• Title/Summary/Keyword: Slope prediction model

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A Study on the Application of GFRP Rock Bolt Sensor through Field Experiment and Numerical Analysis (현장실험과 수치해석을 통한 GFRP 록볼트 센서의 적용성 연구)

  • Lee, Seungjoo;Chang, Suk-Hyun;Lee, Kang-Il;Kim, Bumjoo;Heo, Joon;Kim, Yong-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the rebar rock bolt sensor and GFRP rock bolt sensor, which can be monitored, were embedded in a large model slope, and the behavior of slopes occurred in the early stage of slope collapse was analyzed after performing the field failure test, numerical analysis of the individual element method and finite element method. By comparing and analyzing the field test and numerical analysis results, field applicability of rock slope collapse monitoring on the rebar rock bolt sensor and GFRP rock bolt sensor was investigated. Through this study, smart slope collapse prediction and warning system was developed, which can be used to induce effective evacuation of residents living in the collapsible area by detecting landslide and ground decay precursor information in advance.

The Technique of Landslide Hazard Prediction Using Vegetation Interpretation of Aerial Photo (항공사진의 식생 판독에 의한 재해 예측 기법)

  • 강인준;곽재하;정재형
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 1993
  • The vegetation such as grass, shrub, tree has been used to control the erosion and stabilize the slope for a long time. But the effects of vegetation on slope area is usually neglected in traditional stability analyses. There are many errors in slope analyses in thin soil mantles. Therefore the effects of vegetation is an important factor. But it is difficult and complex to represent the vegetation influence quantitatively in stability analysis. In this study, authors choose the landslide region at the Kum sung dong Kum-jung ku Pusan as a model area. Authors analyzed the degree of slope with the aerial photo interpretation and DTM data extracted from the topographic map, and the relationship of D.B.H. (diameter of breast height), height, and age of tree in field investigation data. Finally authors know the fact that landslide take place approximately 10 or 20 years later in arbitrary afforestable area where the degree of slope is 27. The prevention effect must be considered in the control of vegetation.

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Prediction of Landslides and Determination of Its Variable Importance Using AutoML (AutoML을 이용한 산사태 예측 및 변수 중요도 산정)

  • Nam, KoungHoon;Kim, Man-Il;Kwon, Oil;Wang, Fawu;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.315-325
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to develop a model to predict landslides and determine the variable importance of landslides susceptibility factors based on the probabilistic prediction of landslides occurring on slopes along the road. Field survey data of 30,615 slopes from 2007 to 2020 in Korea were analyzed to develop a landslide prediction model. Of the total 131 variable factors, 17 topographic factors and 114 geological factors (including 89 bedrocks) were used to predict landslides. Automated machine learning (AutoML) was used to classify landslides and non-landslides. The verification results revealed that the best model, an extremely randomized tree (XRT) with excellent predictive performance, yielded 83.977% of prediction rates on test data. As a result of the analysis to determine the variable importance of the landslide susceptibility factors, it was composed of 10 topographic factors and 9 geological factors, which was presented as a percentage for each factor. This model was evaluated probabilistically and quantitatively for the likelihood of landslide occurrence by deriving the ranking of variable importance using only on-site survey data. It is considered that this model can provide a reliable basis for slope safety assessment through field surveys to decision-makers in the future.

A Study on the Application of GIS for Analysis of Subsidence Hazard (지반침하 피해도 분석을 위한 GIS 활용에 관한 연구)

  • 권광수;유명환;박형동
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.557-563
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    • 2000
  • Subsidence hazard has never been considered seriously until recent yews in Korea, although its socioeconomic impact on Korea becomes more and more enormous. There have been a few studies for the application of GIS analysis technique to the prediction of subsidence hazard. For GIS analysis, several factors, which are represented by coverage, are considered and selected for building a GIS model. Numerical method was used to quantify the importance of each factor in GIS model and the result from numerical modeling using FLAC was compared with that from previous research based on empirical methods. Analysis in 3-D needs more computer resources (i.e. memory). Therefore that in 2.5-D was considered to overcome the problem. Not only maximum vertical subsidence but also maximum horizontal strain and maximum slope have been considered for the assessment of subsidence hazard. The model can be easily modified for the purpose of applications in any subsidence area, especially cavern or abandoned mines under thick soil layer.

