• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.205-230
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• 2021

This study examines the impact of the number of coronavirus cases on regime-switching in stock return volatility. This study documents the empirical evidence that the COVID-19 cases had an asymmetric effect on the regime of stock return volatility. When the stock return is in the low volatility regime, the probability of switching to the high volatility regime in the next trading day increases as the number of cumulative cases increases. In contrast, in the high volatility regime, the effect of cumulative cases on the transition probability is not statistically significant. This study also documents the evidence that the government measures against the pandemic contribute to promoting the high volatility regime of the KOSPI during the pandemic. Besides, this study projects future stock prices through the Monte Carlo simulation based on the estimated parameters and the predicted number of the COVID-19 new cases. Under a scenario where the number of new cases rapidly increases, stock price indices in Korea are expected to be in a downward trend over the next three months. On the other hand, under the moderate scenario and the best scenario, the stock indices are likely to continue to rise.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.122-128
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• 2021

Despite various economic crises, the domestic parcel delivery market handled 3.37 billion parcels in 2020 while maintaining annual growth due to the activation of e-commerce. In particular, in the case of the metropolitan area, which accounts for about 70% of the nation's parcel throughput, the increase in parcel delivery volume is directly related to the increase in freight vehicles in central area of Seoul,. And it leads to an increase of unnecessary social and environmental costs such as traffic congestion, road damage, and environmental pollution in the city. Therefore, in this paper we proposed the underground urban logistics system utilizing the existing urban rail infrastructure, and establish a conceptual design by operational scenario. In order to establish conceptual design of underground urban logistics system, we use order picking system process, which is use in warehouse, produce result combined ISO/IEC 26702. The results of this study can be usefully used before the underground urban logistics system is introduced.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.965-972
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• 2017

Assessment of vulnerability of water use to climate change include a variety of climate change scenarios. However, in most future vulnerability studies, only the climate change scenarios are used and not the future scenarios of social and economic indicators. Therefore, in this study, we applied the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario and Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathway (SSP) developed by IPCC to reflect the future. We selected indicators for estimating the vulnerability of water use, and indices were integrated with a multi-criteria decision making approach - Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The indicator data utilized national statistics and reports, social and economic scenarios, and simulated results from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which reflects climate change scenario. Finally, we derived the rankings of water use vulnerability for the short-term future (2020) and mid-term future (2050) within the Han River watershed. Generally, considering climate change alone and considering climate change plus social and economic changes showed a similar spatial distribution. In the future scenarios, the watershed rankings were similar, but showed differences with SSP scenario in some watersheds. Therefore, considering social and economic changes is expected to contribute to more effective responses to climate change.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.962-976
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• 2018

This study examined: 1) the influence of 3 social presence types including shopping companions, other consumers, and sales associates on the consumer's purchase decision at a retail store; 2) the difference in the influence by shopping situation involving shopping together or shopping alone; and 3) the differences by consumer susceptibility to social influence and self-confidence. The study conducted three experiments with the retail shopping scenario manipulating consumer's positive self-evaluation, but lack of confidence after trying on a clothing product. Experiment 1 and Experiment 2 examined the positive influence of social presence while Experiment 3 examined the negative influence. The results showed that the positive comment of a shopping companion had the highest influence on the purchase decision. Such impact was more observable under the low susceptibility to normative influence. The negative comments of sales associate and shopping companion lowered the purchase decision. There was no difference by shopping situation. The results imply that influences of social presence on the consumer's purchase decision are different by positive or negative comments and such influences are not different by shopping situation.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 2017

Recently, despite the presence of a large number of people with disabilities, facilities and services for the disabled are insufficient in comparison with the advanced countries. Especially, unmanned facilities and devices are not available for disabled people without help. As interest in disabled people increased, the convenient facilities for the disabled person should be legally installed in the public places. Moreover, social consensus formation and technical approaches are being actively pursued. In this paper, we propose a five-step scenario to use an unmanned post office. Based on the proposed scenario, we present the method to improve the accessibility of the user interface of the unmanned facilities. And we present a plan for establishing the short- and medium-term service models. This plan is expected to be highly practicable because it reflects the current situations of Korea Post and analysis result of the domestic and oversea cases.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.145-154
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• 2017

