• Title/Summary/Keyword: Source term estimation

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Estimation of In-plant Source Term Release Behaviors from Fukushima Daiichi Reactor Cores by Forward Method and Comparison with Reverse Method

  • Kim, Tae-Woon;Rhee, Bo-Wook;Song, Jin-Ho;Kim, Sung-Il;Ha, Kwang-Soon
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.114-129
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    • 2017
  • Background: The purpose of this paper is to confirm the event timings and the magnitude of fission product aerosol release from the Fukushima accident. Over a few hundreds of technical papers have been published on the environmental impact of Fukushima Daiichi accident since the accident occurred on March 11, 2011. However, most of the research used reverse or inverse method based on the monitoring of activities in the remote places and only few papers attempted to estimate the release of fission products from individual reactor core or from individual spent fuel pool. Severe accident analysis code can be used to estimate the radioactive release from which reactor core and from which radionuclide the peaks in monitoring points can be generated. Materials and Methods: The basic material used for this study are the initial core inventory obtained from the report JAEA-Data/Code 2012-018 and the given accident scenarios provided by Japanese Government or Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) in official reports. In this research a forward method using severe accident progression code is used as it might be useful for justifying the results of reverse or inverse method or vice versa. Results and Discussion: The release timing and amounts to the environment are estimated for volatile radioactive fission products such as noble gases, cesium, iodine, and tellurium up to 184 hours (about 7.7 days) after earthquake occurs. The in-plant fission product behaviors and release characteristics to environment are estimated using the severe accident progression analysis code, MELCOR, for Fukushima Daiichi accident. These results are compared with other research results which are summarized in UNSCEAR 2013 Report and other technical papers. Also it may provide the physically based arguments for justifying or suspecting the rationale for the scenarios provided in open literature. Conclusion: The estimated results by MELCOR code simulation of this study indicate that the release amount of volatile fission products to environment from Units 1, 2, and 3 cores is well within the range estimated by the reverse or inverse method, which are summarized in UNSCEAR 2013 report. But this does not necessarily mean that these two approaches are consistent.

Estimation of Pollutants Loading from Non-Point Sources Based on Rainfall Event and Land use Characteristics (강우강도와 토지이용을 고려한 비점오염물질 부하량 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hye-Won;Choi, Nam-Hee;Lee, Yong-Seok;Choi, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.33 no.8
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    • pp.572-577
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    • 2011
  • The unit load has simply been used to estimate total pollutant loading from non-point sources, however, it does not count on the variable pollutant loading according to land use characteristics and rainfall intensity. Since pollutant emission from the watershed is strongly dependent on the rainfall intensity, it is necessary to find out the relationship between pollutant loading and rainfall intensity. The objective of this study is to develop simple and easy method to compute non-point source pollution loads with consideration of rainfall intensity. Two non-point source removal facility at Gyeongan-dong (Gwangju-si) and Mohyeon-myeon (Yongin-si), Gyeonggi-do was selected to monitor total rainfall, rainfall intensity, runoff characteristics and water quality from June to November, 2010. Most of Event Mean Concentrations (EMC) of measured water quality data were higher in Gyeongan which has urban land use than in Mohyeon which has rural land use. For the case of TP (Total Phosphorus), Mohyeon has higher values by the influence of larger chemical uses such as fertilizer. The relationship between non-point source pollution load and rainfall intensity is perfectly well explained by cubic regression with 0.33~0.81 coefficients of determination($R^2$). It is expected that the pollution loading function based on the long-term monitoring would be very useful with good accuracy in computing non-point source pollution load, where a rainfall intensity is highly variable.

Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

  • Kim, Sun-Young;Yi, Seon-Ju;Eum, Young Seob;Choi, Hae-Jin;Shin, Hyesop;Ryou, Hyoung Gon;Kim, Ho
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.29
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    • pp.12.1-12.8
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    • 2014
  • Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to $10{\mu}m$ in diameter ($PM_{10}$) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly $PM_{10}$ data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared ($R^2$) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and $66.0{\mu}g/m^3$ (standard deviation=2.40 and $9.51{\mu}g/m^3$, respectively). Cross-validated $R^2$ values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had $R^2$ values of zero. The national model produced a higher cross-validated $R^2$ (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate $PM_{10}$ source characteristics.

Study on the Electromagnetic Excitation System for the Measurement of Dynamic Coefficients of Air Foil Bearing for High Speed Rotor (초고속 회전체용 공기 포일 베어링의 동특성 계수 측정을 위한 전자석 가진장치에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Cheol-Hoon;Choi, Sang-Kyu;Ham, Sang-Yong
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.18-25
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    • 2013
  • Recently the requirement of long-term mobile energy source for mobile robot or small-sized unmanned vehicle is highly increased, and the micro turbine generator(MTG) which is known to have high energy and power density is under development. MTG is designed to have air foil bearing and high speed rotor of which operating speed is 400,000rpm. In the development stage of high speed rotor and bearing, stability analysis for the full operational speed range is essential and the dynamic coefficients such as stiffness and damping coefficients of bearing depending on the rotational speed are required for that. Although perturbation method is usually used to identify the dynamic coefficients, it's not easy to give the perturbation to the high speed rotating rotor. In this study, we present the dynamic coefficients measurement system for air foil bearing which consists of electromagnets, gap sensors, high speed motor and controller. This measurement system can exert the sine sweep force to the rotor-bearing, measure the displacement of rotor and get FRF(Frequency response function) of rotor-bearing. The least square estimation method is applied to identify the dynamic coefficients of bearing from the measured frequency response at the different rpm and the identified dynamic coefficients for the wide rotational speed range are presented.

