A Study of Factors Associated with Software Developers Job Turnover (데이터마이닝을 활용한 소프트웨어 개발인력의 업무 지속수행의도 결정요인 분석)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.21 no.2
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- pp.191-204
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- 2015
According to the '2013 Performance Assessment Report on the Financial Program' from the National Assembly Budget Office, the unfilled recruitment ratio of Software(SW) Developers in South Korea was 25% in the 2012 fiscal year. Moreover, the unfilled recruitment ratio of highly-qualified SW developers reaches almost 80%. This phenomenon is intensified in small and medium enterprises consisting of less than 300 employees. Young job-seekers in South Korea are increasingly avoiding becoming a SW developer and even the current SW developers want to change careers, which hinders the national development of IT industries. The Korean government has recently realized the problem and implemented policies to foster young SW developers. Due to this effort, it has become easier to find young SW developers at the beginning-level. However, it is still hard to recruit highly-qualified SW developers for many IT companies. This is because in order to become a SW developing expert, having a long term experiences are important. Thus, improving job continuity intentions of current SW developers is more important than fostering new SW developers. Therefore, this study surveyed the job continuity intentions of SW developers and analyzed the factors associated with them. As a method, we carried out a survey from September 2014 to October 2014, which was targeted on 130 SW developers who were working in IT industries in South Korea. We gathered the demographic information and characteristics of the respondents, work environments of a SW industry, and social positions for SW developers. Afterward, a regression analysis and a decision tree method were performed to analyze the data. These two methods are widely used data mining techniques, which have explanation ability and are mutually complementary. We first performed a linear regression method to find the important factors assaociated with a job continuity intension of SW developers. The result showed that an 'expected age' to work as a SW developer were the most significant factor associated with the job continuity intention. We supposed that the major cause of this phenomenon is the structural problem of IT industries in South Korea, which requires SW developers to change the work field from developing area to management as they are promoted. Also, a 'motivation' to become a SW developer and a 'personality (introverted tendency)' of a SW developer are highly importantly factors associated with the job continuity intention. Next, the decision tree method was performed to extract the characteristics of highly motivated developers and the low motivated ones. We used well-known C4.5 algorithm for decision tree analysis. The results showed that 'motivation', 'personality', and 'expected age' were also important factors influencing the job continuity intentions, which was similar to the results of the regression analysis. In addition to that, the 'ability to learn' new technology was a crucial factor for the decision rules of job continuity. In other words, a person with high ability to learn new technology tends to work as a SW developer for a longer period of time. The decision rule also showed that a 'social position' of SW developers and a 'prospect' of SW industry were minor factors influencing job continuity intensions. On the other hand, 'type of an employment (regular position/ non-regular position)' and 'type of company (ordering company/ service providing company)' did not affect the job continuity intension in both methods. In this research, we demonstrated the job continuity intentions of SW developers, who were actually working at IT companies in South Korea, and we analyzed the factors associated with them. These results can be used for human resource management in many IT companies when recruiting or fostering highly-qualified SW experts. It can also help to build SW developer fostering policy and to solve the problem of unfilled recruitment of SW Developers in South Korea.
