• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.10
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• pp.795-805
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• 2021

In this study, after developing an LSTM-based deep learning model for estimating daily runoff in the Soyang River Dam basin, the accuracy of the model for various combinations of model structure and input data was investigated. A model was built based on the database consisting of average daily precipitation, average daily temperature, average daily wind speed (input up to here), and daily average flow rate (output) during the first 12 years (1997.1.1-2008.12.31). The Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and RMSE were examined for validation using the flow discharge data of the later 12 years (2009.1.1-2020.12.31). The combination that showed the highest accuracy was the case in which all possible input data (12 years of daily precipitation, weather temperature, wind speed) were used on the LSTM model structure with 64 hidden units. The NSE and RMSE of the verification period were 0.862 and 76.8 m³/s, respectively. When the number of hidden units of LSTM exceeds 500, the performance degradation of the model due to overfitting begins to appear, and when the number of hidden units exceeds 1000, the overfitting problem becomes prominent. A model with very high performance (NSE=0.8~0.84) could be obtained when only 12 years of daily precipitation was used for model training. A model with reasonably high performance (NSE=0.63-0.85) when only one year of input data was used for model training. In particular, an accurate model (NSE=0.85) could be obtained if the one year of training data contains a wide magnitude of flow events such as extreme flow and droughts as well as normal events. If the training data includes both the normal and extreme flow rates, input data that is longer than 5 years did not significantly improve the model performance.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.spc1
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• pp.1143-1154
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• 2021

The selection of activation function has a great influence on the groundwater level prediction performance of artificial neural network (ANN) model. In this study, five activation functions were applied to ANN model for two groundwater level observation wells in the middle mountainous area of the Pyoseon watershed in Jeju Island. The results of the prediction of the groundwater level were compared and analyzed, and the optimal activation function was derived. In addition, the results of LSTM model, which is a widely used recurrent neural network model, were compared and analyzed with the results of the ANN models with each activation function. As a result, ELU and Leaky ReLU functions were derived as the optimal activation functions for the prediction of the groundwater level for observation well with relatively large fluctuations in groundwater level and for observation well with relatively small fluctuations, respectively. On the other hand, sigmoid function had the lowest predictive performance among the five activation functions for training period, and produced inappropriate results in peak and lowest groundwater level prediction. The ANN-ELU and ANN-Leaky ReLU models showed groundwater level prediction performance comparable to that of the LSTM model, and thus had sufficient potential for application. The methods and results of this study can be usefully used in other studies.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.12spc
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• pp.664-674
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• 2021