Evaluation of Runoff and Pollutant Loads using L-THIA 2012 Runoff and Pollutant Auto-calibration Module and Ranking of Pollutant Loads Potential (L-THIA 2012 유출 및 수질 자동 보정 모듈을 이용한 유출/비점부하량 산정 및 비점오염 부하량 포텐셜 등급화)

  • Jang, Chunhwa;Kum, Donghyuk;Ha, Junsoo;Kim, Kyoung-Soon;Kang, Dong Han;Kim, Keuk-Tai;Shin, Dong Suk;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.184-195
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    • 2013
  • Urbanization from agricultural/forest areas has been causing increased runoff and pollutant loads from it. Thus, numerous models have been developed to estimate NPS loading from urban area and Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Analysis (L-THIA) model has been used to evaluate effects of landuse changes on runoff and pollutant loads. However, the L-THIA model could not consider rainfall intensity in runoff evaluation. Therefore, the L-THIA model, capable of simulating runoff using 10-minute rainfall data, was applied to the study areas for evaluation of estimated runoff and NPS. The estimated Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) values were over 0.6 for runoff, BOD, TN, and TP for most sites and watershed. The calibrated model was further extended to other counties for pollutant load potential evaluation. Pollutant load potential maps were developed and target areas were identified. As shown in this study, the L-THIA 2012 can be used for evaluation runoff and pollutant loads with limited data sets and its estimation could be used in identifying pollutant load hot spot areas for implementation of site-specific Best Management Practices.

Human Postural Dynamics in Response to the Horizontal Vibration

  • Shin Young-Kyun;Fard Mohammad A.;Inooka Hikaru;Kim Il-Hwan
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.325-332
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    • 2006
  • The dynamic responses of human standing postural control were investigated when subjects were exposed to long-term horizontal vibration. It was hypothesized that the motion of standing posture complexity mainly occurs in the mid-sagittal plane. The motor-driven support platform was designed as a source of vibration. The AC Servo-controlled motors produced anterior/posterior (AP) motion. The platform acceleration and the trunk angular velocity were used as the input and the output of the system, respectively. A method was proposed to identify the complexity of the standing posture dynamics. That is, during AP platform motion, the subject's knee, hip and neck were tightly constrained by fixing assembly, so the lower extremity, trunk and head of the subject's body were individually immovable. Through this method, it was assumed that the ankle joint rotation mainly contributed to maintaining their body balance. Four subjects took part in this study. During the experiment, the random vibration was generated at a magnitude of $0.44m/s^2$, and the duration of each trial was 40 seconds. Measured data were estimated by the coherence function and the frequency response function for analyzing the dynamic behavior of standing control over a frequency range from 0.2 to 3 Hz. Significant coherence values were found above 0.5 Hz. The estimation of frequency response function revealed the dominant resonance frequencies between 0.60 Hz and 0.68 Hz. On the basis of our results illustrated here, the linear model of standing postural control was further concluded.

Spatial Distribution and Variation of Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants Flux during 1997~2004 (장거리이동 대기오염물질 이동량의 공간적 분포와 변화 추이(1997~2004))

  • Han J. S.;Kim Y. M.;Ahn J. Y.;Kong B. J.;Choi J. S.;Lee S. U.;Lee S. J.
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2006
  • Aircraft measurements have been executed for the purpose of monitoring the long range transported air pollution and estimation of air pollutant in/out-flux over the Yellow sea. Total 74 missions of measurements have been done since 1997, mainly in spring and fall. The main study domain was over $124^{\circ}$E $/sim$ $124^{\circ}$E, $35^{\circ}$N $/sim$ $37^{\circ}$N below 3,000m. In long-term trends, mixing ratios of $SO_{2}$N were around 2 ppbv expect in summer ( < 1 ppbv). NOx exhibited 24 ppbv and have no clear annual trends over the Yellow Sea. The concentrations of 03 were 51, 58, 41 ppbv in spring, summer and fall-winter, respectively. Backward trajectory was performed for three days to investigate the source regions of the air mass. Six regions were divided around Korea peninsular centering at $36^{\circ}$N, $126^{\circ}$E. I, II, III, IV and V regions represents in sequence northeast China and Siberia, Sandong peninsula and Balhae gulf, Sanghi and southern China, the south Pacific included Jeju island and the East sea included Japan. L region correspond to the airmass from Korea peninsula. Influx of $SO_{2}$N was approximately five times higher than outflux in yearly flux variation and showed a decreasing long-term trend since 1998. NOx outflux was average 0.095 ton/km/hr and three times higher than $SO_{2}$ outflux. In/out flux of 03 showed even distribution in yearly basis except 2002 (influx 5.45 ton/km/hr). The transported amounts from I, II, III regions were much higher than those from other region. In seasonal flux variation, influx levels of gas phases were the lowest in summer and the levels gradually increased from fall toward spring. As a result, transport of pollutants begins from fall and prevails in winter and spring.

