• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

In an effort to establish adaptive measures for low carbon use and climate change, this study developed storylines for shared socio-economic reference pathways(SSP) and simulated change in land use for each storyline. First, cellular automata modeling was performed using past data, and a transition rule for the local characteristics of each planning area under study was derived by comparing with the results of the base year. Second, three storylines were formulated based on the hypothesized change in land use for the SSP. SSP1, the scenario for sustainability, assumed that the land was developed into a compact city, SSP2 assumed the development of a road through the middle of the land while maintaining the current situation, and SSP3 assumed unsustainable development into a fragmented world. Third, change in land use depending on planning area was predicted by integrating the SSP scenarios with cellular automata(CA) modeling. According to the results of analysis using the SSP scenarios, the urban area ratio increased slightly up to 2020 in SSP1 and up to 2030 in SSP2 and did not change any more subsequently, but it increased continuously until 2050 in SSP3 that assumed low level urban planning. These results on change in land use are expected to contribute towards making reasonable decisions and policies on climate change, and the outcomes of simulation derived from spatial downscaling, if applied to vulnerability assessment, will be useful to set the priority of policies on climate change adaptation.