• Title/Summary/Keyword: Spatial error model

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Speed Prediction of Urban Freeway Using LSTM and CNN-LSTM Neural Network (LSTM 및 CNN-LSTM 신경망을 활용한 도시부 간선도로 속도 예측)

  • Park, Boogi;Bae, Sang hoon;Jung, Bokyung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.86-99
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    • 2021
  • One of the methods to alleviate traffic congestion is to increase the efficiency of the roads by providing traffic condition information on road user and distributing the traffic. For this, reliability must be guaranteed, and quantitative real-time traffic speed prediction is essential. In this study, and based on analysis of traffic speed related to traffic conditions, historical data correlated with traffic flow were used as input. We developed an LSTM model that predicts speed in response to normal traffic conditions, along with a CNN-LSTM model that predicts speed in response to incidents. Through these models, we try to predict traffic speeds during the hour in five-minute intervals. As a result, predictions had an average error rate of 7.43km/h for normal traffic flows, and an error rate of 7.66km/h for traffic incident flows when there was an incident.

Study on the Selection and Application of a Spatial Analysis Model Appropriate for Selecting the Radon Priority Management Target Area (라돈 우선관리 대상 지역 선정에 적합한 공간분석모형의 선정 및 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Nam Goung, Sun Ju;Choi, Kil Yong;Hong, Hyung Jin;Yoon, Dan Ki;Kim, Yoon Shin;Park, Si Hyun;Kim, Yoon Kwan;Lee, Cheol Min
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.82-96
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    • 2019
  • Objective: The aims of this study were to provide the basic data for establishing a precautionary management policy and to develop a methodology for selecting a radon management priority target area suitable for the Korean domestic environment. Methods: A suitable mapping method for the domestic environment was derived by conducting a quantitative comparison of predicted values and measured values that were calculated through implementation of two models such as IDW and RBF methods. And a qualitative comparison including the clarity of information transmission of the written radon map was carried out. Results: The predicted and measured values were obtained through the implementation of the spatial analysis models. The IDW method showed the lowest in the calculated mean square error and had a higher correlation coefficient than the other methods. As results of comparing the uncertainty using the jackknife concept and the concept of error distance for comparison of the differences according to the model interpolation method, the sum of the error distances showed a modest increase compared with the RBF method. As a result of qualitatively comparing the information transfer clarity between the radon maps prepared with the predicted values through the model implementation, it was found that the maps plotted using the predicted values by the implementation of the IDW method had greater clarity in terms of highness and lowness of radon concentration per area compared with the maps plotted by other methods. Conclusions: The radon management priority area suggests selecting a metropolitan city including an area with a high radon concentration.

Optimizing Clustering and Predictive Modelling for 3-D Road Network Analysis Using Explainable AI

  • Rotsnarani Sethy;Soumya Ranjan Mahanta;Mrutyunjaya Panda
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.24 no.9
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    • pp.30-40
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    • 2024
  • Building an accurate 3-D spatial road network model has become an active area of research now-a-days that profess to be a new paradigm in developing Smart roads and intelligent transportation system (ITS) which will help the public and private road impresario for better road mobility and eco-routing so that better road traffic, less carbon emission and road safety may be ensured. Dealing with such a large scale 3-D road network data poses challenges in getting accurate elevation information of a road network to better estimate the CO2 emission and accurate routing for the vehicles in Internet of Vehicle (IoV) scenario. Clustering and regression techniques are found suitable in discovering the missing elevation information in 3-D spatial road network dataset for some points in the road network which is envisaged of helping the public a better eco-routing experience. Further, recently Explainable Artificial Intelligence (xAI) draws attention of the researchers to better interprete, transparent and comprehensible, thus enabling to design efficient choice based models choices depending upon users requirements. The 3-D road network dataset, comprising of spatial attributes (longitude, latitude, altitude) of North Jutland, Denmark, collected from publicly available UCI repositories is preprocessed through feature engineering and scaling to ensure optimal accuracy for clustering and regression tasks. K-Means clustering and regression using Support Vector Machine (SVM) with radial basis function (RBF) kernel are employed for 3-D road network analysis. Silhouette scores and number of clusters are chosen for measuring cluster quality whereas error metric such as MAE ( Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) are considered for evaluating the regression method. To have better interpretability of the Clustering and regression models, SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), a powerful xAI technique is employed in this research. From extensive experiments , it is observed that SHAP analysis validated the importance of latitude and altitude in predicting longitude, particularly in the four-cluster setup, providing critical insights into model behavior and feature contributions SHAP analysis validated the importance of latitude and altitude in predicting longitude, particularly in the four-cluster setup, providing critical insights into model behavior and feature contributions with an accuracy of 97.22% and strong performance metrics across all classes having MAE of 0.0346, and MSE of 0.0018. On the other hand, the ten-cluster setup, while faster in SHAP analysis, presented challenges in interpretability due to increased clustering complexity. Hence, K-Means clustering with K=4 and SVM hybrid models demonstrated superior performance and interpretability, highlighting the importance of careful cluster selection to balance model complexity and predictive accuracy.