The relevance of this scientific research is determined by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current trends and dynamics of world tourism development. This article aims to identify patterns of development of the modern tourist market, analysis of problems and prospects of development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. General scientific methods and methods of research are used in the work: analysis, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data. The analysis of the viewpoints of foreign and domestic authors on the research of the international tourist market allowed us to substantiate the actual directions of tourism development due to the influence of negative factors connected with the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Economic-statistical, abstract-logical, and economic-mathematical methods of research were used during the process of study and data processing. Results. The analysis of the current state of the tourist market by world regions was carried out. It was found that tourism is one of the most affected sectors from COVID-19, as, by the end of 2020, the total number of tourist arrivals in the world decreased by 74% compared to the same period in 2019. The consequence of this decline was a loss of total global tourism revenues by the end of 2020, which equaled $1.3 trillion. 27% of all destinations are completely closed to international tourism. At the end of 2020, the economy of international tourism has shrunk by about 80%. In 2020 the world traveled 98 million fewer people (-83%) relative to the same period last year. Tourism was hit hardest by the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region, where travel restrictions are as strict as possible. International arrivals in this region fell by 84% (300 million). The Middle East and Africa recorded declines of 75 and 70 percent. Despite a small and short-lived recovery in the summer of 2020, Europe lost 71% of the tourist flow, with the European continent recording the largest drop in absolute terms compared with 2019, 500 million. In North and South America, foreign arrivals declined. It is revealed that a significant decrease in tourist flows leads to a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings and taxes, which limits the ability of states to support the tourism industry. Three possible scenarios of exit of the tourist industry from the crisis, reflecting the most probable changes of monthly tourist flows, are considered. The characteristics of respondents from Ukraine, Germany, and the USA and their attitude to travel depending on gender, age, education level, professional status, and monthly income are presented. About 57% of respondents from Ukraine, Poland, and the United States were planning a tourist trip in 2021. Note that people with higher or secondary education were more willing to plan such a trip. The results of the empirical study confirm that interest in domestic tourism has increased significantly in 2021. The regression model of dependence of the number of domestic tourist trips on the example of Ukraine with time tendency (t) and seasonal variations (Turˆt = 7288,498 - 20,58t - 410,88∑5) it forecast for 2020, which allows stabilizing the process of tourist trips after the pandemic to use this model to forecast for any country. Discussion. We should emphasize the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that many experts and scientists believe in the long-term recovery of the tourism industry. In our opinion, the governments of the countries need to refocus on domestic tourism and deal with infrastructure development, search for new niches, formats, formation of new package deals in new - domestic - segment (new products' development (tourist routes, exhibitions, sightseeing programs, special rehabilitation programs after COVID) -19 in sanatoriums, etc.); creation of individual offers for different target audiences). Conclusions. Thus, the identified trends are associated with a decrease in the number of tourist flows, the negative impact of the pandemic on employment and income from tourism activities. International tourism needs two to four years before it returns to the level of 2019.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.186-203
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• 2015

This article attempts to examine both the outcome and future task of the art history research on Central Eurasia, better known under the name of "Silk Road". The term Central Eurasia encompasses Xinjiang Uygur, Tibet, Mongolia, former Soviet Republics, the northwest region of India, Iran and Turkey. The article analyzes the 30-year history of the region's art history research and further presents a desirable direction that the study should move towards. Though short in its research period, the ROK's art history study on Central Eurasia has shown eye-catching achievement in several areas such as the northwest region of India and the Xinjiang Uygur, Dunhwang of China. Two factors allowed for this accomplishment. First was the actual improvement of the work environment, where the scholars were finally able to travel to Central Eurasia and explore the historic sites for themselves since 1990. More important was the 'arena of study' for the next-generation scholars made possible by institutions like The Korean Association for Central Asian Studies and the Center for Central Eurasian Studies. Slowly but consistently, the two academic societies induced scholars' attention towards the field and fostered new experts. Circumstances changed, marking 2012 as the starting point. International academic forums held by the government branches surged in number. The intention behind it was to link the ROK with the Silk Road and ultimately to obtain the "Eurasia initiative". As of now, the public has shown heightened interest in the issue. The academia is subsequently riding on this second "wave of interest" following the first wave in the 1980s. However, increased popularity comes with some negative consequences, and this art history research on Central Eurasia is no exception. There are criticisms regarding the objectivity of recent academic forums. Some argue that the aim of the forums are sternly set most of the times, prohibiting the presenters to voice their own perspectives. Still, this heated attention will definitely play its role as a stepping stone for further development. The academia should commit to fostering rising researchers who will systemically and professionally study the field. This is imperative in order for the Korean culture to successfully communicate with the world and take itself to a new level. Without completing this task, the ROK's art history research on Central Eurasia is likely to remain idle.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.84-107
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• 2018

