• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.99-106
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• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.446-455
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• 2014

This study revealed the results related to the functionality of outdoor wear required when man and women in their 30s to 50s engage in outdoor activities. Based on the results of the survey, we proposed composition draft for a smart outdoor jacket with main functions of GPS device and light-emitting device using solar cell and EL. Absorption and release of sweat, functionality regarding rain and wind, and lightweightness, etc. from material functionalities of outdoor wear were found to be important. From function required in clothing for outdoor activity, location tracking, night glow, and lighting functions were found to be most important. For results investigating the necessity of the jacket's location tracking function and lighting function using solar cell, high scores of 3.9~4.0 were given. Purchase intentions for smart outdoor jacket with location tracking and lighting functions devised by this study were fairly positive and most responses indicated that the appropriate purchase price was between 200,000 to 300,000 won while possible problems of this smart outdoor jacket were listed in the order of washing inconvenience, high price, device weight, and discomfort in movement. The draft proposal to integrate with wearable devices for smart outdoor jacket prototype is as follows: Solar cell has been attached to the upper arm but placed inside a transparent pocket which has been detachable for washing convenience while the solar cell and controller have been integrated into a single unit. Using frequent movement exhibited by the arms, EL has been attached along the center line of the raglan sleeve for easy spotting when used as an emergency signal or for night lighting function during outdoor activity. GPS has been attached on the left sleeve so that the person can bend the left arm inward and operate the GPS screen with the right hand while walking or running outdoors.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.335-346
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• 2008

Using the global total electron contents (TEC) measured by the TOPEX satellite from Aug. 1992 to Oct. 2005, we investigate the variations of the longitudinal wavenumber-4 (LW-4) structure in the equatorial anomaly (EA) crests with season, local time, and solar activity. Our study shows that the LW-4 structure in the EA crests ($5{\sim}20^{\circ}$ MLAT in both hemispheres) has clear four peaks at fixed longitude sectors during the daytime for both equinoxes and June solstice. In spite of being called a wavelike structure, however, the magnitudes and spatial intervals of the four peaks are far from being the same or regular. After sunset, the four-peak structure begins to move eastward with gradual weakening in its amplitude during equinoxes and this weakening proceeds much faster during June solstice. Interestingly, the longitudinal variations during December solstice do not show clear four-peak structure. All these features of the LW-4 structure are almost the same for both low and high solar activity conditions although the ion densities are greatly enhanced from low to high solar activities. With the irrelevancy of the magnetic activity in the LW-4, this implies that the large changes of the upper atmospheric ion densities, one of the important factors for ion-neutral interactions, have little effect on the formation of the LW-4 structure. On the other hand, we found that the monthly variation of the LW-4 is remarkably similar to that of the zonal component of wavenumber-3 diurnal tides at low latitudes, which implies that the lower atmospheric tidal forcing, transferred to the upper atmosphere, seems to have a dominant role in producing the LW-4 structure in the EA crests via the E-region dynamo.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.89.2-89.2
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• 2013

Solar energetic transients, e.g., flares, CMEs, etc., release large amount of energy which is expected to excite acoustic waves (p-modes) by exerting mechanical impulse of the thermal expansion of the flare on the photosphere. We study the p-mode properties of flaring and dormant active regions (ARs) to find association between flare and p-mode parameters. We compute the magnetic and flare activity indices of ARs using the line-of-sight magnetograms and GOES X-ray fluxes, respectively. The p-mode parameters are computed from the ring-diagram analysis. We correct p-mode parameters for magnetic field, filling factors and foreshortening by multiple linear-regression analysis. Our analysis of several flaring and dormant ARs observed during the Carrington rotations 1980-2109, showed strong association of mode parameters with magnetic and flare activities. We find that the mode parameters are contaminated by the geometrical effect. Mode amplitude decreases with angular distance from the solar disc centre. The mode width increases with magnetic activity while amplitude showed opposite relation due to mode absorption by the sunspot. After correcting modes due to all geometrical effects, magnetic activity and filling factor, we find that the modes amplitude, and mode energy increases with flare energy while width shows opposite relation.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.67.1-67.1
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• 2014

Comets are mysterious travelers from outer Solar System. It is considered that comets loose their subsurface ice once they were injected into a snow-line of the solar system, at the same time, develop adiathermic dust layers on the surface in a time scale of ~10,000 years. They eventually become inactive (see also the presentation by Yoonyoung Kim et al.). Optical similarity between comets and asteroids in comet-like orbits suggests the existence of such dormant or inactive comets supporting the evolutionary scenario. However, unforeseen accidents cast a misgiving to modify the stereotype. A periodic comet, 17P/Holmes, is known as comet with very low activity before 2007. However, the comet suddenly exhibited an outburst in 2007 October, which is known as the most energetic cometary outburst since the beginning of modern astronomy. On the other hand, another periodic comet, P/2010 V1, was not known before 2010 November probably because of low activity and discovered while it experienced outburst. We investigated the time-evolution of the magnitudes and the morphological developments based on the dynamical theory of dust grains, and derived the energy per unit mass of ~10,000 J/kg. From these observational evidences, we suggest that crystallization of buried amorphous ice (even in low-activity comets) can be responsible for the dramatic cometary outbursts.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.395-404
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• 2008

