• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2011.05a
• /
• pp.351-351
• /
• 2011

최근 지구온난화와 더불어 이상기후가 대두됨에 따라 기상 예측이 더욱더 중요시되고 있다. 또한 이전부터 가뭄 및 홍수와 같은 기상현상으로 인한 피해 사례가 빈번하였으며, 이로 인하여 물 관리의 어려움을 겪고 있다. 한 예로 이상기후가 유난히 잦았던 2010년 여름철 경우 평년보다 발달한 북태평양고기압의 영향으로 여름철 92일 가운데 81일의 전국 평균기온이 평년보다 높게 나타났다. 또한 강우 일수가 평년에 비해 7.4일 많은 44.2일을 기록하였으며, 국지성 집중호우 사례가 빈번하였다. 또한 8월 9일 발생한 태풍 `뎬무'를 포함해서 한 달 동안 3개의 태풍이 한반도에 영향을 끼치는 이례적인 사례가 발생하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 이러한 기상재해에 따른 물 관리를 장기적으로 대비하고자 고해상도 전지구 모델 GME를 이용하여 2010년 여름철 강수 예측을 실시하였다. 강수 예측에 사용된 전지구 모델 GME는 기존의 카테시안 격자체계를 가진 모델과 달리 전구를 삼각형으로 구성된 20면체로 격자화 한 Icosahedral-hexagonal grid 격자체계로 구성되어 있어, 해상도 증가에 용이할 뿐만 아니라, HPC(High Performance Computing)환경에서 효율성이 높은 장점을 가지고 있다. 본 계절 예측을 수행함에 있어 발생하는 잡음을 최소화하고자, Time-lag 기법을 이용하여 5개의 앙상블 멤버로 구성되어있으며, 이를 비교 분석하기위해 Climatology를 이용하여 총 10개의 앙상블 멤버로 규준실험을 수행하였다. 선행 연구에 따르면 1개월 이상의 장기 적분의 경우 초기조건보다 외부 강제력이 더 중요한 역할을 한다고 연구된 바 있다. (Yang et al., 1998) 특히 계절 변동성의 경우 대기-해양간의 상호작용에 의해 지배되며, 이를 고려하여 본 연구는 해수면 온도를 경계 자료로 사용하여 계절 예측을 수행하였다. 앞서 말한 실험 계획을 바탕으로 하여 나온 결과를 통해 동아시아지역 및 한반도 도별 강수 및 온도 변수에 대해 순별 및 월별 카테고리맵 분석을 실시하여 한눈에 보기 쉽게 나타냈다. 또한 주요 도시별 강수량 및 온도의 시계열 분석을 실시하여 시간이 지남에 따라 나타나는 변동성을 확인하였다. 계절 예측 결과에서 온도의 경우 평년보다 높게 나타났으며, 이는 실제 온도 예측과도 유사한 패턴을 가졌다, 강수의 경우 7월부터 8월 중순까지 평년보다 다소 적게 모의되었으며, 8월 하순경 회복하는 것으로 예측하였다. 따라서 본 계절 강수 예측은 다소 역학 모델이 가지는 한계를 가지고 있으나, 실제와 비교하여 어느 정도의 경향성이나 패턴에 있어 유사성을 보임을 확인하였으며, 이를 장기적 차원의 물관리를 함에 있어 참고 및 활용 가능할 것으로 예상한다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
• /
• v.27 no.8
• /
• pp.813-821
• /
• 2005

This paper presents a modeling study of thermal dynamics and turbid current in the Obong Lake, Kangreung. The lake formed by the artificial dam in 1983 for agricultural water supply, is currently under consideration of reconstruction in order to expand the volume of reservoir for water supply and flood control in downstream area. The US Army Corps of Engineers' CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water quality model, was applied to the lake after reconstruction as well as the present lake. The model calibration and verification were conducted against surface water levels and temperature of the lake measured during the years of 2001 and 2003. The model results showed a good agreement with fold measurements both in calibration and verification. Utilizing the validated model, an impact of dam reconstruction on vertical temperature and hydrodynamics were predicted. The model results showed that steep temperature gradient between epilimnion and hypolimnion would be formed during summer, along with extension of cold deep water after reconstruction. During winter and spring seasons, however, the vertical temperature profiles was predicted to be quite similar both before and after reconstruction. This results indicated that thermal stratification would become stronger during summer and stay longer after dam reconstruction. From the examination of predicted water movements, it was noticed that the upstream turbid current would infiltrate into the interface between metalimnion and hypolimnion and then suspended solids would slowly settle down to the bottom before reconstruction. After reconstruction, however, it was shown that the upstream turbid current would stay longer in metalimnion with similar density due to strong stratification. The model also predicted that dam reconstruction would make suspended solids near the dam location significantly decrease.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.200-206
• /
• 2013

