• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.3B
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• pp.253-264
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• 2011

Drought assessment is usually performed qualitatively and/or quantitatively after defining a drought from meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic perspective. Most of the drought analyses focus on meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, whereas the socioeconomic drought evaluation has been not actively performed since it needs different aspects. In this study, after defining a socioeconomic drought applicable to assess droughts in Korea, we suggested Water Excess Deficiency Index (WEDI) as an useful tool to evaluate socioeconomic droughts, based on water demand condition and water supply condition. This study verified the validity of WEDI by comparing with other drought indices (SPI, PDSI) and historical drought condition in Gyeongsang-do in 2001. The results indicated that the WEDI can be used to assess regional droughts in a socioeconomic perspective.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.3B
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• pp.243-252
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• 2011

The change of rainfall pattern due to recent climate change increases the occurrence probability of drought in Korea. Unlike other natural disasters, a drought has long duration, extensive area subject to damage, and greater socioeconomic damage than other disasters. In order to evaluate drought severity, meteorological drought indices are mainly used in practice. This study presents a more realistic method to evaluate drought severity considering drought climate factors as well as socioeconomic factors which are vulnerable to disaster. To perform a spatial evaluation of drought risk in Gyeongsang-do, drought risk was defined and analyzed through the hazard index and the vulnerability index. The drought hazard index was spatially assessed using the drought index and GIS. The drought vulnerability index was also spatially assessed using the 5 socioeconomic factors. As a result, the drought risks were compared and used for evaluating regional drought risk considering regional characteristics of Gyeongsang-do.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.381-393
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• 2015

This study is carried out in order to propose a drought risk assessment methodology. This methodology is required to deal with practical questions that a variety of stakeholder often raise in the course of discussions on mitigation measures. With a focus on the socioeconomic aspect of drought, more particularly, residents' hardship from water scarcity, it suggests basic concepts and a system of methods in order to assess hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk. The case study shows a considerable possibility of the methodology in evaluating potential levels of damages in a certain area, in identifying the boundary of districts where risk is disproportionately concentrated, and also in understanding the underlying risk factors of those districts. The authors think that the proposed methodology is able to offer risk information in terms of socioeconomic damages, and therefore contribute to reducing information gaps that policy-makers are currently encountered with.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.397-397
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• 2019

With the consequences of climate change becoming more evident, research on climate-associated risks has become a basis for climate adaptation and mitigation. Amongst the different sectors and natural resources considered in assessing such risks, drought is one impact to our environment that experiences stress from climate change but is often overlooked and has the potential to bring severe consequences when drought occurs. For example, when temperatures are higher, water demand increases and water supply decreases; when precipitation patterns fluctuate immensely, floods and droughts occur more frequently at greater magnitudes, putting stress on ecosystems. Hence, it is important for us to evaluate drought risk to observe how different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios can affect this vital life resource. In this study, we review the context of drought risk on the basis of climate change impacts and socioeconomic indicators. As underlined in the IPCC AR5 report, the risks are identified by understanding the vulnerability, exposure, and hazards of drought. This study analyzed drought risk on a global scale with different RCP scenarios projected until the year 2099 with a focus on the variables population, precipitation, water resources, and temperature.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.441-449
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• 2019

Drought is a longer lasting and more extensive disaster than other natural disasters, resulting in significant socioeconomic damage. Even though drought events have same severity, their damage vary from region to region because of spatial, technical, economic, and social circumstances. In this study, drought vulnerability was assessed considering socioeconomic factors. Preliminary factors were identified from the case study for Chungcheong province, and evaluative factors were selected by applying the principal component analysis. The entropy method was applied to determine the weights of evaluative factors. As a result, in Chungcheong province, farm population, number of recipient of basic living, water fare gap indicator, area of industrial complex, amount of underground water usage, amount of water available per capita, water supply ratio, financial soundness for water resources, amount of domestic water usage, amount of agricultural water usage and agricultural land area were chosen as the evaluative factors. Among them, the factors associated with agriculture had larger weights. The overall assessment of vulnerability indicated that Cheongju, Dangjin and Seosan were the most vulnerable to drought.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.195-205
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• 2018