Purpose : 3D Printers are used to create three-dimensional models based on blueprints. Based on this characteristic, it is feasible to develop a bolus that can minimize the air gap between skin and bolus in radiotherapy. This study aims to compare and analyze air gap and target dose at the branded 1 cm bolus with the developed customized bolus using 3D printers. Materials and Methods : RANDO phantom with a protruded tumor was used to procure images using CT simulator. CT DICOM file was transferred into the STL file, equivalent to 3D printers. Using this, customized bolus molding box (maintaining the 1 cm width) was created by processing 3D printers, and paraffin was melted to develop the customized bolus. The air gap of customized bolus and the branded 1 cm bolus was checked, and the differences in air gap was used to compare
The concentration of economic power takes the form of one or a few firms controlling a substantial portion of the economic resources and means in a certain economic area. At the same time, to the extent that these firms are owned by a few individuals, resource allocation can be manipulated by them rather than by the impersonal market mechanism. This will impair allocative efficiency, run counter to a decentralized market system and hamper the equitable distribution of wealth. Viewed from the historical evolution of Western capitalism in general, the concentration of economic power is a paradox in that it is a product of the free market system itself. The economic principle of natural discrimination works so that a few big firms preempt scarce resources and market opportunities. Prominent historical examples include trusts in America, Konzern in Germany and Zaibatsu in Japan in the early twentieth century. In other words, the concentration of economic power is the outcome as well as the antithesis of free competition. As long as judgment of the economic system at large depends upon the value systems of individuals, therefore, the issue of how to evaluate the concentration of economic power will inevitably be tinged with ideology. We have witnessed several different approaches to this problem such as communism, fascism and revised capitalism, and the last one seems to be the only surviving alternative. The concentration of economic power in Korea can be summarily represented by the "jaebol," namely, the conglomerate business group, the majority of whose member firms are monopolistic or oligopolistic in their respective markets and are owned by particular individuals. The jaebol has many dimensions in its size, but to sketch its magnitude, the share of the jaebol in the manufacturing sector reached 37.3% in shipment and 17.6% in employment as of 1989. The concentration of economic power can be ascribed to a number of causes. In the early stages of economic development, when the market system is immature, entrepreneurship must fill the gap inherent in the market in addition to performing its customary managerial function. Entrepreneurship of this sort is a scarce resource and becomes even more valuable as the target rate of economic growth gets higher. Entrepreneurship can neither be readily obtained in the market nor exhausted despite repeated use. Because of these peculiarities, economic power is bound to be concentrated in the hands of a few entrepreneurs and their business groups. It goes without saying, however, that the issue of whether the full exercise of money-making entrepreneurship is compatible with social mores is a different matter entirely. The rapidity of the concentration of economic power can also be traced to the diversification of business groups. The transplantation of advanced technology oriented toward mass production tends to saturate the small domestic market quite early and allows a firm to expand into new markets by making use of excess capacity and of monopoly profits. One of the reasons why the jaebol issue has become so acute in Korea lies in the nature of the government-business relationship. The Korean government has set economic development as its foremost national goal and, since then, has intervened profoundly in the private sector. Since most strategic industries promoted by the government required a huge capacity in technology, capital and manpower, big firms were favored over smaller firms, and the benefits of industrial policy naturally accrued to large business groups. The concentration of economic power which occured along the way was, therefore, not necessarily a product of the market system. At the same time, the concentration of ownership in business groups has been left largely intact as they have customarily met capital requirements by means of debt. The real advantage enjoyed by large business groups lies in synergy due to multiplant and multiproduct production. Even these effects, however, cannot always be considered socially optimal, as they offer disadvantages to other independent firms-for example, by foreclosing their markets. Moreover their fictitious or artificial advantages only aggravate the popular perception that most business groups have accumulated their wealth at the expense of the general public and under the behest of the government. Since Korea stands now at the threshold of establishing a full-fledged market economy along with political democracy, the phenomenon called the concentration of economic power must be correctly understood and the roles of business groups must be accordingly redefined. In doing so, we would do better to take a closer look at Japan which has experienced a demise of family-controlled Zaibatsu and a success with business groups(Kigyoshudan) whose ownership is dispersed among many firms and ultimately among the general public. The Japanese case cannot be an ideal model, but at least it gives us a good point of departure in that the issue of ownership is at the heart of the matter. In setting the basic direction of public policy aimed at controlling the concentration of economic power, one must harmonize efficiency and equity. Firm size in itself is not a problem, if it is dictated by efficiency considerations and if the firm behaves competitively in the market. As long as entrepreneurship is required for continuous economic growth and there is a discrepancy in entrepreneurial capacity among individuals, a concentration of economic power is bound to take place to some degree. Hence, the most effective way of reducing the inefficiency of business groups may be to impose competitive pressure on their activities. Concurrently, unless the concentration of ownership in business groups is scaled down, the seed of social discontent will still remain. Nevertheless, the dispersion of ownership requires a number of preconditions and, consequently, we must make consistent, long-term efforts on many fronts. We can suggest a long list of policy measures specifically designed to control the concentration of economic power. Whatever the policy may be, however, its intended effects will not be fully realized unless business groups abide by the moral code expected of socially responsible entrepreneurs. This is especially true, since the root of the problem of the excessive concentration of economic power lies outside the issue of efficiency, in problems concerning distribution, equity, and social justice.