A Reliability Study on Estimating Shear Strength of Marine Soil using CPT (Cone 관입시험을 이용한 해양토질의 전단강도 산정에 대한 신뢰도 연구)

  • 이인모;이명재
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 1987
  • Reliability of the cone penetration test (CPT) for estimating shear strength of marine soils is investigated in this paper. For sands, the uncertainty about the angle of internal friction is analyzed. It includes the spatial variation of the soil and the model error in the equation used for interpretation. The most serious uncertainty encountered was the error in the interpretative models. Different methods of interpretation gave quite different values. Subjective opinion was introduced to combine all the interpretative models in a systematic manner. For clays, the undrained Shear Strength from the CPT results is usually =derived by empirical correlations between cone resistance and untrained shear strength from laboratory tests or field vane tests, expressed in terms of cone factor and function of overburden pressure. The uncertainty of the undrained shear strength is caused by data scatter of the cone factor in the correlation, model error of the cone factor, effect of anisotropy, and spatial variability of cone resistance. Among these uncertainties, the most serious one was the data scatter of the cone factor in the .correlation. Between the laboratory test and the field vane test used for correlation, the field vane test was more reliable.

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Assessment of Frequency Analysis using Daily Rainfall Data of HadGEM3-RA Climate Model (HadGEM3-RA 기후모델 일강우자료를 이용한 빈도해석 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Sunghun;Kim, Hanbeen;Jung, Younghun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we performed At-site Frequency Analysis(AFA) and Regional Frequency Analysis(RFA) using the observed and climate change scenario data, and the relative root mean squared error(RMMSE) was compared and analyzed for both approaches through Monte Carlo simulation. To evaluate the rainfall quantile, the daily rainfall data were extracted for 615 points in Korea from HadGEM3-RA(12.5km) climate model data, one of the RCM(Regional Climate Model) data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). Quantile mapping(QM) and inverse distance squared methods(IDSM) were applied for bias correction and spatial disaggregation. As a result, it is shown that the RFA estimates more accurate rainfall quantile than AFA, and it is expected that the RFA could be reasonable when estimating the rainfall quantile based on climate change scenarios.

Spatial Estimation of the Site Index for Pinus densiplora using Kriging (크리깅을 이용한 소나무림 지위지수 공간분포 추정)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Min;Park, Key-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.102 no.4
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    • pp.467-476
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    • 2013
  • Site index information given from forest site map only exist in the sampled locations. In this study, site index for unsampled locations were estimated using kriging interpolation method which can interpolate values between point samples to generate a continuous surface. Site index of Pinus densiplora in Danyang area were calculated using Chapman-Richards model by plot unit. Then site index for unsampled locations were interpolated by theoretical variogram models and ordinary kriging. Also in order to assess parameter selection, cross-validation was performed by calculating mean error (ME), average standard error (ASE) and root mean square error (RMSE). In result, gaussian model was excluded because of the biggest relative nugget (37.40%). Then spherical model (16.80%) and exponential model (8.77%) were selected. Site index estimates of Pinus densiplora throughout the entire area in Danyang showed 4.39~19.53 based on exponential model, and 4.54~19.23 based on spherical model. By cross-validation, RMSE had almost no difference. But ME and ASE from spherical model were slightly lower than exponential model. Therefore site index prediction map from spherical model were finally selected. Average site index from site prediction map was 10.78. It can be expected that regional variance can be considered by site index prediction map in order to estimate forest biomass which has big spatial variance and eventually it is helpful to improve an accuracy of forest carbon estimation.