Drought is a complex phenomenon caused by various factors which can be classified into natural and anthropogenic causes. In Korea, the natural drought typically occurs when the high pressure of the Pacific Ocean develops rapidly or becomes stronger than usual in summer, resulting in a short-lived monsoon season. Drought also can be classified into meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought depending on the development process and consequences. Each type of droughts can influence the other drought types directly or indirectly. Drought propagation refers a phenomenon that changes from meteorological drought to agricultural or hydrological drought. In this study, the occurrence and patterns of drought propagation are evaluated. The relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts was assessed using hydrometeorological data. We classified the types of drought into five categories to evaluate the occurrence and characteristics of drought propagation. As results, we found drought propagation did not occur or delayed until three months, depending on the type of drought. The further generalized relationship of drought propagation is expected to be used for predicting agricultural drought from the preceding meteorological drought.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.45-58
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• 2024

Drought risk is expected to increase as the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts increase due to climate change. Drought risk is related to not only hydro-meteorological factors, but also water supply and demand. Recently, along with climate change, socioeconomic factors have also been recognized to increase drought risk. Therefore, it is necessary to outlook the drought risk considering various conditions for coping with future extreme droughts in a timely manner. In addition, considering various drought scenarios help reduce the uncertainty in future drought outlook. In this study, drought scenarios considering climate change scenarios, population, and water demand were created to outlook drought risk for 160 administrative districts in Korea, then new levels of drought risk were assigned based on the results of drought risk outlook to suggest drought management measures. The results showed that the drought risk will increase in the future in 2020, 2025, and 2030, compared to past. Especially the drought risk is likely twice as high in 2030 under the baseline and high scenarios. Applying the drought outlook results from this study to the new methodology for setting the risk levels shows that most regions are in Response (V) in 2020 and 2030 for baseline and high scenarios.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.305-305
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• 2022

A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.196-196
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• 2023

가뭄은 발생 시점과 종점을 정확히 파악하기 어려우며, 피해 면적이 광범위하기 때문에 수자원시스템 전반을 비롯한 사회, 경제적 측면에서 심각한 영향을 줄 수 있다. 우리나라의 가뭄 발생경향은 2000년 이후로 급증하고 있으며, 2022년 전라남도 지역의 경우, 평년 대비 강수량이 60%에 그쳐 50년 관측 사상에서 가장 낮은 수준으로 나타나면서 극심한 가뭄이 발생하여 현재까지도 지속되고 있다. 미래에도 기후변화로 인한 가뭄의 강도와 빈도가 증가될 것으로 예측됨에 따라 가뭄을 예방하기 위한 미래 가뭄 상황의 예측에 대한 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 따라서 다양한 기후모델 및 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 활용해 미래 가뭄에 대한 전망을 분석하고 적응 전략을 수립해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6)에서 제공하는 18개의 전 지구적 기후모델별로 산출한 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 시나리오를 기반으로 기상학적 가뭄지수인 표준강수지수 (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI), 유효가뭄지수(Effectvie Drought Index, EDI)와 강수량 및 기온의 변화에 따른 증발산량을 고려하여 가뭄을 판단하는 표준강수증발지수 (Standardized Precipitation Evaportranspiration Index, SPEI), 증발수요 가뭄지수 (Evaporative Demand Drought Index, EDDI)를 적용하여 미래 가뭄지수별 가뭄 예측 및 변동성을 분석하였다.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.62 no.2
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• pp.97-109
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• 2020

Drought is one of the most influential disasters in sustainable agriculture and food security of nations. In order to preemptively respond to agricultural droughts, vulnerability assessments were conducted to predict the possibility of drought in the region, the degree of direct or indirect damage, and the ability to cope with the damage. Information on agricultural drought vulnerability status of different regions is extremely useful for implementation of long term drought management measures. The purpose of this study is to develop and implement a quantitative approach for measuring agricultural drought vulnerability at sub-district level based on agricultural water and reservoirs. To assess the vulnerability in a quantitative manner and also to deal with different physical and socioeconomic data on the occurrence of agricultural drought, we selected the appropriate factors for the assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability through preceding studies, and analyzed the meteorological and agricultural reservoir data from 2015 to 2018. Each item was weighted using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis and evaluated through the agricultural drought vulnerability estimation. The entire national vulnerability assessments showed that Ganghwa, Naju, and Damyang were the most vulnerable to agricultural droughts. As a result of analyzing spatial expression, Gyeongsang-do is relatively more vulnerable to drought than Gangwon-do and Gyeonggi-do. The results revealed that the methodology and evaluation items achieved good performance in drought response. In addition, vulnerability assessments based on agricultural reservoir are expected to contribute supporting effective drought decisions in the field of agricultural water management.