Objective : To investigate the current status of prescription drugs in Oriental medical institutes and to draw up a future plan for the revitalization of Oriental medical health insurance, this survey has been performed. Method : The survey has been made with 321 doctors working at Oriental medical institutes in Daegu and Kyungbuk areas for a period of 3 month from June 1, 2010 until September 1, 2010. Result : 1. When it comes to the current status of the use of herbal drugs in Oriental Health insurance, most of doctors surveyed prescribe insurance drugs, and they prescribe insurance drugs to patients, who are less than 20% of total patients visiting their clinics. 2. The awareness of Herbal Health Care Drugs is investigated. When it comes to the understanding of the difference between insurance drugs(powder type drugs) and granular type drugs, doctors admit that they differ only in one aspect, whether or not their being covered by health insurance. Based on the survey results on the understanding of insurance coverage of granular type drugs, doctors, even though they long for granular type drugs to be accepted as insurance drugs, are worrying whether the number of outpatients might dwindle due to increased insurance co-payments. They also point out that the biggest obstacles in the expansion of the granular type drugs as insurance drugs are the lack of understanding of the government and the objection of the Health Insurance Review and Assesment service (HIRA) for fear of increased insurance claims. 3. Upon investigation on Oriental medicine doctors' understandings of herbal pharmaceutical industry, it is found that doctors' responses on pharmaceutical industry are not all positive ones('new product development and neglect of R&D infrastructure' and 'smallness of industry'). When it is investigated what area needs the greatest improvement in herbal pharmaceutical industry, 'securing sufficient capital, good manufacturing, and strengthening quality control', is the highest. 4. When it is asked what are the most needed in order to improve herbal health insurance medicine, responses such as 'the increase in the accessibility to and the utilization of Oriental medical clinics through the diversification of the means of prescriptions', 'the improvement of insurance benefits(cap adjustments)', 'increase the proportion of high quality medicinal plants', 'the ceiling of co-payments(deductible) at 20,000 won or more', 'expansion of the choices of formulations', 'formulational expansions of tablets and pills', and finally 'admittance and expansion of granular type drug as insurance drug' are the highest. 5. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the current status of the usage of Oriental health care herbal drugs, the followings are observed. First, the frequency of use of health insurance drugs by the doctors who use health insurance with general characteristics shows similar differences in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.001), average number of daily patients (p<0.05). Secondly, as to the willingness of the expanded usage of insurance drugs, similar differences are observed in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05). 6. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the perception of Herbal health care drugs, the followings are observed. First, inspecting general characteristics and insurance claims due to increased co-payments(deductible amount) reveals similar differences in case of working period (p<0.01) and in case of total monthly sales amount (p <0.01). Secondly, inspecting general characteristics and the obstacles that hinder granular type drugs from being accepted as health care insurance drugs shows similar differences in case of working period (p<0.05). 7. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the understanding of Oriental Herbal pharmaceutical companies, the followings are observed. First, opinions on the general characteristics of pharmaceutical companies, when examined with variance analysis, shows similar differences in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05). Secondly, when opinions are examined on general characteristics and the problems of herbal pharmaceutical companies, similar differences are found in case of working period (p<0.01) and in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.001). Lastly, opinions on the general characteristics and reforms of pharmaceutical companies, similar differences are observed in case of working period (p<0.001). 8. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the improvement of insurance Herbal drugs, the followings are observed. First, regarding general characteristics and insurance benefits, similar differences are observed in case of working period (p<0.05), in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05), and in case of average number of daily patients (p<0.01). Secondly, opinions on the general characteristics and the needs for the improvement of Herbal insurance drugs are examined in 5 different aspects, which are the approval of granular type drugs as insurance drugs, the expanded practices of the number of prescription insurance drugs, the needs of a variety of formulations, the needs of TFT of which numbers of Oriental medical doctors are members for the revision of the existing system, and the needs of adjusting the current ceiling of the fixed amount and the fixed rate. When processed by the analysis of variance, the results show similar differences in case of average number of daily patients (p<0.01). Conclusion : From the results of this study the first measures to take are, to reform overall insurance benefit system, including insurance co-payment system(fixed rate cap adjustment), to expand the number of the herbal drugs to be prescribed matching with insurance benefit accordingly, and to revitalize herbal medicine insurance system through the change of various formulations. In addition, it is recommended to improve the effectiveness of herbal medicine by making plans to enhance the efficacy of herbal medicine and by enabling small pharmaceutical companies to outgrow themselves.