Extending Ionospheric Correction Coverage Area by using Extrapolation Methods (외삽기법을 이용한 전리층 보정정보 영역 확장)

  • Kim, Jeongrae;Kim, Mingyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.74-81
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    • 2014
  • The coverage area of GNSS regional ionospheric correction model is mainly determined by the disribution of GNSS ground monitoring stations. Outside the coverage area, GNSS users may receive ionospheric correction signals but the correction does not contain valid correction information. Extrapolation of the correction information can extend the coverage area to some extent. Three interpolation methods, Kriging, biharmonic spline and cubic spline, are tested to evaluate the extrapolation accuracy of the ionospheric delay corrections outside the correction coverage area. IGS (International GNSS Service) ionosphere map data is used to simulate the corrections and to compute the extrapolation error statistics. Among the three methods, biharmonic method yields the best accuracy. The estimation error has a high value during Spring and Fall. The error has a high value in South and East sides and has a low value in North side.

Resampling for Roughness Coefficient of Surface Runoff Model Using Mosaic Scheme (모자이크기법을 이용한 지표유출모형의 조도계수 리샘플링)

  • Park, Sang-Sik;Kang, Boo-Sik
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2011
  • Physically-based resampling scheme for roughness coefficient of surface runoff considering the spatial landuse distribution was suggested for the purpose of effective operational application of recent grid-based distributed rainfall runoff model. Generally grid scale(mother scale) of hydrologic modeling can be greater than the scale (child scale) of original GIS thematic digital map when the objective basin is wide or topographically simple, so the modeler uses large grid scale. The resampled roughness coefficient was estimated and compared using 3 different schemes of Predominant, Composite and Mosaic approaches and total runoff volume and peak streamflow were computed through distributed rainfall-runoff model. For quantitative assessment of biases between computational simulation and observation, runoff responses for the roughness estimated using the 3 different schemes were evaluated using MAPE(Mean Areal Percentage Error), RMSE(Root-Mean Squared Error), and COE(Coefficient of Efficiency). As a result, in the case of 500m scale Mosaic resampling for the natural and urban basin, the distribution of surface runoff roughness coefficient shows biggest difference from that of original scale but surface runoff simulation shows smallest, especially in peakflow rather than total runoff volume.

The Effects of a Circle-based Early Childhood Science Education Program Using Physical Movement on Young Children's Scientific Inquiry Ability, Scientific Attitude, Object Manipulation Ability and Spatial Ability (신체움직임을 활용한 순환학습기반 유아과학교육 프로그램이 유아의 과학적 탐구능력, 과학적 태도, 물체조작능력 및 공간능력에 미치는 효과)

  • Chung, Gibun;Kim, Jihyun
    • Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.139-167
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    • 2019
  • Objective: This study aims to investigate the effects of a learning cycle model-based early childhood education program using physical motion on young children's scientific inquiry ability, scientific attitude, object manipulation ability and spatial ability. Methods: The subjects of this study were 60 five-year-old children who were attending K-G City Childcare Center. The SPSS Window 21.0 program and content analysis method were used, and post-validation Tukey was conducted to examine the differences between the one-way ANOVA and the group. Results: Activities using body movement were practiced systematically based on the circle learning. Children could revise their pre-concept and concept of error by interacting with other children, teachers and the environment. Furthermore, children were attaining new knowledge while they were doing body movement activities, assessing and applying them to actual activities. Conclusion/Implications: This study is investigated a cyclic learning-based early childhood science education program using physical motion, which has significance in systematic and practical early childhood centered education for young children.

Analysis of Hierarchical Competition Structure and Pricing Strategy in the Hotel Industry

  • BAEK, Unji;SIM, Youngseok;LEE, Seul-Ki
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.179-187
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to investigate the effects of market commonality and resource similarity on price competition and the recursive consequences in the Korean lodging market. Price comparison among hotels in the same geographic market has been facilitated through the development of information technology, rendering little search cost of consumers. While the literature implies the heterogeneous price attack and response among hotels, a limited number of empirical researches focus on the asymmetric and recursive pattern in the competitive dynamics. This study empirically examines the price interactions in the Korean lodging market based on the theoretical framework of competitive price interactions and countervailing power. Demonstrating superiority to the spatial lag model and the ordinary least squares in the estimation, the results from spatial error model suggest that the hotels with longer operational history pose an asymmetric impact on the price of the newer hotels. The asymmetry is also found in chain hotels over the independent, further implying the possibility of predatory pricing. The findings of this study provide the evidence of a hierarchical structure in the price competition, with different countervailing power by the resources of the hotels. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed, with suggestions for future study.