternative to space syntax techniques. In particular, discrete event driven simulation(DEVS), which is part of the agent-based modeling method, embraces the concept of networks just like space syntax, which allows a possible theoretical linkage in the future. This study suggests a procedural model of agent-based DEVS reflecting two different connection methods, i.e. connections between adjacent areas and those of the entire space, and attempts to identify the relationship between the local and regional indices of space syntax. A number of spaces were selected as examples-one for a preliminary experiment and eight modified for the main experiment-and space syntax and DEVS were applied to each of them. The comparative analysis of the results led to the conclusions as follows: 1) Adjacent connections were closely related to local indices, while the whole-space approach to regional indices. Local integration shows both characteristics. 2) Observation of the time flow model indicated a faster convergence with the range of 1 to 3-fold of the total time of one lap, with the error of less than 10%. 3) The heat map analysis showed more obvious characteristics of using the space for the entire space rather than adjacent connections. 4) Space syntax shows higher eligibility than ABM.

SG-RBAC : 스마트그리드 환경에 적합한 역할기반접근제어 모델 (SG-RBAC : Role Based Access Control Model for Smart Grid Environment)

  • 이우묘;이건희;김신규;서정택
    • 정보보호학회논문지
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.307-318
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    • 2013
  • 스마트그리드는 다양한 도메인의 다양한 기기가 상호 운용되고 상황에 따라 다른 접근권한을 가질 수 있다. 따라서 스마트그리드 기기 및 시스템 내부에 접근 가능한 권한들을 효율적으로 관리하여, 접근권한 관련 설정 오류를 최소화하고 권한이 없는 사용자의 접근을 차단하기 위한 '스마트그리드 환경에 적합한 접근제어 기술'이 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 스마트그리드 환경을 분석하여 접근제어 시 요구사항들을 정리하고 이를 만족하는 SG-RBAC 모델을 제안하였다. SG-RBAC 모델은 사용자 특성, 역할 특성, 시스템 특성에 따라 권한 활성화 제약이 가능하며, 권한위임과 권한상속 시에 시간, 위치정보, 위기 상황 발생여부에 따라 제약을 가할 수 있다.

Measuring and Modeling the Spectral Attenuation of Light in the Yellow Sea

  • Gallegos, Sonia-C.;Sandidge, Juanita;Chen, Xiaogang;Hahn, Sangbok-D.;Ahn, Yu-Hwan;Iturriaga, Rodolfo;Jeong, Hee-Dong;Suh, Young-Sang;Cho, Sung-Hwam
    • Journal of the korean society of oceanography
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.46-56
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    • 2004
  • Spectral attenuation of light and upwelling radiance were measured in the western coast of Korea on board the R/V Inchon 888 of the Korean National Fisheries Research and Development Institute(NFRDI) during four seasons. The goal of these efforts was to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of the inherent and apparent optical properties of the water, and the factors that control their distribution. Our data indicate that while stratification of the water column, phytoplankton, and wind stress determined the vertical distribution of the optical parameters offshore, it was the tidal current and sediment type that controlled both the vertical and horizontal distribution in the coastal areas. These findings led to the development of a model that estimates the spectral attenuation of light with respect to depth and time for the Yellow Sea. The model integrates water leaving radiance from satellites, sediment types, current vectors, sigma-t, bathymetry, and in situ optical measurements in a learning algorithm capable of extracting optical properties with only knowledge of the environmental conditions of the Yellow Sea. The performance of the model decreases with increase in depth. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 2% for the upper five meters, 8-10% between 6 and 50 meters, and 15% below 51 meters.

중규모 수치 모델 자료를 이용한 2007년 여름철 한반도 인지온도 예보와 검증 (Forecast and verification of perceived temperature using a mesoscale model over the Korean Peninsula during 2007 summer)

  • 변재영;김지영;최병철;최영진
    • 대기
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2008
  • A thermal index which considers metabolic heat generation of human body is proposed for operational forecasting. The new thermal index, Perceived Temperature (PT), is forecasted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model and validated. Forecasted PT shows the characteristics of diurnal variation and topographic and latitudinal effect. Statistical skill scores such as correlation, bias, and RMSE are employed for objective verification of PT and input meteorological variables which are used for calculating PT. Verification result indicates that the accuracy of air temperature and wind forecast is higher in the initial forecast time, while relative humidity is improved as the forecast time increases. The forecasted PT during 2007 summer is lower than PT calculated by observation data. The predicted PT has a minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of $7-8^{\circ}C$ at 9-18 hour forecast. Spatial distribution of PT shows that it is overestimated in western region, while PT in middle-eastern region is underestimated due to strong wind and low temperature forecast. Underestimation of wind speed and overestimation of relative humidity have caused higher PT than observation in southern region. The predicted PT from the mesoscale model gives appropriate information as a thermal index forecast. This study suggests that forecasted PT is applicable to the prediction of health warning based on the relationship between PT and mortality.

