• Title/Summary/Keyword: Short-term interest rate model

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Meta-analysis of Outcomes Compared between Robotic and Laparoscopic Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer

  • Liao, Gui-Xiang;Xie, Guo-Zhu;Li, Rong;Zhao, Zhi-Hong;Sun, Quan-Quan;Du, Sha-Sha;Ren, Chen;Li, Guo-Xing;Deng, Hai-Jun;Yuan, Ya-Wei
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.4871-4875
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    • 2013
  • This meta-analysis was performed to evaluate and compare the outcomes of robotic gastrectomy (RG) and laparoscopic gastrectomy (LG) for treating gastric cancer. A systematic literature search was carried out using the PubMed database, Web of Knowledge, and the Cochrane Library database to obtain comparative studies assessing the safety and efficiency between RG and LG in May, 2013. Data of interest were analyzed by using of Review Manager version 5.2 software (Cochrane Collaboration). A fixed effects model or random effects model was applied according to heterogeneity. Seven papers reporting results that compared robotic gastrectomy with laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer were selected for this meta-analysis. Our metaanalysis included 2,235 patients with gastric cancer, of which 1,473 had undergone laparoscopic gastrectomy, and 762 had received robotic gastrectomy. Compared with laparoscopic gastrectomy, robotic gastrectomy was associated with longer operative time but less blood loss. There were no significant difference in terms of hospital stay, total postoperative complication rate, proximal margin, distal margin, numbers of harvested lymph nodes and mortality rate between robotic gastrectomy and laparoscopic gastrectomy. Our meta-analysis showed that robotic gastrectomy is a safe technique for treating gastric cancer that compares favorably with laparoscopic gastrectomy in short term outcomes. However, the long term outcomes between the two techniques need to be further examined.

Flow rate prediction at Paldang Bridge using deep learning models (딥러닝 모형을 이용한 팔당대교 지점에서의 유량 예측)

  • Seong, Yeongjeong;Park, Kidoo;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.8
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    • pp.565-575
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    • 2022
  • Recently, in the field of water resource engineering, interest in predicting time series water levels and flow rates using deep learning technology that has rapidly developed along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution is increasing. In addition, although water-level and flow-rate prediction have been performed using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model that can predict time-series data, the accuracy of flow-rate prediction in rivers with rapid temporal fluctuations was predicted to be very low compared to that of water-level prediction. In this study, the Paldang Bridge Station of the Han River, which has a large flow-rate fluctuation and little influence from tidal waves in the estuary, was selected. In addition, time-series data with large flow fluctuations were selected to collect water-level and flow-rate data for 2 years and 7 months, which are relatively short in data length, to be used as training and prediction data for the LSTM and GRU models. When learning time-series water levels with very high time fluctuation in two models, the predicted water-level results in both models secured appropriate accuracy compared to observation water levels, but when training rapidly temporal fluctuation flow rates directly in two models, the predicted flow rates deteriorated significantly. Therefore, in this study, in order to accurately predict the rapidly changing flow rate, the water-level data predicted by the two models could be used as input data for the rating curve to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of the flow rates. Finally, the results of this study are expected to be sufficiently used as the data of flood warning system in urban rivers where the observation length of hydrological data is not relatively long and the flow-rate changes rapidly.

KOSPI index prediction using topic modeling and LSTM

  • Jin-Hyeon Joo;Geun-Duk Park
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2024
  • In this paper, we proposes a method to improve the accuracy of predicting the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) by combining topic modeling and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. In this paper, we use the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) technique to extract ten major topics related to interest rate increases and decreases from financial news data. The extracted topics, along with historical KOSPI index data, are input into an LSTM model to predict the KOSPI index. The proposed model has the characteristic of predicting the KOSPI index by combining the time series prediction method by inputting the historical KOSPI index into the LSTM model and the topic modeling method by inputting news data. To verify the performance of the proposed model, this paper designs four models (LSTM_K model, LSTM_KNS model, LDA_K model, LDA_KNS model) based on the types of input data for the LSTM and presents the predictive performance of each model. The comparison of prediction performance results shows that the LSTM model (LDA_K model), which uses financial news topic data and historical KOSPI index data as inputs, recorded the lowest RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), demonstrating the best predictive performance.

