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Disaster Risk Assessment using QRE Assessment Tool in Disaster Cases in Seoul Metropolitan (서울시 재난 사례 QRE 평가도구를 활용한 재난 위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Yong Moon;Lee, Tae Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2019
  • This study assessed the risk of disaster by using QRE(Quick Risk Estimation - UNISDR Roll Model City of Basic Evaluation Tool) tools for three natural disasters and sixteen social disasters managed by the Seoul Metropolitan Government. The criteria for selecting 19 disaster types in Seoul are limited to disasters that occur frequently in the past and cause a lot of damage to people and property if they occur. We also considered disasters that are likely to occur in the future. According to the results of the QRE tools for disaster type in Seoul, the most dangerous type of disaster among the Seoul city disasters was "suicide accident" and "deterioration of air quality". Suicide risk is high and it is not easy to take measures against the economic and psychological problems of suicide. This corresponds to the Risk ratings(Likelihood ranking score & Severity rating) "M6". In contrast, disaster types with low risk during the disaster managed by the city of Seoul were analyzed as flooding, water leakage, and water pollution accidents. In the case of floods, there is a high likelihood of disaster such as localized heavy rains and typhoons. However, the city of Seoul has established a comprehensive plan to reduce floods and water every five years. This aspect is considered to be appropriate for disaster prevention preparedness and relatively low disaster risk was analyzed. This corresponds to the disaster Risk ratings(Likelihood ranking score & Severity rating) "VL1". Finally, the QRE tool provides the city's leaders and disaster managers with a quick reference to the risk of a disaster so that decisions can be made faster. In addition, the risk assessment using the QRE tool has helped many aspects such as systematic evaluation of resilience against the city's safety risks, basic data on future investment plans, and disaster response.

Analysis of the Operation Status and Function based on the Overseas Accident Investigation Agency (국외 재난원인조사기구의 운영 현황 및 기능분석)

  • Lee, Kyung-Su;Yang, Seung-Ho;Kim, Yeon-Ju;Park, Jihye;Kim, Tai-Hoon;Kim, Hyunju
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.442-453
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The objective of this study is to suggest desirable direction of Korean accident investigation organization by analyzing the operation status and way of overseas developed countries' investigation agency. Method: To accomplish the objective of this study, we were examined four main characteristics of accident investigation agencies of the U.S., Japan, and Sweden, focusing on (1); the background of the establishment, (2);organizational structure, (3);major tasks and functions, (4); accident investigation procedures. Result: First, the purpose of its establishment and task is to prevent recurrence of disasters and accidents, at the same time, administrating and researching duties such as legal system, policy, recommending improvement and conducting scientific disaster-cause analysis to contribute safety for the government. Second, it is operated as an independent organization under the president, not belonging to the ministry, in order to enable fair investigation in an impartial position. Third, it has the authority to be recognized for its expertise in the results of investigation. In other words, it is operated as a permanent organization with professional personnel, and secures authority through the accident research with indepth investigation and high-quality recommendations. Conclusion: The overseas investigation agencies rapidly manage and coordinate their operational practices in order to resolve national requirements and social conflicts with fairness, accuracy and expertise in accident investigations. In order to prevent the recurrence of similar events, Korea needs to efficiently reconstruct its investigative functions distributed by each government department. In addition, institutional improvement is needed to make general adjustments at the national level, organize and operate control tower for when the accident has happened.

The Actual Use of Non-regular Workers and the Strategies of Social Partners in Sweden: with a Special Reference to Temporary Workers (스웨덴 비정규직의 사용 실태와 행위주체들의 전략: 임시직 사용 방식을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Don-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Labor Studies
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.47-83
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    • 2017
  • The Swedish labor market secures flexibility in the use of labor force by means of non-regular workers such as temporary workers among others instead of regular workers' layoffs. Although the labor law reform in the late 2000s made it easier to use temporary workers and the outbreak of the economic crisis strengthened the power of user firms against labor unions, the size of temporary workers was scaled down. It is the aim of this study to analyze the change in the use of temporary workers, to examine the effect of the labor law reform and that of economic crisis in that regard, and to explain how, over the use of temporary workers, user firms' strategy to secure flexibility and labor unions' strategy to regulate flexibility interact with each other so as to establish a new equilibrium through conflicts and compromises. The labor law reform to enhance the flexibility in the use of temporary workers failed to entail amendments of collective contracts. Besides, out of the economic crisis, user firms adopted a new policy to use third party workers more, refraining from employing temporary workers. That's why the number of temporary workers has declined eventually. User firms prefer to use third party workers because they could avoid their own responsibility as an employer and they could rely on 'permanent temporary' workers without any time limit. Labor unions, however, responded with a strategy to lay more strict regulations on the use of third party workers, so that third party workers could be used only for limited cause for external numerical flexibility. As a result, the managed flexibility thesis comes to prevail to the usage of non-regular workers in general beyond the category of agency workers. Korea with severe abuse of third party workers should learn from Swedish labor unions' strategy to provide third party workers with stronger employment security and higher wages so as to prevent user firms from abusing third party workers.

