• Title/Summary/Keyword: Short-Term

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TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Nonlinearity of Temperature and Load (온도와 부하의 비선형성을 이용한 단기부하예측에서의 TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) 모델)

  • Lee, Gyeong Hun;Lee, Yun Ho;Kim, Jin O
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.50 no.9
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    • pp.399-399
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    • 2001
  • This paper proposes TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) model for short-term load forecasting including temperature variable. In the scatter diagram of daily peak load versus daily high or low temperature, we can find out that the load-temperature relationship has a negative slope in the lower regime and a positive slope in the upper regime due to the heating and cooling load, respectively. TAR model is adequate for analyzing these phenomena since TAR model is a piecewise linear autoregressive model. In this paper, we estimated and forecasted one day-ahead daily peak load by applying TAR model using this load-temperature characteristic in these regimes. The results are compared with those of linear and quadratic regression models.

TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Nonlinearity of Temperature and Load (온도와 부하의 비선형성을 이용한 단기부하예측에서의 TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) 모델)

  • Lee, Gyeong-Hun;Lee, Yun-Ho;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.50 no.9
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    • pp.309-405
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    • 2001
  • This paper proposes TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) model for short-term load forecasting including temperature variable. In the scatter diagram of daily peak load versus daily high or low temperature, we can find out that the load-temperature relationship has a negative slope in the lower regime and a positive slope in the upper regime due to the heating and cooling load, respectively. TAR model is adequate for analyzing these phenomena since TAR model is a piecewise linear autoregressive model. In this paper, we estimated and forecasted one day-ahead daily peak load by applying TAR model using this load-temperature characteristic in these regimes. The results are compared with those of linear and quadratic regression models.

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Integrated Dialogue Analysis using Long Short-Term Memory (Long Short-Term Memory를 이용한 통합 대화 분석)

  • Kim, Min-Kyoung;Kim, Harksoo
    • Annual Conference on Human and Language Technology
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    • 2016.10a
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    • pp.119-121
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    • 2016
  • 최근 사람과 컴퓨터가 대화를 하는 채팅시스템 연구가 활발해지고 있다. 컴퓨터가 사람의 말에 적절한 응답을 하기 위해선 그 의미를 분석할 필요가 있다. 발화에 대한 의미 분석의 기본이 되는 연구로 감정분석과 화행분석이 있다. 그러나 이 둘은 서로 밀접한 연관이 있음에도 불구하고 함께 분석하는 연구가 시도 되지 않았다. 본 연구에서는 Long Short-term Memory(LSTM)를 이용하여 대화체 문장의 감정과 화행, 서술자를 동시에 분석하는 통합 대화 분석모델을 제안한다. 사랑 도메인 데이터를 사용한 실험에서 제안 모델은 감정 58.08%, 화행 82.60%, 서술자 62.74%의 정확도(Accuracy)를 보였다.

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An analysis of the short-term variation of the power line as a communication channel (전력선 통신 채널의 단 구간 변화에 대한 분석)

  • Park, Chong-yeon;Choi, Won-Ho;Jung, Kwang-Hyun
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.27 no.B
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2007
  • The power line channel has time-variant characteristics caused by various kind of electrical devices. This characteristics are synchronized with the main voltage by their own characteristics. The main factors of disturbance are the variation of the channel impedance and noises. In other papers, the synchronous noise modeling has been achieved. But the modeling is not satisfied simultaneously with the time domain and the frequency domain and there are not any discussion about short-term variations of the channel impedance which cause to the signal fading. Therefore, this paper researched to solve problems about the signal fading by analyzing the short-term variation of the channel impedance, and proposed the synchronous noise modeling which is satisfied simultaneously in the time domain and the frequency domain.

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Relationship Analysis of Power Consumption Pattern and Environmental Factor for a Consumer's Short-term Demand Forecast (전력소비자의 단기수요예측을 위한 전력소비패턴과 환경요인과의 관계 분석)

  • Ko, Jong-Min;Song, Jae-Ju;Kim, Young-Il;Yang, Il-Kwon
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.59 no.11
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    • pp.1956-1963
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    • 2010
  • Studies on the development of various energy management programs and real-time bidirectional information infrastructures have been actively conducted to promote the reduction of power demands and CO2 emissions effectively. In the conventional energy management programs, the demand response program that can transition or transfer the power use spontaneously for power prices and other signals has been largely used throughout the inside and outside of the country. For measuring the effect of such demand response program, it is necessary to exactly estimate short-term loads. In this study, the power consumption patterns in both individual and group consumers were analyzed to estimate the exact short-term loads, and the relationship between the actual power consumption and seasonal factors was also analyzed.