The migration of population into the city has been on the increase according as Korea has been industrialized repidly since the 1960's. And there is a steady decrease in rural population. Thus lack of the number of the students forced many elementary Schools to be abolished. The aim of this study is to grasp the abolition types and the regional characteristics with the subject region of Chungbuk province. From the viewpoint of the increasing abolition of the elementary schools, I think it is very important to understand how the elementary schools have been abolished so far and predict how the subject region will have been changed in geography. Data for this study are based on Annual Establishment-Abolition Situation of the Schools published by Chungbuk office of Education in 1992, and many Kinds of the statistical reports, and the interview with the related. The results are as follows: 1. By examining the change of the number of the elementary schools and students in Chnugbuk, the numder of the students had also decreased since 1969 and was less than the half in 1990. As the number of the schools began to decrease ten years later than the students began to, the abolition of the elementary schools has started in reality from 1980's. 2. The 72 elementary schools were aboilshed between 1980 and 1992: the principal school is 9.7%, the branch school is 90.3%. The most fifteen schools are abolished in Yongdong-county and Chechon-county, and the least one school is abolished in Chechon-city and Okchon-county, and there is no abolition in Chongju-city and Chungju-city: According to the type of the abolition process, the least seven principal schools are abolished, and the principal school is reorganized as a branch school and twenty eight branch schools are abolished, and the most thirty seven branch schools are abolished. 3. When special change of the abolition is classified into the first perio (1980-1986) and the second period (1987-1992), in the first period the principal and branch schools were abolished and they are 13.9% of total abolition. The abolition out of them by building a dam is 60%. The principal schools in the submerged area though they have many students, were abolished. In the second period sixty two branch schools are abolished and they are 86.1% of total abolition. The most fifteen schools are abolished in Yongdong-county, thirteen in Chechon-county, seven in Tanyang-county, six in Chongwon-county, five in Chungwon-county and Koesan-county. Unlike the first period, the schools were abolished in this period because the number of students was so small. In this period sixty branch schools were abolished. All the students in the abolished schools except six schools transfered to the principal schools. The 58 school authorities help the students attend school by bus or support the expenses for attending school after that. 4. The abolition types of city, county and myon are classified into five types by the number of the abolished schools. The most forty nine abolished schools in type II are 68.1 of the total abolition. The least three abolished ones in type I are 12.5%. Considering the relation between the abolition type ane the number of schools and students, the number of the schools, increased in type I, II, III, V except IV from 1980 and then have decreased by abolition since 1980, while the more students decreased than they did in 1970 and the more the abolished school increases, the less the students decreases. The average students per school decreased in every abolition type and the most students decreased in type IV. 5. Considering the relation between the abolition type and the regional characteristics, most abolished schools were located between 100m and 300m above the sea level and it is 71% of the total abolition. The region without the abolition is high in the ratio of the cultivate land, ratio of rice field, and the part-time farmer, but the region with many abolition is low in the ratio of cultivated land. As for the manufacturing there are the most city, county and myon in the abolition type in Youngdong-county and Chechon-county where the manufacturing ratio of employing is low but Chongju-city without the abolition is a region where the manufacturing ratio is high. Consequently the development of the manufacturing causes the population to emigation out and the decrease of the population leads the transport is difficult of access, the facilities sold after being abolished are not being used in many ways. 7. Take an example of Youndong-county where the most schools were abolished, I have examined the school district and the population characteristics of the abolition. Though there were more villages, households, populations in the region that is higher than low above the sea level, the schools were abolished. Therefore we know that above the sea level had a great effect on the abolition. As a result of the regional analysis of the abolition, many schools were abolished by the artificial buildings such as a dam in the early 1980's but the schools in the late 1980's were abolished ten years later after the students decreased. More schools were abolished in the region where the manufacturing industry didn't develop. And the higher the school position was above the sea level, the sooner the school was abolished. It is also proved that both the beautiful natural scenery and accessibility are the important factor in using the abolished facilities practically.