Cheommojik is a pile cloth, a type of textile whose surface is covered with short piles. The term chaedam was used during the late Joseon dynasty to refer to pile cloth rugs, while the terms yoongjeon, dantong and yangtanja were used in the early twentieth century. Various documents, newspaper articles and photographs confirm that pile cloth rugs were used by the general public as well as the royal family from the late Joseon dynasty onward, and that there were domestic manufacturers of such rugs at that time. This study investigated six pile cloth rugs that were produced after the late Joseon dynasty, five of which feature Persian knots made of cut pile, the other being made with the loop pile method. The cut pile rugs are rectangular in shape and measure between 72-98cm by 150-156cm; and they are decorated in the middle with patterns of butterfly, deer, and tiger or the ten longevity symbols, and along the edges with patterns composed of 卍 symbols. The ground warp of all six rugs are made from cotton yarn, while the ground weft is made of cotton yarn on three pieces, wool on one piece and cotton and viscose rayon. The ground weft yarn from four pieces are Z-twist yarn made with two or more S-twist cotton yarn. Four to six colors were used for the pile weft, all being natural colors except for red. Two or more S- or Z-twist yarn were twisted together in the opposite twist for the pile weft, with the thickness determining the number of threads used. Six or more weft threads were used to make the start and end points of the rug; and the ground warp ends were arranged by tying every four of them together. For the left and right edges, three or more threads were wrapped together into a round stick-like form, and the second and third inner ground warps from the edges were stitched on to the wrapped edge. For the loop pile, loops were made in the direction of the warp; the ground warp and the ground weft may have been made with cotton, the pile warp with wool yarn. An analysis of the components of three rugs was conducted to determine which types of animal hair were used for the pile weft. Despite some inconclusive results, it was revealed that goat hair and fat-tailed sheep hair were used, raising the possibility that various kinds of animal fur were used in the production of pile cloth rugs. The six rugs examined in this study are estimated to have been made between the late 1800s and the early 1900s. Although the manufacturer of the rugs cannot be confirmed, we concluded that the rugs were produced in Korea after referring to the documentation of the domestic production of pile cloth rugs during the aforementioned period and the form and placements of the patterns on the rugs.

• Journal of Life Science
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.747-753
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• 2019

Cognitive decline is characterized by reduced long-/short-term memory and attention span, and increased depression and anxiety. Such decline is associated with various degenerative brain disorders, especially Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD). The increases in elderly populations suffering from cognitive decline create social problems and impose economic burdens, and also pose safety threats; all of these problems have been extensively researched over the past several decades. Possible causes of cognitive decline include metabolic and hormone imbalance, infection, medication abuse, and neuronal changes associated with aging. However, no treatment for cognitive decline is available. In neurodegenerative diseases, changes in the gut microbiota and gut metabolites can alter molecular expression and neurobehavioral symptoms. Changes in the gut microbiota affect memory loss in AD via the downregulation of NMDA receptor expression and increased glutamate levels. Furthermore, the use of probiotics resulted in neurological improvement in an AD model. PD and gut microbiota dysbiosis are linked directly. This interrelationship affected the development of constipation, a secondary symptom in PD. In a PD model, the administration of probiotics prevented neuron death by increasing butyrate levels. Dysfunction of the blood-brain barrier (BBB) has been identified in AD and PD. Increased BBB permeability is also associated with gut microbiota dysbiosis, which led to the destruction of microtubules via systemic inflammation. Notably, metabolites of the gut microbiota may trigger either the development or attenuation of neurodegenerative disease. Here, we discuss the correlation between cognitive decline and the gut microbiota.

• Korean Journal of Labor Studies
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.95-136
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• 2018

As the number of precariats grows, their poor labor rights and working conditions are becoming issues of major concern all over the world but how to represent their interests is still controversial. Basically, the union is the institutional mechanism for representing the labor rights. However, it is difficult for workplaceand enterprise-based unions to fully represent the labor rights of precarious workers. Recently, so-called community unions have emerged in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan as independent organizations representing the rights of non-standard workers. Community unions refer to labor unions which organize precarious workers across firms at the regional level. They are known to be suitable for covering the unemployed, job seekers, indirect employment workers, short-term contract workers, and small-firm workers. In South Korea, since the financial crisis in 1997, a dramatic increase in the number of precariats leads to emergence of new types of trade unions such as the Youth Community Union, the Arbeit Workers' Union, the Artist Social Union and the Korea Musician's Union. They have engaged in various activities to guarantee the labor rights of precariats. Recently, researchers have also tried to identify defining characteristics of these new forms of unionism. To expand research on trade unionism in South Korea, this study compares two different types of community unions: the Youth Community Union and the Arbeit Workers' Union. We believe that this attempt can contribute to the research on the alternative labor movement. For this purpose, this study starts with theoretical discussions on community unions, and compares the Youth Community Union with the Arbeit Workers' Union based on the five characteristics of community unionism: membership and organization structure, the recognition struggle, the type or scope of interest, solidarity with other civic organizations, and the repertoire of resistance strategies. Based on this comparative analysis, this study seeks to foresee the possibility of how community unionism will develop in South Korean in the future.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.11-27
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• 2019