CCHE2D모형을 이용한 급만곡부의 흐름특성 분석 (Investigation of Flow Characteristics of Sharply Curved Channels by Using CCHE2D Model)

  • 김연수;장창래;이기하;정관수
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제10권5호
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2010
  • 일반적으로 사행하천의 만곡부에서는 홍수시 월류의 위험성이 높을 뿐만 아니라, 국부적으로 집중되는 흐름분포는 제방의 안정성을 위협한다. 따라서 본 연구는 두 개의 다른 실험수로에 대한 CCHE2D모형의 적용성 검토와 급변만곡의 형태를 갖는 자연하천의 흐름특성분석을 수행하는데 그 목적이 있다. 모의결과 실험에 대한 수위의 백분율 오차는 4.9%이내였으며, 실측치와 근사한 유속분포를 보였다. 실험수로를 통하여 보정된 모형을 이용하여 용담댐 하류 대유리에 위치한 만곡부를 대상으로 흐름특성 분석을 수행하였다. 모의결과는 만곡부의 지형에 의한 영향을 고려하지 못하는 HEC-RAS모형에 비하여 상류부에서 수위가 1.5 m 정도 높게 나타났다. 그러나 모의결과를 기존의 경험식과 비교한 결과 CCHE2D모형이 편수위 모의에 적합함을 알 수 있었으며, 자연하천의 홍수위와 유속산정에도 적합함을 확인할 수 있었다.

토지피복도 정확도에 따른 SWAT 예측 오류 평가 (Evaluation of SWAT Prediction Error according to Accuracy of Land Cover Map)

  • 허성구;김기성;김남원;안재훈;박상헌;유동선;최중대;임경재
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제24권6호
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    • pp.690-700
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    • 2008
  • The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model users tend to use the readily available input dataset, such as the Ministry of Environment (MOE) land cover data ignoring temporal and spatial changes in land cover. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with this land cover data. The EI values were 0.79 and 0.85 for streamflow calibration and validation, respectively. The EI were 0.79 and 0.86 for sediment calibration and validation, respectively. With newly prepared landcover dataset for the Doam-dam watershed, the SWAT model better predicts hydrologic and sediment behaviors. The number of HRUs with new land cover data increased by 70.2% compared with that with the MOE land cover, indicating better representation of small-sized agricultural field boundaries. The SWAT estimated annual average sediment yield with the MOE land cover data was 61.8 ton/ha/year for the Doam-dam watershed, while 36.2 ton/ha/year (70.7% difference) of annual sediment yield with new land cover data. Especially the most significant difference in estimated sediment yield was 548.0% for the subwatershed #2. Therefore it is recommended that one needs to carefully validate land cover for the study watershed for accurate hydrologic and sediment simulation with the SWAT model.

한반도 기후변화시그널 탐지 및 예측 (Detection and Forecast of Climate Change Signal over the Korean Peninsula)

  • 손건태;이은혜;이정형
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.705-716
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구는 한반도 지역의 지상기온에서 나타나는 기후변화시그널의 탐지와 예측을 목적으로 하고 있으며, 일본기상청 전지구 수치모델(MRI/JMA CGCM) 모의실험자료인 통제실험자료(대기 중 $CO_2$ 농도 변화가 없다는 가정 아래 실험된 자료)와 시나리오실험자료($CO_2$ 농도가 4배까지 연 1%씩 증가하는 가정 아래 실험된 자료)를 사용하였다. 수치모델 자료기간은 142년 자료이며, 관측치로 사용되는 ECMWF 재분석자료는 43년 자료이다. 모든 자료는 42개 격자점으로 이루어진 동일한 공간구조로 구성되었다. 베이지안 지문법과 자기회귀과정인 회귀모형(AUTOREG 모형)을 각각 적용하여 격자점별로 탐지 작업을 수행하였다. 탐지 결과가 유의한 격자점에 대하여 2100년까지 예측 작업을 수행하였다.