• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제41권2호
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• pp.107-112
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• 2008

To evaluate uncertainty and risk in biological reference points, we applied a bootstrapping method and a Bayesian procedure to estimate the related confidence intervals. Here we provide an example of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of turban shell, Batillus cornutus, estimated by the Schaefer and Fox models. Fitting the time series of catch and effort from 1968 to 2006 showed that the Fox model performs better than the Schaefer model. The estimated MSY and its bootstrap percentile confidence interval (CI) at ${\alpha}=0.05$ were 1,680 (1,420-1,950) tons for the Fox model and 2,170 (1,860-2,500) tons for the Schaefer model. The CIs estimated by the Bayesian approach gave similar ranges: 1,710 (1,450-2,000) tons for the Fox model and 2,230 (1,760-2,930) tons for the Schaefer model. Because uncertainty in effort and catch data is believed to be greater for earlier years, we evaluated the influence of sequentially excluding old data points by varying the first year of the time series from 1968 to 1992 to run 'backward' bootstrap resampling. The results showed that the means and upper 2.5% confidence limit (CL) of MSY varied greatly depending on the first year chosen whereas the lower 2.5% CL was robust against the arbitrary selection of data, especially for the Schaefer model. We demonstrated that the bootstrap and Bayesian approach could be useful in precautionary fisheries management, and we advise that the lower 2.5% CL derived by the Fox model is robust and a better biological reference point for the turban shells of Jeju Island.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.157-165
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• 2009

The study examined overuse of the fishery resource. Influence of fishing activity was estimated by application of Schaefer model's. Fishing efforts that produced the maximum sustainable yield were determined in the model, allowing the effect of overfishing to be assessed. In the model, a wide variety of fish species as well as crustaceans and shellfish were susceptible to overfishing, while mollusks were not. Overfishing by modern techniques exacted a greater toll than more traditional methods. The results of the modeling study suggest that the 'Buy bag' input-control system of fisheries resource management warrants consideration, as does modernization, expansion and strengthening of self-control management of the fishery resource. Finally, more effective efforts in dissemination of policy information and education concerning the fishery resource are needed.

• 한국해양학회지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.75-77
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• 1973

1. 이용가능한 자료를 분석해 본 결과 우리나라 참조기의 평형어획곡선은 Schaefer model 보다 정방향으로 기울어져 있는 것으로 나타났다. 2. 시도해 본 여러 m치 가운데 m치가 0.2일 때 본연구에서 취급한 자료범위내에서는 가장 잘 맞는 평형어획곡선을 나타냈다. 3. m치가 0.2일때의 최대평형어획량은 37,306M/T로 나타났으며 1971년도의 흉어현상은 최대평형어획량을 훨씬 상회하는 1968년도의 어획량(45,392M/T)에 기인하는 것이 아닌가 추리된다.

• 환경생물
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.378-385
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• 2002

가막만 양식 참굴의 정장양상을 모델화 하기 위해 1997년 3월부터 1998년 5월가지 양식장에서 무작위 채집된 총 9,208개체의 각장 및 습중량을 조사하였으며, 참굴 양식장의 환경용량을 추정하기 위하여 1985년부터 2000년까지의 단위면적 당 생산량과 시설대수를 조사하였다. 참굴의 성장모델 추정에는 Bertalanlffy 성장식, 계절변동을 고려한 Bertalanffy 성장식과 일반화된 Schnute and Richards 성장식이 사용되었고, 환경용량의 추정을 위해서는 Schaefer와 Fox의 잉여 생산량 모델들이 사용되었다. 추정된 길이 성장모델은 Bertalanffy모델을 적용하였을 때 보다 일반화된 Schnute and Richards 성장식을 적용했을 때 적합도가 높았다. 추정된 환경용량은 Schaefer모델에서 $21.1\;7ton\;ha^{-1}$, Fox모델에서는 1$17.7\;ton\;ha^{-1}$, 로 2000년 현재의 단위면적 당 생산량 $26.1\;ton\;ha^{-1}$, 보다 낮았으나 환경용량을 생산하는 시설 대수는 8대$(ha^{-1})$로 2000년 현재의 7.8대$(ha^{-1})$와 유사한 값을 보였다.

• 융합신호처리학회 학술대회논문집
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• 한국신호처리시스템학회 2000년도 하계종합학술대회논문집
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• pp.349-352
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• 2000

본 논문은 소프트웨어-인간공학적 원칙(Soft-ware-Ergonomic principles)이 어떻게 사용자 우호적 HCI 디자인에 있어서 효율적으로 기여할 수 있는가를 보여준다. 다양한 실증적 연구를 통하여 우리는 하나의 이론적 모델(WOB-Model)을 만들었으며, 이 모델은 다수의 시스템 개발에 적용되어 그 가치가 인정되었다. 본 모델에 기초하여 디자인 된 시스템을 가지고 행한 사용자테스트(User tests)는 소프트웨어시스템에서 일반적으로 자주 나타나는(Usability pro-blems)가 없어 질 수 있음을 보여 주었다.

