• Title/Summary/Keyword: Seasonal Time Series

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Influence of Driving Routes and Seasonal Conditions to Real-driving NOx Emissions from Light Diesel Vehicles (주행 경로 및 계절의 변화가 소형 경유차의 실제 주행 시 질소산화물 배출량에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Taewoo;Kim, Jiyoung;Park, Junhong;Jeon, Sangzin;Lee, Jongtae;Kim, Jeongsoo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.148-156
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to compare NOx emissions from light duty diesel vehicles measured from on-road tests that conducted under various driving routes and seasonal conditions. We measured real-driving NOx emissions using PEMS, portable emissions measurement system, under the urban, rural and motorway road traffic conditions. On-road tests were repeated at summer, fall and winter season. The accumulated driving distance is more than 1,200 km per each vehicle. Route average NOx emission factors were compared among nine route-season combinations. The emission characteristics of each combinations were investigated using time series mass emission rates and vehicle operation-based emission rates and activities, which is based on U.S. EPA's MOVES model. Most concerned route-season combination is "urban road condition at summer", which shows two to eleven times higher NOx emissions than other combinations. The emission rates and activities under low speed operating conditions should be managed in order to reduce urban-summer NOx. From a NOx control strategy perspective, the exhaust gas recirculation, EGR, is observed to be properly operated under wide range of vehicle driving conditions in Euro-5 vehicles, even if the air conditioner turns on. In high power demanding conditions, the effect of overspeeding could be more critical than that of air conditioner activation.

Trend Analysis of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Above South Korea Over the Last 10 Years

  • Sohn, Dong-Hyo;Cho, Jung-Ho
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.231-238
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    • 2010
  • We analyzed global positioning system (GPS)-derived precipitable water vapor (PWV) trends of the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute 5 stations (Seoul, Daejeon, Mokpo, Milyang, Sokcho) where Korea Meteorological Administration meteorological data can be obtained at the same place. In the least squares analysis, the GPS PWV time series showed consistent positive trends (0.11 mm/year) over South Korea from 2000 to 2009. The annual increase of GPS PWV was comparable with the 0.17 mm/year and 0.02 mm/year from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth Observing Laboratory and Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder, respectively. For seasonal analysis, the increasing tendency was found by 0.05 mm/year, 0.16 mm/year, 0.04 mm/year in spring (March-May), summer (June-August) and winter (December-February), respectively. However, a negative trend (-0.14 mm/year) was seen in autumn (September-November). We examined the relationship between GPS PWV and temperature which is the one of the climatic elements. Two elements trends increased during the same period and the correlation coefficient was about 0.8. Also, we found the temperature rise has increased more GPS PWV and observed a stronger positive trend in summer than in winter. This is characterized by hot humid summer and cold dry winter of Korea climate and depending on the amount of water vapor the air contains at a certain temperature. In addition, it is assumed that GPS PWV positive trend is caused by increasing amount of saturated water vapor due to temperature rise in the Korean Peninsula. In the future, we plan to verify GPS PWV effectiveness as a tool to monitor changes in precipitable water through cause analysis of seasonal trends and indepth/long-term comparative analysis between GPS PWV and other climatic elements.

An Uncertainty Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia (동아시아 기온과 강수의 불확실성 평가)

  • Shin, Jin-Ho;Kim, Min-Ji;Lee, Hyo-Shin;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.299-303
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    • 2008
  • In this study, an uncertainty assessment for surface air temperature(T2m) and precipitation(PCP) over East Asia is carried out. The data simulated by the intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Atmosphere-Ocean coupled general circulation Model (AOGCM) are used to assess the uncertainty. Examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP variabilities shows that spring-summer cold bias and fall warm bias of T2m are found over both East Asia and the Korea peninsula. In contrast, distinctly summer dry bias and winter-spring wet bias of PCP over the Korea peninsula is found. To investigate the PCP seasonal variability over East Asia, the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function(CSEOF) analysis is employed. The CSEOF analysis can extract physical modes (spatio-temporal patterns) and their undulation (PC time series) of PCP, showing the evolution of PCP. A comparison between spatio-temporal patterns of observed and modeled PCP anomalies shows that positive PCP anomalies located in northeastern China (north of Korea) of the multi-model ensemble(MME) cannot explain properly the contribution to summer monsoon rainfalls across Korea and Japan. The uncertainty of modeled PCP indicates that there is disagreement between observed and MME anomalies. The spatio-temporal deviation of the PCP is significantly associated with lower- and upper-level circulations. In particular, lower-level moisture transports from the warm pool of the western Pacific and corresponding moisture convergence significantly contribute to summer rainfalls. These lower- and upper-level circulations physically consistent with PCP give a insight of the reason why differences between modeled and observed PCP occur.