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Migration Characteristics in Sine-Wave Type Rivers

  • Cha, Young-Kee;Pai, Dong-Man;Lee, Jong-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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    • v.4
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 1993
  • This paper presents a model on the migration characteristics which is developed by using the equations for conservation of mass, momentum, and for lateral stability of the streambed. This model enables prediction of the magnitude the location of near-bank bed scour as well as rates and direction of meander migration in the sine-wave type revers (SWR) of small sinuosity. It is evident from this study that the transverse bed slope factor B' and transverse mass flux factor play significant roles in predicting migration characteristics, and their values of B'=4.0 and $\alpha$= 0.4 seem reasonable. This model will produce a useful quidelines in planning, design, construction, and development of SWR basin projects.

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Pivot Nonlinearity in Disk Drive Rotary Actuator : Measurement and Modeling (HDD 회전형구동장치의 피봇비선형성 측정 및 모델링)

  • 박재흥;변용규;장흥성;노광춘
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1996.11a
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    • pp.419-424
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    • 1996
  • As track density increases, the effects of nonlinearity in pivot bearing of hard disk drive on the servo performance are becoming more important in considering the range of inertia force and the input torque during settling and tracking mode. Recently, an increasing attention is given to more precise experimental observations and modelings of pivot nonlinearity for achieving higher performance of servo control. In this paper, we propose a new model that shows an improved prediction of the pivot nonlinearity than existing preload-plus-two-slope model at matching simulations and experimental results in both time and frequency domains. Experimental measurements are carried out to validate and identify the specific nonlinearity presents in the pivot bearing when its in fine motion. Using the experimental results new model along with the existing one are characterized and compared for relevancies.

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A Hydraulic Conductivity Model Considering the Infiltration Characteristics Near Saturation in Unsaturated Slopes (불포화 사면의 포화 부근 침투 특성을 고려한 수리전도도 모델)

  • Oh, Se-Boong;Park, Ki-Hun;Kim, Jun-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2014
  • Unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (HC) is integrated theoretically from soil water retention curves (SWRC) by Mualem capillary model, but the prediction of HC is extremely sensitive to small variation of matric suction near saturation. Near saturation, the Mualem HC based on smooth SWRC decreases abruptly and has problems in the reliability of hydraulic behavior and the stability of numerical solutions. To improve van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) HC, the van Genuchten SWRC model is modified within range of low matric suction (arbitrary air entry pressure). At an arbitrary air entry pressure, the VG SWRC is linearized in log scale until full saturation. The modified VG SWRC does not affect the fit of actual retention behavior and either the parameters of original VG SWRC fit. Using the modified VG SWRC, the VGM HC is modified to integrate for each interval decomposed by arbitrary air entry pressure. An analytical solution on modified VGM HC is proposed each interval, to protect the rapid change in HC near saturation. For silty soils, VGM models of HC function underestimate the unsaturated permeability characteristics and especially show rapid reduction near saturation. The modified VGM model predicts more accurate HC functions for Korean weathered soils. Furthermore, near saturation, the saturated HC is conserved by the modified VGM model. After 2-D infiltration analysis of an actual slope, the hydraulic behaviors are compared for VGM and the modified models. The prediction by the proposed model conserved the convergence of solutions on various rainfall conditions. However, the solution by VGM model did not converge since the conductivity near saturation reduced abruptly for heavy rainfall condition. Using VGM model, the factor of safety is overestimated in both initial and final stage during heavy rainfall. Stability analysis based on infiltration analysis could simulate the actual slope failure by the proposed model on HC.