In the age of low fertility and aging society, youth suicide is not the problem of a certain class but it should be recognized as an urgent and important social problem to be solved by our society. We aim to support the training of youth gatekeeper who can acquire the right attitude and understanding of suicide for adolescents, detect premature suicide signs of peer friends and link them to specialized institutions. In this paper, we propose a scenario based learning program that is linked to the concrete situation that the young people can sympathize with and a serious educational game of visual novel type that encourages participation of youth. We expect that the proposed serious game will improve the accessibility of educational facilities and youths through smart devices.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.18 no.7
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• pp.1547-1556
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• 2014

In this paper, we propose cost-effective device-to-device (D2D) advertisement scenario with properties of proximity and timeliness through the convergence of D2D communications and social commerce service. We numerically analyze advertisement dissemination effect of the proposed scenario according to the number of sectors, and demonstrate the performance of the normalized D2D coverage, the average number of D2D users, and the average D2D coverage per user via intensive simulations. We verify the accuracy of the results for our numerical analysis compared with the simulation results.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.20-28
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• 2018

Currently, sharp increase of car is on the rise as a serious social problem due to loss of lives from car accident and environmental pollution. There is a study on ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) to seek coping measures. As for the commercialization of ITS, we aim for occupancy of world market through ASV (Advanced Safety Vehicle) related system development and international standardization. However, the domestic environment is very insufficient. Core factor technologies of ITS are Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Keeping Assist System, Forward Collision Warning System, AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking) system etc. These technologies are applied to cars to support driving of a driver. AEB system is stop the car automatically based on the result decided by the relative speed and distance with obstacle detected through sensor attached on car rather than depending on the driver. The purpose of AEB system is to measure the distance and speed of car and to prevent accident. Thus, AEB will be a system useful for prevention of accident by decreasing car accident along with the development of automobile technology. This study suggests a scenario to suggest a test evaluation method that accords with domestic environment and active response of international standard regarding the test evaluation method of AEB. Also, by setting the goal with function for distance, it suggests theoretic model according to the result. And the study aims to verify the theoretic evaluation standard per proposed scenario using car which is installed with AEB device through field car driving test on test road. It will be useful to utilize the suggested scenario and theoretical model when conducting AEB test evaluation.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.8
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• pp.203-209
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• 2016

The advertising media is undergoing a dramatic change mainly due to the increased use of smartphone. This study predicts the future of the advertising industry driven by the mobile advertising using scenario planning. Targeting technologies, restriction on the use of personal information, and overcoming ad avoidance were selected as key uncertain variables expected to impact on the growth of the mobile advertising 5 years later. With the support by expert interviews, the $2{\times}2$ matric combines two cases to generate four scenarios; the one whether mobile ads surpass PC-based online ads, the other whether the combined force of mobile and PC-based ads surpass the traditional media in advertising spendings. Each scenario is articulated according to the future of key variables. The most likely scenario is that mobile will dominate the advertising media market. However, it is important not to ignore different scenarios because key variables evolves in unexpected manner and then they can become reality. The future research will combine its key variables with social and economic ones and segment technical variables in more details.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.115-126
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• 2021

Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEA) is a decision-making process taking into account the environmental impact, economic and social impact of policies, plans, and programs at the higher stage prior to the project plan for promoting sustainable development. In this study, we analyzed the process and criteria for selecting appropriate alternatives when establishing development plan in SEA. First, the criteria for estimating changes in ecosystem services following the implementation of development project of industrial complex were presented. Second, alternative evaluations were conducted through an analysis of ecosystem service scenarios to explore suitable alternatives in Anseong. As a result, the environmental quality of selected area as the existing project site deteriorated according to the implementation of the project, and the dimensional reduction technique confirmed that the change in ecosystem service factors in project area was the optimal location. In addition, the results of the scenario assessment to explore suitable alternatives in Anseong City showed that the existing site had large capacity in terms of water quality control services (scenario 1), scenario 2 in terms of preconditioning services, and scenario 3 in terms of water supply services. The guidance of Ecosystem service assessment is expected to be available in decision-making of large-scale strategies (e.g., SEA) and projects by presenting more quantitative criteria for determining the adequacy and location feasibility of development plans and policy plans. This is expected to require various support, including legislation and revision of related laws, believed to be supported by advanced research.