• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.397-402
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• 2013

In super-tall building construction projects, schedule risk factors which vertically change and are not found in the low and middle-rise building construction influence duration of a project by vertical attribute; and it makes hard to estimate activity or overall duration of a construction project. However, the existing duration estimating methods, that are based on quantity and productivity assuming activities of the same work item have the same risk and duration regardless of operation space, are not able to consider the schedule risk factors which change by the altitude of operation space. Therefore, in order to advance accuracy of duration estimation of super-tall building projects, the degree of changes of these risk factors according to altitude should be analyzed and incorporated into a duration estimating method. This research proposes a simulation model using Monte Carlo method for estimating activity duration incorporating schedule risk factors by weather conditions in a super-tall building. The research process is as follows. Firstly, the schedule risk factors in super-tall building are identified through literature and expert reviews, and occurrence of non-working days at high altitude by weather condition is identified as one of the critical schedule risk factors. Secondly, a calculating method of the vertical distributions of the weather factors such as temperature and wind speed is analyzed through literature reviews. Then, a probability distribution of the weather factors is developed using the weather database of the past decade. Thirdly, a simulation model and algorithms for estimating non-working days and duration of each activity is developed using Monte-Carlo method. Finally, sensitivity analysis and a case study are carried out for the validation of the proposed model.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.669-676
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• 2018

건설공사에서 공정관리는 공사 기간을 결정하는 중요한 단계이나, 설계단계에서 작업불가능 일수 예측 및 산정이 제대로 이루어지지 않아 예정공기와 실행공기의 차이가 발생하고 있다. 이러한 차이를 최소화하기 위하여, 본 논문에서는 공정계획 수립 시 실제에 가장 근접하는 방법으로 추석 및 구정연휴를 휴무일에 반영한 작업불가능 일수 산정방법과, 주요공종별 특성분석을 통한 작업가능일수 산정방법을 제시하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 주요단위공종에 대한 공기산정시 작업불가능 일수가 포함된 최적의 단위공기 산정방법을 제안하였다. 같은 현장 동일공사에 대한 기존 방법과 개선된 방법의 보정계수를 적용하여 소요작업 일수를 산출한바 개선된 방법이 실작업일수 기준으로는 22일(9.1%) 단축됨을 확인하였으며, 공종별 작업소요일수 기준(안)을 수원지역 개착식 공동구 공사에 대하여 적용 전과 후의 차이를 비교하였다. 기준(안) 적용 전 공사일수는 총 304일 이었으나, 기준(안) 적용 후 공사일 수는 총 421일로 설계단계에서 공정계획의 중요성을 예로 확인하였다. 본 연구 결과는 그동안 현장에서 관행적으로 시행되어 오던 실 작업일수 계산과 공정표상 작업일수의 불일치로 인한 공정지연을 방지하고 보다 실제에 근접한 공정계획 수립에 도움이 될 것으로 판단한다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.346-352
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• 2006

Objectives: The purposes of this study were to propose a screening schedule for the early detection of breast cancer among Korean women, as based on the statistical model, and to compare the efficacy of the proposed screening schedule with the current recommendations. Methods: The development of the screening schedule for breast cancer closely followed the work of Lee and Zelen (1998). We calculated the age-specific breast cancer incidence rate from the Korea Central Cancer Registry (2003), and then we estimated the scheduling of periodic examinations for the early detection of breast cancer, using mammography, and based on the threshold method. The efficacy of the derived screening schedule was evaluated by the schedule sensitivity. Results: For estimating the screening schedule threshold method, we set the threshold value as the probability of being in the preclinical stage at age 35, the sensitivity of mammography as 0.9 and the mean sojourn time in the preclinical stage as 4 years. This method generated 14 examinations within the age interval [40, 69] of 40.0, 41.3, 42.7, 44.1, 45.4, 46.7, 48.0, 49.3, 51.0, 53.2, 55.3, 57.1, 59.0 and 63.6 years, and the schedule sensitivity was 75.4%. The proposed screening schedule detected 85.2% (74.5/87.4) of the cases that could have been detected by annual screening, but it required only about 48.7% (14.0/30.0) of the total number of examinations. We also examined the threshold screening schedules for a range of sensitivities of mammography and the mean sojourn time in the preclinical stage. Conclusions: The proposed screening schedule for breast cancer with using the threshold method will be helpful to provide guidelines for a public health program for choosing an effective screening schedule for breast cancer among Korean women.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제28권5D호
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• pp.685-694
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• 2008