Dementia is major epidemic disease of the 21st century in the world. Dementia is one of the major issues in public health globally. Also in Korea, the estimated prevalence of dementia was 8.7%(0.47 million) in 2010, the number will reach the 1 million mark in 2024, it will become a 15.1%(2.71 million) by 2050. Among Koreans aged 65 or older, 725,000 are estimated to be suffering from dementia in 2017. Against dementia, Korea developed three National Dementia Plans in 2008, 2012, and 2016. The 1st plan was came into effect in 2008 and focused on prevention, early diagnostic, development and coordination of infrastructures and management, and improving awareness. The 2nd plan was launched in 2012, addressed the same priorities but had a stronger focus on supporting family members. In 2012 the Dementia Management Act established a statutory basis for organization of the National Dementia Plans. Under the Dementia Management Act, the government is required to produce a comprehensive plan for dementia every 5 years. The Act also orders that the government should register the dementia patients and collect statistics on epidemiology and the management of the dementia conditions. The Dementia Management Act of Korea required the operation of the National Institute of Dementia and Metropolitan/Provincial Dementia Centers to make and carry out dementia management plans throughout the nation. The Act also mandate to establish Dementia Counselling Centers in every public health center and the National Dementia Helpline. The 3rd National Dementia Plan of 2016 aims to build a dementia friendly community to ensure people with dementia and their carer live well. This plan focus on community-based prevention and management of dementia, convenient and safe diagnosis, treatment, and care for people with dementia, the reduction of the care burden for family care-givers of people with dementia, and support for dementia research through research, statistics and technology. In 2017, Moon's government will introduce the "National Dementia Responsibility System," which guarantees most of the burden caused by dementia. This plan include that the introduction of a ceiling on self-pay for dementia diseases, expansion of the application of dementia care standards through alleviating the support criteria for long-term care insurance for mild dementia, expansion of dementia support centers, expansion of national and public dementia care facilities. In the meantime, Korea has accomplished many accomplishments by establishing many measures related to dementia and promoting related projects in a short time, but there are still many challenges.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-82
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.587-609
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• 2019

Short-and long-term stabilities of bentonite, favored material as buffer in geological repositories for high-level waste were reviewed in this paper in addition to alternative design concepts of buffer to mitigate the thermal load from decay heat of SF (Spent Fuel) and further increase the disposal efficiency. It is generally reported that the irreversible changes in structure, hydraulic behavior, and swelling capacity are produced due to temperature increase and vapor flow between $150{\sim}250^{\circ}C$. Provided that the maximum temperature of bentonite is less than $150^{\circ}C$, however, the effects of temperature on the material, structural, and mineralogical stability seems to be minor. The maximum temperature in disposal system will constrain and determine the amount of waste to be disposed per unit area and be regarded as an important design parameter influencing the availability of disposal site. Thus, it is necessary to identify the effects of high temperature on the performance of buffer and allow for the thermal constraint greater than $100^{\circ}C$. In addition, the development of high-performance EBS (Engineered Barrier System) such as composite bentonite buffer mixed with graphite or silica and multi-layered buffer (i.e., highly thermal-conductive layer or insulating layer) should be taken into account to enhance the disposal efficiency in parallel with the development of multilayer repository. This will contribute to increase of reliability and securing the acceptance of the people with regard to a high-level waste disposal.