A Study on the Characteristics of Intentional Self-Poisoning Patients : Comparison between Non-Prescription and Prescription Drugs (일반의약품과 전문의약품 의도적 음독 자살 시도자 특성 분석 연구)

  • Cho, Eulah;Cho, Ji Hyun;Jho, Kyeng Hyeng;Sim, Hyun-Bo
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.116-125
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : Self-poisoning is the leading cause of visits to the emergency departments after a suicide attempts. This study is aimed to compare the patient characteristics according to the category of drugs ingested by the patients who attempted suicide. Methods : All medical charts were retrospectively reviewed from patients who visited the emergency center, at Seoul Medical Center, due to intentional self-poisoning from April of 2011 to July of 2019. We investigated the information regarding the subtype and quantity of the intoxication drug, how it was obtained, suicidal history, and psychiatric history, as well as, sociodemographic information. Variables were compared between prescription drug (PD) and non-prescription drug (NPD) poisoning groups. Results : The mean age of the NPD poisoning group was significantly lower than that of the PD poisoning group. The patient ratio of those enrolled in national health insurance and living with spouses were significantly higher in the NPD poisoning group. Compared to the NPD poisoning group, the PD poisoning group had a higher incidence of mental illnesses, underlying diseases and ratio of involuntary visit to the emergency department. Among the prescription drugs, the benzodiazepine poisoning group had a higher rate of self-prescription than the non-poisoning group, while the zolpidem poisoning group had a higher rate of the using someone else's prescription than other drugs. Each single drug poisoning group (benzodiazepine, zolpidem, and antidepressant single-agent) had a higher rate of no mental illness than each of the mixed-poisoning group. Conclusions : Guidelines for regulating non-prescription drugs are needed as a matter of suicide prevention. Also, this study suggests that clinicians need to be careful when issuing prescriptions and should suicidal risk according to patients' characteristics, duration of follow-up and type of drug packaging.

The Relationship between the Characteristics of Naturalized Plant and Working Type on Major Forest Restoration Sites (주요 산림복원사업지 내 귀화식물의 특성과 공종 간 영향 관계)

  • Jeon, Yongsam;Park, Joon Hyung;Kwon, Ohil;Lee, Hye Jeong;Lim, Chaeyoung
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.481-495
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    • 2022
  • This study was designed to identify the actual state of naturalized plants and invasive alien species that cause disturbances to the ecosystem, plants which are introduced after forest restoration, and explore the implications resulting from the project. Onsite examination included 29 sites which have been subjected to forest restoration by the Korea Forest Service. Once these were chosen, activity took place twice a year in the spring (May-June) and in the summer (August-September) in 2020 and 2021. Areas not relevant to the project sites were excluded from this activity so that we could identify the plants that could be understood to have been introduced or brought into the site after the actual forest restoration. And the correlation was analyzed, between the naturalized flora within the project sites and the working types applied to the site through confirmation of completion of the restoration project. The naturalized plants appearing on the entire site cover a total of 109 taxa, which includes 29 families, 80 genera, 108 species and 1 subspecies, while invasive plants included 3 families, 7 genera and 8 species. The number of classifications and the naturalization rate gradually decreased over time, after the project. While there was no significant difference between the number of classification groups and the naturalization rate for naturalized plants between project sites, given the number of taxa of naturalized plants, organized by type of damage, there were relatively more naturalized plants that appeared in the severed section of the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range, as well as at quarry and facility sites. Seeding apparently results in naturalization rates as high as 15.545%, on average, based on comparisons of naturalization rates by sowing, seeding, planting, herb planting, and sod pitching channels, all of these being methods of vegetation for planting/greening of bareland and slopes within the project areas. With no seeding, it was 9.167%, higher than the average. As for other vegetation, there was no significant difference depending on application of the working type. This means that unlike the plants subjected to planting, the working type of seed planting which makes it difficult to identify whether a certain plant is a naturalized plant greatly affects the introduction of naturalized plants to the restoration sites, even when using herb planting and sod pitching to control plants and results. Therefore the study suggests that there be inspection by experts of seeds when sowing within restoration sites. The results of this study suggest good practices that will help to direct effective vegetation restoration and follow-up management.