Is BTC Oil Pipeline Good or Bad for Azerbaijan Economy? (BTC 파이프라인이 아제르바이잔 경제에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Hwang, Yun Seop;Kim, Soo Eun;Choi, Young Jun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.413-440
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    • 2010
  • Since 2000, as importance of sourcing energy emphasized caused by instability of international oil price, interests toward Caspian countries as an alternative markets has increased. Especially, Azerbaijan, as middle Asian emerging exporting country, has performed drastic economic boom because of massive amount of foreign capital flowed in and construction of BTC pipeline. However, despite this economic surge, there are unbalanced economy which is merely focusing on energy industry and pressure from increase in real exchange rate and inflation. In order to analyze the sustainability of Azerbaijan economy, the total sample time period of this paper is from January 2001 to December 2007 and the term is divided into before and after BTC line construction. Vector Error-Correction Model has been applied to analysis confirming short-term and long-term effect. As a result, Azerbaijan now face the symptoms of the recession during the time period and this is due to high oil price and increase in export influenced by BTC oil pipeline resulting in decrease in real interest rate. This conclusion is to affect competitiveness of manufacturing industry, base industry for economic proliferation, in a negative way.

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An Empirical Study on Bank Capital Channel and Risk-Taking Channel for Monetary Policy (통화정책의 은행자본경로와 위험추구경로에 대한 실증분석)

  • Lee, Sang Jin
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2021
  • This study empirically analyzes whether bank capital channel and risk-taking channel for monetary policy work for domestic banks in South Korea by analyzing the impact of the expansionary monetary policy on the rate spread between deposit and loan, capital ratio, and loan amount. For the empirical analysis, the Uhlig (2005)'s sign-restricted SVAR(Structural Vector Auto-Regression) model is used. The empirical results are as follows: the bank's interest rate margin increases, the capital ratio improves, risk-weighted asset ratio increases, and the amount of loans increases in response to expansionary monetary shock. This empirical results confirm that bank capital channel and risk-taking channel work in domestic banks, similar to the previous research results. The implications of this study are as follows. Although the expansionary monetary policy has the effect of improving the bank's financial soundness and profitability in the short term as bank capital channel works, it could negatively affect the soundness of banks by encouraging banks to pursue risk in the long run as risk-taking channel works. It is necessary to note that the capital ratio according to the BIS minimum capital requirement of individual banks may cause an illusion in supervising the soundness of the bank. So, the bank's aggressive lending expansion may lead to an inherent weakness in the event of a crisis. Since the financial authority may have an illusion about the bank's financial soundness if the low interest rate persists, the authority needs to be actively interested in stress tests and concentration risk management in the pillar 2 of the BIS capital accord. In addition, since system risk may increase, it is necessary to conduct regular stress tests or preemptive monitoring of assets concentration risk.

A Study on Determinants of Asset Price : Focused on USA (자산가격의 결정요인에 대한 실증분석 : 미국사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Hyoung-Kyoo;Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

An Analysis on the Effect of Japanese Monetary Policy in 21C (21c 일본 통화정책 효과에 대한 분석)

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.105-125
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    • 2016
  • The expansionary monetary policy was practiced after 2001 in Japan to treat the deflation spiral, and reduced only the nominal interest rates and domestic household demand. One of the most serious factors for this failure was the change of private sector's expectancy. This paper has studied the effect of Japanese monetary policy in 21c., with empirical research based on a renewed macroeconomic model and the VAR. The empirical analysis shows that the effect of monetary policy on the national income during 2001.01-2015.03 is weaker than that of 1985.01-1994.04. Money volume has a diminutive effect on the growth of GDP within a short term after 2001. The change in the expectations of the private sectors might have been the cause of ineffectiveness of the expansive monetary policy. Economic agents learned from the past Japanese financial crisis that an expansive monetary policy increased the inflation rate and caused the 'bubbles to burst' afterwards. The VAR analysis says that the effectiveness of monetary policy on the economic depression declined over the past 20 years and the expansion of money volume has no influence on exchange rate and net export. This means that the expansive monetary policy lost its effect on net export and national income steadily. Monetary policy makers have to recognize this fact, and to consider another anti-cycle political instrument, i.e. the fiscal policy with government debt.