• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.2177-2186
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• 2017

The goal of this paper is to provide the specific forecasting steps and to explain how to design the forecasting architecture and training data sets to forecast very short-term wind power when the numerical weather prediction (NWP) is unavailable, and when the sampling periods of the wind power and training data are different. We forecast the very short-term wind power every 15 minutes starting two hours after receiving the most recent measurements up to 40 hours for a total of 38 hours, without using the NWP data but using the historical weather data. Generally, the NWP works as a predictor and can be converted to wind power forecasts through machine learning-based forecasting algorithms. Without the NWP, we can still build the predictor by shifting the historical weather data and apply the machine learning-based algorithms to the shifted weather data. In this process, the sampling intervals of the weather and wind power data are unified. To verify our approaches, we participated in the 2017 wind power forecasting competition held by the European Energy Market conference and ranked sixth. We have shown that the wind power can be accurately forecasted through the data shifting although the NWP is unavailable.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.109-114
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• 2016

PURPOSES : The demand for extending national highways is increasing, but traffic monitoring is hindered because of resource limitations. Hence, this study classified highway segments into 5 types to improve the efficiency of short-term traffic count planning. METHODS : The traffic volume trends of 880 highway segments were classified through R-squared and linear regression analyses; the steadiness of traffic volume trends was evaluated through coefficient of variance (COV), and the normality of the data were determined through the Shapiro-Wilk W-test. RESULTS : Of the 880 segments, 574 segments had relatively low COV and were classified as type 1 segments, and 123 and 64 segments with increasing and decreasing traffic volume trends were classified as type 2 and type 3 segments, respectively; 80 segments that failed the normality test were classified as type 4, and the remaining 39 were classified as type 5 segments. CONCLUSIONS : A theoretical basis for biennial count planning was established. Biennial count is recommended for types 1~4 because their mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) are approximately 10%. For type 5 (MAPE =19.26%), the conventional annual count can be continued. The results of this analysis can reduce the traffic monitoring budget.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.6
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• pp.1041-1045
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• 2010

Short-term electric load forecasting of power systems is essential for the power system stability and the efficient power system operation. An accurate load forecasting scheme improves the power system security and saves some economic losses in power system operations. Due to scarcity of the historical same type of holiday load data, most big electric load forecasting errors occur on load forecasting for the holidays. The fuzzy linear regression model has showed good accuracy for the load forecasting of the holidays. However, it is not good enough to forecast the load of the election day. The concept of the load variation rate for the load forecasting of the election day is introduced. The proposed algorithm shows its good accuracy in that the average percentage error for the short-term 24 hourly loads forecasting of the election days is 2.27%. The accuracy of the proposed 24 hourly loads forecasting of the election days is compared with the fuzzy linear regression method. The proposed method gives much better forecasting accuracy with overall average error of 2.27%, which improved about average error of 2% as compared to the fuzzy linear regression method.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.1940-1949
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• 2015

This paper presents an Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) to solve short-term hydrothermal scheduling (STHS) problem with non-convex fuel cost function and a variety of operational constraints related to hydro and thermal units. The operators of the conventional PSO are dynamically controlled using exponential functions for better exploration and exploitation of the search space. The overall methodology efficiently regulates the velocity of particles during their flight and results in substantial improvement in the conventional PSO. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been tested for STHS of two standard test generating systems while considering several operational constraints like system power balance constraints, power generation limit constraints, reservoir storage volume limit constraints, water discharge rate limit constraints, water dynamic balance constraints, initial and end reservoir storage volume limit constraints, valve-point loading effect, etc. The application results show that the proposed EPSO method is capable to solve the hard combinatorial constraint optimization problems very efficiently.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.1882-1890
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• 2014

This paper proposes an augmented Lagrange Hopfield network (ALHN) based method for solving multi-objective short term fixed head hydrothermal scheduling problem. The main objective of the problem is to minimize both total power generation cost and emissions of $NO_x$, $SO_2$, and $CO_2$ over a scheduling period of one day while satisfying power balance, hydraulic, and generator operating limits constraints. The ALHN method is a combination of augmented Lagrange relaxation and continuous Hopfield neural network where the augmented Lagrange function is directly used as the energy function of the network. For implementation of the ALHN based method for solving the problem, ALHN is implemented for obtaining non-dominated solutions and fuzzy set theory is applied for obtaining the best compromise solution. The proposed method has been tested on different systems with different analyses and the obtained results have been compared to those from other methods available in the literature. The result comparisons have indicated that the proposed method is very efficient for solving the problem with good optimal solution and fast computational time. Therefore, the proposed ALHN can be a very favorable method for solving the multi-objective short term fixed head hydrothermal scheduling problems.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.17-22
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• 2013