A Study on the Difficulties Faced by High School Science Teachers in Operating LMO Laboratories (고등학교 LMO 실험실 운영에서 과학교사가 갖는 어려움에 관한 연구)

  • Seongjae Lee;Jiwon Yeo;Sang-Hak Jeon
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2023
  • As the social and economic value of living modified organisms (LMOs) increase, so do the potential risks they pose to humans and the environment. Therefore, all laboratories using LMOs must establish an LMO laboratory in accordance with the standards required by regulations. Recently, in high school, LMO-related experimental programs have been developed for their educational effects. Also, in this case, it is necessary to comply with the regulation for LMO laboratories. However, high schools are still unfamiliar with the LMO laboratory, and it is difficult for teachers to manage an LMO laboratory because its implementation applies the same standards to general research institutes. In this study, we used causal chain analysis to discover the difficulties each teacher faced while setting up an LMO laboratory by examining three cases. The difficulties experienced by teachers are as follows: the first problem is "reluctance to set up an LMO laboratory," because of "administrative tasks for laboratory registration" and "difficulty in persuading colleagues." The second problem is a difficulty for teachers to operate LMO laboratory in blind spots, due to "inflexible installation and closure," "medical waste disposal," and "LMO education that does not fit the school context." Through this study, although the difficulty of running an LMO laboratory is caused by a lack of necessity and insufficient consideration of the school context, the more fundamental cause was a lack of collaborative planning between the educational field and the operating institutions. The teachers who participate in this research suggest that "using shared LAB" and "preparing opportunities for knowledge sharing" can be considered as strategies for operating the school's LMO laboratory. We feel that this study will provide a useful reference for teachers or schools planning to build an LMO laboratory.

Study on Causes and Countermeasures for the Mass Death of Fish in Reservoirs in Andong-si (안동시 저수지에서의 대량 어류 폐사에 대한 원인과 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Su Ho Bae;Sun Jin Hwang;Youn Jung Kim;Cheol Ho Jeong;Seong Yun Kim;Keon Sang Ryoo
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2023
  • This study focused on determining the specific causes and prevention methods of mass fish deaths occurred in five reservoirs (Gagugi, Neupgokgi, Danggokgi, Sagokji, and Hangokji) in Andong-si. For this purpose, a survey of agricultural land and livestock in the upper part of the reservoirs and analysis of water quality in the reservoir irrespective of whether it rains or not were conducted. We attempted to examine the changes in dissolved oxygen (DO) in the surface and bottom layers of reservoirs and changes in DO depending on the amount of livestock compost and time. Based on the above investigations, treatment plans were established to efficiently control the inflow of contaminated water into reservoirs. The rainfall and farmland areas in the upper part of the reservoir were investigated using Google and aviation data provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. The current status of livestock farms distributed around the reservoirs was also examined because compost from these farms can flow into the reservoir when it rains. Various water quality parameters, such as phosphate phosphorus (PO4-P) and ammonium nitrogen (NH3-N), were analyzed and compared for each reservoir during the rainy season. Changes in the DO concentration and electrical conductivity (EC) were also observed at the inlet of the reservoir during raining using an automated instrument. In addition, DO was measured until the concentration reached 0 ppm in 10 min by adding livestock compost at various concentrations (0.05%, 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.5% by wt.), where the concentration of the livestock compost represents the relative weight of rainwater. The DO concentration in the surface layer of reservoirs was 3.7 to 5.3 ppm, which is sufficient for fish survival. However, the fish could not survive at the bottom layer with DO concentration of 0.0-2.1 ppm. When the livestock compost was 0.3%, DO required 10-19 h to reach 0 ppm. Considering these results, it was confirmed that the DO in the bottom layer of the reservoir could easily change to an anaerobic state within 24 h when the livestock compost in the rainwater exceeds 0.3%. The results show that the direct cause of fish mortality is the inflow of excessive livestock compost into reservoirs during the first rainfall in spring. All the surveyed reservoirs had relatively good topographical features for the inflow of compost generated from livestock farms. This keeps the bottom layer of the reservoir free of oxygen. Therefore, to prevent fish death due to insufficient DO in the reservoir, measures should be undertaken to limit the amount of livestock compost flowing into the reservoir within 0.3%, which has been experimentally determined. As a basic countermeasure, minerals such as limestone, dolomite, and magnesia containing calcium and magnesium should be added to the compost of livestock farms around the reservoir. These minerals have excellent pollutant removal capabilities when sprayed onto the compost. In addition, measures should be taken to prevent fish death according to the characteristics of each reservoir.