We explore the linkage between the long term variability of the Sun and earth's climate change by analysing periodicities of time series of solar proxies and global temperature anomalies. We apply the power spectral estimation method named as the periodgram to solar proxies and global temperature anomalies. We also decompose global temperature anomalies and reconstructed total solar irradiance into each local variability components by applying the EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) and MODWT MRA (Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Multi Resolution Analysis). Powers for solar proxies at low frequencies are lower than those of high frequencies. On the other hand, powers for temperature anomalies show the other way. We fail to decompose components which having lager than 40 year variabilities from EMD, but both residuals are well decomposed respectively. We determine solar induced components from the time series of temperature anomalies and obtain 39% solar contribution on the recent global warming. We discuss the climate system can be approximated with the second order differential equation since the climate sensitivity can only determine the output amplitude of the signal.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2012.03a
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• pp.267-273
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• 2012

Solar reforming of methane with CO2 was successfully tested with a direct irradiated absorber on a parabolic dish capable of 5kWth solar power. And the new type of double-layer absorber-the front layer, porous metal foam which absorbs the radiation and transfers the heat from material to gas, and the back layer, catalytically-activated metal foam-was prepared, and its activity was tested by using electric furnace. Ni was applied as the active metal on the gamma-Al2O3 coated Ni metal foam for the preparation of the catalytically-activated metal foam layer. Compared to conventional direct irradiation of the catalytically activated metal foam absorber, this new type of double layer absorber is found to exhibit a superior reaction and thermal storage performance at the fluctuating incident solar radiation. In addition, unlike direct irradiation of the foam absorber, double layer absorber has better thermal resistance, which prevents the emergence of cracks caused by mechanical or thermal shock. The total solar power absorbed reached up to 3.25kW and the maximum CH4 conversion was almost 59%.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.11a
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• pp.80-86
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• 2011

Solar reforming of methane with CO2 was successfully tested with a direct irradiated absorber on a parabolic dish capable of 5kWth solar power. And the new type of double-layer absorber - the front layer, porous metal foam which absorbs the radiation and transfers the heat from material to gas, and the back layer, catalytically-activated metal foam - was prepared, and its activity was tested by using electric furnace. Ni was applied as the active metal on the gamma-Al2O3 coated Ni metal foam for the preparation of the catalytically-activated metal foam layer. Compared to conventional direct irradiation of the catalytically activated metal foam absorber, this new type of double layer absorber is found to exhibit a superior reaction and thermal storage performance at the fluctuating incident solar radiation. In addition, unlike direct irradiation of the foam absorber, double layer absorber has better thermal resistance, which prevents the emergence of cracks caused by mechanical or thermal shock. The total solar power absorbed reached up to 3.25kW and the maximum CH4 conversion was almost 59%.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.99-104
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• 2022

This study provided a prediction model for solar energy production in Yeongam province, Jeollanam-do. The model was derived from the correlation between climate changes and solar power production in Yeongam province, Jeollanam-do, and presented a prediction of solar power generation through the regression analysis of 6 parameters related to weather and solar power generation. The data used in this study were the weather and photovoltaic production data from January in 2016 to December in 2019 provided by public data. Based on the data, the machine learning technique was used to analyzed the correlation between weather change and solar energy production and derived to the prediction model. The model showed that the photovoltaic production can be categorized by the three-stage production index and will be used as an important barometer in the agriculture activity and the use of photovoltaic electricity.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.61-68
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• 2020

Recent studies have suggested that detectable ionospheric disturbances precede earthquakes. In the present study, variations in the vertical total electron content (TEC) for eight earthquakes with magnitudes of M ≥ 5.5 in the western United States were investigated during the solar maximum of 2013-2015 using United States total electron content (US-TEC) data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Analyses of 12 earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.0 ≤ M < 5.5 in the same region were also performed. The TEC variations were examined for 40 days, including the times when the earthquakes occurred. The results indicated a correlation between earthquakes with magnitudes of M ≥ 5.0 and ionospheric TEC anomalies. TEC anomalies occurred before 60% of the earthquakes. Additionally, they were more frequently observed for large earthquakes (75%, M ≥ 5.5) than for small earthquakes (50%, 5.5 > M ≥ 5.0). Anomalous increases in the TEC occurred 2-18 days before the earthquakes as an ionospheric precursor, whereas solar and geomagnetic activities were low or moderate.