Short-term Load Forecasting of Using Data refine for Temperature Characteristics at Jeju Island (온도특성에 대한 데이터 정제를 이용한 제주도의 단기 전력수요예측)

  • Kim, Ki-Su;Ryu, Gu-Hyun;Song, Kyung-Bin
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.9
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    • pp.1695-1699
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    • 2009
  • This paper analyzed the characteristics of the demand of electric power in Jeju by year, day. For this analysis, this research used the correlation between the changes in the temperature and the demand of electric power in summer, and cleaned the data of the characteristics of the temperatures, using the coefficient of correlation as the standard. And it proposed the algorithm of forecasting the short-term electric power demand in Jeju, Therefore, in the case of summer, the data by each cleaned temperature section were used. Based on the data, this paper forecasted the short-term electric power demand in the exponential smoothing method. Through the forecast of the electric power demand, this paper verified the excellence of the proposed technique by comparing with the monthly report of Jeju power system operation result made by Korea Power Exchange-Jeju.

Short-term Electric Load Forecasting Using Data Mining Technique

  • Kim, Cheol-Hong;Koo, Bon-Gil;Park, June-Ho
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.807-813
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we introduce data mining techniques for short-term load forecasting (STLF). First, we use the K-mean algorithm to classify historical load data by season into four patterns. Second, we use the k-NN algorithm to divide the classified data into four patterns for Mondays, other weekdays, Saturdays, and Sundays. The classified data are used to develop a time series forecasting model. We then forecast the hourly load on weekdays and weekends, excluding special holidays. The historical load data are used as inputs for load forecasting. We compare our results with the KEPCO hourly record for 2008 and conclude that our approach is effective.

A Numerical Modelling of Cogeneration Systems for the Short-Term Operation Strategy (열병합발전시스템의 단기운전계획을 위한 수리적모델 수립에 관한 연구)

  • Lyu, Seung-Heon;Lee, Jong-Bum;Kim, Joon-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1993.07a
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    • pp.198-201
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    • 1993
  • In this paper a numerical model of the industrial cogeneration system which have a thermal storage tank is proposed for the short-term operation strategy. Short-term operation costs of towing cycle and bottoming cycle are calculated by using the proposed model of a thermal storage tank. Simulation results of four cases are compared and analyzed each other. By these simulations which are similar to real operation circumstances, the validity of the proposed model is verified.

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A Case Report on Short-term Psychotherapy of the Woman Patient with Nausea and Vomiting (오심과 구토를 호소하는 한 여자환자에 대한 단기정신치료 증례보고)

  • Lee, Jae-Kwang
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.222-231
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    • 1995
  • The author reported a case of short-term dynamic psychotherapy in which relatively good therapeutic results were obtained. And I reviewed several therapeutic factors thought to be important in shot-term dynamic psychotherapy from various literatures. In this case, the frequency of session was limited due to her current reality situations. She had suffered from some adjustmental problems and marital conflict before the onset of the illness. The author could grasp the cental theme of her problems early in treatment period and discussed over it including it's influence on current situation and early childhood with th patient. We also discussed about the relationship between the past and current reality so that she could realize her real problem. At the same time, therapeutic effect was enhanced by family therapy and temporary use of medication.

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Analysis on the Effectiveness of Wind Power Fluctuation Based on Short-term Average Power (단기 평균값을 이용한 풍력발전 출력 평활화 제어 효과 분석)

  • Yoon, Tae Seop;Kim, Eel-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2016.11a
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    • pp.206-207
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    • 2016
  • The intermittent characteristics of wind power (WP) may have negative effect on grid stability, especially in weak grid. WP fluctuation rate can be reduced by using energy storage system (ESS) through charging and discharging. The operation of ESS will decide its losses and lifetime of batteries. From this point, this paper proposes WP smoothing control by using short-term average of WP. In this case, the ESS will only operate at high WP fluctuation rate. Then, the output power of ESS will be estimated by short-term average value. The effectiveness of proposed method will be verified by comparing with conventional method. The simulation results will be carried out by using Matlab program.

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