Purpose: This study evaluated the manpower planning of dental technicians. Methods: Methods : Survey was conducted regarding subject's general characteristics, characteristics of dental technician's occupational view and working conditions, and reason to enter into branches of the public health enter. The survey sample consisted of 323 dental technicians (221 male/ 102 female). Survey was conducted for one month from August 1 to September 1 in 2010. Following results were obtained. Results: 1. Regarding general characteristics of the subjects, there was a slight male predilection with 68.4%. Subjects in their 40s occupied the highest proportion of 32.2%. Majority of subjects worked in the big cities (71.5%). Favored working places were dental laboratory (57.6%) and dental hospital or dental clinic (19.5%). Although no position is available in the public sector such as public health center or health care civil servant, 9.3% preferred working in the public health center. Public sector is more favored than 2-year technical colleges or dental supply and equipment companies. In respect to education, 57% of the subjects graduated college. 67.8% were married. Subjects who specialize in the porcelain or all-ceramic were 57.9%. With regard to current position, head of the dental laboratory was most common. 2. Following occupation characteristics were found. Economic reason took the highest proportion when deciding their occupation (39.9%) followed by gaining social experience (36.5%). Majority of the subjects (76.5%) wanted to work as dental technicians until their retirement. 71.5% pursuit to become a manager of the dental laboratory. 76.1% agreed on opening a dental technician position in the public health center. Regarding an authority to lead developing the dental technician position in the public sector, majority of the subject chose ministry of health and welfare (35.6%) and Korean dental technologist association (34.7%). Employment (average, 30%) and turnover rate (average, 36.5%) of dental technology college graduates ranged from 40% to 60%. Most important factors for the employment were practical experience (41.2%) and competency (34.4%). With regard to job satisfaction, so-so as 46.7% and satisfactory was 42.7% 3. In respect to the reason for opening a position in the public health center, 'It is needed to continue denture rogram for elderly patients' obtained the highest score (4.14 point). 'Institutional devices are required to open a position for dental technicians as a public healthcare provider' received high score (4.11 point). 4. Concerning the working conditions, 'professional knowledge is required' received the highest score (4.23) followed by 'too short maternity and parental leave' (4.21). 5. Relationship between general characteristics of the subjects and favor of working in the public health center was investigated. Significant differences were found according to the current and favored working area, favored occupation, education level, marital status, and specialty. Working in the public health center was favored by following subjects: working in mid- or small-sized cities (4.16 point, p<0.05); PhD degree-holder (4.59 point, p<0.01). 6. Among general characteristics of the subjects, significant difference of working conditions was found in the following factors: gender; working areas; favored working areas; favored working positions, and education level. Majority of subjects favored working in big cities and currently work in big cities although satisfaction was comparatively low (3.75 score). 7. Future plan to work in public health center was evaluated according to occupational characteristics. Subject's intention to work in the public healthcare center was significantly affected by opening of dental technician position, leading authority, average turnover rate, and factors affecting employment. Working in the public health care center was favored by the following subjects: Dental technicians who actively supported opening of the dental technician position (4.34 point, p<0.001); subjects who thought the Korean dental technologist association is responsible for the opening of positions in the public sector (4.26 point, p<0.001); and subjects who thought that attitude and character are important for the employment (p<0.001). 