• Title/Summary/Keyword: Seasonal trend

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Seasonal Abundance and Vertical Distribution of Soil Microarthropods at the Piagol Mt Chiri (지리산 피아골 토양 미소절지동물상의 계절적 변화 및 수직분포)

  • Hong, Yong;Tae-Heung Kim;Young-Chol Oh
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.393-402
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    • 1996
  • Density fluctuations of soil microarthropods at the Piagol, Mt. Chiri was assessed on the basis of 113, 096 individuals collected from March 1993 to February 1994. Of 6 classes, and 18 orders, the Arachnida and Insecta were the most numerous members with abundance of 51.4% and 46.3%, respectively. The mean density of the Acari was $13, 310/m^2$ of microarthropods. The Acari were abundant in autumn and less found in winter and the density fluctuation of the Collembola followed a similar trend. The vertical distribution of the mesofauna revealed from the soil samples taken from the surface to 5 and from 5 to 10 cm in depths was as follows. In 5~10 cm layer. Collembola was numerous with abundance of 54.7%, followed by 40.1% fo Acari and the soil microarthropods reached the highest density peak in spring, while the lowest in winter. Populations concentrated in the 0~5 cm layer as much as 62.2% throughtout the season and 82.4% throughtout the altitudes. The Acari / Collembola (A/C) ratio in the 0~5 cm layer was higher than that in the 5~10 cm.

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Stochastic Multiple Input-Output Model for Extension and Prediction of Monthly Runoff Series (월유출량계열의 확장과 예측을 위한 추계학적 다중 입출력모형)

  • 박상우;전병호
    • Water for future
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 1995
  • This study attempts to develop a stochastic system model for extension and prediction of monthly runoff series in river basins where the observed runoff data are insufficient although there are long-term hydrometeorological records. For this purpose, univariate models of a seasonal ARIMA type are derived from the time series analysis of monthly runoff, monthly precipitation and monthly evaporation data with trend and periodicity. Also, a causual model of multiple input-single output relationship that take monthly precipitation and monthly evaporation as input variables-monthly runoff as output variable is built by the cross-correlation analysis of each series. The performance of the univariate model and the multiple input-output model were examined through comparisons between the historical and the generated monthly runoff series. The results reveals that the multiple input-output model leads to the improved accuracy and wide range of applicability when extension and prediction of monthly runoff series is required.

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Forecasting the Time-Series Data Converged on Time PLOT and Moving Average (Time PLOT과 이동평균 융합 시계열 데이터 예측)

  • Lee, Jun-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2015
  • It is very difficult to predict time-series data. This is because data obtained from the signal having a non-linear characteristic has an uncertainty. In this paper, By differentiating time-series data is the average of the past data under the premise that change depending on what pattern, and find the soft look of time-series change pattern. This paper also apply the probability variables to generalize time-series data having a specific data according to the reflection ratio of the differentiation. The predicted value is estimated by removing cyclic movement and seasonal fluctuation, and reflect the trend by extracting the irregular fluctuation. Predicted value has demonstrated the superiority of the proposed algorithm and compared with the best results by a simple moving average and the moving average.

The Long-term Variation Patterns of Atmospheric Mercury in Seoul, Korea from 1997 to 2002 (서울시 대기 중 수은농도의 장기변동 특성 1997~2002)

  • 김민영;김기현
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.179-189
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    • 2003
  • The concentration of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg) was measured concurrently with relevant environmental parameters from Yang-Jae monitoring station in Seoul during Sept. 1997 to June 2002. Although data collection was disrupted for certain periods, the grand mean concentration of Hg for this five year period was found at 5.32 $\pm$ 3.53 ng m$^{-3}$ (N = 27,170). Because of short resolution of data acquisition, we were able to examine the temporal variability of Hg at varying time scale. The diurnal variability of Hg, when investigated for each of those five years, indicated consistently the dominance of nighttime over daytime. If examined at seasonal scale, Hg level was systematically higher during winter/spring than summer/fall period. The results of this short-term variability were best explained by the combined effects of such factors as meteorological conditions (formation of inversion layer and seasonal changes) and anthropogenic source processes. However, examination of long-term variation Pattern was much more complicated to explain. Thus, extension of our study is needed to diagnose the future direction in long-term trend of Hg behavior.