Fuzzy linear regression method has been used for short-term load forecasting of the special day in the previous researches. However, considerable load forecasting errors would be occurring if a special day is located on Saturday or Monday. In this paper, a new load forecasting method for the consecutive holidays is proposed with the consideration of the power demand variation rate. In the proposed method, a exponential smoothing model reflecting temperature is used to short-term load forecasting for Sunday during the consecutive holidays and then the loads of the special day during the consecutive holidays is calculated using the hourly power demand variation rate between the previous similar consecutive holidays. The proposed method is tested with 10 cases of the consecutive holidays from 2009 to 2012. Test results show that the average accuracy of the proposed method is improved about 2.96% by comparison with the fuzzy linear regression method.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.51-65
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• 2018

A number of sensing techniques have been implemented for detecting defects in civil infrastructures instead of onsite human inspections in structural health monitoring. However, the issue of faults in sensors has not received much attention. This issue may lead to incorrect interpretation of data and false alarms. To overcome these challenges, this article presents a deep learning-based method with a new architecture of Stateful Long Short Term Memory Neural Networks (S-LSTM NN) for detecting sensor fault without going into details of the fault features. As LSTMs are capable of learning data features automatically, and the proposed method works without an accurate mathematical model. The detection of four types of sensor faults are studied in this paper. Non-stationary acceleration responses of a three-span continuous bridge when under operational conditions are studied. A deep network model is applied to the measured bridge data with estimation to detect the sensor fault. Another set of sensor output data is used to supervise the network parameters and backpropagation algorithm to fine tune the parameters to establish a deep self-coding network model. The response residuals between the true value and the predicted value of the deep S-LSTM network was statistically analyzed to determine the fault threshold of sensor. Experimental study with a cable-stayed bridge further indicated that the proposed method is robust in the detection of the sensor fault.

• International Journal of Vascular Biomedical Engineering
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.14-22
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• 2005

In the present study, our aim is to investigate whether responses to the head-up tilt (HUT) on nonlinear properties of heart rate variability (HRV) in young and elderly subjects are different or not. Thirteen young-healthy subjects ($24.5{\pm}3.7$ years) and 18 old-aged healthy subjects ($74.5{\pm}7.4$ years) participated in this study. An electrocardiogram (ECG) in the supine posture, at $0^{\circ}$, and in the standing posture, at $70^{\circ}$ of head-up tilt, was recorded. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and approximate entropy (ApEn), measures of short-/long-term correlation properties and overall complexity of heart rate (HR) respectively, along with spectral components of HR variability (HRV) were analyzed for both the supine and HUT postures. We observed that the short-term fractal exponent ${\alpha}_1$ increased during HUT posture (F(1, 29) = 39.79, P = 0.000), especially, the young subjects showed a significantly higher values compared to the elderly subjects. ApEn significantly decreased (F(1, 29) = 8.61, P = 0.006) during HUT posture. HUT posture decreased the complexity in HR dynamics and increased short-term fractal exponent values in young subjects but not in elderly subjects. These results imply that there are differences of response to HUT on nonlinear properties between young and elderly subjects.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.1-7
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• 2020

With the increase in cyber attacks, automated IDS using machine learning is being studied. According to recent research, the IDS using the recursive learning model shows high detection performance. However, the simple application of the recursive model may be difficult to reflect the associated session characteristics, as the overlapping session environment may degrade the performance. In this paper, we designed the session management module and applied it to LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) recursive model. For the experiment, the CSE-CIC-IDS 2018 dataset is used and increased the normal session ratio to reduce the association of mal-session. The results show that the proposed model is able to maintain high detection performance even in the environment where session relevance is difficult to find.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.85-93
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• 2006

Since the SMP(System Marginal Price) is a vital factor to the market participants who intend to maximize the their profit and to the ISO(Independent System Operator) who wish to operate the electricity market in a stable sense, the short-term marginal price forecasting should be performed correctly. In an electricity market the short-term market price affects considerably the short-term trading between the market entities. Therefore, the exact forecasting of SMP can influence on the profit of market participants. This paper presents a new methodology for a day-ahead SMP forecasting using ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model based on the time-series method. And also the correction algorithm is proposed to minimize the forecasting error in order to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the SMP forecasting. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method, the case studies are performed using historical data of SMP in 2004 published by KPX(Korea Power Exchange).