A Servicism Model of the New Legal System (서비스주의 법제도 구조와 운용 연구)

  • Hyunsoo Kim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to derive a model of the legal system that is the basis for realizing the service economy, political administration, and social education system. Based on the experience of mankind's legal system operation in the historical era for the past 5,000 years, a legal system model that will make the future human society sustainable has been established. The problems of the current legal system were analyzed at the fundamental level. The root cause of injustice and unfairness was analyzed and a new legal system was designed. Through the legal systems of various national societies that have been attempted in the history of mankind, the structure of the legal system that is desirable for the modern society was designed. Human society, which has experienced how much good legal system has been and is being abused by human irrationality and nonsense, needs to make an effort to change the legal system paradigm itself by learning lessons from failure. This study derives the basis for a legal system that can realize justice and a fair society in the long term. It proposed a model for improving the legal system that allows human society to be happy for a long time. To this end, the fundamental role of the legal system was analyzed at the ideological level and the problems of the current legal system were presented. In addition, the problem of fundamental assumptions about human nature was analyzed and improved assumptions were presented. The structural system of the current legal system was analyzed and a new structure was proposed. In addition, a plan for the operation of a new legal system based on a new structure was suggested. The new legal system was named servicism system. This is because it is a model centered on thorough checks and balances between all opponents, not a simple linear one-dimensional legal system, but a multidimensional legal system, and because it is a viewpoint that clearly recognizes both human reason and desire. The new system is a model that reflects the confrontation between the rule of law and the non-law rule and the confrontation between the power people and the general public. A follow-up study is needed on a concrete plan for transitioning from the current legal system to a new legal system.

The Relationship Between Hospital Customers' Perceived Value, Attachment and Re-use Intention : Moderating Effect of Hospital Image (중소병원 이용고객의 지각된 가치, 애착, 재이용의도간 관계 연구)

  • Sin, Kyung-sook;An, Un-seok
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.19-37
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to find out what could be the cause of increasing the re-use intention for the continuous management of customers in terms of finding a strategic plan for the survival of Medium Sized Hospital To this end, a hypothesis for the direct effect verifying the structural relationship, a hypothesis for the mediating effect of attachment, and a hypothesis for the moderating effect on the hospital image were presented. The survey analysis results for customers who experienced the services of 5 Medium Sized Hospital in Gyeonggi-do were as follows. First, The results of analysis of the effect of Medium Sized Hospital customers' perceived value on reuse intention are as follows. all sub-factors of perceived value did not have a significant effect on reuse intention. This is significant in that it shows that the change occurred due to the involvement of attachment. Second, the results of examining the mediating effect of attachment in the relationship between the perceived value of small and medium hospital customers and their intention to reuse are as follows. Attachment to doctor's competency significantly mediated the relationship between quality value and reuse intention, emotional value and reuse intention, and social value and reuse intention. Significantly mediated the relationship between the provinces and the relationship between the price value and the intention to reuse. Third, hospital image significantly adjusted the relationship between quality value and medical technology competency. Based on the above results, it is necessary to establish a strategy of value perceived by customers as a strategy to increase the reuse intention of small and medium hospital customers. Therefore, the strategic goal setting of this value should be 'promoting attachment', and since the hospital image adjusts the perceived value and attachment of small and medium hospital customers, it is an image strategy that allows customers to appreciate their attachment to doctors and medical technology more highly. will have to establish.

The lesson From Korean War (한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로-)

  • Yoon, Il-Young
    • Journal of National Security and Military Science
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    • s.8
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    • pp.49-168
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    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

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