Fourier analysis and a wavelet method were carried out to elucidate the characteristics of tidal residual components in coastal waters. The result of Fourier analysis shows tide-induced and monsoon-induced residuals are conspicuous at the short period and mid period, respectively. The tidal residuals were decomposed by period from 3 hours to 8 months and the characteristics of their components were shown by reconstituting them with short periods less than 24 hours, mid-periods between 1 day and 16 days and long periods longer than 1 month. The tidal residuals in the short period, i.e., tide-induced components, being based on the tidal elevation prediction errors, appear in the West Sea with high tidal ranges and do not have much seasonal fluctuation. Additionally, the period of typhoon induced surge ranges more or less than 12 hours. The mid-period components were clearly generated mainly in the West Sea during the winter and largely affected by monsoon. Accordingly, the pure surge height components were concentrated on the mid-period and had clear features for each coastal waters. The long period components show similar characteristics at all stations and are considered to stem from variations of mean sea levels.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.15 no.8
• /
• pp.701-718
• /
• 2006

The average ratio of the daily UV-B to total solar (75) irradiance at Busan (35.23$^{\circ}$N, 129.07$^{\circ}$E) in Korea is found as 0.11%. There is also a high exponential relationship between hourly UV-B and total solar irradiance: UV-B=exp (a$\times$(75-b))(R$^2$=0.93). The daily variation of total ozone is compared with the UV-B irradiance at Pohang (36.03$^{\circ}$N, 129.40$^{\circ}$E) in Korea using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data during the period of May to July in 2005. The total ozone (TO) has been maintained to a decreasing trend since 1979, which leading to a negative correlation with the ground-level UV-B irradiance doting the given period of cloudless day: UV-B=239.23-0.056 TO (R$^2$=0.52). The statistical predictions of daily total ozone are analyzed by using the data of the Brewer spectrophotometer and TOMS in East Asia including the Korean peninsula. The long-term monthly averages of total ozone using the multiplicative seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model are used to predict the hourly mean UV-B irradiance by interpolating the daily mean total ozone far the predicting period. We also can predict the next day's total ozone by using regression models based on the present day's total ozone by TOMS and the next day's predicted maximum air temperature by the Meteorological Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5). These predicted and observed total ozone amounts are used to input data of the parameterization model (PM) of hourly UV-B irradiance. The PM of UV-B irradiance is based on the main parameters such as cloudiness, solar zenith angle, total ozone, opacity of aerosols, altitude, and surface albedo. The input data for the model requires daily total ozone, hourly amount and type of cloud, visibility and air pressure. To simplify cloud effects in the model, the constant cloud transmittance are used. For example, the correlation coefficient of the PM using these cloud transmissivities is shown high in more than 0.91 for cloudy days in Busan, and the relative mean bias error (RMBE) and the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) are less than 21% and 27%, respectively. In this study, the daily variations of calculated and predicted UV-B irradiance are presented in high correlation coefficients of more than 0.86 at each monitoring site of the Korean peninsula as well as East Asia. The RMBE is within 10% of the mean measured hourly irradiance, and the RRMSE is within 15% for hourly irradiance, respectively. Although errors are present in cloud amounts and total ozone, the results are still acceptable.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.143-154
• /
• 2012

As demand of water resources and attentions to changes in climate (e.g., due to ENSO) increase, long/short term prediction of precipitation is getting necessary in water planning. This research evaluated the ability of MM5 to predict precipitation in the Tampa Bay region over 23 year period from 1986 to 2008. Additionally MM5 results were statistically bias-corrected using observation data at 33 stations over the study area using CDF-mapping approach and evaluated comparing to raw results for each ENSO phase (i.e., El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a). The bias-corrected model results accurately reproduced the monthly mean point precipitation values. Areal average daily/monthly precipitation predictions estimated using block-kriging algorithm showed fairly high accuracy with mean error of daily precipitation, 0.8 mm and mean error of monthly precipitation, 7.1 mm. The results evaluated according to ENSO phase showed that the accuracy in model output varies with the seasons and ENSO phases. Reasons for low predictions skills and alternatives for simulation improvement are discussed. A comprehensive evaluation including sensitivity to physics schemes, boundary conditions reanalysis products and updating land use maps is suggested to enhance model performance. We believe that the outcome of this research guides to a better implementation of regional climate modeling tools in water management at regional/seasonal scale.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.51 no.5
• /
• pp.425-438
• /
• 2018