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A Study on the Behaviour of an Earth and Rockfill Dam Due to Reservoir Water (저수변화에 따른 사력댐의 거동 연구)

  • Shin, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2003
  • The behaviour of an earth and rock-fill dam is complicated due to reservoir water and various materials in zoned dams. Different materials with a wide range of permeability and seasonal variation of reservoir water result in the time dependent post-constructional behaviour. In aged dams it is often required to control water level to keep the dams safe. In this case information on the post-constructional dam behaviour is important. However, present geotechnical knowledge does not fully support the occasion. In this study the post-constructional behaviour of a dam is investigated using coupled finite element models for series of idealized water reservoir cases: impoundment, draw down, seasonal fluctuation with different rising and falling speeds. Numerical results were analysed in respect of geotechnical parameters such as load transfer, hydraulic fracturing potential and stress paths. It is shown that the control of water level is an important factor while operating dams.

Subsequent application of self-organizing map and hidden Markov models infer community states of stream benthic macroinvertebrates

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan;Nguyen, Tuyen Van;Heo, Muyoung;Chon, Tae-Soo
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2015
  • Because an ecological community consists of diverse species that vary nonlinearly with environmental variability, its dynamics are complex and difficult to analyze. To investigate temporal variations of benthic macroinvertebrate community, we used the community data that were collected at the sampling site in Baenae Stream near Busan, Korea, which is a clean stream with minimum pollution, from July 2006 to July 2013. First, we used a self-organizing map (SOM) to heuristically derive the states that characterizes the biotic condition of the benthic macroinvertebrate communities in forms of time series data. Next, we applied the hidden Markov model (HMM) to fine-tune the states objectively and to obtain the transition probabilities between the states and the emission probabilities that show the connection of the states with observable events such as the number of species, the diversity measured by Shannon entropy, and the biological water quality index (BMWP). While the number of species apparently addressed the state of the community, the diversity reflected the state changes after the HMM training along with seasonal variations in cyclic manners. The BMWP showed clear characterization of events that correspond to the different states based on the emission probabilities. The environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation also indicated the seasonal and cyclic changes according to the HMM. Though the usage of the HMM alone can guarantee the convergence of the training or the precision of the derived states based on field data in this study, the derivation of the states by the SOM that followed the fine-tuning by the HMM well elucidated the states of the community and could serve as an alternative reference system to reveal the ecological structures in stream communities.

Seasonal Variations of Particle Fluxes in the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica (남극 브랜스필드 해협에서 입자 플럭스 계절변화)

  • Kim, Dong-Seon;Kim, Dong-Yup;Kim, Young-June;Kang, Young-Chul
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.153-166
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    • 2002
  • Particle fluxes were measured by using time-series sediment traps in the Bransfield Strait from December 27th, 1999 to December 26th, 2000. Total mass fluxes showed distinct seasonal variations with high fluxes in the austral summer and low fluxes in the austral winter at a 678m water depth in the eastern Bransfield Strait, while they were high only in January and fairly low in other months at a 960m water depth in the central Bransfield Strait. The reason that total mass fluxes occurred only in January at a 960m water depth in the central Bransfield Strait seems to be the strong current in the surface waters, which leads to a substantial amount of terrestrial materials and locally produced organic matter being advected away from the mooring site. Total mass fluxes were very high from January to October at a 1678m water depth in the eastern Bransfield Strait, while they were high only in January and February at a 1860m water depth in the central Bransfield Strait. The fact that total mass fluxes were higher at the deep water in the both sites than at the intermediate water depth may reflect that a substantial amount of terrestrial and organic materials are laterally transported by strong tidal current from the shallow environments to the deep basins.