• 융합신호처리학회논문지
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.80-87
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• 2001

본 논문은 소프트웨어-인간공학적 원칙 (Software-Ergonomic principles)이 어떻게 사용자 우호적 HCI(Human-Computer Interaction) 디자인에 있어서 효율적으로 기여할 수 있는가를 보여준다. 다양한 실증적 연구를 통하여 우리는 하나의 이론적 모델(WOB-Model)을 만들었으며, 이 모델은 다수의 시스템 개발에 적용되어 그 가치가 인정되었다. 본 모델에 기초하여 디자인 된 시스템을 가지고 행한 사용자테스트는 소프트웨어시스템에서 일반적으로 자주 나타나는 사용상의 문제점이 없어 질 수 있음을 보여주었다.

• 수산해양교육연구
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.19-30
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• 2006

For fishery stock assessment and optimum sustainable yield of anchovy in Korea, surplus production(SP) models and a maximum entropy(ME) model are employed in this paper. For determining appropriate models, five traditional SP models-Schaefer model, Schnute model, Walters and Hilborn model, Fox model, and Clarke, Yoshimoto and Pooley (CYP) model- are tested for effort and catch data of anchovy that occupies 7% in the total fisheries landings of Korea. Only CYP model of five SP models fits statistically significant at the 10% level. Estimated intrinsic growth rates are similar in both CYP and ME models, while environmental carrying capacity of the ME model is quite greater than that of the CYP model. In addition, the estimated maximum sustainable yield(MSY), 213,287 tons in the ME model is slightly higher than that of CYP model (198,364 tons). Biomass for MSY in the ME model, however, is calculated 651,000 tons which is considerably greater than that of the CYP model (322,881 tons). It is meaningful in that two models are compared for noting some implications about any significant difference of stock assessment and their potential strength and weakness.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.75-98
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• 2002

As a contribution to developing fishery stock assessment, optimum sustainable yield and its international standards such as MSY, MEY, and dynamic MEY for six recommended fisheries are developed using bio-economic models. For selecting the appropriate model, five models - Schaefer, Schnute, Walters and Hilborn, Fox, and CY&P models are tested in effort and catch data of six species. Surprisingly all the models except the CY&P model failed to satisfy statistical standards such as goodness-of-fitness and reliability. Generally, the CY&P model holds good fitness and statistically significant level for all of six fisheries. However, the CY&P model for squid, where the intrinsic growth rate is high, could not explain MSY, MEY, and dynamic MEY appropriately. This study makes a contribution to develop the modified model for the intrinsic growth rate of 1. The reformulated model represents the results reasonably even though the estimated equation has not good fitness. Although most of the CY&P models appear to have good fits and validated results for some cases, these models also seem to be quite sensitive to parameters which means a more stable model should be developed and data should carefully be handled. In particular biological and technical interactions such as multispecies, predator prey relationship, age structure and mortality should be taken into account. In addition, economic factors and fishing efforts such as price, cost, technical change and a reasonable function of fishing input should simultaneously be considered.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.25-35
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• 2006

Fisheries buyback programs have been implemented from 1994 in Korea, and its scale is estimated to have a value of 930 billion won, which is compounded for eight years since 1994. The paper evaluates the programs' economic and financial viability, and predicts efficient ways about how much and how long to reduce fisheries vessels so as to pursue a target biomass at MSY, For the specific purpose of the paper, aggregate fisheries stock dynamics and catch functions are specified and estimated by yearly catch and fishing effort data from 1970 to 2001, using ASPIC model and Schaefer's logistic production model. Results show that the fisheries stock in Korea has steadily declined since 1970, and that Korean fisheries overexploitation has steadily increased. Using cost-benefit analysis method, the buyback program holds the economic and financial feasibility even if the scale of buyback programs is not sufficient to avoid the downward trend in fisheries stock and harvest. The potential investment scale is predicted in several alternative scenarios using the sensitivity analysis method. The results recommend the annual reduction of 46%, 12% or 20% for the next one year, five years or three years, respectively so that the target biomass at MSY may be reached in 25 years.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.769-781
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• 2021

Given data about the annual fishery yield of the common squid Todarodes pacificus, and the catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data from multiple fisheries from 2000-2018, we applied a Bayesian state - space assessment model for the squid population. One of our objectives was to do a stock assessment, simultaneously incorporating CPUE data from the following three fisheries, (i) large trawl, (ii) jigger, and (iii) large purse seine, which comprised on average a year about 65% of all fisheries, allowing possible correlations to be reflected. Other objectives were to consider both observation and process errors and to apply objective priors of parameters. The estimated annual exploitable biomass was in the range of 3.50×10⁵ to 1.22×10⁶ MT, the estimated intrinsic growth rate was 1.02, and the estimated carrying capacity was 1,151,259 MT. Comparison with available results from stock assessment of independently analyzed single fisheries revealed a large difference from the estimated values, suggesting that stock assessment based on multiple fisheries should be performed.