최근의 건설공사는 복잡한 공정으로 이루어진 대형공사가 점차 증가되고 있다. 이에 따라 클레임 발생 빈도가 증가하고 있으며 이 중에서 공기지연을 사유로 한 클레임은 가장 많은 비중을 차지하고 있다. 이를 해결하기 위하여 공기지연사유를 분석하여 책임일수를 산정하는 기법들이 국내외에서 다양하게 연구되고 있으며, 복잡한 지연 분석과정을 자동화하여 책임일수 산정결과를 손쉽게 도출할 수 있는 시스템 개발도 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 신뢰성이 있는 시간경과에 따른 분석방법을 기반으로 결과론적 분석방법과 단축일수를 고려한 방법론을 도출하였다. 이를 바탕으로 책임일수 산정 시스템을 구축하고 사례 데이터를 적용하여 실제 분석정보와 비교함으로써 활용성을 검증하였다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.9-16
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• 2016

The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2017년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.152-153
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• 2017

In the construction site, it is necessary to estimate the compressive strength of concrete in order to adjust the demolding time of the form, and establish and adjust the construction schedule. The compressive strength of concrete is determined by various influencing factors. However, the conventional method for estimating the compressive strength of concrete has been suggested by considering only 1 to 3 specific influential factors as variables. In this study, six influential factors (Water, Cement, Fly ash, Blast furnace slag, Curing temperature, and humidity) of papers opened for 10 years were collected at three conferences in order to know the various correlations among data and the tendency of data. After using algorithm of various methods of machine learning techniques, we selected the most suitable regression analysis model for estimating the compressive strength.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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• pp.256-261
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• 2011

Labor productivity is a significant factor related to control time, cost, and quality. Many researchers have developed models to define method of measuring the relationship between productivity and various constraints such as the size of working area, maximum working hours, and the crew composition. Most of the previous research has focused on estimating productivity; however, this research concentrates on estimating labor productivity and developing time and cost data for repetitive concrete pouring activity. In Korea, "Standard Estimating" only contains the average productivity data of the construction industry, and it is difficult to predict the time and cost of any particular project; hence, there are some errors in estimating duration and cost for individual activity and project. To address these issues, this research collects data, measures productivity, and develops time and cost data using labor productivity based on field conditions from the collected data. A probabilistic approach is also proposed to develop data. A case study is performed to validate this process using actual data collected from construction sites and it is possible that the result will be used as the EVMS baseline of cost management and schedule management.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1839-1850
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• 2009

철도시스템은 일반열차(각종 여객열차, 화물열차), 고속열차(KTX), 광역전철 급행열차 (EMU) 등 다양한 종류의 열차가 혼용되고 있는 대중교통시스템이다. 철도시스템은 공시된 시간표에 의하여 열차가 운행되며, 안전, 정확, 신속, 쾌적한 서비스률 제공하는 산업이다. 본 연구의 목적은 기존 열차의 속도향상과 다양화률 반영하여 보다 현실적인 선로용량 산정방식을 제시하고 검증하는 것이다. 본 논문은 이론식에 의한 선로용량과 철도운영기관의 실용용량과의 차이를 최소화 하는데 역점을 두었다. 이를 위해 노선선형에 대한 TPS 시행, 운전방식과 열차제어방식 및 선호시스템 등을 고려한 새로운 철도용량 개념을 도입하였다. 실용 Dia 예시를 통해 새로운 선로용량산정방식의 결과를 검증하였다.

• 경영과학
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.143-161
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• 1996

For an industry, production capacity is defined as the maximum level of output that plants can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate machinery and equipment in place. Such capacity is one of the important and basic due to measure, manage and evaluate the production performance and ability of any industrial bodies. However, the estimating methods now in use in Korea are seemed far from the definition above. And there are not any standard estimating method suggested even in the same sort of manufacturing and also no applicable theory for objective and exact measurement. Thus, in this paper, a new measuring model is suggested as standard and supporting theories are developed for general measurement purpose to any manufacturing industries.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.623-630
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• 2009

한국철도시스템은 일반열차(각종 여객열차, 화물열차), 고속열차(KTX), 광역전철 급행열차(EMU) 등 다양한 종류의 열차가 사용되는 대중교통시스템이다. 철도시스템의 특징은 공시된 시간표에 의하여 열차가 운행되며, 안전, 정확, 신속, 쾌적한 서비스를 제곱한다는 것이다. 본 연구의 목적은 기존 열차의 속도향상과 다양화를 반영하여 보다 현실적인 선로용량 산정방식을 제시하고 검증하는 것이다. 본 논문은 이론식에 근거한 선로용량과 철도운영기관의 실용용량과의 차이를 최소화 하는데 역점을 두었다. 이를 위해 노선선형에 대한 TPS 시행, 운전방식과 열차제어방식 및 신호시스템 등을 고려한 새로운 철도용량 개념을 도입하였다. 실용Dia예시를 통해 새로운 선로용량산정방식의 결과를 검증하였다.