8. Concerning difference of working conditions according to the occupational characteristics, significant difference was demonstrated by factors such as a reason to choose to be a dental technician, work plan, pursuing position, responsible authority, average employment rate, and job satisfaction. High standard of working conditions was required in subjects who selected to be a dental technician for the leisure time after work (s.05 point, p<0.01), who planted to work until their marriage (4.25 point, p<0.001), and who pursuit to be a manager (3.98, p<0.05). 9. In respect to influence of general characteristics on the advancement to public health centers, the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.068 and age affected the working condition with significant difference according to the pvalue. 10. Regarding influence of general characteristics on the advancement to public health centers, the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.335 and work plan, opening of dental technician position in the public sector, and responsible authority had significant influence over the subject's intention to work in the public health center according to the p-value. 11. With regard to the influence of general characteristics on the advancement to public health centers, the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.091 and reason to choose to be a dental technician, work plan, and responsible authority significantly affected subject's working conditions. Conclusion: Korean society is becoming a super-aged society according to several statistics. As aged population is rapidly increasing, national health insurance plans to cover denture for senior citizen over 75 years old from 2012. Therefore, dental technicians are urgently needed in the public health centers all over the nation. Many subjects in this study planed to work until their retirement and recognized dental technician's expertise. Ministry of health and welfare and Korean dental technologist association should co-operate each other to prepare foundation and institutional devices for dental technicians to advance into the public health center. This will improve oral health of the population. This study showed urgency of medical facilities and services which meets increasing number of aged population and welfare of the population.
This study was conducted to obtain basic data which affected engine performance of the power tiller being widely used in the rural area. Among the various factors affected engine performance, only flywheel weight was considered as the major factor in this study. Fuel consumption ratio, motoring loss, torque, vibration and mechanical efficiency of the engine tested were measured and analyzed on the four levels of flywheel weight (32.2, 29.7, 26.4, 24.2 kg). The results obtained were as follows: 1. The maximum output of 6 and 7.5 kW engine was 7.43 kW and 7.85 kW respectively. When flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg, output power of the engine was increased 0.27 kW in 6 kW engine and increased 0.39 kW in 7.5 kW engine. 2. The fuel consumption ratio was decreased from 300.8 to 296.8 g/kW-hr in 6 kW engine and decreased from 313.6 to 312.8 g/kW-hr in 7.5 kW engine when the flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg. 3. The mechanical efficiencies of the engine was increased from 76.1 to 76.8% in 6 kW engine and increased from 76.7 to 77.0% in 7.5 kW engine when the flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg. 4. When the flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg, a tendency of a little decrease of vibration at X- and Z-axis in 6 kW engine and of a little increase of vibration at Y-axis in 6 kW engine and all directions in 7.5 kW engine was observed. 5. Motoring losses was decreased from 2.33 to l.76 kW in 6 kW engine and decreased from 2.46 to 1.84 kW in 7.5 kW engine when the flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg. From the above results and the flywheel weight calculated theoretically, it was recommendable that the flywheel weight should be reduced about 7 kg in 6 kW engine and about 10 kg in 7.5 kW engine, respectively.
