• Title/Summary/Keyword: Simple Time Series Model

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Development of a Simultaneous CAE System for the Application to Large Steel Castings (대형주강품에 대한 CAE 시스템 개발 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Chul;Lee, Doo-Ho;Kim, Jong-Ki;So, Chan-Young;Choi, Jeong-Kil;Hong, Chun-Pyo
    • Journal of Korea Foundry Society
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.465-471
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    • 1997
  • An integrated computer program consisting of a pre-processor, main solver, and post-processor was developed for the design of large steel castings. The pre-processor, based on the AutoCAD, enables the user to produce approval drawings, casting design drawings and mesh diagrams in sequence using a personal computer. In the main solver, two numerical models were employed; one models the fluid flow during mold filling, and the other models the heat transfer and solidification. The post-processor can be used to present simulation results such as flow pattern, mold filling sequences, solidification times, temperature gradients and location of shrinkage defects by color graphics. In order to validate the applicability of the present integrated program, a series of experiments on simple-shaped steel castings were carried out. After the validation of the present model, it was applied to the casting design of the large steel anchor of an SC42 alloy. Various solidification parameters such as a temperature distribution and a solidification time in the casting and the mold were compared with those obtained experimentally. Simulated results predicting shrinkage defects were in good agreement with those obtained experimentally. It was found that the present method can be successfully applied to the quantitative casting design for complex-shaped large steel castings.

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The Application of Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for Modeling the Hourly Runoff in the Gapcheon Watershed (적응형 네트워크 기반 퍼지추론 시스템을 적용한 갑천유역의 홍수유출 모델링)

  • Kim, Ho Jun;Chung, Gunhui;Lee, Do-Hun;Lee, Eun Tae
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.5B
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2011
  • The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) which had a success for time series prediction and system control was applied for modeling the hourly runoff in the Gapcheon watershed. The ANFIS used the antecedent rainfall and runoff as the input. The ANFIS was trained by varying the various simulation factors such as mean areal rainfall estimation, the number of input variables, the type of membership function and the number of membership function. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean peak runoff error (PE), and mean peak time error (TE) were used for validating the ANFIS simulation. The ANFIS predicted runoff was in good agreement with the measured runoff and the applicability of ANFIS for modelling the hourly runoff appeared to be good. The forecasting ability of ANFIS up to the maximum 8 lead hour was investigated by applying the different input structure to ANFIS model. The accuracy of ANFIS for predicting the hourly runoff was reduced as the forecasting lead hours increased. The long-term predictability of ANFIS for forecasting the hourly runoff at longer lead hours appeared to be limited. The ANFIS might be useful for modeling the hourly runoff and has an advantage over the physically based models because the model construction of ANFIS based on only input and output data is relatively simple.

Behaviors of Soft Bangkok Clay behind Diaphragm Wall Under Unloading Compression Triaxial Test (삼축압축 하에서 지중연속벽 주변 방콕 연약 점토의 거동)

  • Le, Nghia Trong;Teparaksa, Wanchai;Mitachi, Toshiyuki;Kawaguchi, Takayuki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2007
  • The simple linear elastic-perfectly plastic model with soil parameters $s_u,\;E_u$ and n of undrained condition is usually applied to predict the displacement of a constructed diaphragm wall(DW) on soft soils during excavation. However, the application of this soil model for finite element analysis could not interpret the continued increment of the lateral displacement of the DW for the large and deep excavation area both during the elapsed time without activity of excavation and after finishing excavation. To study the characteristic behaviors of soil behind the DW during the periods without excavation, a series of tests on soft Bangkok clay samples are simulated in the same manner as stress condition of soil elements happening behind diaphragm wall by triaxial tests. Three kinds of triaxial tests are carried out in this research: $K_0$ consolidated undrained compression($CK_0U_C$) and $K_0$ consolidated drained/undrained unloading compression with periodic decrement of horizontal pressure($CK_0DUC$ and $CK_0UUC$). The study shows that the shear strength of series $CK_0DUC$ tests is equal to the residual strength of $CK_0UC$ tests. The Young's modulus determined at each decrement step of the horizontal pressure of soil specimen on $CK_0DUC$ tests decreases with increase in the deviator stress. In addition, the slope of Critical State Line of both $CK_0UC$ and $CK_0DUC$ tests is equal. Moreover, the axial and radial strain rates of each decrement of horizontal pressure step of $CK_0DUC$ tests are established with the function of time, a slope of critical state line and a ratio of deviator and mean effective stress. This study shows that the results of the unloading compression triaxial tests can be used to predict the diaphragm wall deflection during excavation.