Analysis of Diurnal and Semidiurnal Cycles of Precipitation over South Korea (한반도 강수의 일주기 및 반일주기 성분 분석)

  • Lee, Gyu-Hwan;Seo, Kyong-Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.475-483
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    • 2008
  • The hourly precipitation data from 1973 to 2007 observed at 60 weather stations over Korea are used to characterize the diurnal and semidiurnal cycles of total precipitation amount, intensity and frequency and examine their spatial patterns and interannual variations. The results show that the diurnal cycle peaks in the morning (03-09LST) and the semidiurnal cycle peaks in the late afternoon (16-20LST). It is found that the spatial variations of the peak phase of diurnal or semidiurnal cycle relative to their corresponding seasonal mean cycle are considerably small (large) for total precipitation amount and intensity (frequency, respectively) in both winter and summer seasons. Also, the diurnal phase variations for individual years relative to the seasonal mean precipitation show the significant interannual variability with dominant periods of 2-5 years for all three elements of precipitation and the slightly decreasing trend in total precipitation amount and intensity. To compare the relative contributions of frequency and intensity to the diurnal and semidiurnal cycles (and their sum) of total precipitation amount, the percentage variance of each cycle of precipitation amount explained by frequency is estimated. The fractional variance accounted for by precipitation intensity is greater than that of frequency for these three cycles. All above analyses suggest that intensity plays a more important role than frequency in the diurnal variations of total precipitation amount.

Seasonal and Spatial Distribution of Trichoderma species in Forest Soils of Mt. Geryongsan (계룡산 산림토양내의 수종 Trichoderma spp.의 분포 특성에 관하여)

  • Rhee, Young-Ha;Hong, Soon-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.157-165
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    • 1984
  • Seasonal and spatial variations in propagule numbers of Trichoderma species were investigated every other month for one year in deciduous and coniferous forest soils and evaluated the relationships of Trichoderma spp. populations to soil environmental factors. The total population of Trichoderma spp. increased until summer and then declined until winter. The yearly mean frequency of Trichoderma spp. exceeded 1.4% of total fungal propagules in two sites. Decreases of absolute an relative propagule numbers of Trichoderma spp. with increasing soil depth were found and variation in Trichoderma spp. propagules caused by differences in soil depth ($0{\sim}50cm$) was greater than that caused by differences in sampling time. The most common species occurring in two sites was T. viride, followed by T. polysporum, T. koningii, and T. hamatum. Individual species of Trichoderma showed diferent abundance trend in accordance with sampling time. T. viride was dorminant from spring to autumn, while T. polysporum dominated over the other speicies in winter. Variations in propagule number of Trichoderma sppp. were principally mediated by the actions of biotic environmental factors rather than by the direct effects of abiotic factors. In multiple-regression analyses, 48% of the total vaiation in Trichoderma spp. propagules in deciduous site could be accounted for by total fungal propagules and soil CMCase actvity. In coniferous site, 65% of total variation could be accounted for by total fungal and bacterial propagules, moisture content and organic carbon content.

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Long-term analysis of tropospheric delay and ambiguity resolution rate of GPS data

  • Kim, Su-Kyung;Bae, Tae-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.30 no.6_2
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    • pp.673-680
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    • 2012
  • Long-term GPS data analysis was performed in order to analyze the seasonal variation of tropospheric delay and the success rate of the ambiguity resolution. For this analysis, a total of 57 stations including 10 IGS stations in East Asia were processed together with double-differenced observables using Bernese GPS Software V5.0. The time span for this study ranges from 2002.0 to 2012.5 (10.5 years). The average baseline length is 339.0 km and the maximum reaches up to 2,000 km. The analysis is focused on two things: the annual variation of the tropospheric delay and the ambiguity resolution rate. The tropospheric delay is closely related to the weather condition, especially relative humidity, therefore it was estimated that the maximum would be in summer, while reaching its minimum in winter with the apparent seasonal variations. On the contrary, however, the success rate of the ambiguity resolution shows the opposite pattern: its maximum was in winter and minimum in summer. The fact seems to be induced by the surrounding conditions; that is, the trees thick with leaves near the GPS antenna interfere with GPS signals in summer. This seems to confirm partly that there is a distinct trend in the decreasing success rate since 2006 because the trees are growing every year. It is necessary to eliminate the factors that degrade the GPS quality and the tropospheric modeling for Korea needs to be studied further.

Seasonal Dynamics of Aquatic Environment and Phytoplankton in Pyeongtaek Reservoir, Korea (평택호에서 수환경과 식물플랑크톤의 계절적 동태)