External Validation of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Acquisition Risk Prediction Model in a Medium Sized Hospital (중규모 종합병원 대상 카바페넴 내성 장내세균속균종(Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae) 획득위험 예측모형의 외적타당도 평가)

  • Seo, Su Min;Jeong, Ihn Sook
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.621-630
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study was aimed to evaluate the external validity of a carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) acquisition risk prediction model (the CREP-model) in a medium-sized hospital. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 613 patients (CRE group: 69, no-CRE group: 544) admitted to the intensive care units of a 453-beds secondary referral general hospital from March 1, 2017 to September 30, 2019 in South Korea. The performance of the CREP-model was analyzed with calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Results: The results showed that those higher in age had lower presence of multidrug resistant organisms (MDROs), cephalosporin use ≥ 15 days, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score ≥ 21 points, and lower CRE acquisition rates than those of CREP-model development subjects. The calibration-in-the-large was 0.12 (95% CI: - 0.16~0.39), while the calibration slope was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.63~1.12), and the concordance statistic was .71 (95% CI: .63~.78). At the predicted risk of .10, the sensitivity, specificity, and correct classification rates were 43.5%, 84.2%, and 79.6%, respectively. The net true positive according to the CREP-model were 3 per 100 subjects. After adjusting the predictors' cutting points, the concordance statistic increased to .84 (95% CI: .79~.89), and the sensitivity and net true positive was improved to 75.4%. and 6 per 100 subjects, respectively. Conclusion: The CREP-model's discrimination and clinical usefulness are low in a medium sized general hospital but are improved after adjusting for the predictors. Therefore, we suggest that institutions should only use the CREP-model after assessing the distribution of the predictors and adjusting their cutting points.

Development of Permanent Displacement Model for Seismic Mountain Slope (지진 시 산사면의 영구변위 추정식 개발)

  • Lee, Jong-Hoo;Park, Duhee;Ahn, Jae-Kwang;Park, Inn-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2015
  • Empirical seismic displacement equations based on the Newmark sliding block method are widely used to develop seismic landslide hazard map. Most proposed equations have been developed for embankments and landfills, and do not consider the dynamic response of sliding block. Therefore, they cannot be applied to Korean mountain slopes composed of thin, uniform soil-layer underlain by an inclined bedrock parallel to the slope. In this paper, a series of two-dimensional dynamic nonlinear finite difference analyses were performed to estimate the permanent seismic slope displacement. The seismic displacement of mountain slopes was calculated using the Newmark method and the equivalent acceleration time history. The calculated seismic displacements of the mountain slopes were compared to a widely used empirical displacement model. We show that the displacement prediction is significantly enhanced if the slope is modeled as a flexible sliding mass and the amplification characteristics are accounted for. Regression equation, which uses PGA, PGV, Arias intensity of the ground motion and the fundamental period of soil layer, is shown to provide a reliable estimate of the sliding displacement. Furthermore, the empirical equation is shown to reliably predict the hazard category.

Lifetime Prediction on PVC Insulation Material for IV and HIV Insulated Wire (IV와 HIV 절연 전선용 PVC 절연재료의 수명 예측)

  • Park, Hyung-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.8-13
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    • 2019
  • Weight and elongation changes of IV and HIV insulations were measured simultaneously at several given temperature of $80^{\circ}C$, $90^{\circ}C$ and $100^{\circ}C$. And the lifetime was predicted using the Arrhenius model. Based on the initial weight values, a 50% elongation reduction was seen at 6.96% for the IV insulation and 10.29% for the HIV insulation. The activation energy from the slope of the lifetime regression equation was calculated as 92.895 kJ/mol(0.9632 eV) for the IV insulation and 95.213 kJ/mol(0.9873 eV) for the HIV insulation. Also, the expected lifetime at the operating temperature of $30^{\circ}C$ to $90^{\circ}C$ is 2.02 to 94.32 years, and longer lifetime was predicted on HIV insulated wires than on IV insulated wires. As a result, it was found that the thermal characteristics of the HIV insulated wires were about 12.44% better than those of IV insulated wires under the same conditions of use.