Asset Prices and Consumption Dynamics in Korea (자산가격변동과 민간소비의 동태적 반응)

  • Kim, Young Il
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.35-73
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines consumption dynamics in relation to asset prices in Korea. Empirical analysis based on the error correction model shows that personal consumption is affected by changes in asset prices but the consumption converges to the long-run level of consumption corresponding to the total income flow in two years. This adjustment in consumption implies that the consumption error, reflected in the error correction term, should have predictability for the future consumption growth during the adjustment period. It is found that the error correction term has a long-run predictability for consumption over up to about 3 years; thus, confirming the error correction model. It is also found that housing prices have larger effects on consumption compared with stock prices in Korea. In addition, the effects of income and asset prices on consumption show bigger effects during contractionary period than expansionary period in business cycles. This paper also analyzes effects of asset wealth that reflects changes in both price and quantity. It is found that asset wealth has a long-run effect on consumption in addition to total income as determinants of consumption. Since wealth effects usually indicate the long-run effect of changes in asset wealth on consumption that is not explained by labor income, which is the proxy for human source of wealth, it is estimated with labor income used as a control variable. According to the estimation, the marginal propencity to consume out of asset wealth is approximately 2%. It means that 1,000won increase in asset wealth may lead to 20 won increase in consumption.

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Priority assessment and estimation of annual power generation for potential development site of hydroelectric dam in North Korea (북한지역 수력발전댐 개발가능지점에 대한 연간가능발생전력량 분석 및 개발 우선순위 평가)

  • Kwon, Minsung;Kim, Tae-Woong;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.929-939
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    • 2018
  • In North Korea, hydropower which occupies about 63% of power generation is a major electric power source, and North Korea has many advantages in the geographical for developing hydroelectric power. In this study, Information on the basin and dam capacity for 33 potential development site of hydroelectric dam was analyzed using DEM, and potential annual power generation was estimated by applying results of long-term runoff simulation with MWSWAT model for recent 30-year. The potential annual power generation at 33 dam was estimated to be about 28% of the current hydroelectric power in North Korea. In addition, a priority of dam development in each province was assessed by estimating the scale of an industry and prospecting the population change in the future. And a priority for dam development within the province was estimated based on the dam capacity and the potential annual power generation. The priority of each province was ranked in order of Pyeongannamdo, Hamgyungnamdo, Hamgyungbukdo, Hwanghaebukdo, Pyeonganbukdo, Jagangdo, Ryanggangdo, Hwanghaenamdo, and Gangwondo. The results of this study can be used as an initial review data for advancing to hydropower development project in North Korea.

Evaluation of Runoff Prediction from a Coniferous Forest Watersheds and Runoff Estimation under Various Cover Degree Scenarios using GeoWEPP Watershed Model (GeoWEPP을 이용한 침엽수림 지역 유출특성 예측 및 다양한 식생 피도에 따른 유출량 평가)

  • Choi, Jaewan;Shin, Min Hwan;Cheon, Se Uk;Shin, Dongseok;Lee, Sung Jun;Moon, Sun Jung;Ryu, Ji Cheol;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.425-432
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    • 2011
  • To control non-point source pollution at a watershed scale, rainfall-runoff characteristics from forest watersheds should be investigated since the forest is the dominant land use in Korea. Long-term monitoring would be an ideal method. However, computer models have been utilized due to limitations in cost and labor in performing long-term monitoring at the watersheds. In this study, the Geo-spatial interface to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP) model was evaluated for its runoff prediction from a coniferous forest dominant watersheds. The $R^2$ and the NSE for calibrated result comparisons were 0.77 and 0.63, validated result comparisons were 0.92, 0.89, respectively. These comparisons indicated that the GeoWEPP model can be used in evaluating rainfall-runoff characteristics. To estimate runoff changes from a coniferous forest watershed with various cover degree scenarios, ten cover degree scenarios (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%) were run using the calibrated GeoWEPP model. It was found that runoff increases with decrease in cover degree. Runoff volume was the highest ($206,218.66m^3$) at 10% cover degree, whereas the lowest ($134,074.58m^3$) at 100% cover degree due to changes in evapotranspiration under various cover degrees at the forest. As shown in this study, GeoWEPP model could be efficiently used to investigate runoff characteristics from the coniferous forest watershed and effects of various cover degree scenarios on runoff generation.