Existing studies that analyze the causes and effects of water circulation use mostly rainfall - runoff models, which requires much effort in model development, calibration and verification. In this study, hydrological sensitivity analysis which can separate quantitatively the impacts by natural factors and anthropogenic factor was applied to the Hwacheon dam upper basin from 1967 to 2017. As a result of using various variable change point detection methods, 1999 was detected as a statistically significant change point. Especially, based on the hydrological sensitivity analysis using 5 Budyko based functions, it was estimated that the average inflow reduction amount by Imnam dam construction was $1.890\;billion\;m^3/year$. This results in this study was slightly larger than the those by existing researchers due to increase of rainfall and decrease of Hwacheon dam inflow. In future, it was suggested that effective water management measures were needed to resolve theses problems. Especially, it can be suggested that the monthly or seasonal analysis should be performed and also the prediction of discharge for future climate change should be considered to establish resonable measures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.42 no.3
• /
• pp.213-225
• /
• 2009

A stationary Markov chain model is a stochastic process with the Markov property. Having the Markov property means that, given the present state, future states are independent of the past states. The Markov chain model has been widely used for water resources design as a main tool. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical properties remain the same for all times. Hence, the stationary Markov chain model basically can not consider the changes of mean or variance. In this regard, a primary objective of this study is to develop a model which is able to make use of exogenous variables. The regression based link functions are employed to dynamically update model parameters given the exogenous variables, and the model parameters are estimated by canonical correlation analysis. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at Seoul station having 46 years data from 1961 to 2006. The model shows a capability to reproduce daily and seasonal characteristics simultaneously. Therefore, the proposed model can be used as a short or mid-term prediction tool if elaborate GCM forecasts are used as a predictor. Also, the nonstationary Markov chain model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are provided as inputs.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.40 no.3
• /
• pp.439-448
• /
• 2007

The purpose of this study was to investigate the seasonal variations of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju of the Han River system and to suggest SOD values as parameters for the water quality prediction models of two lakes. SOD was measured at laboratory using sediment collected at 2 sites in Lake Paldang from June to November and at 4 sites in Lake Chungju from May to November in 2005, respectively. It was found from the laboratory test that the SOD in Lake Paldang ranged from 337.8 to 881.0 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$ and in Lake Chungju ranged from 143.0 to 969.1 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$. The SOD of Lake Paldang showed similar variations to the content of organic matter of sediment. The SOD of Lake Chungju was positively correlated with temperature (r=0.78, p<0.01), $PO_4-P(r=0.79,\;p<0.01)$, TP (r=0.55, p<0.05), DTP (r=0.55, p<0.05), $NO_3-N$ (r=(0.72, p<0.01) of hypolimnetic water. These results indicate that the SOD of Lake Paldang was affected by the content and origin of organic matter of sediment and the SOD of Lake Chungju was closely correlated with physical and chemical factors.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.34 no.6_2
• /
• pp.1179-1192
• /
• 2018

In order to detect the Antarctic Polar Front (PF) among the main fronts in the Southern Ocean, this study is based on the combinations of satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and height (SSH) observations. For accurate PF detection, we classified the signals as front or non-front grids based on the Bayesian decision theory from daily SST and SSH datasets, and then spatio-temporal synthesis has been performed to remove primary noises and to supplement geographical connectivity of the front grids. In addition, sea ice and coastal masking were employed in order to remove the noise that still remains even after performing the processes and morphology operations. Finally, we selected only the southernmost grids, which can be considered as fronts and determined as the monthly PF by a linear smoothing spline optimization method. The mean positions of PF in this study are very similar to those of the PFs reported by the previous studies, and it is likely to be well represents PF formation along the bottom topography known as one of the major influences of the PF maintenance. The seasonal variation in the positions of PF is high in the Ross Sea sector (${\sim}180^{\circ}W$), and Australia sector ($120^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$), and these variations are quite similar to the previous studies. Therefore, it is expected that the detection approach for the PF position applied in this study and the final composite have a value that can be used in related research to be carried out on the long term time-scale.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.30 no.5B
• /
• pp.437-444
• /
• 2010

Soil moisture has been recognized as the essential parameter when understanding the complicated relationship between land surface and atmosphere in water and energy recycling system. It has been generally known that it is related with the temperature, wind, evaporation dependent on soil properties, transpiration due to vegetations and other constituents. There is, however, little research concerned about the relationship between soil moisture and these constitutes, thus it is needed to investigate it in detail. We estimated the soil moisture and then compared with field data using the hydrometerological data such as atmospheric temperature, specific humidity, and wind obtained from the Flux tower in Selmacheon, Korea. In the winter season, subterranean temperature showed highly positive correlation with soil moisture while it was negatively correlated from the spring to the fall. Estimation of seasonal soil moisture was compared with field measurements with the correlation of determination, R=0.82, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.96 for spring, summer, fall, and winter, respectively. Comprehensive relationship from this study can supply useful information about the downscaling of soil moisture with relatively large spatial resolutions, and will help to deepen the understanding of the water and energy recycling on the earth's surface.