Temperature Effects in the Resistivity Monitoring at Embankment Dams (저수지 전기비저항 모니터링에서의 온도효과)

  • Kim, Eun-Mi;Cho, In-Ky;Kim, Ki-Seog;Yong, Hwan-Ho
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.82-93
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    • 2018
  • Resistivity monitoring data at embankment dams are affected by the seasonal temperature variation. Especially when the seasonal temperature variation is large like Korea, the temperature effects may not be ignored in the longterm resistivity monitoring. Therefore, temperature effects can make it difficult to accurately interpret the resistivity monitoring data. In this study, through analyzing the time series of ground temperature collected at an embankment dam, ground temperature variations are calculated approximately. Then, based on the calculated temperature profile with depth, the inverted resistivity model of the embankment dam is corrected to remove the temperature effects. From these corrections, it was confirmed that the temperature effects are significant in the upper, superficial part of the dam, but can be ignored at depth. However, temperature correction based only on the temperature distribution in the dam body cannot remove the temperature effect thoroughly. To overcome this problem, the effect of temperature variation in the reservoir water seems to be incorporated together with the air temperature variation.

A Study on the Forecast of Sales of High Level Convenience Store Products Using System Dynamics - Focused on the Icecup and Cigarette (시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 편의점 상위상품 매출예측에 관한 연구 - 아이스컵 및 담배를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dong-Myung;Park, Sung-Hoon;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to forecast the sales of convenience store flagship products with nonlinear characteristics and time series characteristics. According to the results, the sales of 'Ice Cup' began to increase from March, reached the highest value in summer, especially July and August, and then decreased, revealing a seasonal pattern. Cigarettes showed a seasonal pattern of higher sales in summer and lower sales in winter and was predicted to decrease in sales in the future. This study provides an academic implication in that it focused on the top-selling products that affected an increase in financial performance in a specific convenience store, a method that has been hardly adopted by the existing studies.

Consideration about Resident Participation Activities for Maintenance and Use OPen Space with Community Development in Hachioji New Town

  • Sakaguchi, Jiro
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture International Edition
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    • no.1
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    • pp.150-158
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    • 2001
  • Maintenance open spaces and community development in large scale housing development is one of the most important issues. We(UDC) established a resident participation activity for maintenance and use open space with community development in Hachioji New Town from 1997. The purpose of this study is to establish resident participation activities for maintenance and use open space with community development in Hajichioji New Town, and to clarify the characteristics and to on sider about efficiency of the activity. We established Minamino Shizen-Juku as a methodology for maintenance and use open spaces at the same time Hachioji New Town was opened in 1997. The activity has continued by now in 2001. We conducted questionnaire survey to make sure efficiency and characteristics of the activity past three years. Minamino Shizen-Juku (nature friendly lessons) is a resident participation activity in Hachioji New Town. It was established in 1997 as soon as the new town was opened, this year is fifth since it was started. It has three objects. 1)Maintenance and use woody environment, 2) Community development, 3) Continuation and renewal native culture. And it has general course, three special courses and one extra course were established in the activity. 1) General course is an activity participated all of member. It's included farming experience in the native field and seasonal events. 2) Rice growing and woods maintenance course is rice growing and wild wood maintenance in the park as a series of annual farming activities. 3) Benefaction from farm course is started from planting spring vegetable at Mizukoshi(Leader of Minamino Shezen-Juku)'s field. There is the number of participant limit because of the area of the field. 4) Watching nature course is watching seasonal wild flowers, trees, animals and plants to know about native nature. 5) Extra program is programmed to know about native history and tradition. It's planned including participant's ideas. Not member can participate in this course too.

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X11ARIMA Procedure (한국형 X11ARIMA 프로시져에 관한 연구)

  • 박유성;최현희
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.335-350
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    • 1998
  • X11ARIMA is established on the basis of X11 which is one of smoothing approach in time series area and this procedure was introduced by Bureau of Census of United States and developed by Dagum(1975). This procedure had been updated and adjusted by Dagum(1988) with 174 economic index of North America and has been used until nowadays. Recently, X12ARIMA procedure has been studied by William Bell et.al. (1995) and Chen. & Findly(1995) whose approaches adapt adjusting outliers, Trend-change effects, seasonal effect, arid Calender effect. However, both of these procedures were implemented for correct adjusting the economic index of North America. This article starts with providing some appropriate and effective ARIMA model for 102 indexes produced by national statistical office in Korea; which consists of production(21), shipping(27), stock(27), and operating rate index(21). And a reasonable smoothing method will be proposed to reflect the specificity of Korean economy using several moving average model. In addition, Sulnal(lunar happy new year) and Chusuk effects will be extracted from the indexes above and both of effects reflect contribution of lunar calender effect. Finally, we will discuss an alternative way to estimate holiday effect which is similar to X12ARIMA procedure in concept of using both of ARIMA model and Regression model for the best fitness.

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