This article is the reserch on actual condition of crime of arson which occurs in Korea and its countermeasures. The the presented problem in this article are that (1) we have generally very low rate concern about the crime of arson contrary to realistic problems of rapid increase of crime of arson (2) as such criminal motives became so diverse as to the economic or criminal purpose unlike characteristic and mental deficiency of old days, and to countermeasure these problems effectively it presentation the necessity of systemantic research. Based on analysis of reality of arson, the tendency of this arson in Korea in the ratio of increase is said to be higher than those in violence crime or general fire rate. and further its rate is far more greater than those of the U.S.A. and Japan. Arson is considered to be a method of using fire as crime and in case of presently residence to be the abject, it is a public offense crime which aqccompany fatality in human life. This is the well It now fact to all of us. And further in order to presentation to the crime of arson, strictness of criminal law (criminal law No, 164 and 169, and fire protection law No. 110 and 111) and classification of arsonist as felony are institutionary reinforced to punish with certainty of possibility, Therefore, as tendency of arson has been increased compared to other nations, it is necessary to supplement strategical policy to bring out overall concerns of the seriousness of risk and damage of arson, which have been resulted from the lack of understanding. In characteristics analysis of crime of arson, (1) It is now reveald that, in the past such crime rate appeared far more within the boundary of town or city areas in the past, presently increased rate of arsons in rural areas are far more than in the town or small city areas, thereby showing characteristics of crime of arson extending nation wide. (2) general timetable of arson shows that night more than day time rate, and reveald that is trait behavior in secrecy.(3) arsonists are usually arrested at site or by victim or report of third person(82,9%).Investigation activities or self surrenders rate only 11.2%. The time span of arrest is normally the same day of arson and at times it takes more than one year to arrest. This reveals its necessity to prepare for long period of time for arrest, (4) age rate of arson is in their thirties mostly as compared to homicide, robbery and adultery, and considerable numbers of arsons are in old age of over fifties. It reveals age rate is increased (5) Over half of the arsonists are below the junior high school (6) the rate of convicts by thier records is based on first offenders primarily and secondly more than 4 time convicts. This apparently shows necessity of effective correctional education policy for their social assimilation together with re-investigation of human education at the primary and secondary education system in thier life. The examples of motivation for arosnits, such as personal animosity, fury, monetary swindle, luscious purpose and other aims of destroying of proof, and other social resistance, violence including ways of threatening, beside the motives of individual defects, are diverse and arsonic suicide and specifically suicidal accompany together keenly manifested. When we take this fact with the criminal theory, it really reveals arsons of crime are increasing and its casualities are serious and a point as a way of suicide is the anomie theory of Durkheim and comensurate with the theory of that of Merton, Specifically in the arson of industrial complex, it is revealed that one with revolutionary motive or revolting motive would do the arsonic act. For the policy of prevention of arsons, professional research work in organizational cooperation for preventive activities is conducted in municipal or city wise functions in the name of Parson Taskforces and beside a variety of research institutes in federal government have been operating effectively to countermeasure in many fields of research. Franch and Sweden beside the U.S. set up a overall operation of fire prevention research funtions and have obtained very successful result. Japan also put their research likewise for countermeasure. In this research as a way of preventive fire policy, first, it is necessary to accomodate the legal preventitive activities for fire prevention in judicial side and as an administrative side, (1) precise statistic management of crime of arson (2) establishment of professional research functions or a corporate (3) improvement of system for cooperative structural team for investigation of fires and menpower organization of professional members. Secondly, social mentality in individual prospect, recognition of fires by arson and youth education of such effect, educational program for development and practical promotion. Thirdly, in view of environmental side, the ways of actual performance by programming with the establishment of cooperative advancement in local social function elements with administrative office, habitants, school facilities and newspapers measures (2) establishment of personal protection where weak menpowers are displayed in special fire prevention measures. These measures are presented for prevention of crime of arson. The control of crime and prevention shall be prepared as a means of self defence by the principle of self responsibility Specifically arsonists usually aims at the comparatively weak control of fire prevention is prevalent and it is therefore necessary to prepare individual facilities with their spontaneous management of fire prevention instead of public municipal funtures of local geverment. As Clifford L. Karchmer asserted instead of concerns about who would commit arson, what portion of area would be the target of the arson. It is effective to minister spontaveously the fire prevention measure in his facility with the consideration of characteristics of arson. On the other hand, it is necessary for the concerned personnel of local goverment and groups to distribute to the local society in timely manner for new information about the fire prevention, thus contribute to effective result of fire prevention result. In consideration of these factors, it is inevitable to never let coincide with the phemonemon of arsons in similar or mimic features as recognized that these could prevail just an epedemic as a strong imitational attitude. In processing of policy to encounter these problems, it is necessary to place priority of city policy to enhancement of overall concerns toward the definitive essense of crime of arson.
Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.
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