A Nuclide Transfer Model for Barriers of the Seabed Repository Using Response Function (응답함수를 이용한 해저처분장의 방벽에 대한 핵종전달 모델)

  • Lee, Youn-Myoung;Kang, Chul-Hyung;Hahn, Pil-Soo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 1996
  • A nuclide transfer by utilizing mass transfer coefficient and barrier response function defined for each barrier is proposed, by which the final nuclide transfer rate into the sea water can be evaluated. When simple and immediate quantification of the nuclide release is necessary in the conservative aspect, using this kind of approach may be advantageous since each layered barrier can be treated separately from other media in series in the repository system, making it possible to apply separate solutions in succession to other various media. Although one disadvantage is that while flux continuity can be maintained at the interface by using the exit nuclide flux from the first medium as the source flux for the next one, there may be no guarantee for concentration continuity, this problem could be eliminated assuming that there is no boundary resistance to mass transfer across the interface. Mass transfer coefficient can be determined by the assumption that the nuclide concentration gradient at the interface between adjacent barriers remains constant and barrier response function is obtained from an analytical expression for nuclide flow rate out of each barrier in response to a unit impulse into the barrier multiplied by mass transfer coefficient. Total time-dependent nuclide transfer rate from the barrier can then be obtained by convoluting the response function for the barrier with a previously calculated set of time-varying input of nuclide flow rate for the previous barrier.

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Current Status of Systems Biology in Traditional Chinese medicine - in regards to influences to Korean Medicine (최근 중의학에서 시스템생물학의 발전 현황 - 한의학에 미치는 영향 및 시사점을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Seungeun;Lee, Sundong
    • Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2017
  • Objectives : This paper serves to explore current trends of systems biology in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and examine how it may influence the Traditional Korean medicine. Methods : Literature review method was collectively used to classify Introduction to systems biology, diagnosis and syndrome classification of systems biology in TCM perspective, physiotherapy including acupuncture, herbs and formula functions, TCM systems biology, and directions of academic development. Results : The term 'Systems biology' is coined as a combination of systems science and biology. It is a field of study that tries to understand living organism by establishing a theory based on an ideal model that analyzes and predicts the desired output with understanding of interrelationships and dynamics between variables. Systems biology has an integrated and multi-dimensional nature that observes the interaction among the elements constructing the network. The current state of systems biology in TCM is categorized into 4 parts: diagnosis and syndrome, physical therapy, herbs and formulas and academic development of TCM systems biology and its technology. Diagnosis and syndrome field is focusing on developing TCM into personalized medicine by clarifying Kidney yin deficiency patterns and metabolic differences among five patterns of diabetes and analyzing plasma metabolism and biomarkers of coronary heart disease patients. In the field of physical therapy such as acupuncture and moxibustion, researchers discovered the effect of stimulating acupoint ST40 on gene expression and the effects of acupuncture on treating functional dyspepsia and acute ischemic stroke. Herbs and formulas were analyzed with TCM network pharmacology. The therapeutic mechanisms of Si Wu Tang and its series formulas are explained by identifying potential active substances, targets and mechanism of action, including metabolic pathways of amino acid and fatty acid. For the academic development of TCM systems biology and its technology, it is necessary to integrate massive database, integrate pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, as well as systems biology. It is also essential to establish a platform to maximize herbal treatment through accumulation of research data and diseases-specific, or drug-specific network combined with clinical experiences, and identify functions and roles of molecules in herbs and conduct animal-based studies within TCM frame. So far, few literature reviews exist for systems biology in traditional Korean medicine and they merely re-examine known efficacies of simple substances, herbs and formulas. For the future, it is necessary to identify specific mechanisms of working agents and targets to maximize the effects of traditional medicine modalities. Conclusions : Systems biology is widely accepted and studied in TCM and already advanced into a field known as 'TCM systems biology', which calls for the study of incorporating TCM and systems biology. It is time for traditional Korean medicine to acknowledge the importance of systems biology and present scientific basis of traditional medicine and establish the principles of diagnosis, prevention and treatment of diseases. By doing so, traditional Korean medicine would be innovated and further developed into a personalized medicine.