  • Sin,Jae-Gi
    • ALGAE
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.145-156
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    • 2003
  • Seasonal investigations were conducted to determine the major aquatic environmental factors and the variation of phytoplankton in Pyeongtaek Reservoir in March, June, September, and December 2000. Heavy rainfall mainly occurs from late June to mid-September, and water quality of reservoir was high in the influent zone of stream and riverine zone of reservoir. The biomass of phytoplankton was related to aquatic environmental factors. In particular, its value increased where nutrient concentration was high. Likewise, the increase of turbidity was found to have anthropogenic effects on the varying quantity of phytoplankton. The phytoplankton composition in quantitative survey identified into 43 genera and 71 species. Species numbers of Bacillariophyceae, Cyanophyceae, and Chlorophyceae accounted for 17%, 15%, and 49%, respectively, with the remainder constituting less than 3-7%. The distribution of such phyla also significantly varied according to seasons, accounting for 25%, 37%, 61%, and 14% in March, June, September, and December, respectively. Bacillariophyceae and Chlorophyceae were observed throughout the year, while Cyanophyceae proliferated in June and September. Euglenophyceae and Dinophyceae were prevalent in March and September, while Cryptophyceae occurred in March and December. The succession trend of phytoplankton showed the maximum cell density was followed by Bacillariophyceae (6.8$\times$$10^3$ cells ${\cdot}$ml)$\rightarrow$ Chlorophyceae (3.7$\times$$10^3$ cells ${\cdot}$ml)$\rightarrow$Cyanophyceae (1.3$\times$$10^4$ cells ${\cdot}$ml)$\rightarrow$Cryptophyceae (1.2$\times$$10^3$ cells ${\cdot}$ml). The cell density was the highest in the upstream. Dominant species were composed of Aulacoseira ambigua, Stephanodiscus hantzschii f. tenuis of Bacillariophyceae, Anabaena spiroides var. crassa, Microcystis aeruginosa, Oscillatoria amphibia of Cyanophyceae, Actinastrum hantzschii var. fluviatile, Pediastrum duplex var. reticulatum of Chlorophyceae, Euglena gracilis, Trachelomonas spp. of Euglenophyceae, and Chroomonas spp., Cryptomonas spp. of Cryptophyceae. As a results, seasonal variation of phytoplankton in Pyeongtaek Reservoir was evident in spite of inflow the high concentration of nutrients from watershed streams, because hydrological control and anthropogenic disturbance in reservoir were found to have major effects on the retention time of water.

Optimal Forecasting for Sales at Convenience Stores in Korea Using a Seasonal ARIMA-Intervention Model (계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 한국 편의점 최적 매출예측)

  • Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - During the last two years, convenient stores (CS) are emerging as one of the most fast-growing retail trades in Korea. The goal of this work is to forecast and to analyze sales at CS using ARIMA-Intervention model (IM) and exponential smoothing method (ESM), together with sales at supermarkets in South Korea. Considering that two retail trades above are homogeneous and comparable in size and purchasing items on off-line distribution channel, individual behavior and characteristic can be detected and also relative superiority of future growth can be forecasted. In particular, the rapid growth of sales at CS is regarded as an everlasting external event, or step intervention, so that IM with season variation can be examined. At the same time, Winters ESM can be investigated as an alternative to seasonal ARIMA-IM, on the assumption that the underlying series shows exponentially decreasing weights over time. In case of sales at supermarkets, the marked intervention could not be found over the underlying periods, so that only Winters ESM is considered. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - The dataset of this research is obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (1/2010~7/2016) and Survey of Service Trend of Korea Statistics Administration. This work is exploited time series analyses such as IM, ESM and model-fitting statistics by using TSPLOT, TSMODEL, EXSMOOTH, ARIMA and MODELFIT procedures in SPSS 23.0. Results - By applying seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model to sales at CS, the steep and persisting increase can be expected over the next one year. On the other hand, we expect the rate of sales growth of supermarkets to be lagging and tied up constantly in the next 2016 year. Conclusions - Based on 2017 one-year sales forecasts for CS and supermarkets, we can yield the useful information for the development of CS and also for all retail trades. Future study is needed to analyze sales of popular items individually such as tobacco, banana milk, soju and so on and to get segmented results. Furthermore, we can expand sales forecasts to other retail trades such as department stores, hypermarkets, non-store retailing, so that comprehensive diagnostics can be delivered in the future.

The Determining factors and Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Chemical Oxygen Demand in Jinhae Bay (진해만에 있어서의 COD의 시공간적인 특성 및 결정인자)

  • 김종구;조은일
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.189-195
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    • 1999
  • Determining factors and temporal & spatial characteristics of COD(Chemical Oxygen Demand) at the sea surface in Jinhae bay have been examined by using seasonal data, taken at twenty six stations over the whole bay during 1989~1994 by NERDA. The data have been analyzed in terms of long term means, anomalously large values. Jinhae bay is divided into three regions based on the time mean : mouth of Jinhae bay, inner sea of Masan bay, western sea of Jinhae bay called region 1,2 and 3, respectively. The horizontal distribution of the long term mean of COD at each station is similar to those of nitrogen and phosphorus. Characteristics of whole mean variation in the year shows high range of variation in region 2. It was appear to decreases every year in whole trend. Factors determining seasonal variation in whole COD mean are relative to salinity and nutrient, affected by precipitation in summer. Spatial variation shows high range of fluctuation in region 2 compare to other region. Factors determining of spatial variation of COD was appear to nutrient, affected by pollutant load of land area and bottom sediment. The long term mean of COD at each station is closely related with thats of nutrients. The correlation coefficient between COD and nitrogen, phosphate phosphorus was found to be high as 0.75, 0.78, respectively. Anomalously large COD was observed 14 times at 6 stations. These stations are located in inner sea of Masan bay(Region 2) and Songjeong bay(Region 1). The seasonal frequency of the observed anomalous COD is large in April, and other seasons are much the same.

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