Generalized Sigmidal Basis Function for Improving the Learning Performance fo Multilayer Perceptrons (다층 퍼셉트론의 학습 성능 개선을 위한 일반화된 시그모이드 베이시스 함수)

  • Park, Hye-Yeong;Lee, Gwan-Yong;Lee, Il-Byeong;Byeon, Hye-Ran
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.1261-1269
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    • 1999
  • 다층 퍼셉트론은 다양한 응용 분야에 성공적으로 적용되고 있는 대표적인 신경회로망 모델이다. 그러나 다층 퍼셉트론의 학습에서 나타나는 플라토에 기인한 느린 학습 속도와 지역 극소는 실제 응용문제에 적용함에 있어서 가장 큰 문제로 지적되어왔다. 이 문제를 해결하기 위해 여러 가지 다양한 학습알고리즘들이 개발되어 왔으나, 계산의 비효율성으로 인해 실제 문제에는 적용하기 힘든 예가 많은 등, 현재까지 만족할 만한 해결책은 제시되지 못하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 다층퍼셉트론의 베이시스 함수로 사용되는 시그모이드 함수를 보다 일반화된 형태로 정의하여 사용함으로써 학습에 있어서의 플라토를 완화하고, 지역극소에 빠지는 것을 줄이는 접근방법을 소개한다. 본 방법은 기존의 변형된 가중치 수정식을 사용한 학습 속도 향상의 방법들과는 다른 접근 방법을 택함으로써 기존의 방법들과 함께 사용하는 것이 가능하다는 특징을 갖고 있다. 제안하는 방법의 성능을 확인하기 위하여 간단한 패턴 인식 문제들에의 적용 실험 및 기존의 학습 속도 향상 방법을 함께 사용하여 시계열 예측 문제에 적용한 실험을 수행하였고, 그 결과로부터 제안안 방법의 효율성을 확인할 수 있었다. Abstract A multilayer perceptron is the most well-known neural network model which has been successfully applied to various fields of application. Its slow learning caused by plateau and local minima of gradient descent learning, however, have been pointed as the biggest problems in its practical use. To solve such a problem, a number of researches on learning algorithms have been conducted, but it can be said that none of satisfying solutions have been presented so far because the problems such as computational inefficiency have still been existed in these algorithms. In this paper, we propose a new learning approach to minimize the effect of plateau and reduce the possibility of getting trapped in local minima by generalizing the sigmoidal function which is used as the basis function of a multilayer perceptron. Adapting a new approach that differs from the conventional methods with revised updating equation, the proposed method can be used together with the existing methods to improve the learning performance. We conducted some experiments to test the proposed method on simple problems of pattern recognition and a problem of time series prediction, compared our results with the results of the existing methods, and confirmed that the proposed method is efficient enough to apply to the real problems.

Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

  • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2023
  • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.

Ecoclimatic Map over North-East Asia Using SPOT/VEGETATION 10-day Synthesis Data (SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI 자료를 이용한 동북아시아의 생태기후지도)

  • Park Youn-Young;Han Kyung-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.86-96
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    • 2006
  • Ecoclimap-1, a new complete surface parameter global database at a 1-km resolution, was previously presented. It is intended to be used to initialize the soil-vegetation- atmosphere transfer schemes in meteorological and climate models. Surface parameters in the Ecoclimap-1 database are provided in the form of a per-class value by an ecoclimatic base map from a simple merging of land cover and climate maps. The principal objective of this ecoclimatic map is to consider intra-class variability of life cycle that the usual land cover map cannot describe. Although the ecoclimatic map considering land cover and climate is used, the intra-class variability was still too high inside some classes. In this study, a new strategy is defined; the idea is to use the information contained in S10 NDVI SPOT/VEGETATION profiles to split a land cover into more homogeneous sub-classes. This utilizes an intra-class unsupervised sub-clustering methodology instead of simple merging. This study was performed to provide a new ecolimatic map over Northeast Asia in the framework of Ecoclimap-2 global database construction for surface parameters. We used the University of Maryland's 1km Global Land Cover Database (UMD) and a climate map to determine the initial number of clusters for intra-class sub-clustering. An unsupervised classification process using six years of NDVI profiles allows the discrimination of different behavior for each land cover class. We checked the spatial coherence of the classes and, if necessary, carried out an aggregation step of the clusters having a similar NDVI time series profile. From the mapping system, 29 ecosystems resulted for the study area. In terms of climate-related studies, this new ecosystem map may be useful as a base map to construct an Ecoclimap-2 database and to improve the surface climatology quality in the climate model.

Text Mining-Based Emerging Trend Analysis for the Aviation Industry (항공산업 미래유망분야 선정을 위한 텍스트 마이닝 기반의 트렌드 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jung;Jo, Nam-Ok;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2015
  • Recently, there has been a surge of interest in finding core issues and analyzing emerging trends for the future. This represents efforts to devise national strategies and policies based on the selection of promising areas that can create economic and social added value. The existing studies, including those dedicated to the discovery of future promising fields, have mostly been dependent on qualitative research methods such as literature review and expert judgement. Deriving results from large amounts of information under this approach is both costly and time consuming. Efforts have been made to make up for the weaknesses of the conventional qualitative analysis approach designed to select key promising areas through discovery of future core issues and emerging trend analysis in various areas of academic research. There needs to be a paradigm shift in toward implementing qualitative research methods along with quantitative research methods like text mining in a mutually complementary manner. The change is to ensure objective and practical emerging trend analysis results based on large amounts of data. However, even such studies have had shortcoming related to their dependence on simple keywords for analysis, which makes it difficult to derive meaning from data. Besides, no study has been carried out so far to develop core issues and analyze emerging trends in special domains like the aviation industry. The change used to implement recent studies is being witnessed in various areas such as the steel industry, the information and communications technology industry, the construction industry in architectural engineering and so on. This study focused on retrieving aviation-related core issues and emerging trends from overall research papers pertaining to aviation through text mining, which is one of the big data analysis techniques. In this manner, the promising future areas for the air transport industry are selected based on objective data from aviation-related research papers. In order to compensate for the difficulties in grasping the meaning of single words in emerging trend analysis at keyword levels, this study will adopt topic analysis, which is a technique used to find out general themes latent in text document sets. The analysis will lead to the extraction of topics, which represent keyword sets, thereby discovering core issues and conducting emerging trend analysis. Based on the issues, it identified aviation-related research trends and selected the promising areas for the future. Research on core issue retrieval and emerging trend analysis for the aviation industry based on big data analysis is still in its incipient stages. So, the analysis targets for this study are restricted to data from aviation-related research papers. However, it has significance in that it prepared a quantitative analysis model for continuously monitoring the derived core issues and presenting directions regarding the areas with good prospects for the future. In the future, the scope is slated to expand to cover relevant domestic or international news articles and bidding information as well, thus increasing the reliability of analysis results. On the basis of the topic analysis results, core issues for the aviation industry will be determined. Then, emerging trend analysis for the issues will be implemented by year in order to identify the changes they undergo in time series. Through these procedures, this study aims to prepare a system for developing key promising areas for the future aviation industry as well as for ensuring rapid response. Additionally, the promising areas selected based on the aforementioned results and the analysis of pertinent policy research reports will be compared with the areas in which the actual government investments are made. The results from this comparative analysis are expected to make useful reference materials for future policy development and budget establishment.

Estimation of SCS Runoff Curve Number and Hydrograph by Using Highly Detailed Soil Map(1:5,000) in a Small Watershed, Sosu-myeon, Goesan-gun (SCS-CN 산정을 위한 수치세부정밀토양도 활용과 괴산군 소수면 소유역의 물 유출량 평가)

  • Hong, Suk-Young;Jung, Kang-Ho;Choi, Chol-Uong;Jang, Min-Won;Kim, Yi-Hyun;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Ha, Sang-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.363-373
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    • 2010
  • "Curve number" (CN) indicates the runoff potential of an area. The US Soil Conservation Service (SCS)'s CN method is a simple, widely used, and efficient method for estimating the runoff from a rainfall event in a particular area, especially in ungauged basins. The use of soil maps requested from end-users was dominant up to about 80% of total use for estimating CN based rainfall-runoff. This study introduce the use of soil maps with respect to hydrologic and watershed management focused on hydrologic soil group and a case study resulted in assessing effective rainfall and runoff hydrograph based on SCS-CN method in a small watershed. The ratio of distribution areas for hydrologic soil group based on detailed soil map (1:25,000) of Korea were 42.2% (A), 29.4% (B), 18.5% (C), and 9.9% (D) for HSG 1995, and 35.1% (A), 15.7% (B), 5.5% (C), and 43.7% (D) for HSG 2006, respectively. The ratio of D group in HSG 2006 accounted for 43.7% of the total and 34.1% reclassified from A, B, and C groups of HSG 1995. Similarity between HSG 1995 and 2006 was about 55%. Our study area was located in Sosu-myeon, Goesan-gun including an approx. 44 $km^2$-catchment, Chungchungbuk-do. We used a digital elevation model (DEM) to delineate the catchments. The soils were classified into 4 hydrologic soil groups on the basis of measured infiltration rate and a model of the representative soils of the study area reported by Jung et al. 2006. Digital soil maps (1:5,000) were used for classifying hydrologic soil groups on the basis of soil series unit. Using high resolution satellite images, we delineated the boundary of each field or other parcel on computer screen, then surveyed the land use and cover in each. We calculated CN for each and used those data and a land use and cover map and a hydrologic soil map to estimate runoff. CN values, which are ranged from 0 (no runoff) to 100 (all precipitation runs off), of the catchment were 73 by HSG 1995 and 79 by HSG 2006, respectively. Each runoff response, peak runoff and time-to-peak, was examined using the SCS triangular synthetic unit hydrograph, and the results of HSG 2006 showed better agreement with the field observed data than those with use of HSG 1995.